West Virginia Governor's Race Too Close To Call: New Poll

[Lasher]

Source: Huffington Post

Tuesday’s special election for governor of West Virginia is becoming a nail-biter, with the Democrat holding a one-point lead in a recent poll.

Public Policy Polling released a poll Monday showing acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) leads his Republican opponent, Bill Maloney, 47 percent to 46 percent in what has become the country’s most competitive gubernatorial election of 2011. Tomblin led Maloney 46 percent to 40 percent a month ago. The election is being held to fill the remaining 14 months on the term started by Democrat Joe Manchin, who resigned to become a U.S. senator last year.

The race -- which could end the Democrats’ decade-long grip on the West Virginia governor’s mansion -- has gained national significance with involvement from both the Democratic and Republican governors associations. The Washington Post reports that the RGA has spent $3.4 million on the West Virginia election, while the DGA has spent $1.8 million. The RGA’s spending included commercials linking Tomblin to President Barack Obama’s health care policies, which have aired frequently on Washington, D.C. television stations in recent days.

Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/03/west-virginia-governor-election-2011_n_993093.html

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We have been bombarded here in WV with negative political ads, mostly from the GOP side. West Virginians tend to punish candidates who go overboard with such tactics, so let's hope this will work in Tomblin's favor. But a lot of Democrats are disillusioned and I worry that this could affect turnout on our side.

Related GD article here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x2048682

[Dawson Leery]

1. .............

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x2048682#2049114

[Lasher]

2. The majority of whites admitted to not voting for Obama in the 2008 primaries because he is black?

That's a new one one me. Will you please link to a credible source that supports this claim?

[FreeBillClinton]

3. You need more than a 1 point margin in the polls to prevent Republican fixing.

[Lasher]

5. I agree. I'm worried about this one.

I don't think Tomblin is going to win but I'd love to be wrong.

[BlueDemKev]

4. If Democratic voters in WV stay home.....

...then they deserve to get screwed by the tea-baggers.

[elleng]

6. See and hear some ads here in MD, too,

lots about incumbent(D) supporting Obama health care, 'costing businesses zillions ((my exaggeration)).'

[lynne]

8. Same ads running in VA, too - eom

[customerserviceguy]

7. Manchin felt he had to run very far to the right

in order to win the special election for Robert Byrd's seat. Yes, he won by a landslide, but I haven't seen any evidence that he's backed away from his positions taken about a year ago. Given the President's falling popularity since that time, I'd be really surprised if he came even a bit more towards the center.

Manchin's personal popularity is what will get him re-elected in 2012, I wonder if Tomblin has any of that mojo going for him?

[Vadem]

10. I despise him--Manchin!! Democrat, my ass! I hope he loses

by the largest margin ever!

He is a liar, and no Democrat! The pr**K!!!!

[BlueDemKev]

21. Would you rather have had John Raese?

Manchin was the best we could get from West Virginia. Granted, he's pro-life and pro-gun, but as long as he doesn't adopt a Zell Miller-attitude, he'll be okay.

[tropicanarose]

9. Here's hoping for a win in beautiful West Virginia. Ohh would that be sweet!

[Historic NY]

11. early voting & absentee ballot numbers (not results)

http://www.sos.wv.gov/news/topics/elections-candidates/Pages/ClickHereToSeeDailyUpdatedEarlyVotingand.aspx

[alp227]

12. WV has had Democratic governors always since 2001 and D US Senators since 1960

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_West_Virginia

and from 1965-2011 Democrats have governed WV for 31 of those years including 2001-present.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_West_Virginia

WV has voted for the Republican presidential candidate since 2000 but for the Democrat in 1988, 1992, and 1996. Both US senators from the state have been Democrats since 1960.

After the disastrous NY-9 house election last month I hope the Democrats can win again and bring some optimism up. But I've heard that even Democrats in this state get influenced by the coal/energy industry, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has raised awareness of the WV coal industry wanting to blow off mountaintops.

I wonder how the Democratic party could be so influential in WV, maybe because of miner unions?

[Lasher]

15. Yes, it's because much of the state has strong union support.

Another factor is that so many of us are poor and depend so much on social programs like Social Security and Medicaid. For issues other than these, the state can be pretty conservative.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

13. Maloney is funded by ex-Massey CEO Don Blankenship

The Don may have fled W.Va. after Upper Big Branch, but he still wants a hand in elections here. Maloney's campaign staff is made up of many of the crew who ran Blankenship's political operation and attempts to buy the legislature.
Tomblin, a rightwing Dem, has run a miserable, confused campaign and will likely lose tomorrow, giving WV it's own teabagging nut to join the ranks of Walker and Kasich.

[WVRICK13]

14. My Family Is Voting For Tomblin

I am taking my parents to the polls at 11:00 AM, they are horrified that Maloney could win.

[Lasher]

17. I and my family will join you.

Maybe fear of Maloney will get the Democrats out for Tomblin.

[ileus]

16. all that money spent for 1 years rule.

[Lasher]

18. That's a good point but these days a Republican Governor can do a lot of damage in a year.

Just look at other states. And most importantly, the winner runs as an incumbent a year from now.

I'm taking this election into account as I try to predict what's going to happen in the 2012 general election. It doesn't look pretty. Maloney should never have had a chance.

[Democat]

19. What does it say about Obama's chances when everyone is running away from him?

Seems like the top strategy to win an election lately is to associate the other guy with Obama. That's not a good sign.

[No Elephants]

20. Honestly, it's still too early to tell what Obama's chances are.

Counting out a sitting President while the nation is at war is not be done lightly. No war time incumbent President has failed to be re-elected in the U.S., ever (unless you stick to "Gore actually won.")

And we are still over a year out from election day.

Whether he will have coat tails is another issue.