STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 22 April

[ozymandius]

Thursday April 22, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 277
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 132 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 185 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 399
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 881
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 21, 2004

Dow... 10,317.27 +2.77 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq... 1,995.63 +17.00 (+0.86%)
S&P 500... 1,124.09 +5.94 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.42% +0.01 (+0.18%)
Gold future... 391.40 -6.90 (-1.73%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Maeve]

1. Initial Claims and March PPI figures both out today

Initial Claims were 360K last week and expected to fall to 335-340K. PPI is expected to rise from 0.1% up to between .3-.5%, but core PPI to remain steady at .1%

We shall see what we shall see. I think the job loss has been staunched somewhat (after the major bleed-off the past few years), but inflation....

[Maeve]

3. Here we go--first figures

8:29am 04/22/04 U.S. MARCH PPI UP 0.5% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 04/22/04 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 347,000

8:30am 04/22/04 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS FALL 9,000 TO 353,000
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/default.asp?refresh=on&siteid=mktw

Hmmm..."falls 9,000"? That means they upped last week's to 362K

[54anickel]

7. Must be that new math. n/t

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.95 Change -0.17 (-0.19%)

related articles:

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106020/content.asp?menu=market&dia=2242004

Key News

• China wants to move towards a floating currency system that would link the yuan to a basket of currencies rather than just the dollar, the foreign exchange chief said in remarks published on Thursday. (reuters)
• The Bank of Canada expects job growth over the next two years to be weaker than the robust gains of 2002 and 2003 and it worries that home prices are rising too fast, bank Governor David Dodge said on Wednesday. (reuters)
• Japan would continue to intervene in foreign exchange markets if it saw volatility and irregular moves threatening the stability of exchange rates, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said on Thursday. (reuters)
• Key reports due today (wsj):
8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Apr 17 Wk. Consensus: -20K. Previous: +30K.
10 a.m. DJ-BTM Business Barometer Apr 10 Wk. Previous: +0.1%.
4:30 p.m. Money Supply.

<snip>

The dollar is firm again this morning on the back of Greenspan testimony. The pound and Aussie are continuing to take it on the chin. But, and this is a very casual but, the metals have stabilized overnight. Bonds are up 5 ticks, gold is up $1.50 and silver is ahead ½ cent after a vicious 77 cent beating yesterday. On this alone, can we expect/suggest/surmise that we might get some type of oversold bounce in here on the pound and Aussie? Short answer is no. But it may be worth a look.

<snip>

Japan’s current account surplus is soaring. It rose an incredible 46.2% in February from a year earlier. We don’t contend that we trade in time frames appropriate to key off of Japan’s current account. But the current account does suggest the yen should be well supported at the least. I think if the yen can withstand the current dollar rally on the interest rate conversion flow, we will be in good shape. But, it may take a bit more patience than usual. But at 110 and above, our patience might evaporate quickly.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/2115/content.asp?menu=market&dia=2242004

Dollar Hits New Highs, Bonds May Recover Recent Losses

The dollar reached a new 4-month high of 1.1787 against the euro in Japan, while adding to its gains across the board. Japanese shares continued to recover from an earlier setback, but the dollar was also able to reach a new one month high of 109.71 yen as it eyes last month’s high of 112.25 following a move above key resistance at 109 yen. US equity futures were in the red, while bonds rose as the 10-year note yield fell back to 4.4% after a key reversal session on Wednesday where yeilds reached a new 9-month high of 4.48% but closed lower on the day. The reversal comes after yields rose for 20 of the past 25 sessions and marked a bearish divergence against RSI on a daily chart. Recall that we have been quite bullish on the dollar for the past few months and were insistent that when yields bottomed at 3.67% last month (the 61.8% retracement of the summer melt up in rates) that the dollar could piggyback higher. But if yeilds were to back down in the coming days the dollar could also come under pressure as it is now trading at key trendline resistance against the euro.

Greenspan Gambit To Ease Market Towards Rate Hikes
With little on the data front today traders will have to consider if the dollar has more running room after a steep pullback in yields yesterday following a sanguine assessment of inflation by Fed Chairman Greenspan. Trying to calm the markets will be Greenspan’s greatest concern this year as he tries to persuade traders that although deflation is no longer a concern, it does not mean inflation is on the horizon. Mr. Greenspan held to his strict academic version of CPI, which uses hedonic measuring and geometric weighting to underplay actual inflation. But the chairman’s spin on inflation was that statistics, although improved recently by hedonics and geometric weighting, may actually overstate the inflation problem. It is widely recognized that the emergency 1% Fed funds rate has fostered a giant bond carry trade amongst other reflation trades, including the dollar carry trade which focused on higher yielding currencies. Mr. Greenspan’s caution is twofold. First, an abrupt rise in rates would hurt the leveraged money center banks, which have made enormous profits this past year on the various reflation trades. Surely the Fed does not want a repeat of the 1994 situation where the market and the Fed both chased after each other, driving rates higher. Second, the main focus of the economic recovery heretofore has been driven by cheap credit that expanded the wealth effect but has left an edifice of debt in its wake. A sharp rise in rates would not only cool the housing refi bonanza but also threaten to undermine those who recently took on more borrowing. It should be noted that the normal cause and effect of Fed rate changes since WWII has been to raise rates to curb excessive growth and then to ease and let the economy breath again. This time around has been the complete opposite, with a sharp reduction in rates not stimulating business investment, but instead household consumption and the mortgage financing market. Businesses have also refinanced their long-term debt through new bond issues at attractive rates but have not sought out new funding for expansion. Meanwhile, homeowner equity stands at a record low, indicating the amount of leverage being used in the housing market. Only a slow move to raising rates would not threaten to undermine this unusual recovery process.

...more...

[54anickel]

6. "Unusual recover process" HA! Ya think? Interesting spin on rate

hikes in this article.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/ackerman042104.html

snip>

'Rate Hike' an Idle Threat

Which brings me back to the theory that Sheryl F. finds so distressing - that "Greenspan will increase rates, making the dollar strong and pushing metal shares down in the short- to mid-term." We should ask, what possible incentive does the central bank have to push interest rates higher in order to strengthen the dollar? For if either or both of those objectives is achieved it will tighten the noose around virtually all who owe dollars (and I mean mortgage borrowers in particular, although certainly not exclusively). Does the Fed risk toppling a global debt pyramid just to beat down the rising cost of milk, eggs, college tuition and fuel in the U.S.? I should think not.

Mr. Greenspan has flatly stated that deflation is no longer a concern, but let me give you the straight skinny: No matter what he says, it is his ONLY concern. We can also be certain that he would much rather talk about raising interest rates than actually raise them. Count on it. And don't allow yourself to be distracted by recent increases in the prices of consumer goods and services; for they are no more than microscopic blips compared to a deflationary black hole that threatens to implode if even somewhat higher rates are applied to an estimated $150 trillion of very thinly collateralized derivatives. There is simply no alternative logic, and anyone who professes otherwise is either not in command of the facts, or a self-aggrandizing huckster like Larry Kudlow.

Concerning the supposed threat of inflation, we are all so deeply in hock that we should be praying for it, not hoping Mr. Greenspan will "fight" it. And if $50 crude and $3 at the pump should come to pass, do not mistake that for "inflation" either, since, rather than being passed along through the economy as inflation was during the 1970s, it will only stimulate a tsunami of deflationary bankruptcies in industries such as trucking, air transportation and automobiles. And if you do not expect your wages to rise along with the price of gas, milk, eggs, tuition and medical care, then those price increases will not be inflationary for you, but rather deflationary to the extent they will cause you to curtail the consumption of other things. It thus follows that, in a macroeconomic perspective, "inflation" itself has become deflationary.

[ozymandius]

4. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Darkest Before the Dawn

It’s late Tuesday night and I decided I better start writing my WrapUp for tomorrow because I won’t have much time to think about writing while the markets are open. I know myself pretty well, and I will be looking for some great values in the precious metals sector as the mining stocks sell-off. I will also be re-evaluating my strategies for shorting stocks and bonds with confirmation we have seen the top. The stock market closed Tuesday in a nasty way going out near the lows, and bonds have been under tremendous pressure with the threat of rising interest rates. We will also have to see how the market reacts to Mr. Greenspan’s comments as he testifies before the Joint Economic Committee. Inflation is here folks, despite the establishment party line that all is OK in La La Land! For the most part I am disgusted with the propaganda I am hearing from the financial media, so I plan on staying away from it tomorrow. It is WAY obvious we live in a time of managed markets and managed media. I will be focused on the big picture for stocks and bonds and looking for gold and silver shares to get trashed, creating some great entry points for trading positions.

<cut>
Manage Fear with Perspective

This is not a time to be consumed with fear if you are invested in gold and silver stocks. I expect this take-down to be sharp from a price perspective, but short in duration. Hopefully you have some high quality core holdings that will weather the storm better than most and are prepared to buy some of the great bargains. If you believe in the buy low—sell high method to profits, this should prove to be a good buying opportunity. Cash management also comes into play to minimize losses, but if you’ve been riding out this correction since January, now is not the time to panic. This is precisely why I suggested an increase in cash. If we are fully invested, the best we can do is ride it out or sell our gold and silver stocks at these low prices. The best investors have proven to be contrarians; it’s just difficult to manage the fear and greed emotions as they play games with our minds.

<cut>

Another View of Relative Values

It’s fascinating for me to isolate the period 1980 – 1985 in contrast to where things are today. I’m sure most of you can remember twenty years back. Maybe you were in your early school years, or senior enough to remember it vividly like me. It just wasn’t all that long ago! The Dow was safely below 1,000 and you could buy the index with one ounce of gold. Through the ‘80-‘85 window, you can throw out the blow-off top for gold at $850 an ounce and use the low of $290 and the high of about $510 per ounce. It’s roughly $400 today. Please tell me how many things you can buy today that cost the same amount twenty years ago. You could get a nice car for about ten grand back then, and today you would spend twenty to thirty thousand for the same ride. How about a house…big difference! When my wife and I bought our first house in the Eighties we were paying a 13% mortgage rate, while today rates are below 6%. Gold and silver are still way undervalued when compared to other assets twenty years ago.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

5. I prefer not to disappear.

So I bid you all farewell for now. I may be back later this morning. The little guy needs a lift to daycare.

all things good,

Ozy :hi: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. March PPI up 0.5% on food prices

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={F03C48A8-EC1A-4703-B0A7-888C7FA168F2}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Wholesale food prices jumped in March, driving the U.S. producer price index up 0.5 percent, the Labor Department estimated Thursday. Core producer prices for finished goods (excluding food and energy goods) rose 0.2 percent. The increases in the PPI and the core PPI matched expectations of Wall Street economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch. The PPI and the core PPI had risen 0.1 percent in February. Finished food prices rose 1.5 percent in March, the most in five months. Intermediate-goods prices rose 0.7 percent after rising 0.9 percent in February. The core intermediate goods PPI increased 0.6 percent. Prices of crude goods increased 0.7 percent in March after soaring more than 2 percent in five of the past six months.

(short newsblurb)

[Maeve]

12. This is no surprise to those of us who actually shop

Seriously, I think a lot of the talking heads are as clueless about the stores as Bush Senior was when he marvelled at the scanner. It's absolutely getting harder to "put food on your families"....

[54anickel]

9. A couple of articles for the tinfoil hat.

I came across this first one while searching for that article on Russia deciding to divest their cash reserves into 1/2 US$ and 1/2 Euro.

Perhaps some of our European DUers can add some perspective to this one. :shrug:

The United States , NATO and the European army
http://www.anti-imperialism.net/lai/texte.php?language_id=3§ion=CMBC&object_id=22573


This is a bit "gold-buggy" but very interesting. Read the linked article "THE Euro vs Dollar CURRENCY WAR MONITOR" for a truly chilling experience. :scared: :tinfoilhat:

http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/ftaa.html

[ze_dscherman]

16. The United States , NATO and the European army

I did a quick read-thru, and I do think it is an excellent analysis of the current political/economic/military ambitions of the EU - from a leftist viewpoint, of course. The current bunch of politicians is moving away from a "Fortress Europe" to a much more offensive view, mimicking the U.S. However, this may change soon, as the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq will likely worsen much more, and Realpolitik will see that messing with nation building by military means just does not work.

The economic rivalry between the U.S. and Europe is growing with the importance of the Euro. Although the U.S. economy currently seems to be growing with a faster pace, and although Europe has many problems of it's own, I still think the much more cautious and less energy hungry European industry may be more stable on the longer term.

Very much depends on the integration of the new EU members in the East. Personally, I think, this will be rather a economic burden in many cases. Not even rich Germany was able to rebuild the former GDR in more than a decade. This may become our own imperial overstretch.

[54anickel]

20. Thanks Ze_dscherman - one more question - what do you make of

this push by the IMF for the ECB to lower interest rates? Do you think it's needed by the economy, or it smoke and mirrors?

[ze_dscherman]

26. Hard to tell

The Eurozone has tried to abstain from the "Easy Money" politics of the U.S. Interest rates are higher than in the U.S., but still on a very low level. Monetary policies are much stricter. This has been rewarded with a high flying Euro despite apparent economic weakness.

Lower interest rates in the U.S. and higher ones in Euroland would very probably benefit the Dollar against the Euro, thus taking off pressure both from the U.S. and Eurozone economy in the short term (exports from EU to the U.S. being stronger than vice versa). Surely, it would also direct more money into the U.S., thus helping to ease their trade deficit.

It could well fuel the European economy - but it would only create a bubble if the international economy is not recovering also. And given the enormous structural flaws in the markets that allow the U.S. to heap personal debt on company debt on government debt with the aid of low rates, I doubt it would be a wise idea for the EU to do the same.

But that's not the opinion of an expert, just my 2 Eurocents.

[UpInArms]

10. market numbers at 9:42 EST

Dow 10,313.22 -4.05 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,993.15 -2.48 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,122.37 -1.72 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.403% -0.020

Watch out for those pointie things!

[54anickel]

11. Heh, 9:48 and an about face

Dow 10,326.64 +9.37 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,000.76 +5.13 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,124.55 +0.46 (+0.04%)
30-yr Bond 5.221% -0.010

NYSE Volume 105,591,000
Nasdaq Volume 199,951,000

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Looks like the cash market will open in negative territory as selling persists in the futures trade... Traders continue to be put off by the prospect of rising interest rates - the thought of which was exacerbated this morning by the increase in the March PPI.
8:59AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Sluggish trade continues in the future trade, indicating a lower open for the indices... Buyers remain in a standoffish mood, none too impressed by today's earnings or economic reports... Things in the treasury market are a bit better, where bonds have gotten a lift from today's economic data.

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Futures indications weaken off the worse than expected weekly initial claims data, and the higher than expected March PPI data... S&P futures drop 1 point in response and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 1 point as well... As a result, expectations look intact for a lower open as traders remain fixated on the rising interest rate environment - and put today's and last night's mostly encouraging earnings reports on the backburner.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Not much enthusiasm in the futures trade as buyers have been deterred by a handful of earnings reports last night... Tech is relatively weak following KLAC's worrisome orders guidance for Q4 (June) and JNPR's margin outlook for Q2 (June)... As a result, the cash market should open on a negative note.

[Maeve]

13. Julie said she doesn't play with sharp, pointy things....

She might want to beware of Wall Street today; looks like another spiky session in store!

Up, down, turnaround....

Dow 10,322.30 +5.03 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,999.45 +3.82 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,124.15 +0.06 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.401% -0.022

[54anickel]

14. Quite the fickle group this AM, aren't they -

Treasuries Rise on Jobs, Inflation Data
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040422/markets_bonds_3.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices crept higher on Thursday after data on U.S. jobs proved less upbeat than expected while inflation at the producer level was not as high as some had feared.
The mix suggested improvement in the labor market was still patchy and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was right on Wednesday to play down the risk of a spurt in inflation, at least at the consumer level.

"Even though the PPI has accelerated, it hasn't passed over to consumer goods prices and it hasn't passed through into wage gains," said Cary Leahey, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. "So as long as you have a great story on labor costs with productivity, you can't really have an inflation story."

That view helped the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR) edge up 5/32 in price, dragging its yield to 4.41 percent from 4.43 percent late on Wednesday.

more...

[JNelson6563]

17. "You'll put your eye out with that thing!"

Isn't it funny how many "mom" sayings can also be applied to Wall Street?

Looks like a possibly painful day on the Street. I hope nobody's wearing their good school clothes to play there today. :-)

Local over-throw efforts today with mom duties interspersed to keep it fresh. Will meet our US House candidate tonight.

Hope it's all good with you Marketeers. Good to see on your Thursday visit as always Maeve! :hi:

Julie

[54anickel]

15. War costs to Pentagon approach $5bn a month

http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/040421/1079420518308_1.html

snip>

General Richard Myers, the US's top uniformed commander, told a congressional hearing the decision to keep an extra 20,000 soldiers in Iraq through the summer would probably cost an extra $700m over the next three months.

"The increased operation tempo keeping 20,000 an additional tour in Iraq is going to cost us more money," Gen Myers said. Although the rise in US troop numbers - from 115,000 to 135,000 - is only authorised through June, Gen Myers hinted those levels could be retained for several more months, since US forces will need to fill in for departing Spanish troops, who had commanded the international division in south-central Iraq.

Gen Myers said the increased spending meant the Pentagon was facing a $4bn shortfall in war funding, but added officials were working on budgeting - possibly deferring acquisition programmes that are not essential - to ensure adequate cash through to the end of the fiscal year, which finishes on September 30.

The new estimates make it more likely that the White House may have to return to Congress for an emergency war spending bill before the November elections. Administration officials had hoped to wait until January to seek another Iraq appropriation, and Scott McClellan, White House spokesman, insisted on Wednesday that "current funding levels are more than adequate at this time".

snip>

Gen Myers said wear and tear on weaponry and transport - particularly helicopters - was also contributing to higher costs......

more...

Guess being shot down is now considered a part of normal wear and tear. Wonder how that affects the depreciation schedule. :silly:

[Maeve]

18. 10:26 and all red again

Dow 10,301.79 -15.48 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,995.16 -0.47 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,122.25 -1.84 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.395% -0.028


Nope, not shaping up to be a pretty day...subject to change if the "managed market" folk decide it should, of course! :tinfoilhat:

[UpInArms]

19. 11:07 EST and all is coming up roses!

Dow 10,363.11 +45.84 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,011.27 +15.64 (+0.78%)
S&P 500 1,129.19 +5.10 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.405% -0.018

[UpInArms]

21. 11:17 EST and a side of inanity

Dow 10,388.17 +70.90 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,018.23 +22.60 (+1.13%)
S&P 500 1,132.42 +8.33 (+0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.407% -0.016

11:00AM: Morning's choppy trade continues as, after slipping into negative territory, the major indices move to their best levels of the session... The breadth figures reflect this, with advancers favoring decliners by a slight margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq... The market is still recovering from Tuesday's brutal late-day sell-off that sent the averages 1.2-2.1% lower... The recognition that interest rates - as suggested by Greenspan during his two-day Congressional testimony - are only on their way up has been a bone of contention for the market...

Although this is still not a surprise, it is still hard to adjust to considering the previous environment (low interest rates/virtually no inflation) that was so favorable to stocks... As it stands now, the current tightening cycle could last a while as the Fed has indicated it plans to raise rates in a slow fashion...NYSE Adv/Dec 1703/1249, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1540/1257

[UpInArms]

22. Barrick profit slips (derivatives)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040422.wbarrick0422/BNStory/Business/

Barrick Gold Corp. said Thursday first-quarter earnings fell slightly despite stronger gold prices and a solid operating performance as a $10- million (U.S.) derivative loss hit the gold miner's bottom line.

For the three months ended March 31, Toronto- based Barrick posted net income of $26-million or 5 cents, down from $29-million or 5 cents a year earlier.

The latest quarter included a $10-million non- hedge derivative loss. The year-earlier period, meanwhile, included a comparable gain of $38- million, offset by a $17-million charge related to accounting changes.

...more...

Barrick - Peter Munk - GHW Bush - :puke:

[54anickel]

33. Gold price drop may prompt re-think on hedging

:eyes:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040421/minerals_australia_gold_2.html

PERTH, Australia, April 21 (Reuters) - A drop in the price of gold, triggered by U.S. dollar gains ahead of likely interest rate rises, could prompt some mining houses to return to hedging -- trying to protect themselves against sharp price moves.

A more than $5 an ounce fall in the spot gold price on Wednesday, to seven-week lows, cast a pall over the international Paydirt mine conference attended by gold mining executives.

snip>

"We are less likely to take a slugging from the gold price since 60 percent of our production is hedged," said Neal Edwards, chief geologist for Dragon Mining NL (Australia:DRA.AX - News), which mines gold in Sweden.

snip>

Consultants Gold Fields Minerals Sevices had forecast that hedging would decline by as much as 13 million ounces between now and the end of this year.

more...

[UpInArms]

23. Numbers at 12:00 EST and more inanity

Dow 10,431.74 +114.47 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 2,023.32 +27.69 (+1.39%)
S&P 500 1,136.40 +12.31 (+1.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.410% -0.013

11:30AM: Stocks catch a bid and zoom straight higher in a broad-based buying drive... The Nasdaq has handily cleared its 50-day simple moving average at 2011, and the S&P 500 is hovering around its own 50-day moving average (at 1033)... It is hard to say what exactly spurred the rapid advance, but it is fair to say that buy programs and short-covering probably had their hand in this... The market's ability to bounce back from its initial losses prompted traders to cover their positions, which helped launch the indices to new highs...

Today's batch of solid earnings reports has been a supportive factor in keeping the indices at higher levels...NYSE Adv/Dec 2034/1013, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1777/1077

[54anickel]

24. I'd have guessed short coverings, but maybe all those great earnings

reports are kicking in. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

25. noon blather

12:00PM: After lingering on the sidelines for most of the morning, buyers have pounced on stocks and driven them to new highs for the week... Buy programs and short-covering likely combined for a speedy advance that sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq above their 50- day simple moving averages...Homebuilding, basic material, health care, and aerospace have been at the helm of the recovery effort, and have offset a bit of selling in semiconductor... The group has been one of the only weak links with KLA-Tencor's (KLAC 46.80 -1.52) losses holding it back...

[Maeve]

27. "Buy programs"---and someone gets paid to write this??

Sorry...just one of those "Duh, d'ya THINK???" moments.

[54anickel]

28. 1:41 update

Dow 10,481.92 +164.65 (+1.60%)
Nasdaq 2,034.34 +38.71 (+1.94%)
S&P 500 1,142.08 +17.99 (+1.60%)
10-yr Bond 4.396% -0.027
30-yr Bond 5.206% -0.025

NYSE Volume 1,110,735,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,356,105,000

1:30PM: Blue chip averages stick to the top of their trading ranges, while the Nasdaq charges to new highs... The Composite was the laggard in the early action, but now has done an about-face and is the strongest index of the major averages... A positive turn in the semiconductor group has been a major reason for this, and has allowed the Nasdaq to steadily accelerate under the auspices of gains in biotech, internet, computer hardware, software, and wireless service... As of now, the Nasdaq is starting to approach its early April highs... SOX +1.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 2330/877, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1982/1080
1:00PM: Indices hold up around their highs of the day as conviction on the part of buyers remains strong... Up volume leads down volume by a 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq, and breadth figures also overwhelmingly favor the bulls... Within the Dow, 24 out of the 30 components are showing gains as some of the winners of the past week - namely, defensive issues - have traded lower...

Coca-cola (KO 51-37 -0.76) is one of the losers thanks to a Morgan Stanely downgrade to Equal Weight from Overweight following news that Gillette (G 38.70 +0.43) CEO Jim Kilts has pulled himself out of the running for CEO... Firm believes this leaves Coke with a short list of candidates...NYSE Adv/Dec 2344/851, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2018/1018

[trogdor]

29. WTF is going on?

+165 for the day? +50 the past hour? What happened?

[Frodo]

30. I'll second that Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.

I've been away all day and come back to find big jumps in the numbers.

What's the buzz? Or is it just "one of those days"?

[UpInArms]

31. Goldilocks theory

Meanspin got it just right

:puke:

[Maeve]

32. At least...that's what they WANT you to believe!

:D

If you think about it one way, "program buys" means some of the boys had a set figure they thought the market would go down and now they're sending it back up (although watch for some profit-taking later today or this week)

[KoKo]

38. One of the "Financial Sense" articles said to look for this. Making a

"broad top" set to go down later. Perhaps this is the "broad top" before the big plunge. Or, it could last awhile longer.

He also said the public is still buying on dips because they think that stategy will work forever. Either way, it might be tough to keep this going much longer given how fast Iraq is coming apart and the layoff announcements keep coming.

:shrug:

[54anickel]

40. I dunno, seems like the bond market is just blowing him off, I mean

shouldn't they be unwinding with this nice heads up forewarning, or am I getting this whole up is down and down is up deal messed up again? Got stocks, bonds and gold all going up at the same time again. :shrug:

[54anickel]

34. 2:28 update

Dow 10,486.04 +168.77 (+1.64%)
Nasdaq 2,035.26 +39.63 (+1.99%)
S&P 500 1,141.82 +17.73 (+1.58%)
10-yr Bond 4.397% -0.026
30-yr Bond 5.212% -0.019

NYSE Volume 1,275,803,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,538,617,000

2:05PM: The bulls won't let up as stocks surge to even higher levels for the session... Participation in the uptick is almost universal across all industry groups, with the lone exception being department store... The barrage of strong earnings releases - this on one of the heaviest reporting days of the March quarter earnings season - has finally translated into substantial gains for the indices... Generally, most earnings seasons come with rallies if most companies top estimates...
This earnings season has been unlike any other as upside preannouncements have not prompted buying, and actual earnings numbers - until today - have been swept under the rug...NYSE Adv/Dec 2420/798, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2077/1015

[54anickel]

35. FOREX-Dollar dips vs euro as U.S. data weighs

http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/funds/newswire/2004/04/22/rtr1343180.html

NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened against the euro on Thursday as largely benign U.S. wholesale and softer than expected jobless claims data tempered expectations of a near-term interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, analysts said.

Low official U.S. interest rates of 1 percent have been a negative factor for the dollar. Its recent rally has been tied to expectations of higher interest rates, which tend to boost yields on U.S. assets, enhancing their appeal to global investors.

"Just looking at the broad complexion of the data, the numbers didn't really help the dollar's cause today," said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp in New York.

snip>

POSITIVE TREND STILL IN PLACE

Analysts, however, said the dollar's positive trend is still in place given that both of Thursday's U.S. economic reports U.S. data reports are second-tier numbers.

"We're still ranging and the trend is still for a strong dollar," said Ralph DelZenero, first vice president of foreign exchange Bank One in Chicago.

"We also have a stronger equity markets today. And interest rates are starting to look more and more attractive from a global basis. Overall, I think the markets are still digesting the (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan testimony," he added.

snip>

Analysts are also focusing on a Group of Seven meeting of finance officials from industrial nations this weekend in Washington, D.C., who will likely touch on foreign exchange issues.

[54anickel]

36. NZ, Australia poised to make Asia breakthrough

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/businessstorydisplay.cfm?storyID=3562226&thesection=business&thesubsection=trade&thesecondsubsection=general

SINGAPORE - New Zealand and Australia may finally strike a free-trade deal with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).

After years of courting the 10-member grouping and being stymied by Malaysian leader Mahathir Mohamed, Asean economic ministers plan to invite Prime Minister Helen Clark and her Australian counterpart, John Howard, to a leaders' meeting in Laos in November to discuss the plan.

Such a move would link Australia and New Zealand, who have shared a free-trade agreement for two decades, with countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei.

And with Asean already discussing free-trade deals with China, India and Japan, the move could lock Australia and New Zealand into an Asian free-trading bloc.

more...

[54anickel]

37. U.S. stocks in biggest rally in nearly a month

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040422/774a57490412c0c74628cc4234b9d475_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks traded broadly and actively higher Thursday, with the major market indexes producing their biggest gains in nearly a month, as a swarm of strong quarterly earnings reports and raised outlooks drew investors' attention away from data showing a spike up in inflation.

Blue chips were bolstered by rallies in Caterpillar and Boeing, which overwhelmed weakness in Coca-Cola, while the technology sector got a boost from surges in Qualcomm and eBay.

"The market decided to stop worrying about inflation for the moment and interpreted the latest economic data in a positive way," said John Hughes, market analyst at Shields & Co. "Some inflation can be good for earnings, since it helps restore pricing power to companies."

He added, however, that the market is still in a "transitional environment," and will likely continue to consolidate within a narrow range over the near term.

snip>

Meanwhile, Ed Peters, chief investment officer at Pan Agora, said that while the investors continue to worry about whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates within the next few months, he doesn't anticipate "any sort of change in policy by the Fed until after the election and probably not even until early next year.".

[54anickel]

39. Greenspan Isn't Worried -- Yet

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/040422/nf200404228094_db038_1.html

snip>
PLENTY OF SLACK. Why do they believe the fundamentals argue against sustained inflation? Even after the spurt of growth over the past nine months, the economy is awash in excess capacity that limits companies' ability to hike prices. The Fed reported on Apr. 16 that capacity utilization at industrial companies actually slipped, from 76.7% in February to 76.5% in March -- still comfortably below the long-term average of more than 80%.

There's plenty of slack in the jobs market as well, even after the 308,000 increase in payrolls in March. Sure, the unemployment rate has fallen from a high of 6.3% last June to 5.7% now. But much of that slip represents discouraged workers dropping out of the workforce. If labor-force participation were at the levels it averaged in the '90s, the unemployment rate would be over 7%, according to International Strategy & Investment Group Inc., a New York institutional broker.

Strong productivity growth also continues to help control labor costs. Chris Varvares, president of consultant Macroeconomic Advisers, reckons that unit labor costs fell at a year-over-year rate of 1.6% or more in the first quarter, thanks to increases in efficiency.

FAT MARGINS. Together, these factors should restrain salary increases. That's crucial to preventing an inflationary wage-price spiral. Since labor accounts for about 70% of business expenses, a rise there would be far worse for the economy than the price hikes now seen in commodity markets or consumer goods.

snip>

RELUCTANT PARTY POOPER. Critics also charge that the Fed is far too optimistic about productivity growth. Much of the recent spurt in productivity was temporary, in response to savage cost-cutting that can't last, they say. As productivity falls, labor costs and inflation will rise. What's more, they argue, there is far less slack in the economy than the Fed maintains. Since it takes a year or more for Fed rate hikes to affect the economy, Greenspan & Co. have already waited too late to move, they say.

It's a time-honored maxim in monetary-policy circles: A central banker's job is to take away the punch bowl just when the party gets going. Greenspan has always been reluctant to play that role. In 1987 and 1998, he opened the taps in response to financial crises, but he then let the elixir of easy money flow too long, leading in the first case to faster inflation and in the second to a stock market bubble. And in 1994, the partygoers got so wild that he had to clobber them with a doubling of interest rates, causing havoc in the bond market.

[54anickel]

41. Shrub may accomplish what my "buddy" Mahathir couldn't do.

http://www.asianews.it/view.php?l=en&art=660

Putrajaya (AsiaNews/AP) – The Organization of the Islamic Conferecne (OIC), gathering for an emergency meeting today in Malaysia, has asked the UN to pass a resolution for new peace mission in Iraq, as it has the support of the entire international community.

By way of the new resolution, even Islamic countries can send troops. Countries like Pakistan and Malaysia have already expressed their intention to send peace keeping forces to Iraq should the UN decide to return to Baghdad.

snip>

At the opening of the meeting Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi underscored the deteriorating situation in Iraq and Palestine in that it jeopardized the stability of the entire Middle East.

Malaysian foreign minister, Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar, emphasized the need for unity and cohesion among Islamic nations. “By not doing so, we will continue to be marginalized and pushed aside…Other countries will decide our future.”

[54anickel]

42. U.S. rate hike prospects may carry risk for dollar

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/04/22/rtr1343224.html

CHICAGO, April 22 (Reuters) - Traders agree that prospects for higher, yield-boosting U.S. interest rates are bullish for the dollar, but analysts warn that any unexpectedly steep rate increases could threaten stocks, bonds and the U.S. currency.

Markets are betting that official U.S. interest rates, now at a 1958 low of 1 percent, will rise by the end of August.

The prospect of rising rates is supporting the U.S. currency by making dollar deposits more attractive to foreign investors. Yet how far and how fast rates actually rise are critical considerations for the dollar's fortunes.

Interest rate hikes blunt business growth and raise yields on U.S. debt. Since foreign investors must buy dollars to purchase U.S. stocks and bonds, a large enough rate hike conceivably could torpedo U.S. equities, debt and the dollar.

more...

[54anickel]

43. Closing numbers and da yada

Dow 10,461.20 +143.93 (+1.40%)
Nasdaq 2,032.91 +37.28 (+1.87%)
S&P 500 1,139.93 +15.84 (+1.41%)
10-yr Bond 4.371% -0.052
30-yr Bond 5.190% -0.041

NYSE Volume 1,825,789,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,155,642,000

Close: A stealth rally swept the market today as buyers came out of the woodwork around 11 ET and bid stocks steadily higher into the close...
A variety of reasons can explain the uptick, but the most logical are (1) a combination of short covering and buy programs when the indices demonstrated resiliency at early technical levels (e.g. the 50-day simple moving averages for the Nasdaq and S&P 500), (2) a slew of better than expected earnings reports (Altera, eBay, Merck, Qualcomm, Starbucks) that lent credibility to the recovery in corporate American, and (3) the idea that rising interest rates are well understood by most market participants, and the recognition that the Fed will raise slowly when it does start tightening... As a result, the market rallied across just about every industry group with only a handful (casino, department store) bucking the trend... Breadth figures were extremely favorable and up volume led down volume by a 4-to-1 margin at the NYSE... Economic data were mixed across the board and had little impact on trading...

Weekly initial claims were worse than expected at 353K versus the consensus estimate of 340K, and March PPI was stronger than expected at 0.5% versus the consensus estimate of 0.3%....