Obama struggling in Ohio

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: Public Policy Polling

If Barack Obama had to stand for reelection today he would likely lose Ohio...as long as the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney.

Obama's approval rating in the state is only 43%, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. He's very unpopular with independents at 39/57, and even with Democrats his approval has dropped to a worrisome low of 73%. He's in particularly bad shape with white voters (37/57) and men (38/58).

A head to head between Obama and Romney would be a tie at this point, with each candidate getting 46%. Those numbers are worse for Obama than they appear to be on the surface though- just 18% of the undecided voters approve of the job he's doing. When those folks make up their minds they're not very likely to end up in Obama's camp. Romney has an 11 point advantage with independents and pulls 12% of the Democratic vote while losing only 4% of Republicans to Obama.

Also within striking range of Obama is Herman Cain, who trails the President only 48/45. Cain is the only one of the Republicans with a positive favorability rating in Ohio, at 41/37. Independents see him favorably by a 50/23 margin and 18% of Democrats with a positive opinion of him is higher than for any of the other GOP candidates. Cain's long term viability for the Republican nomination still seems questionable despite his current poll standing, but these numbers suggest that he might actually be a viable general election candidate.

Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/obama-struggling-in-ohio.html

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PPP is a Democratic polling firm.

[AngryAmish]

1. He needs to get in there and start crushing people

Better to be feared than loved.

[goforit]

40. As another Bush-lite manchurian candidate, the door will be hitting him on the way out

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[WildEyedLiberal]

5. Well, that kind of crap is sure to get their votes

:eyes: Ohio and the rest of the rust belt has been decimated by the recession. Of course they're pissed off. But with "liberals" like you calling them ignorant fools, why the fuck should they listen to what we have to say?

Hopefully Obama is smarter than you and will campaign his butt off in that state instead of just ceding it to the Republicans, which is why we lose elections.

[peace13]

9. Do you live in OHio?

The ignorant fools will not read this on DU. I live in Ohio. Worked my butt off for Obama. Opened my home up to his campaign. That does not change the fact that Ohio has a tea bag gov, Liz Cheeney is here campaigning against the people as I type. Go figure. I am serious when I say.....Do Not Count On Ohio in 2012!

Unless you are an ignorant fool I wouldn't worry and I certainly wouldn't stand up for them here! But you go right ahead.

[JDPriestly]

22. I campaigned for Obama in Southern Ohio in 2008.

And I talk to people there frequently.

I agree with you. Independents in Ohio voted for Obama because he thought that he would protect Social Security, Medicare and their homes and come down hard, really hard on Wall Street and the bankers.

He is wishy-washy on Social Security and Medicare and hasn't done much of anything that matters about Wall Street and the bankers unless you consider hiring their picks as his top advisers something that matters. I, and most Ohians don't.

So, Obama has to show unequivocally what side he is on -- the people's or the bankers -- if he wants to win Ohio.

He could have really sold the fact that he saved a few jobs in the auto industry because that is big in Ohio, but his failures in the rest of the economy and his cozying up to the bankers sort of overshadowed that one success.

[YvonneCa]

29. He could also have sold the fact that...

...he understands their voting disenfranchisement in the past, and share a plan to fix it. JMHO.

[peace13]

30. Good points. In addition...

folks here may not like to hear it but there is a huge number of folks in Ohio who would vote for Satan if he were a rethug. It isn't a thinking thing it's just what they and their families have always done. It is hard to believe.

Also we have a huge number of folks on SS and Medicare and as good little teabaggers do, they lay on their benefits and deny any new way of thinking that could lift everyone up.

Issue 2 regarding union rights is a good example. Many rethug school teachers love themselves some * but when they were at risk of loosing their health insurance and fair practice at work they finally woke up. The still wouldn't want the self employed to be able to purchase health insurance on the fair market but they can recognize what they don't want for themselves.

In 2012 it will once again be too close to call and that will leave the tea-bagging gov and SOS with an open door to Rove and his fancy counting machine. With Liz Cheney here already stumping to remove the union rights of Ohioans I have no doubt that the network for the fix is in.

I stand by my words that 2012 must not depend on Ohio.

[WildEyedLiberal]

37. So does that make the people of Ohio "ignorant fools," or does it make them disillusioned?

And can you blame them for feeling disillusioned?

[Nuclear Unicorn]

10. It's kind of like when people scream, "Hey! You dirty hippies!"

And then go on to tell you something but you never know what it was because you already tuned them out.

[peace13]

32. I worked for Kerry and stood at the State House demanding recounts.

We watched while an election was stolen right before our eyes. We worked like dogs for Obama. We were blessed with a tea bagger Governor who has blasted us back to the 60's. I bet if you talk to the folks in Ohio who are really paying attention you will find a lot of frustration. Life in Ohio is not easy...expecially if you are a thinking person. I am sorry that I called our unthinking citizens a less than flattering name. The frustration is real here. I get to many parts of this state with my Obama bumper sticker and I can say that there are darn few folks who would give you a thumbs up. That is just the way it is and we should not depend on this state to go for Obama....especially since four years ago our SOS deemed our election machines 'easily hackable' and left office without fixing or dismantling the system. Peace, Kim

[peace13]

31. Interesting that you can swear at me in a response.

And the rule book doesn't apply! Good of you to educate me on life in Ohio as I am a life long resident. Really, it is not only the rust belt but the IT graveyard. Times may be hard but that does not change a way of thinking. Wishing just don't make it so.

I have no doubt that Obama is smarter than me. Thankfully neither one of us are running his campaign because what I lack in patience you lack in charm. Have a good one and really, no need to come crashing down on a person.

[WildEyedLiberal]

38. Then maybe you should dig up some sympathy for people instead of calling them ignorant fools

If you live in Ohio, you know what the recession has done to the economy there.

And honestly, I just have to laugh when someone feigns umbrage about swearing. Last time I checked, DU isn't church. I am not impressed with the pearl-clutching and tut-tutting about the word "fuck."

I hope you volunteer for Obama. I really do. But before you do, you might consider checking your unbridled contempt for the people of your state, because trust me, people can smell contempt from a mile away.

[RZM]

3. I agree it's going to be tough for him in Ohio in 2012

FWIW, I knew Kerry would have a difficult time pulling it out here in 2004 as well. Though some people still believe that the Bush team stole it in 2004, as a lifelong resident of the state I find those theories very difficult to believe. Ohio is a swing state, but it also has deep Republican roots.

Still, the election will not be held today and Kasich isn't doing the Republicans any favors with his anti-collective bargaining stance. It's probably going to be a toss-up in 2012.

[YvonneCa]

19. Could you elaborate on...

...on why you find those theories difficult to believe? I'm just curious, because I am one who tends to believe it was stolen in 2004. I also agree with you that it has deep Republican roots. :)

[RZM]

25. Just my sense I guess

Conversations with friends, family, and co-workers caused me to be fairly pessimistic before the election. I knew it would be very close, but I thought Bush had the slightest of edges (incumbency, being a 'war president,' his constructed persona being a bit more amenable to your average Ohioan than Kerry's 'Boston Brahmin' status).

My mother lives in a heavily Republican area. She voted Kerry, but told me the polls were busier than she's ever seen them before and all the poll workers there were saying the same thing. I thought that was a bad sign right away, though no doubt some Dem-leaning polling places were busy too. I always vote at the crack of dawn to beat the crowds and there was nobody there when I voted that morning. In 2008 I also voted at the crack of dawn (in a more Dem-leaning area) and had to wait about 30 minutes.

I don't have all the answers, just conclusions I have drawn from my own experience and armchair analysis. I'm not ruling out the shenanigans, I just find them hard to believe, like I said.

[YvonneCa]

28. Thank you for your response to...

...my question. I really appreciate that. I've been trying to understand Ohio 2004 for a while now...unsuccessfully. I know there are always 'shenanigans', but I think 2004 was much more than that. JMHO. It worries me that we could see a repeat...in Ohio or elsewhere, if people don't wake up.

You may have already seen this, but if not, it's worth watching (yes some of it is a little flaky :7 ...but it makes the point:

http://www.freeforall.tv/

Thanks again for your post.

[JDPriestly]

23. I don't find the theory that the Republicans stole the 2004 election

at all hard to believe because I worked the polls on election day.

[peace13]

33. That and Rove's IT guy ended up dead just before he was to testify.

Two good points. We haven't even gotten into the placement of machines, long lines and incorrect voting information that was put out by the right on election day. The Blackwell /*/Rove connection. Where do we stop!

I was a poll worker in Ohio for over 15 years but I only could stomach the machines for two years. When I asked the Diebold trainer if the machines were connected to the internet he said, 'Do you see any wires?' I was not asked to be a poll worker the next round. When I went back to the BOE directer and called him on it he said that he couldn't have me telling everyone the machines weren't good. I let him know that I was as ethical and professional as any person at my precinct and expected to be working at the next election. I worked two more elections but I just didn't feel like I could promise the people in good faith that the machines were not hackable. After the SOS stated that they were easily hackable I stopped working the polls. I use a paper ballot for what it's worth.

[roseBudd]

35. all you had to do with the punchcards in Warren Cty, was separate the kerry votes from precincts...

where Kerry was the second punch, and tally the cards under a precinct where Bush was the second punch.

There was nothing on those cards that distinguished which precinct/tabulation program that were tallied under.

You could drop them on the floor & you'd never figure out which was which

Now ask yourself, if the ballot tabulation is specific to precincts because of candidate rotation, why wouldn't you have a punch that identified the precinct?

Indiana did.

[The Croquist]

26. Don't worry, be happy

I remember going into the 2010 election and reading here what a joke and how racist the Tea Party was. Don't worry, be happy. When I objected I was insulted, a DU tradition. Come election day we saw that the joke was on us. We got clobbered. Now a year later I'm hearing about what a joke and how racist the Tea party is. Don't worry, be happy. I've seen on MSNBC that the reason that the Tea Party is supporting Herman Cain is because they are racist. The people who believe that are are in complete denial of reality.

If the election were held today we would lose the presidency, half a dozen seats in the house and enough seats in the senate to cost us control (but not nearly super majority status). I don't expect election day to be any better next November. Then it's disaster control again.

I went to the Occupy Atlanta protest and was unimpressed. They were largely college students milling around looking bored. It was a Sunday Morning from about 10:15 AM to Noon. There were about 100 of them (including homeless) and maybe 40 tents. That was two weeks ago this Sunday. Maybe they've grown. Stepping on American flags and craping on cop cars is no way to impress independent voters.

Don't worry, be happy.

[Scuba]

4. He could pick up a bunch of Independents by moving LEFT. n/t

[libinnyandia]

6. Obama vs Cain

There must be a lot people in Ohio who want to pay higher taxes. I would like to think that the more people know about the GOP's distain for the 99%ers the less they will support them. What the GOP state legislators and governor have done shouldn't help them too much.

[jmowreader]

34. Conservatives will never believe they're in the 99 percent

They call themselves the 53 percent and believe the "99 percenters" are just soaking up all the money they pay in taxes.

Note to any lurking 53 percenters: the top 1 percent thinks you're just as worthless as they think we are.

Read Orwell again: when the government announced that the chocolate ration was being increased to 25 grammes per week, the proles believed they were getting more chocolate even though last week's ration was 30 grammes. Some people--a LOT of people--will believe anything you tell them.

[24601]

36. Unless money just isn't an issue in your life, most voters are fine

with other people paying more taxes but aren't so keen on it for themselves. If that were truly the case, multitudes would be voluntarily paying more by perfectly legal strategies like taking the standard deduction instead of itemizing, or making donations to the treasury.

We are deluding ourselves by the fiction that most Americans want to pay higher taxes. While I wouldn't mind if the government stripped people like George Soros, Warren Buffet & mega-rich entertainers of 95% of their wealth, I want to be able to pay for my kids' college.

[piggy2000]

7. I'm Shocked

Who are these people that still want the Republican policies that crashed the economy? These Teabaggers, GOP members or whatever other name they use to hide behind....DO NOTHING!

[zalinda]

8. It depends on who is running. They believed

Obama in 2008, and he didn't deliver. They will keep 'throwing the bums out' until someone does something. They are angry. They feel that they have been lied to. These are the same people who didn't show up in 2010.

zalinda

[OnyxCollie]

12. Got that right.

Ohio's circling the drain right now. We've lost a half-million jobs and have the lowest hourly wages. Not that I expected Kasich to do anything about it, but nothing's been done from on high either.

There's been no hope and change for the past three years, and people here are pissed.

Including me.

[OhioChick]

14. You about sumed it up n/t

[Iliyah]

13. Obama will

win in Ohio. Same thing in 2008, remember? McCain was on Prez O's heels in the country whereas he and nutso Palin had a strong outcome of winning, remember? Although I trust PPP, its very early, and Romney has not shown his true gop colors, like destroying medicare and socical security. Raising taxes on the middle tax while the rich and corporations pay nothing.

And I get so tired of so called Americans hating on HCR. I wished those who are against Americans having health care get to have their medicare, medi-cal, medicaid revoked.

[woo me with science]

17. "They will keep 'throwing the bums out' until someone does something. "

Thank you.

If people had any hope left that this administration will bring change, they would not now be protesting in the streets.

[apnu]

15. Its an education and message problem of the Dems.

Dem leadership just won't call the GOP out on their bullshit, though the GOP will gleefully call the Dems out on Dem bullshit. If the Dems did, they'd win OH in a landslide. All they have to say is "we're for lower taxes on the middle and low classes and we're for jobs." Done, Obama wins and his coat tails are huge.

Why Dem leadership continues to play nice with the GOP is beyond me.

[grantcart]

11. Much better than I would have expected at this point

A head to head between Obama and Romney would be a tie at this point, with each candidate getting 46%,


The President has been subjected to a 6 month campaign while the Republicans throw everything at him. As the Republican primaries become more contentious the Republican nominee's negatives will go up as the also rans start running negative ads.

Then the President will actually start campaigning.

BTW you want to start the campaign low so that subsequent movement in the poll shows the President 'improving' rather than later figures show the President declining.

[Hawkowl]

20. Ties ALWAYS goes to the Rethuglicans

Anything close to a tie goes to Rethuglicans. Diebold. Kerry. Gore.

Obama will lose because he did not deliver change. If he had, we wouldn't have OWS. It doesn't matter if people make excuses for Obama.

He. Didn't. Deliver.

Like a pro-athlete who can't get the job done, he will be defeated.

I am looking forward to 2016 when we have truly descended into an American third world hell.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

16. It's really way too early to start panicking. An eternity in politics

These polls don't mean squat. And Republicans are more visible now due to their primaries and Media exposure. Once we get down to the general election after the Repukes decide which idiot they want, then we can get nervous.

I'd much rather stay busy getting people registered and ready to do battle.

[SoapBox]

18. Ohio...which is butted right up to Kentucky...picks the Boner and The Turtle...

...speaks volumes.

The states select angry, old, WORTHLESS white guys.

The black man hasn't much of a chance.

[RZM]

21. Just about everything in your post is wrong

First of all, Boehner doesn't represent the state. He represents his district, which is anchored in the suburbs of Cincinnati (though in 2002 it was gerrymandered out a bit). As you surely know, the Cincinnati suburbs are heavily Republican.

Two white men do represent the state in the Senate. But that's not all that significant, seeing as the Senate is filled with white men. They aren't all that old, either, as both are in their first terms. Brown is 58, Portman is 55, putting them both a bit below the mean age for senators (62 in 2007 - probably slightly lower now with Byrd and Kennedy out) and well below the median. Contrast that with Vermont, where both (white male) Senators are over 70.

And Obama beat McCain here in 2008. You don't get much more 'angry, old, worthless, and white' than McCain.

[totodeinhere]

27. The scary thing about this is that in the last 12 presidential elections the

candidate who won Ohio won the election. Not since Ohio voted for Nixon in 1960 has the state gone for the loser.

Sorry - I meant this to be a reply to the OP.

[JDPriestly]

24. What do you know about Ohio?

It is not a matter of race. Ohio voted for Obama in 2008.

It is a matter of Obama's cozying up to the banks that robbed everybody and ruined our economy. That is why people do not trust him.

[AverageJoe90]

39. Obama has been picking up steam recently. Let's hope it continues. nt