STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, November 3, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, November 3, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 2, 2011

Dow 11,836.04 +178.08 (+1.50%)
Nasdaq 2,639.98 +33.02 (+1.25%)
S&P 500 1,237.90 +19.62 (+1.58%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.01 +0.02 (+0.91%)
30-Year Bond 3.04 +0.02 (+0.76%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Nov 03 08:30 Initial Claims 10/29 400K 401K 402K
Nov 03 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/22 3700K 3675K 3645K
Nov 03 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3 2.8% 2.8% -0.7%
Nov 03 08:30 Unit Labor Costs -Prel Q3 -1.0% -1.1% 3.3%
Nov 03 10:00 Factory Orders Sep -0.5% -0.2% -0.2%
Nov 03 10:00 ISM Services Oct 53.0 53.8 53.0

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/10/31-04/#ixzz1cdjqTSTE

[Roland99]

40. Oct. ISM service jobs index 53.3% vs 48.7% Sept.

[Roland99]

41. Oct. ISM service new orders 52.4% vs 56.5% Sept.

[Roland99]

42. Oct. ISM services index 52.9% vs 53.0% Sept.

[Roland99]

43. Factory orders edge up 0.3% in September

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil near $91 amid fears Greece could leave euro

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to near $91 a barrel Thursday in Asia after Germany's leader said a Greek vote in December on a debt bailout package could lead to Greece leaving the euro zone.

Benchmark crude for December delivery was down $1.10 at $91.41 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 32 cents to settle at $92.51 in New York on Wednesday.

Brent crude was down 74 cents at $108.55 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday that a vote likely to be held on December 4 will essentially be about whether Greece will stay in the European currency union. If Greek voters decide to reject the debt bailout package — which includes fiscal austerity measures to help lower debt levels — Greece could face a chaotic bond default that would undermine European banks.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance on Speculation Greece Will Call Off Vote

U.S. stock futures climbed, erasing an earlier slide, amid speculation Greece will call off a planned referendum on its latest bailout after the euro area’s leaders suspended the country’s next aid payment.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index contracts expiring in December added 0.4 percent to 1,238.8 at 6:46 a.m. in New York, erasing earlier losses of as much as 1.7 percent. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average expiring the same month rose 45 points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,813.

“Markets have pared losses on hopes that a referendum will not occur,” said Ioan Smith, a director at Knight Capital Europe Ltd. in London. “I don’t think the market is too focused on Germany and France pulling aid, the main focus is on the referendum and Greece’s political situation.”

Prime Minister George Papandreou’s ruling Pasok party has split over his pledge to call a referendum on the country’s bailout package before a confidence vote in parliament tomorrow that may determine his survival.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-03/u-s-stock-futures-fall-as-europe-cuts-aid-to-greece-on-vote-plan.html

[Demeter]

5. In your dreams

Greece will not call off the vote, because then the government would fall into revolution.

Who do they think they are?

[tama]

9. Never underestimate Greek politicians

eagerness and lust for party-political infighting, between and inside political parties, unions etc.

And as they do, more and more Greeks start to see the virtue of anarchy vs. following leaders...

[Demeter]

4. Sarkoma looks a bit like Dracula, there

Cartoon doesn't get quite the right spin on it.

[DemReadingDU]

6. OOOooh, I was trying to figure out if I should know the characters

Guess the blond lady is Merkel?

[Po_d Mainiac]

8. And she don't look to be real pleased with G-Pap smear n/t

[tama]

7. Don't like the toon nt

[Ghost Dog]

53. Agrree. Those are no ordinary customers waiting to be 'served'

with pleasure.

They're vampire squid.

[Demeter]

10. Does Redistributing Income Reduce Poverty? By Jagdish Bhagwati

http://www.nationofchange.org/does-redistributing-income-reduce-poverty-1319818686

IS THIS A TRICK QUESTION?

Many on the left are suspicious of the idea that economic growth helps to reduce poverty in developing countries. They argue that growth-oriented policies seek to increase gross national product, not to ameliorate poverty, and that redistribution is the key to poverty reduction. These assertions, however, are not borne out by the evidence...Since the 1950’s, developmental economists have understood that growth in GNP is not synonymous with increased welfare. But, even prior to independence, India’s leaders saw growth as essential for reducing poverty and increasing social welfare. In economic terms, growth was an instrument, not a target – the means by which the true targets, like poverty reduction and the social advancement of the masses, would be achieved.

A quarter-century ago, I pointed out the two distinct ways in which economic growth would have this effect. First, growth would pull the poor into gainful employment, thereby helping to lift them out of poverty. Higher incomes would enable them to increase their personal spending on education and health (as seems to have been happening in India during its recent period of accelerated growth).

Second, growth increases state revenues, which means that the government can potentially spend more on health and education for the poor. Of course, a country does not necessarily spend more on such items simply because it has increased revenue, and, even if it does, the programs it chooses to fund may not be effective.

In almost willful ignorance of the fact that the growth-centered model has proved itself time and again, skeptics advocate an alternative “redistributive” developmental model, which they believe will have a greater impact on reducing poverty. Critics of the growth model argue that it is imperative to redistribute income and wealth as soon as possible. They claim that the Indian state of Kerala and the country of Bangladesh are examples where redistribution, rather than growth, has led to better outcomes for the poor than in the rest of India. Yet, as Columbia University economist Arvind Panagariya’s recent work shows, Kerala’s social statistics were better than those in the rest of the country even before it instituted its current redistributive model. Moreover, Kerala has profited immensely from remittances sent home by its émigré workers in the Middle East, a factor unrelated to its redistributive policy. As for Bangladesh, the United Nations’ Human Development Index, admittedly a problematic source, ranks it below India.

In impoverished countries where the poor exceed the rich by a huge margin, redistribution would increase the consumption of the poor only minimally – by, say, a chapati a day – and the increase would not be sustainable in a context of low income and high population growth. In short, for most developing countries, growth is the principal strategy for inclusive development – that is, development that consciously includes the marginal and poorest members of a society. But the political sustainability of the growth-first model requires both symbolic and material efforts. While growth does benefit the poor, the rich often benefit disproportionately. So, to keep the poor committed to the system as their economic aspirations are aroused, the wealthy would be well advised to indulge less in conspicuous consumption. At the same time – and more importantly – the poor need greater access to education in order to increase their economic opportunities and social mobility. “Less excess and more access” must become the principle that guides development policy.

THAT WOULD BE A YES.

[Demeter]

11. Keeping It Clean: Maine’s Fight for Fair Elections By Brooke Jarvis

http://www.nationofchange.org/keeping-it-clean-maine-s-fight-fair-elections-1319809100

Eleven years ago, a waitress named Deb Simpson was elected to Maine’s state legislature—one of 116 candidates to run that year under the state’s newly implemented Clean Elections Act, a first-in-the-nation attempt to replace private campaign contributions with public funding in order to keep rich, out-of-state special interests from determining who gets elected to public office or how they vote once they get there. Simpson—who, at the time, was earning $3.18 an hour plus tips—became something of a poster child for what the law was meant to accomplish: allowing political outsiders without ties to lobbyists or wealthy patrons to gain office through the support of their constituents. “We all have had equal access to get our message out,” Simpson told Public Campaign, a pro-Clean Elections group that profiled her in 2006 as an example of what the system makes possible. “We get to have a dialogue with the voters, to get out there and try to convince them to vote for us, hopefully based on the ideals and values that we have, that we share.” ...Last year, though, Simpson lost her seat after a campaign that was far from equal. She and four of her Democratic colleagues in the Senate were swept out of office on a tide of out-of-state money that swamped what Clean Elections offered; Simpson herself faced nearly $100,000 in opposition from a single group. “There just isn’t any way it’s fair when you have this money coming in,” says Patsy Crockett, another of the targeted former senators. Local candidates who usually campaign through lawn signs, mailers, and lots of door-knocking found themselves facing vilification in statewide TV and radio ads.

The same thing, of course, was happening in races nationwide. The 2010 elections were the first since the Supreme Court’s controversial decision, in Citizens United v. the Federal Election Commission, that corporations and wealthy individuals have a First Amendment right to spend unlimited (and largely anonymous) amounts of money to influence elections. Major funders were quick to put the decision to use: Political spending by groups other than candidates and political parties (“independent expenditures”), already on the rise, jumped by 427 percent from the 2006 midterms. Many analysts predict that 2012 will make the 2010 cycle look tame.

This new political landscape raises questions about the future of publicly financed elections (also known as “fair elections” and “voter-owned elections” in addition to “clean elections”), long considered one of the most promising ideas for keeping big money out of politics in Maine and beyond. The Clean Elections system is about breaking the direct connection between funders and legislators; it’s designed to deal with some outside spending, but not at the scale that Citizens United has unleashed. Some think Clean Elections can adapt; others believe the system’s new vulnerability is proof that deeper changes are needed in order to protect it.

MUCH MORE AT LINK

[xchrom]

12. top of the morning...

:donut:

[xchrom]

13. europe: Merkel and Sarkozy Halt Payments to Athens

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,795638,00.html

The food was excellent, clearly the product of a gourmet chef. But the conversation was more on the level of a street corner eatery. During a working dinner in the Palais des Festivals in Cannes, France, European Union bigwigs Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy didn't mince words in talks with Greek Prime Minister Giorgios Papandreou.

When the German chancellor and the French president approached the microphone at 10:30 p.m., it was clear that the three-hour-long meal had not been a relaxing one.

"It was a serious situation, it wasn't easy," said Merkel. "We will defend the euro. We want to do that together with Greece. But we are not going to jeopardize this great project of unity. That is our priority." Just to ensure that her warning was understood, Merkel added: "We respect the decision of the Greek people. But we are not going to give up the euro."

The emergency meeting in Cannes, called on the eve of the G-20 summit to be held in the French seaside town on Thursday and Friday, became necessary after Papandreou called a referendum in Greece on whether the country wants to undergo the belt-tightening measures necessary to receive European Union aid money and to remain in the euro zone.

[xchrom]

14. Merkel Joins the Global Hunt for Natural Resources

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,795256,00.html

A visit to Ulan Bator is not without unique rules for diplomatic protocol. When German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited the Mongolian capital in October, she had to pay careful attention to the direction she walked as she stepped into a yurt at the governmental palace. Moving clockwise is of paramount importance.

Before long, though, she was invited to take her seat and get down to business. It was time to address the topic she had come to discuss: raw materials.

The chancellor is more than willing to travel to the ends of the earth, if it means she can secure Germany's supply of natural resources. Indeed, Mongolia hasn't been the chancellor's only stop on the search for more; she was recently in Angola and Nigeria as well.

She plans to report on the results of her Mongolia trip at an upcoming meeting with German industrial representatives. Ten companies, including BASF, Daimler, Evonik and ThyssenKrupp, have all joined forces to ensure the future supply of natural resources.

[Ghost Dog]

54. Re Germany/EU & resources: Morocco to host first solar farm in €400bn renewables network

... Morocco has been chosen as the first location for a German-led, €400bn project to build a vast network of solar and windfarms across North Africa and the Middle East to provide 15% of Europe's electricity supply by 2050.

The Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII), a coalition of companies including E.ON, Siemens, Munich Re and Deutsche Bank, announced at its annual conference being held in Cairo on Wednesday that "all systems are go in Morocco", with construction of the first phase of a 500MW solar farm scheduled to start next year. The precise location of the €2bn plant is yet to be finalised, but it is expected to be built near the desert city of Ouarzazate. It will use parabolic mirrors to generate heat for conventional steam turbines, as opposed to the photovoltaic cells used in the UK...

... Van Son described Desertec as a "win-win" for both Europe and MENA, adding that the Arab spring had created both opportunities and "questions" for the ambitious project. Discussions are already underway with the Tunisian government about building a solar farm, he said, and Algeria is the next "obvious" country, due to its close proximity to western Europe's grid. Countries such as Libya, Egypt, Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia are predicted to start joining the network from 2020, as a network of high voltage direct current cables are built and extended across the wider region.

German companies and policymakers have dominated the Dii conference, reflecting the nation's recent decision to totally phase out nuclear power by 2022 in reaction, in part, to the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in March. By comparison, not a single representative from the UK was at the conference...

/... http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/02/morocco-solar-farm-renewables

The other side of the Atlas Mountains from Marrakesh (I live in the still-Spanish islands, bottom-left):

Ouarzazate:



- I estimate that a 12km x 12km solar patch would be somewhat smaller, like half the size at the above scale, than the letter 'o' in the word 'Morocco' on the map.

[xchrom]

17. Spanish election campaign gets underway at Midnight Thursday Read more: http://www.typicallyspanish

http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_32553.shtml

PP leader Mariano Rajoy has chosen Cataluña, and Socialist candidate Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba has picked Madrid for the official start of the election campaign today. Rajoy will be in Castelldefels and Rubalcaba will be in Alcalá this evening.

It’s been revealed that Rajoy will not campaign with Aznar in any rally during the campaign, while Rubalcaba is hopeful that his face to face TV debate with Rajoy will help those undecided on how to vote.

Cayo Lara from the IU left wingers and Rosa Díez from UPyD will also hold events in the capital, while CiU meet in Barcelona and the PNV in Vitoria. The campaign officially starts at midnight tonight.

Marking the date the Spanish indignant protestors say that they will return to the Puerta del Sol in the centre of Madrid, despite a prohibition order on doing so from the Junta Electoral. The protestors have also called a state demonstration for November 13, a week before the election.

Read more: http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_32553.shtml#ixzz1ce3ZmPT7





***i wish the spanish people well because the PP are going to win.
they're going to need all the good wishes they can get.
not that the socialists did a very good job.

[xchrom]

23. Rubalcaba calls for European stimulus drive

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/Rubalcaba/calls/for/European/stimulus/drive/elpepueng/20111102elpeng_10/Ten

Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, who heads the Socialist Party's slate for the November 20 general election, on Wednesday urged the European Union to take the lead in promoting policies aimed at reactivating the economy, rather than focusing exclusively on the need for fiscal discipline.

Rubalcaba noted that the OECD, the International Labor Organization as well as US President Barack Obama and his Brazilian counterpart Dilma Rousseff have also highlighted the role public investment can play in generating growth and jobs. "We Social Democrats are not so alone now," the Socialists' prime-ministerial candidate said at a campaign rally in Madrid.

The former interior minister also called on the European Central Bank to lower interest rates.

Spain's unemployment rate is double the European average at 21.5 percent.

[xchrom]

24. 15-M supporters to reinvade Sol on Friday

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/15-M/supporters/to/reinvade/Sol/on/Friday/elpepueng/20111102elpeng_4/Ten

In defiance of restrictions imposed by Madrid's Electoral Board in the run-up to the November 20 general election, organizers of the 15-M citizen protest movement have invited supporters to once more unite in the capital's Puerta del Sol square on Friday.

The Indignants are also encouraging people to participate in a "state-wide demonstration" on Sunday November 13, one week before Spain goes to the polls.

"In the face of the Electoral Board's ban, we will return to the square," the movement's Madrid wing declared in a statement published on its website. "A group of individuals has worked on the idea of inviting citizens to come together in Sol on Friday to experience the opening of the electoral campaign together."

Participants will be able to hold meetings and non-partisan election debates, as well as offer explanations of the voting options at the rally, which will be followed by a mass sticking up of non-partisan posters.

[xchrom]

25. Greek crisis: PM 'expected to step down today' - live

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2011/nov/03/greek-crisis-referendum-eurozone

12.49pm More eurozone drama - the European Central Bank has cut interest rates across the currency union. The cost of borrowing is coming down to 1.25%, from 1.5% previously. Most city economists expected no 'change', despite a widespread belief that the ECB was wrong to raise rates twice this year.

What a way for Mario Draghi to start his term as ECB president....

12.44pm: While we eagerly await news from Greece, David Cameron has been discussing the eurozone crisis in Brussels.

He confirmed that Britain could increase our contributions to the International Monetary Fund (as Mark Hoban told parliament this morning).

Let's be clear. When the world is in crisis, it's right that you consider boosting the IMF - an organisation founded by Britain, in which we're a leading player. No government ever lost money by lending money to the IMF, which supports countries right around the world.

More on Andrew Sparrow's live blog from the G20 meeting.

12.29pm: There is huge confusion, and a sense of rising panic, in Greece.

[xchrom]

27. Services data fans UK recession fears

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/03/services-slowdown-recession-fears

A sharper than expected slowdown for Britain's services sector has fanned fears that the economy will slip back into recession before the end of the year.

The UK's dominant services sector, which covers a host of businesses from hotels to computing, grew at a much slower pace than economists had forecast last month, compounding other recent business surveys suggesting the economy is grinding to a halt.

The headline activity reading fell to 51.3 on the Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index. That was down from 52.9 in September and below forecasts for 52 in a Reuters poll of economists.

The index was still clear of the 50-mark separating growth from contraction but showed a marked slowdown in expansion. The deterioration came even as companies slashed their prices to hold on to cash-strapped customers. The prices charged index fell to 48.6 from 50, representing the first discounting for more than a year.

[xchrom]

28. G20 summit: doubts rise over China's willingness to help finance rescue fund

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/03/g20-summit-china-finance-rescue-fund

Doubts are rising that the Chinese will be willing to produce funds swiftly to buy European bonds or capitalise the European firewall fund at the G20 summit, partly due to the instability caused by the Greek crisis.

The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has been urging the Chinese to agree to contribute to his proposed €1tn (£864bn) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) firewall.

Speaking before the summit, the Chinese vice finance minister, Zhu Guan, said: "There are no concrete plans yet, so it's too early to talk about further investments in these tools."

Zhu said the rescue fund, already part of China's portfolio, was an "important tool" with which to address the sovereign debt crisis.

[xchrom]

30. Europe 'will ease pressure on China over human rights in exchange for bailout'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/03/europe-china-human-rights-bailout

European leaders are likely to ease pressure on China over human rights in exchange for Beijing's involvement in a bailout, campaigners have warned.

Major rights organisations fear governments and EU officials will tone down criticism – a particular concern given that this year saw China's most severe crackdown on activists, dissidents and lawyers for over a decade.

"It is definitely a big worry. We have already seen a weakening on human rights issues over some time, and I think this will exacerbate it," Corinna-Barbara Francis, a China expert at Amnesty International, said.

Sophie Richardson, the Asia advocacy director for Human Rights Watch, said: "I fear EU officials will be that much more reticent about criticising the Chinese government over anything.

[Tansy_Gold]

45. Fuckers. n/t

[Ghost Dog]

56. EU already eased any pressure on the USA

... as regards human rights ...

[Demeter]

61. It's Growing on Me

I had my doubts, but now that I see how many ways it can be applied....

Yeah, it's a good slogan/retort/interjection.

[Loge23]

52. Talk about slippery slopes.... !(eom)

[xchrom]

31. Yields rise as Spain sells 4.5 bln euros of bonds

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yields-rise-as-spain-sells-45-bln-euros-of-bonds-2011-11-03

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Spain's Treasury on Thursday sold 4.5 billion euros ($6.2 billion) of government bonds, with borrowing costs rising amid increasing turmoil surrounding Greece and the euro-zone debt crisis. Spain sold 1.56 billion euros of bonds due to mature in 2014 at an average yield of 4.27%, with bids exceeding supply 1.7 times. The Treasury said Thursday's auction results weren't strictly comparable with the last sale of the issue which took place in June 2009. The Treasury sold 2.92 billion euros of a bond due to mature in 2016, producing an average yield of 4.85% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.62. A previous sale in September saw an average yield of 4.49% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.76. In the secondary market, Spanish 10-year yields /quotes/zigman/4869131 ES:10YR_ESP +0.71% rose 18 basis points to 5.59%, according to FactSet Research data.

[xchrom]

33. ECB unexpectedly cuts rates; Draghi to speak

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-unexpectedly-cuts-rates-draghi-to-speak-2011-11-03?link=MW_Nav_FP

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — The European Central Bank on Thursday cut its key lending rate by a quarter point to 1.25% in the face of deteriorating economic data and persistent market turmoil inspired by Europe’s ongoing debt crisis in the first policy meeting presided over by new ECB President Mario Draghi.

Draghi, who took over the top spot at the ECB on Tuesday, will hold his first monthly news conference at 2:30 p.m. local time, or 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

“It is obvious that the ECB has caught the crisis virus and is trying everything it can to prevent a full-fledged recession,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Bank in Brussels. “Now, the big question for the press conference is whether the ECB is also willing to do everything to prevent a further escalation of the sovereign debt crisis, becoming the unconditional lender of last resort of the euro zone.”

The ECB had been largely expected to hold steady, although economists said a rate cut couldn’t be ruled out and was likely to come at some point in coming months.

[xchrom]

34. Italy's Berlusconi faces mounting pressure to go

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/uk-italy-crisis-idUKTRE7A229V20111103

(Reuters) - Pressure mounted on Italy's besieged Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to quit on Thursday, as six former parliamentary loyalists called for a new government and the squabbling cabinet failed to agree an urgent economic reform programme.

The rebel deputies, three of whom have already left Berlusconi's crumbling coalition, wrote to the premier saying Italy needed a "new political phase and a new government."

"We are asking you to take an initiative which is appropriate to the situation," the deputies wrote, according to the letter published in the daily Corriere della Sera.

"Be the backer of a new political phase and a new government which would have the task, from now until the end of the legislative term, of implementing the agenda agreed with our European partners and with it, the indications which came from the European Central Bank."

[xchrom]

39. Berlusconi Arrives at G-20 ‘Empty-Handed’ After Revamp Vow

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-03/berlusconi-arrives-at-g-20-empty-handed-after-vowing-revamp.html

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi arrived at today’s Group of 20 summit with pressure mounting on him to overhaul Italy’s economy after European leaders for the first time raised the prospect of the euro area splintering.

Berlusconi is going “to Cannes empty-handed,” Il Sole 24 Ore, Italy’s leading financial daily, said today in a front-page editorial. The Cabinet last night only agreed on a “mini-plan” to fight the debt crisis, rather than accelerating a promised economic revamp through an emergency decree, the Milan-based newspaper said.

Italy’s 10-year bond yield rose to a new euro-era record today after Berlusconi’s Cabinet only included some promised measures in an amendment to a spending bill that Parliament must pass this month. The premier had raised investor expectations on Nov. 1 by vowing to speed implementation of measures pledged to the European Union last week in time for the gathering of world leaders in France today.

“The outcome of the Cabinet meeting suggests that the Italian government will be unable to approve unpopular measures needed to restore market confidence,” Fabio Fois, an economist at Barclays Capital in London, wrote in a note to investors. “Should the government not instigate bold actions in the very near term, Berlusconi could be forced to resign.”

[xchrom]

36. Britain faces 50 pct chance of recession - NIESR

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/uk-britain-economy-niesr-idUKLNE7A200C20111103

(Reuters) - Britain's economy faces a near 50 percent chance of sliding back into recession, even if euro zone policymakers succeed in finding a solution to the bloc's debt crisis, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said on Thursday.

If euro zone policymakers merely "muddle through", the chance of a British recession would rise to 70 percent, the academic think tank predicted.

NIESR's central forecast is for gross domestic product to grow by just 0.9 percent this year and 0.8 percent next, with risks to the downside, revised sharply down from forecasts of 1.3 and 2.0 percent respectively it made in August.

"There is a weakness in demand from both consumers and investors but the main downside risk is from the euro zone crisis," said NIESR's director, Jonathan Portes.

[Ghost Dog]

57. European rescue could spell long-term pain for UK

... Greater union within the euro zone is seen by London as the only logical long-term fix but officials acknowledge that would also risk marginalising Britain from European decision making and threaten its competitive advantage in crucial sectors.

"It's Solomon's choice -- the choice between a euro zone that implodes, inflicting huge collateral damage on the UK and blowing apart the coalition government's plans to go into the next election with a growing economy and stronger public finances," said Philip Whyte, a senior research fellow at the Centre For European Reform think tank in London.

"Set against that, (there is) the longer term problem of a more tightly integrated euro zone resulting in growing British isolation in the European Union."

SIDELINED?

Britain has long frustrated its European counterparts, keeping its distance while enjoying the fruits of the single market, lecturing from afar and sidestepping any EU rules seen as too damaging to London's precious financial centre...

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/uk-britain-europe-idUKTRE7A20W420111103

[xchrom]

58. +1

[Ghost Dog]

60. Glad to see you're paying attention, xchrom!

Perfidious has long been the term employed by many...

See eg: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfidious_Albion

'Perfidious Albion' is a pejorative phrase used within the context of international relations and diplomacy to refer to acts of duplicity, treachery and hence infidelity (with respect to promises made to or alliances formed with other nation states) by monarchs or governments of Britain (or England) in their pursuit of self-interest and the requirements of realpolitik.

Perfidious signifies one who does not keep his faith or word (from the Latin word "perfidia"), while Albion is the ancient Greek name for Great Britain... (more)...

And: http://www.economist.com/node/16163218

[xchrom]

55. BNP Paribas Writes Down Greek Debt as Earnings Slump

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/bnp-paribas-writes-down-greek-debt-as-earnings-slump/

PARIS — BNP Paribas, the largest French bank, announced a sharp decline in third-quarter profit on Thursday and said it was writing off 60 percent of the value of its holdings of Greek debt, a belated acknowledgement that the loans were largely unrecoverable.

The bank, based in Paris, said it was setting aside about 2.1 billion euros ($2.9 billion) of the value of its Greek sovereign debt, while also writing down about 116 million euros of exposure to Greek corporate bonds.

The bank said it had also moved to address its exposure to the debt of other troubled governments in the euro zone, selling 1.9 billion euros worth of Greek sovereign debt, 8.2 billion euros of Italian debt and 2.5 billion euros of Spanish debt.

[Demeter]

15. Greek referendum likely to sidestep bail-out issue

If the government survives a confidence vote, Greeks will be asked in December about membership of the EU, not the bail-out package

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/P75VYY/ZGAODR/6ADGM/62AFA0/JENJZG/B7/t?a1=2011&a2=11&a3=3

EVEN WORSE FOR THE EURO!

[Demeter]

16. Europe’s voters threaten crisis backlash

In France and Italy, more than half of those questioned in a Harris poll believed the common currency was having a negative impact on their lives

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/P75VYY/ZGAODR/6ADGM/62AFA0/ZG20R4/B7/t?a1=2011&a2=11&a3=3

[Demeter]

18. Euro crisis reveals limits of US leadership

White House has watched the unravelling of deals to save the single currency with a mixture of despair, disbelief and helplessness

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/P75VYY/ZGAODR/6ADGM/62AFA0/XHC6S3/B7/t?a1=2011&a2=11&a3=3

ABOUT TIME THE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE GOT TAKEN DOWN A PEG OR 3.

[Demeter]

19. SEC expects to file further CDO charges

US regulator is target more Wall Street firms over the sale of mortgage-linked securities, with hopes of wrapping up probes into the financial crisis soon

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/EB8122/HYFQGC/HI3M9/KQ90SI/YBVOSU/28/t?a1=2011&a2=11&a3=3

[Demeter]

20. Japan restarts first nuclear reactor since disaster

Symbolically important first step before dozens of idled reactors can be brought back online

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/M2ZOXX/R3G3TR/LSLXF/KQ909J/SPGUHT/KI/t?a1=2011&a2=11&a3=2

[Demeter]

21. Fed holds rates amid brighter outlook

The US Federal Reserve made no change to its monetary policy in November as it struck a more upbeat tone on the economy.

The unchanged decision reflects slightly better economic data in recent weeks as well as a need to pause for breath after two dramatic policy moves in August and September. Economic growth in the third quarter came in at an annualised rate of 2.5 per cent.


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/4C42JU/SUO9T/EXKHK0/HYR93R/CM/t?a1=2011&a2=11&a3=2

[Demeter]

22. House Republicans make cross-party pitch to embolden debt ‘supercommittee’

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/house-republicans-make-cross-party-pitch-to-embolden-debt-supercommittee/2011/11/02/gIQAhCBugM_story.html?hpid=z1

A group of 40 House Republicans for the first time Wednesday encouraged Congress’s deficit reduction committee to explore new revenue as part of a broad deal that would make a major dent in the nation’s debt, joining 60 Democrats in a rare bipartisan effort to urge the “supercommittee” to reach a big deal that could also include entitlement cuts...

[xchrom]

26. Banco do Brasil profit beats views; defaults down

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/9928332

SAO PAULO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Banco do Brasil reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit on Thursday as lower taxes and a jump in trading gains helped Brazil's largest bank by assets overcome a surge in bad loan provisions and weak interest income.
The state-controlled lender posted net income of 2.891 billion reais ($1.65 billion) for the third quarter, well above the average estimate of 2.672 billion reais from 10 analysts polled by Reuters last week.
Profit jumped 10 percent from 2.625 billion reais a year earlier, but fell from 3.357 billion reais in the second quarter as the bank set aside more capital to cover overdue loans, according to a securities filing.
Excluding one-time gains and charges, earnings slid less than 1 percent to 2.57 billion reais from a year earlier, but tumbled 20 percent on a sequential basis. The indicator missed the 2.641 billion reais estimate in the Reuters poll.

[Hotler]

29. k&r n/t

[xchrom]

32. Cannes protests should scare G-20

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cannes-protests-should-scare-g-20-2011-11-03?dist=beforebell

Brilliant idea. Why bother with snowy New York or tear-gas-filled Oakland when you can occupy the South of France by the beach and protest the elites at the same time?

But the estimated 10,000 protesters in nearby Nice on Wednesday weren’t the passive, anti-bank Occupy crowd. They were the real thing; the semi-annual anarchy tourists who make it a point to show up at any big global leaders event and steal its thunder, often with violence. Think the riots in Rome, or the Battle in Seattle during past G-8 meetings.

I’ve never understood why global leaders continue to insist on holding their meetings in luxurious resorts and destinations, reeking of conspicuous consumption as they debate how to fix the world for the little people. No wonder these protests have caught on.

In this case, however, the leaders should take notice of the protesters, even if they are miles away in Nice. Because the anger that is the common denominator of all these rallies and protests is spreading.

[Demeter]

62. Good Find!

Yes, get the wrong kind of ants, and the picnic is spoiled for certain.

[xchrom]

35. asia: Analysis - Beijing risks public backlash if rescues Europe

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/uk-china-europe-idUKTRE7A224920111103

(Reuters) - China's people have a clear message for their government -- don't even think of saving Europe.

Ahead of a G20 summit in France on Thursday, tens of thousands of ordinary Chinese have been venting their anger online, demanding their leaders sort out China's own problems before bailing out Europe.

"Domestic pressure (on China's leaders) is huge. Ordinary people are condemning" any decision to throw Europe a lifeline, one source with ties to China's top leaders told Reuters, requesting anonymity because of political sensitivities.

European officials have asked China to put cash in a mooted special purpose investment vehicle to enhance the region's rescue fund four- to five-fold, to about 1 trillion euros.

[xchrom]

47. China’s Stocks Rise as Signs of Economic Slowdown Spur Easing Speculation

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-03/china-s-stocks-rise-for-3rd-day-on-looser-policy-fed-stimulus-speculation.html

China’s stocks rose for a third day on speculation the government will accelerate measures to boost the economy after a report on non-manufacturing industries signaled tight monetary policies are hurting businesses.

Sanan Optoelectronics Co. jumped 8 percent after Industrial Securities Co. said investors are speculating the light-emitting diode industry will get subsidies. China Life Insurance Co. rose to the highest in three months after Sinolink Securities Co. recommended insurers. The stock market’s gains were limited as developers fell after the Economic Information Daily reported land demand weakened across China because of a cash crunch.

“Some banks may have started to increase lending as part of the government’s policy fine-tuning,” said Li Jun, a strategist at Central China Securities Co. in Shanghai. “We’re likely to see an improvement in liquidity and that’ll allow the rebound to continue. It’s not to going to be a reversal as economic and earnings growth is still trending down.”

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s stock exchanges, climbed 3.98 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,508.09 at the close, its highest close since Sept. 21. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) rose 0.1 percent to 2,744.30. Asian markets fell after euro-area leaders halted aid payments to Greece and said a referendum on the bailout plan will determine whether the nation becomes the first to exit the 17-country euro area.

[xchrom]

37. PRECIOUS-Gold rises on firmer euro, euro zone turmoil

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/markets-precious-idUKL4E7M308020111103

LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Thursday, helped by a resurgent euro and turmoil hitting financial markets on political chaos in Greece as European leaders contemplated the country's exit from the euro zone.

Gold has been rangebound in the past week or so, with the threat of a potentially disastrous Greek default burnishing gold's safe-haven appeal while fears of a liquidity crunch in case of a default have kept gains in check.

"Some people would have been looking on with horror, buying gold on basis of potential Armagedon because of Greece. That's always there," said Nick Moore, RBS's global commodity stragegist.

Safe haven interest in gold, although lower than previously, still existed, he said.

[xchrom]

38. In Referendum, Greece Seeks Something It Had Lost: Sovereignty

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/11/in-referendum-greece-seeks-something-it-had-lost-sovereignty/247765/

For the past decade or so, foreign policy theorists and columnists have been telling us the era of the nation-state is over; national sovereignty is already eroding, and will only become less relevant. Borders are permeable, citizens and corporations are global, and supranationalism -- think structures like the European Union, United Nations, and World Trade Organization -- abounds.

Yet as European leaders and stunned markets found out on Monday, national sovereignty is alive and well in Greece. Monday morning, Prime Minister Papandreou announced a move that puts Europe's hard-won plan to bail out Greece's at risk. Instead of saying "thank you," the Greek people are now going to vote on whether or not they actually want the bail-out, which comes with strings attached. The other European countries who are putting their own financial security on the line to bail out Greece and other troubled nations are, unsurprisingly, astounded.

As the Wall Street Journal's Terence Roth puts it in a great explainer on the surprise development, "Referendums are anathema in Brussels, where scripted summits and handed-down directives are more the style than popular votes and their messy democratic outcomes."

Referenda have plagued the European supranational structure for years. In 2000, a referendum in Denmark rejected the euro. In 2001, Ireland held a referendum on joining the EU, which failed with a shockingly low turnout (they later joined). A new EU constitution -- "three years in the making," the BBC reminds us -- was scuttled in 2005 after failing to win referenda in France and the Netherlands. More recently, Ireland failed to ratify the Lisbon Treaty in 2008. After some modifications, it passed on the second go-round.

[Demeter]

63. Time to Get a New Theory

and some new theorists. Preferably, some that can't be bought off.

[Roland99]

44. Jefferies -20%, Halted, Unhalted, Halted, Unhalted As Market Seems To Have Found The Next MF

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jefferies-17-all


UPDATE 4: Resumed Trading again

UPDATE 3: JEF halted again

UPDATE 2: JEF resumes trading, dead cat bounce

UPDATE: -20% now, halted

Presented without comment suffice to say that while everyone is focusing on Europe, the US may be about to have its second failed Primary Dealer in a week

[Demeter]

64. And it's about time, too

They've been looking dreadful for weeks...Albus Dumbledore

[Roland99]

46. Consumer Comfort Index And State Of The Economy Almost Record Lows

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/consumer-comfort-index-and-state-economy-almost-record-lows

Bloomberg's consumer comfort index once again confirms what so many know, despite the day to day 3-4% swings in equity markets, that broad-based sentiment is desperately weak. Retail metrics also confirmed retail sales starting to disappoint - as perhaps burning through savings is starting to reach its tipping point - and so perhaps all those charts we have been so vociferous about pointing to the disconnect between spending/growth and sentiment will converge sooner than many suspect. Specifically the State of the Economy index is only fractionally above its record lows from Feb09 - about as bad as it can get!!

http://www.zerohedge.com.nyud.net:8090/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2011/09/20111103_comfecon_0.png

[xchrom]

48. Argentina Is Eliminating Utility Subsidies in Bid to Stem Widening Deficit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/argentina-eliminating-subsidies-for-water-electricity-gas-de-vido-says.html

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is cutting utility subsidies to commercial users in a bid to stem a widening budget deficit in South America’s second-biggest economy.

“Nobody should receive a subsidy that he doesn’t need,” Planning Minister Julio De Vido, who oversees utilities, energy and transportation, said in a press conference in Buenos Aires with Economy Minister and Vice President-elect Amado Boudou.

Utility stocks rose as the announcement fueled speculation that a government cap on rates in effect for a decade may be loosened, said Juan Jose Vazquez, an analyst at Bull Market Brokers SA in Buenos Aires. Cia. de Transporte de Energia Electrica en Alta Tension Transener SA, the country’s main power transporter, rose 1.4 percent at the close in Buenos Aires after gaining 9.4 percent earlier. Pampa Energia SA (PAMP), Argentina’s largest power company, advanced 2.1 percent and earlier rose 6.7 percent.

De Vido said the government isn’t weighing an increase in utility tariffs.

[xchrom]

49. south asia: Sensex ends near 17500; BHEL, DLF, Tata Power up

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/market-news/sensex-ends-near-17500-bhel-dlf-tata-power-up/articleshow/10594494.cms

MUMBAI: The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex bounced back from day's lows to close in the positive terrain as sentiment in global markets turned bullish on expectations of a constructive outcome on Greece's debt bail out plan.

Its been a day of action in Europe ahead of G20 meet. Greece's ruling party lawmaker Dimitris Lintzeris asked the Prime Minister George Papandreou to resign from his post over holding referendum on the chalked out bail-out plan. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel also made clear that the country would not get aid until it agrees to the .

As per the media reports, Papandreou may not hold a referendum in December and is not going to resign.

Back home, the primary articles inflation for the week ended October 22 rose to 12.21 per cent against 11.43 per cent a week ago. Non food inflation was at 6.43 per cent against 7.63 per cent a week ago.

[xchrom]

50. Greece situation does not matter to Indian market: Arun Khurana, UTI AMC

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/analysis/greece-situation-does-not-matter-to-indian-market-arun-khurana-uti-amc/articleshow/10593245.cms

Arun Khurana, Fund Manager, UTI AMC, in a chat with ET Now, talks about Greece crisis and Indian market.

Just purely by virtue of what has happened right now wherein the Greek PM has been asked to resign, there is an emergency cabinet meet being called, do you think this kind of sours the mood as far as the global sentiment goes for the next foreseeable future, maybe in the next two or three weeks?

As of now as I understand, the market seems to be giving confused signals in terms of what is going to happen but more than the Greece part of it, what is more pertinent right now is the slowdown, which is happening at the global level, what is likely to happen at the US level.

If you look at the overall composition of debt, if they extend debt of Greece, it happens to be only about $366 billion, which is a miniscule portion of the overall GDP of the Eurozone and of the entire world, it is less than even 1% for that matter, so fundamentally speaking Greece does not really matter and we have really made a very big issue out of Greece fundamentally speaking.

[xchrom]

51. MFN status to India: Pakistan now ambiguous

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/mfn-status-to-india-pakistan-now-ambiguous/articleshow/10595591.cms

ISLAMABAD: A day after granting MFN status to India, the Pakistan government today appeared to be playing to the gallery by being ambiguous on the issue.

The Foreign Office here said the Cabinet had cleared a move for normalisation of bilateral trade relations that will "culminate" with MFN.

India had granted Pakistan MFN status way back in 1996 but Islamabad had so far held out on reciprocating due to opposition from some trade lobbies and religious and hardline political parties which contended that such a move would harm the country's stand on the Kashmir issue.

At the weekly news conference, Foreign Office spokesperson Tehmina Janjua gave the government's position when she was asked about the confusion surrounding the move to grant India MFN status.




***somehow -- you just knew that would be the case.

[Hotler]

59. Is it me or is the insanity of GD spilling over into LBN.

Make the spinning stop.

[Demeter]

65. The Insanity is from the 1%

as they see their dreams of power and glory evaporate like water in the 99% desert.

They are vicious when cornered.