IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear capability

[TomClash]

Source: Washington Post

Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran’s government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts briefed on the findings.

Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after 2003 — when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying out its findings on Iran’s efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear technology. Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it chooses to has fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military strikes. Some U.S. arms-control groups have cautioned against what they fear could be an overreaction to the report, saying there is still time to persuade Iran to change its behavior.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_story.html

---

Watch the neo-cons, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States lust for war.

[USA_1]

1. WaPo

Same newspaper that told us WMD were all over Iraq.

[LiberalEsto]

2. VERY good point.

The Washington Pest is pretty much the house organ for the CIA.

[TomClash]

6. But even if it is true

What do you do? Attack every Iranian site where part of the program might be? That's insane.

[Celefin]

14. Nice pattern in those four paragraphs

It certainly looks as if WaPo simply recycles articles from 2003.
If you cut the 'filling material' from the above four paragraphs, you get:

>>>
Intelligence provided to nuclear officials shows assistance to overcome hurdles, according to western diplomats and experts. Officials and experts alleged... a former soviet scientist.. to the threshold of capability. Officials citing secret intelligence on weapons-related research. Fears... Iran could choose.
<<<

(wtf? What is a 'nuclear official', okay)

Anyway, keywords: Intelligence, Officials, Experts, Alleged, Threshold, Weapons-related, Fear

Weapons of mass destruction related programs, anyone?

Next up: "This is gonna blow up in our faces".
Because 'we' don't have anything with any substance that doesn't have a very high likelihood for being made up by special interests.
Then we start firing.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. and if true?

:shrug:

[bemildred]

4. In other words, they still got nothing. nt

[AtheistCrusader]

5. Not buying it.

Then again, I didn't buy it last time, and ho ho ho, off to Iraq we go anyway.

[L. Coyote]

7. I'd say the military threats Iran faces have done it! Peace would prevent this problem.

What would you do if your neighbors threatened to blow up your house?

[SpartanDem]

8. In Iraq's case it was the UN saying that they didn't have weapons

the US ignored them and went to war anyway. So I'm not sure why people are comparing this to Iraq.

[FarCenter]

9. IAEA due to expose Iranian nuclear weapons design and testing facility

For those countries which have faith in the IAEA's reporting and analysis, the question will remain of what to make of the findings. They do not quite add up to a smoking gun. They suggest that while research on weapons did continue after 2004, it was largely restricted to computer modelling rather than building things and blowing them up. There is no evidence that Iran has decided to make a nuclear weapon, just that it appears to looking at the technical options should it one day make that decision, and meanwhile amassing an uranium stock that potentially provide the fissile cores for its warheads.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2011/nov/07/iran-nuclear-weapons

[SOS]

10. "Foreign experts" will be dead soon

"It was a little less than a year ago when Majid Shahriari and his wife were stuck in traffic at 7:40 a.m. and a motorcycle pulled up alongside the car. There was a faint “click” as a magnet attached to the driver’s side door. The huge explosion came a few seconds later, killing him and injuring his wife.

On the other side of town, a nearly identical attack played out against Fereydoon Abbasi, a nuclear scientist. Mr. Abbasi recognized what was happening and pulled himself and his wife out just before his car turned into a fireball. Iran has charged that Israel was behind the attacks — and many outsiders believe the “sticky bombs” are the hallmarks of a Mossad hit."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/sunday-review/the-secret-war-with-iran.html

[Hamlette]

11. why does Ikea care about Iran?

oh, never mind.

[closeupready]

12. And the takeaway here is supposed to be ... what?

??

[Turborama]

13. Iran nuclear report: IAEA claims Tehran working on advanced warhead

Source: The Guardian

The UN's nuclear watchdog will publish new details on Wednesday on alleged Iranian work on an advanced design for a nuclear warhead developed with the help of a former Soviet scientist, according to nuclear experts.

The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which will also identify a suspect site where warhead components have been tested, is the most detailed presentation to date of its evidence for recent nuclear weapons research in Iran.

It is expected to raise tensions in an already volatile region, amid reports that Israel, the US and the UK are weighing military options aimed at setting back the Iranian nuclear programme. Israeli officials are telling western capitals that the report represents the "last chance" for a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear crisis.

Iranian officials have already denounced the report as "counterfeit" and there are doubts, even in Washington and London, whether the IAEA evidence will be enough to convince Russia and China to abandon their opposition to further economic sanctions, let alone countenance air strikes.

Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/07/iran-working-on-advanced-nuclear-warhead

[Purveyor]

15. IAEA Warns Of Improved Iran Nuclear Program Capability; Israel Strike Speculation Builds

Source: washingtonpost

Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran’s government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts briefed on the findings.

Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after 2003 — when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying out its findings on Iran’s efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear technology. Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it chooses to has fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military strikes. Some U.S. arms-control groups have cautioned against what they fear could be an overreaction to the report, saying there is still time to persuade Iran to change its behavior.

MORE...

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iaea-warns-of-improved-iran-nuclear-program-capability-israel-strike-speculation-buils/2011/11/07/gIQANi77vM_story.html

[Arctic Dave]

16. blah blah blah. More neocon warmongering.

Who cares if the do get a bomb. Not me. If they have a hundred my reaction would still be, who cares.

[iandhr]

17. To quote Jed Bartlet...

from the episode that dealt with an India/Pakistan crisis where nukes were given to field commanders "Call in Dr. Stranglelove and were all set."

[Celefin]

18. Weapons of mass destruction related program activities?

Geez... not THAT shit again.

Unnamed officials, secret intelligence reports, alleged tech-transfer from axis-of-evil states and some foreign, rogue nuclear scientist with a mission to blow up the US.

The least we could expect for the trillions thrown at the MIC is one or two decent script-writers, no?

[AverageJoe90]

19. Oh, not this shit again.

Honestly, this has been going on since about the first few days of the Iraq War.........you know, the truth is: we may just have to wait until Iran strikes first. But if they do hit Tel Aviv, or Haifa, or BOTH, with atom bombs, then it would be almost certain that Tehran would become the most hated government in the world..........and what if the Iranians decided to bomb Damascus if the revolution against al-Assad became successful?
Certainly, even Russia's Putin would try to stay as far away from them as possible.......not that Moscow & Tehran were ever real close to begin with, TBH.

[bemildred]

20. "Speculation builds"

:rofl:

[SkyDaddy7]

21. So, the UN is now doing the work of Neocons?

That does not make a bit of sense...I trust the UN more than I trust the CIA...And the CIA claimed Bush scared Iran into stopping its program when that appears not to be true.

I guess nuclear war is not far away...Saudi Arabia & the rest of the hardline Sunni States will have their own nukes within no time. There is nothing but nastiness coming.

Just keeping things real.

[Celefin]

22. The IAEA is not synonymous with the UN

Anyway, how about letting them all have their nukes and let the UN provide a free, sophisticated early warning system to all of them as well.

Really simple system: You push that button, you die - because all the others know who's gonna get hit and who pushed the button.
Voila - peace.
There's no fun in being a power hungry fanatic when you're going to be a vaporized power hungry fanatic, without even coming close to achieving your goal AND LOOKING REALLY STUPID while doing so. There's not even a remote possibility of somebody doing a pilgrimage to your grave, either. Real bummer that one.

In the meantime, the rest of the world could get on with more important business and cut down immensely on defense spending while the usual suspects are busy peering over their respective sights at each other. As you rightly pointed out, everybody in that region is going to have nukes sooner or later anyway. Might as well do it in an orderly fashion and get some benefit from it.

Nukes are only fun when the other side doesn't have them. In that case, all they are is expensive.
Prime example: Our foreign policy.

[SkyDaddy7]

23. One BIG flaw in your plan...

That does not work with regimes & dictators who think dying in a nuclear war is a way to bring on the apocalypse! Just sayin.

Did you know all it would take is maybe 10 nuclear detonations anywhere in the world & civilization is over. If a nuclear winter sets in & we can't grow anything then thats it.

Call this scare tactics if you wish but it is also physics in action.

I am not saying I have a solution but I am not ready for a nuclear Middle East...Other regimes that actually care about living are not what concerns me. But what does is a Sunni vs Shia religious war!!

[Celefin]

26. We'll have to disagree on that one I guess

At the very least, I'd be more worried about a potential endtimers US president who'd want to bring on the rapture.
I can't think of any regimes & dictators who currently would want to bring on the apocalypse. Especially not dictators, as they tend to be very fond of earthly pleasures.
Neither Sunni nor Shia are 100% batshit I'd say. And the apocalypse-thing is more of a christian fetish. Again, what -would- worry me is a bible-thumping US president, having the actual means to obliterate the planet's biosphere.

Which brings me to your next point: with all due respect, I have to dispute your 10 nuclear detonations hypothesis (even if that is totally not the topic of this thread).
It would take a LOT more, the earth system isn't that fragile.

As an example, the Mount Tambora volcanic eruption 1815 has been estimated at a force of 800 megatons (equivalent to about 80 'Ivy Mike' hydrogen bombs or 50000+ 'little boy'), causing the 'Year without a summer' in 1816 due to global dimming by sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere (btw. something proposed for geo-engineering to combat global warming). The eruption ejected 160 cubic kilometers of material, sending a massive plume into the stratosphere and causing total darkness up to 600 km away.

Now nuclear explosions don't produce sulfate aerosols and although they whip up a lot of dust, it is nowhere near to these numbers. Additionally, there is very little biomass to burn in desert environments, again reducing the climatic impacts caused by smoke and soot from widespread fires. So, if for example Israel decided on a permanent solution for it's hostile neighbors and used all of it's suspected 200 bombs to turn the middle east into a parking lot, it would certainly be felt on a global scale. It would certainly cause problems for agriculture and probably famines in poorer countries the following year, but it wouldn't be more than a temporary dent in world population.

Mind you, I'm not belittling the potential for a billion+ deaths resulting from this, just pointing out that our 'civilization', for what it's worth, needs a lot more to wipe out. I do NOT think nuclear war or for that matter nuclear proliferation is to be taken lightheartet.
That's why I'd personally prefer monitored, organized proliferation for countries hellbent on acquiring the damn things anyway, assuring MAD at any one point.

[Nihil]

27. Well, they got the UK government to do it last time so maybe they're just sharing the load?

You also appear to be forgetting that the US is part of the UN
(whenever it wants to be, of course) and has been more than capable
of "directing" the slant of politically sensitive reports in the past.

Just keeping things real.

[tcaudilllg]

24. Gee it looks like Russia wants Iran to have the bomb. n/t

[fascisthunter]

25. looks like the neo-cons can't get enough boogeymen

for their desire more death and destruction.