STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 23 April

[ozymandius]

Friday April 23, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 276
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 133 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 1865 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 400
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 882
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 22, 2004

Dow... 10,461.20 +143.93 (+1.40%)
Nasdaq... 2,032.91 +37.28 (+1.87%)
S&P 500... 1,139.93 +15.84 (+1.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.37% -0.05 (-1.18%)
Gold future... 393.90 +2.50 (+0.64%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Canadian Energy Companies – Technical Analysis Indicates Critical Juncture

This article was conceived as my first completely bullish article since beginning with FSO. Since it is springtime, the sun is out, and the weather warm, I wanted to post an article that was full of positive thoughts. I wanted to focus on a sector that was showing bullish chart patterns in an overextended stock market. After all, since beginning this job in September of 2003, even in the face of some very impressive bullish rallies, I have not yet succumbed to waiving the Wall Street pom-poms. Nevertheless, with the Nasdaq a good three-day’s work (100 points higher) from when I started writing for FSO, I figured I would write a good old bullish technical analysis article. Sometimes it gets tiresome being so negative; even if doing so is the fundamentally right thing to do. Since one of my current holdings Talisman Energy, is doing well, I decided to focus on Canadian Energy companies. Oil and gas are in a bull market, right? Yes, this is going to be an uplifting experience. What could be more positive than writing nice things about low-P/E companies with tons of cash flow, managements that have friendly Canadian accents, and are purchasing their own shares on the open market?

However, while the overall trend appears to be as bullish as my initial intentions, technical analysis indicates that it may not be all sunshine and light for these companies in the short term. In tonight’s Wrap Up, I will take a technical look at some key Canadian Energy companies that trade in the US. I confine this article to the technical charts; however, I think that the companies in this sector have very compelling fundamental valuations and excellent long-term prospects. Unlike the homebuilders and technology stocks where insiders are bailing out like there is no tomorrow, there is significant insider buying in the Canadian energy sector. If you are interested in the fundamentals of these companies, you should see the FSO work of Bill Powers, editor of the Canadian Energy Viewpoint Investment Newsletter.

<cut>
Today’s Market

If you owned stocks today you made money. Earnings before items and one-time events beat analyst expectations almost across the board, and Wall Street cheered. The weekly jobless numbers were just bad enough to make traders confident that the Fed would not raise interest rates soon enough for the speculative party to end. The producer price numbers showed significant inflation, but traders didn’t care. Why? Because yesterday Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said, “As yet, the protracted period of monetary accommodation has not fostered an environment in which broad-based inflation pressures appear to be building.” Lucky for the speculative stock market that Greenspan still has credibility. I would bet that the statements coming from the Fed at this point are completely centered on holding up the stock market. So much of the so-called economic growth is directly related to the “wealth effect” that is tied to the stock market. (Remember that term? I’d also bet that CNBC has an internal memo instructing all talking heads to not use the ‘90s term, “wealth effect”.) One can only wonder what the effect would be if Mr. Greenspan’s credibility were ever questioned on a significant scale. While many economic data statistics from the Government can be spun successfully, inflation is the most difficult. Even the most obtuse citizens can see when their supermarket, car repair, and beer bill is increasing. It will be very interesting to see if they can keep the music playing until Election Day. Some of my money says they can’t.

It was a good day in the Canadian Oil patch as 3 of the 4 stocks featured above were up solidly. Talisman was the strongest of the bunch. However, heartening the share price appreciation was to me, an owner of Talisman stock, it has to be tempered by the fact that the leaders of today’s action were some of the companies with the most question marks. Why do any fundamental research when it’s the companies that say the most “nice things” that do the best, regardless of what they are worth as investments?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.77 Change -0.05 (-0.06%)

related articles:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/emergingmarkets/newswire/2004/04/22/rtr1344132.html

China's Wu says stable yuan in world's interest

WASHINGTON, April 22 (Reuters) - China is committed to eventually moving to a floating exchange rate but must move cautiously to avoid upsetting trade and investment flows, Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi said on Thursday.

"It is in the interest of not only China but Asia and the world to keep the RMB (yuan) exchange rate relatively stable at a rational and balanced level," Wu said in a speech prepared for delivery to U.S. business leaders.

Wu said China's long-standing policy of pegging the yuan at about 8.28 to the U.S. dollar was well suited to China's current stage of economic development.

"It also creates a stable financial environment for trade and investment between China and other countries," she said.

But Wu said China was committed to moving toward a flexible exchange rate as economic conditions allow.

...more...

http://www.forbes.com/home/newswire/2004/04/23/rtr1344507.html

FOREX-Dollar takes a breather ahead of data, G7 meeting

LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - The dollar held steady against the euro on Friday, taking a pause from its recent rally ahead of a Group of Seven (G7) meeting, data on U.S. durable goods orders and a host of Federal Reserve speakers.

The yen staged an about-turn after dropping to a one-month low around 131.00 per euro after German- American carmaker DaimlerChrysler said it would sell its 37 percent stake in Mitsubishi, worth around 175 billion yen. Daimler said later no decision had been made on the stake.

With the dollar trading about 10 cents above February's record lows against the euro, currencies are expected to be less of an issue at this meeting than in February when the G7 decried "excess volatility" and urged greater exchange rate flexibility in some economic areas.

"The overriding feature continues to be the U.S. outlook and Fed comments. The dollar is slightly on the back foot. Comments from (Fed officials) do suggest rate hikes are in the pipeline but they don't suggest these are imminent," said Kamal Sharma, currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

...more...

[Frodo]

3. That's a big "Wow!" on the Durable Goods Orders report.

Up 3.4% on and expected rise of .7%

Plus last month's figure was revised from 2.5% up to 3.8%

[UpInArms]

5. here's a link to that Durable Goods Report

http://www.forbes.com/markets/economy/newswire/2004/04/23/rtr1344653.html

TABLE-U.S. March durable goods orders rose 3.4 pct
WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Department
seasonally adjusted data on durable goods orders, with percent
changes from prior months.
PERCENT CHANGES: Mar Feb Jan
New Orders 3.4 3.8 -2.6
Ex-Transportation 3.3 1.1 0.7
Ex-Defense 3.8 3.2 -2.2
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders 3.2 3.9 -1.6
Primary Metals 7.2 3.8 4.4
Gen. Machinery 3.1 3.8 -4.5
Computers/Electronics 0.2 2.7 4.2
Computer/related unch 2.4 -8.7
Communications -8.6 6.5 64.8
Electrical/appliances 0.8 3.0 3.8
Transp. Equip. 3.6 11.0 -10.3
Motor vehicles/parts 3.6 6.0 -4.3
Nondefense aircraft/
parts 11.7 33.3 -32.5
Defense aircraft/
parts -27.7 50.4 -36.0
Capital goods 0.9 6.1 -3.5
NonDefense cap goods 2.1 4.5 -2.7
NonDefense cap goods
ex aircraft 2.4 2.8 -0.4
Defense cap goods -6.1 16.7 -8.1
PERCENT CHANGES: Mar Feb Jan
Total unfilled orders 0.8 0.8 unch
Total inventories 0.1 0.4 0.1
Total shipments 3.2 1.7 -1.0
Semiconductor shipments 1.7 3.5 7.4
BILLIONS OF DLRS: Mar Feb Jan
New Orders 192.712 186.416 179.506
Ex-Transportation 135.708 131.400 129.947
Ex-Defense 181.834 175.149 169.779
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders 136.072 131.867 126.901
Primary Metals 13.553 12.638 12.173
Gen. Machinery 24.549 23.807 22.935
Computers/Electronics 32.093 32.044 31.199
Computer/related 8.116 8.114 7.927
Communications 6.678 7.304 6.855
Electrical/appliances 8.888 8.819 8.563
Transp. Equip. 57.004 55.016 49.559
Motor vehicles/parts 40.590 39.174 36.940
Nondefense aircraft/
parts 6.126 5.483 4.114
Defense aircraft/
parts 2.626 3.634 2.417
Capital goods 72.189 71.533 67.409
NonDefense cap goods 62.492 61.208 58.564
NonDefense cap goods
ex aircraft 60.443 59.037 57.441
Defense cap goods 9.697 10.325 8.845
BILLIONS OF DLRS: Mar Feb Jan
Total unfilled orders 514.451 510.124 506.184
Total inventories 264.678 264.426 263.276
Total shipments 195.225 189.199 186.115
Semiconductor shipments 6.840 6.723 6.495
N/A - not available

PREVIOUSLY REPORTED PERCENT CHANGES:

Feb Jan Dec

Durable Goods 2.5 -2.6 1.7

Factory Orders 0.3 -0.9 1.8

FORECAST:

U.S. March durable goods orders +0.8 pct

U.S. March durables ex-transportation +1.1 pct

HISTORICAL COMPARISONS/NOTES:

U.S. MAR DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION RISE LARGEST SINCE
+3.8 PCT IN APRIL 2002

U.S. MAR DURABLES SHIPMENTS RISE LARGEST SINCE +3.5 PCT IN
APRIL 2002

(Washington newsroom, [phone], fax +1 202
898-8383,[e-mail]))

[54anickel]

9. Hail to the thief, the tax cuts are working! Deficits don't matter! We

only owe it to ourselves! :grr:

Oh but wait, what was that China just stated:

Li also cautioned that the United States shouldn't assume that China will keep buying U.S. Treasury securities indefinitely. If the United States doesn't protect the value of the dollar so that it is a stable "anchor," China will eventually move to hold its reserves in a basket of currencies, he said.

And didn't Russia recently claim the would begin holding their reserves in a basket of currencies based on the Euro and US$ as well?

Oh yeah, and Japan talked about diversifying their reserve holdings - basket of currencies and maybe a little bit of gold.

Hmmm, yep pretty soon we will just owe the majority of it to ourselves.

So, how are they doing on revising that AMT tax these days anyway? :grr: :nuke:

[54anickel]

7. Couple of articles on the Durable goods report

Durable Goods Orders Jump in March
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35950-2004Apr23.html

Orders to factories for costly manufactured goods, such as cars and machinery, rose by a strong 3.4 percent in March, fresh evidence that America's economic recovery is bounding ahead.

The sizable over-the-month increase in durable-goods orders came after an even better 3.8 percent advance in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Durable goods are big-ticket items expected to last at least three years.

The strength in March was broad based and far exceeded the 0.7 percent increase that economists were forecasting.

snip>

In the manufacturing report, orders for cars rose by 3.6 percent in March, after a 6 percent gain in February. For machinery, orders went up 3.1 percent last month, following a 3.8 percent advance.

Other categories posting gains last month included primary metals, including steel, fabricated metal products, and electrical equipment and appliances. There were a few weak spots: orders for communications equipment fell and orders for computers were flat in March.


http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4922387

snip>

The gain was broad-based, as orders excluding transportation goods rose 3.3 percent and orders outside the national defense sector were up 3.8 percent. The ex-transportation reading was the strongest in almost two years.

The report signals more good news for the recovering U.S. manufacturing sector, which had been hit hard by the 2001 recession and reluctance by businesses afterwards to invest in new plants and equipment.

February orders were revised sharply upward, as well. Instead of the previously reported 2.5 percent gain, the Commerce Department said February orders were up 3.8 percent. Orders have risen in three of the last four months.

Within the report, primary metals orders were up 7.2 percent, the biggest gain since October 2003, while orders for machinery rose 3.1 percent. Computer and electronic products, however, registered a comparatively modest 0.2 percent increase.

One notable decline in the report was seen in defense-related capital goods orders, which slipped 6.1 percent, their second decline in three months.

[54anickel]

4. More on China

edit to remove redundant article posted by UIA. Guess great minds think alike. :-)

Fragile China
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1079420556206

The weekend meetings of the Group of Seven/Eight rich countries will be notable for an absentee: China, the country on whose actions the near-term future of the world economy substantially depends. Despite feelers put out to it some years ago, China is not yet a member of the elite group of industrial countries that will gather on the fringes of the International Monetary Fund meetings. That is a pity. Today, China faces the challenge of coping with what seems an increasingly overheating economy. How it responds will have big international ramifications and merits active global discussion.


The signs are that China's economy is now outgrowing even its rapidly rising potential. Inflation has turned decisively positive, pushing real interest rates lower. Investment has continued to rocket upwards in the first quarter of this year, driven by a continuing domestic economic boom, itself stimulated by massive foreign currency inflows and soaring foreign currency reserves. The price of investment goods has also shot higher. This suggests the emergence of capacity constraints that could feed into consumer price inflation before too long. The price of China's exports also appears to have stopped falling, which suggests it will start exporting inflation abroad.

The Chinese authorities' difficulty is that the tools they have for managing the economy are uncertain in their effects. Since commercial banks do not face an effective bankruptcy constraint, it is difficult to stop them from lending with market-based instruments, such as higher interest rates. The efficacy of increasing bank reserve requirements, as the People's Bank of China has already done, is also unclear. Persuading banks to rein in lending to local state enterprises for over-ambitious investments, or putting pressure on the enterprises themselves, may also have limited effect.

snip>

For the moment, the Chinese authorities should try to keep the boom within manageable limits by pulling all the monetary levers they have. But they should also move swiftly towards a more flexible, if also heavily managed, exchange rate. Not least, China should be reinvited to join the G8. It is too important to be left outside.


Greenspan: China may be overheating
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-04/21/content_325126.htm

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warns there is increasing concern in China that its economy is overheating. But Greenspan believes China can reset its currency peg without destabilizing its banking system if it does so carefully.

snip>

China says a move to greater yuan flexibility is desirable, but it will not happen in the short term because of the damage it might cause to Chinese and Asian economic stability.

In remarks to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, Greenspan said the major problem for China was not so much the strong demand for commodities. Rather, it was the inceasing concern "that they are overheating as a consequence of fairly rapid increases in the money supply, which has been going up approximately 20 percent a year."

snip>

"Clearly (there's) going to be at some point -- hopefully ooner rather than later -- a reduction, if not the ultimate removal, of the capital controls on Chinese residents in the accumulation of foreign assets," he said.

more...

Is China's Economy Overheating?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25793-2004Apr19.html

snip>

China's leaders are struggling with the question of whether to move toward full convertibility of its currency, the renminbi. U.S. officials have been urging that step, believing it would lead to an appreciation of 20 percent or more that would slow China's exports and rate of growth. Li's boss, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, said over the weekend that "building a more market-driven trading system for the renminbi is now a task of top priority." But Li, speaking a few days earlier, said he worried that full convertibility could be destabilizing by allowing surges of speculative capital in and out of China.

Like many Chinese, Li has been studying what happened to the Japanese bubble economy, and he worries that an appreciating Chinese currency could make the bubble here worse. The sharp rise in the Japanese yen during the 1980s pushed real estate and stock prices to unrealistic levels, he notes.

Li also cautioned that the United States shouldn't assume that China will keep buying U.S. Treasury securities indefinitely. If the United States doesn't protect the value of the dollar so that it is a stable "anchor," China will eventually move to hold its reserves in a basket of currencies, he said.

China's debate about overheating has received relatively little attention in the West, but the issue could be the most important challenge for the global economy. The Chinese locomotive has been pulling Japan and other Asian nations into recovery. If China slowed suddenly, the global economy would feel the crunch.

China's leaders seem to understand that the world is counting on them to get economic policy right. "Neighboring countries are dependent on us," Li said. "If we have a hard landing, they will be affected."

[UpInArms]

6. Good Friday Morning 54anickel and all the Marketeers!

yes, great minds do think alike :D



I guess I will take a wait and see for the day - that jump on the markets yesteday was definitely a sight to see :evilgrin:

It was almost as though so invisible hand was pushing :D

Maybe they had early access to that Durable Goods Report?

[54anickel]

8. Early access? Nah, come on that couldn't happen. Seems Mr

Greenspin might have had a glimpse though. From the WA Post article posted above -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35950-2004Apr23.html

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in an appearance on Capitol Hill earlier this week, delivered upbeat assessments of the nation's economic health and said that March turned out to be a good month for the economy.

snip>

Some economists believe the Fed will begin to boost rates later this year, while others don't foresee higher rates until 2005.

On edit add - I was about to post the Table on Durable Goods as well, saw you beat me to it just before I hit post for those related articles.
Sarcasm on that Nah comment as well. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

10. 9:56 update

Dow 10,431.96 -29.24 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,046.12 +13.21 (+0.65%)
S&P 500 1,137.29 -2.64 (-0.23%)
10-yr Bond 4.438% +0.067
30-yr Bond 5.234% +0.044

9:45AM: After a higher open, the major averages have started to weaken... Accordingly, the blue-chip indices are flirting with negative territory, while the Nasdaq is able to maintain its standing in positive territory, with moderate gains... The Nasdaq's relative outperformance is being supported by a batch of better than anticipated earnings reports from the likes of Microsoft (MSFT 27.43 +1.48), Broadcom (BRCM 42.28 +1.48), Amgen (AMGN 58.57 +1.43), and Gilead (GILD 62.69 +3.47), to name a few...
Overall, Q1 earnings reports have been coming in very strong, with an impressive 75% of the total companies delivering better than anticipated results... This morning's Durable Orders report for March checked in at 3.4% (consensus 0.7%), while the February report was revised to 3.8% from 2.5%... This is a stellar report, suggesting that business investment is booming... Interestingly, the futures market tailed off on the heels of the announcement, as participants were spooked by the potential of rising interest rates, which continues to limit the market's upside...

[whatelseisnew]

11. WTF is up with the Dow chart!!?

I know this is an updating graphic so if they fix it you will not see what I am talking about.

At the time of this post the chart show approx correct time but says

dow is up 115.60 , yet the total 10432.87 is down from yesterday's close.

This chart frequently has odd update problems, often stalling out

and not updating while the daq and s&p seem mostly correct(sometimes they all seem to freeze)

No big deal, just something I have noticed over time.

Happy Friday, Marketeers

[Maeve]

14. Yeah, it was messed up

Back to normal, now. did make one wonder...


I prefer to check http://finance.yahoo.com/mo for more up-to-the-minute data, but the charts don't 'carry" as well.

[54anickel]

12. 11:18 update

Dow 10,432.35 -28.85 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,041.84 +8.93 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,137.12 -2.81 (-0.25%)
10-yr Bond 4.446% +0.075
30-yr Bond 5.246% +0.056

NYSE Volume 493,898,000
Nasdaq Volume 806,126,000

11:00AM: The Dow and the S&P 500 slip to fresh session lows, pulling the Nasdaq lower with them... Accordingly, the Nasdaq is off its morning highs now, although it's able to maintain its standing in positive territory... At their current levels, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are looking for a slightly higher end to the week versus last Friday's closing levels... The Dow, which is spearheading today's weakening, is trading below last Friday's closing levels and is shaping up for a down week... Note that the Dow is flirting with its 50-day simple moving average at 10427...
Should the composite pull below this technically significant level on convincing volume, the broader market may experience increased selling pressure, as well...NYSE Adv/Dec 853/2123, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1109/1700

10:30AM: The blue-chip averages are extending their losses, while the Nasdaq continues to vacillate near its morning highs... As mentioned previously, the Durable Orders report, a leading indicator for manufacturing despite being volatile and subject to large revisions, came in at 3.4%, well above the consensus of 0.7%... As explained in Briefing.com's Economic Briefing, this report is indicative of a booming economy and business investment - positives for U.S. companies...

Yet, the stock market is using the Durable Orders report as an excuse to take some money off the table, as it contributes to concerns surrounding a sooner than anticipated rate hike by the Fed... To that extent, after trading with the 10-year note yield at 4.37% earlier this morning, the bond market has pulled back... Currently, the 10-year note is down 20/32, bringing its yield up to 4.46%...

[54anickel]

13. Some articles regarding IMF/World Bank

IMF: Growth hinges on debt deal
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/international/latin_america/8497348.htm?ERIGHTS=1730195488485832171miami::[e-mail]&KRD_RM=9pppyxvpqyxuysswrvsppppppp|juanita|Y

WASHINGTON - (AFP) -- Argentina must resolve a wrangle with private creditors on its massive debt if it is to sustain rapid economic growth, the International Monetary Fund warned Thursday.

Acting IMF managing director Anne Krueger said she had a disagreement with Buenos Aires because she believed achieving sustainable economic growth was one of the best ways to address poverty and social needs.

snip>

Argentina, which defaulted on $81 billion in bonds in January 2001, has offered to repay about one-quarter of that amount, a proposition that private creditors have flatly rejected. Addressing the debt and achieving a stronger ''primary budget surplus,'' which excludes the cost of debt repayments, would provide a better assurance of the sustainability of economic growth, Krueger said.

She said Turkey's financial crisis in many ways was as severe as that of Argentina.

But Turkey had chosen to carry on servicing its debt, and it was now running a primary surplus of 6.5 percent of gross domestic product, achieving economic growth of about 8 percent and lowering inflation. ''Getting economic growth back on a sustainable footing is an objective that, on the one hand, requires addressing the debt issue and, on the other hand, enables the alleviation of poverty,'' the acting IMF chief said.

more...


Unhappy Birthday, World Bank!
Posted by Robbien here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x8194

article: http://www.tompaine.com/feature2.cfm/ID/10286

snip>
Ten years, several regional financial crises and hundreds of worldwide protests later, the cheerful anonymity that shielded these institutions from criticism has long since disappeared. This weekend, protesters will rally outside the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank to wish the financial bodies an unhappy 60th birthday. They will highlight the dramatic manner in which the development debate has changed in just a few years. And they will denounce the nefarious IMF/World Bank policies that remain important elements of the Bush administration's imperious foreign policy.

Perhaps the most remarkable change since protesters began aggressively challenging these institutions is how the mainstream has adopted their criticisms. Today the legitimacy of protestors' demands for IMF/World Bank reform—or at least moderate versions of them—is acknowledged by virtually all fair-minded observers of development policy, including a growing number who have defected from the World Bank itself. Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate and former chief economist at the Bank, states that "even those in the Washington establishment, now that rapid capital market liberalization without accompanying regulations"—a core element of neoliberal globalization that contributed mightily to financial collapse in East Asia—"is dangerous." Stiglitz further argues that demands "such as the need for better ways of restructuring debt might have seemed controversial a short while ago. Today they are either in the mainstream or are gradually being accepted."

snip>

Other changes go beyond rhetoric. In 2000, the Congress passed a measure requiring U.S. opposition to any IMF/World Bank loan mandating "user fees or service charges on poor people for primary education or primary healthcare." The institutions have since abandoned such fees. In past months, Argentina—a star pupil of the IMF that saw its economy implode in late 2001—has bucked the Fund's demands to cut public spending to benefit private creditors. Bank officers and activists alike recognize that this successful act of defiance could make Argentina an influential role model for other countries seeking ways to break the neoliberal stranglehold on their economies.

snip>

Throughout the developing world, huge debts persist despite the fact that many countries have paid back their original loans several times over. As the American Friends Service Committee reports, Nigeria has paid over $16 billion on its original $5 billion loan, yet finds itself owing $32 billion on that same debt.

snip>

How does all this fit in with the White House's wider foreign policy? A pro-corporate vision of "free enterprise" has always held a central place in President Bush's militaristic quest to spread "freedom" throughout the world. In its short time in Iraq, the occupying authority has already succeeded in conducting a radical economic restructuring, privatizing the bulk of the economy and working to chain the country into a multi-billion loan package from—guess who?—the IMF.

more...


When the IMF speaks...
Why U.S. powerbrokers tune out global lender
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7794CF02-7769-4DBF-B240-A52118245C31%7D&siteid=google&dist=google


snip>
"People in the U.S. tend not to have much of an interest in international economic relations," says Michael Klein, an economics professor at Tufts University. "The IMF comes and says 'You have a big problem with your budget deficit,' but we don't borrow money from them, and they don't have any conditionality plans they can force us to deal with it."

snip>
Today, "nobody is pleased with the role of the IMF," said Ian Vasquez, director on the project of global economic liberty at Cato Institute. The trouble boils down to one word: Argentina.

snip>
Adds Vasquez: "There is a big consensus now that bailouts are not a very good function for the IMF to be fulfilling. It is kind of stuck now, because even people within the IMF recognize that. And yet if it doesn't perform that mission, it is not clear what mission it has left in a world where capital flows freely and it is the market that can discipline policymakers."

"To the extent the IMF continues to intervene, it may make matters worse -- it may make policy makers less disciplined and may create moral hazard. What we're left with, as long as IMF exists, is what should its function be?"

snip>
"I don't want to close it down," Edmunds says. "Financial markets left to own devices don't find a very happy equilibrium. Markets tend to lurch from one panic to the next from boom to bust."

Vasquez says the problem is that the IMF is a political institution, not an economic institution. All big decisions are made by the U.S. Treasury and the G-7.

more...

IMF sees the error of some of its ways
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1082671810976&call_pageid=968350072197&col=969048863851

NEW YORK — For years, critics have accused the International Monetary Fund of being a secretive institution that imposes overly austere policies on developing countries and refuses to admit mistakes.

snip>
It conceded last month that it missed warning signs of Argentina's financial crisis of 2001, saying in a report that said it was too optimistic about the country's growth prospects and the success of reforms it had urged.

A year earlier, the IMF published a research paper concluding that in developing countries, rapid financial market liberalization — a long-standing condition for IMF loans — sometimes leads to further instability, not economic growth. It called the results ``sobering.''

snip>
Still, the IMF concedes that its loan terms in the Asian crisis were too austere. Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea, unable to repay foreign debts after a plunge in their currencies, were required to hike interest rates, cut public spending and liberalize financial markets.

Argentina's financial debacle, defaulting on $80 billion of foreign debt, was particularly embarrassing for the IMF because it had been closely advising the country and had held it up as a model. The crisis pushed nearly half the population into poverty and sparked deadly riots.

more...

Rising interest rates threaten global recovery
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2004/04/23/2003137795

The world economy is emerging from a three-year slump with unexpected vigor this year and next, but rising interest rates could pose risks, the IMF said on Wednesday.

snip>
The fund's list of tasks is daunting: the US should take cut its budget deficit, Europe should take steps on structural reforms to open up its labor markets, Japan should take further reform its banking and corporate sectors and China should move towards eventually ending its dollar peg.

"The world has emerged from the winter of recession. The message of this outlook is that instead of dancing the spring and summer away, we should make provisions for the future. Being the ant is boring, but it is prudent economics," Rajan said.

Strength in the US and Chinese economies was hauling the rest of the world out of the slow years, and investment was kicking in as a major engine of activity, the fund report said.

more...

[Maeve]

15. 1:06 update and blather

Dow 10,449.28 -11.92 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,042.85 +9.94 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,138.48 -1.45 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.424% +0.053
NYSE Volume 771,376,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,178,775,000

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
1:00PM: The market continues to improve its standing, retracing some of the distance lost earlier in the session... Accordingly, the blue-chip averages are within only a short reach of the unchanged line... The Nasdaq continues to outperform its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis, supported by better than expected reports from several of its components...

[54anickel]

16. Hmmm, over the lunch hour again. Interesting when you consider

the 11:00 blather and where it was shortly after -

Note that the Dow is flirting with its 50-day simple moving average at 10427...
Should the composite pull below this technically significant level on convincing volume, the broader market may experience increased selling pressure, as well...

on edit - I checked around 11:30 and the Dow was below 10427 and the Nasdaq and S&P were headed down as well. Doesn't show as easily on the charts.

[54anickel]

17. Interesting 12:30 blather and volume look as well

12:30PM: The Dow tested and bounced off its 50-day simple moving average at 10427, inciting mild buying interest in the broader market... Accordingly, the major averages have lifted off their respective session lows, although the Dow and the S&P 500 continue to trade in negative territory... Today's volume is running at a decent pace, particularly on the Nasdaq, where the totals are the heaviest seen in quite some time... Breadth figures are disappointing, though, as decliners are leading advancers by a 3-to-1 margin on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq...

Down volume is outpacing up volume on the NYSE by a 2-to-1 degree, while on the Nasdaq up volume is leading down volume by a slight margin... The number of new 52-week highs versus new lows is lackluster, particularly on the NYSE where 77 new highs are juxtaposed with 101 new lows...NYSE Adv/Dec 799/2377, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1119/1866

[54anickel]

18. Bond traders turn to 1994 for rate clues

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1079420569772

snip>

This week, 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels in nearly eight months after Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, referred to companies regaining pricing power - a comment the markets took as signalling rising inflation.

The 10-year yield reached 4.5 per cent after the comments, up almost a percentage point from the eight-month lows it touched last month. Yesterday, following unexpectedly robust durable goods orders, the two-year yield rose above 2.2 per cent for the first time in 18 months.

Federal Reserve officials, including Mr Greenspan, are on record saying that interest rates must normalise from their historically low levels. As a rule of thumb, a neutral level for the Fed funds rate is considered to be about 2 percentage points above inflation. With core inflation running at about 1.5 per cent, this would involve the rate moving from 1 per cent to about 3.5 per cent - a similar move to that seen in 1994.

more...

[54anickel]

19. 3:15 update

Dow 10,472.55 +11.35 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,047.13 +14.22 (+0.70%)
S&P 500 1,141.07 +1.14 (+0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.450% +0.079
30-yr Bond 5.246% +0.056

NYSE Volume 1,127,664,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,613,350,000

3:00PM: With an hour of trade remaining, the major averages are extending their earlier gains... The market's move higher over the last half an hour coincides with Fed's Bernanke saying that Q1 U.S. GDP growth is likely near 4.5-5%... There's little news to this statement, but the Dow and the S&P 500 have lifted into positive territory, with the Dow having set a fresh session high since the last update... 15 of the Dow's 30 components are trading in the green, with leaders to the upside including 3M (MMM 88.63 +1.68), Microsoft (MSFT 27.47 +1.52), and Intel (INTC 27.49 +0.96)...
As mentioned previously, MSFT reported better than expected earnings last night and is among the primary catalysts for the Nasdaq's relative outperformance of its blue-chip counterparts in today's session...NYSE Adv/Dec 1089/2170, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1299/1807

2:25PM: The major averages are vacillating with the Dow and S&P 500 not swaying far from the flat line and the Nasdaq maintaining its positive bias... The Nasdaq's relative outperformance continues to be supported by a batch of better than anticipated earnings reports from its components, including Microsoft (MSFT 27.46 +1.51), for one... Overall, earnings report have been coming in quite good, with Q1 EPS growth of 26.3% and revenues growth of 12.5% versus last year...

Despite the generally favorable reports, though, the market has not experienced an earnings rally that many expected this quarter, as rising interest rates and the prospect of tougher upcoming year/year comparisons have stymied buying interest...

[54anickel]

20. The maestro of monetary policy

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4816955/

snip>
Yet his comments were ambiguous enough that few analysts had to change their views on when the Fed will raise short-term rates from their current historically low levels.

Forecasters who started out expecting the Fed to move in August came away more convinced than ever of the certitude of their position. Those who believe the Fed will leave rates on hold until after the November election found nothing in Greenspan’s comments to contradict them.

“He kind of left things open,” said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist for Lehman Bros. “There is a countdown happening, but he didn’t give any hint of the exact timing. You can believe what you want.”

snip>
If companies have more pricing power, they can maintain profit margins without continuing the aggressive cost-cutting efforts that have led to sluggish job growth, Stark said. And she said the recent spike in consumer prices has stemmed mainly from rising commodity costs — a far less worrisome development than wage inflation, which has not yet been seen.

snip>
“We’re not talking about traditional inflation, which has always been wage-based,” he said. “If anything, wage growth continues to slow.”


:eyes: Always on the back of the working class, isn't it. Your wages aren't going up, but until they do you'll be paying higher prices for everything.

[54anickel]

21. Closing numbers & blather

Dow 10,472.84 +11.64 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,049.77 +16.86 (+0.83%)
S&P 500 1,140.60 +0.67 (+0.06%)
10-yr Bond 4.452% +0.081
30-yr Bond 5.247% +0.057

NYSE Volume 1,396,279,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,934,592,000

Close: On the one hand, the major averages failed to accomplish much in today's session as they closed basically unchanged versus their respective opening levels... On the other hand, however, today's action was a microcosmic representation of the action seen through most of the past week... Specifically, despite upbeat earnings reports from influential companies such as Microsoft (MSFT 27.52 +1.57), Broadcom (BRCM 42.24 +1.44), Amgen (AMGN 58.15 +1.01), and Gilead (GILD 59.86 +0.64), the major averages spent the morning hours declining...
Particularly interesting was the fact that the stronger than anticipated Durable Orders report, which checked in at 3.4% (consensus 0.7%) was used as an excuse to take some money off the table, since participants viewed it as yet another reason for the Fed to raise interest rates sooner rather than later... To that effect, the bond market pulled back in response to the Durable Orders report, with the 10-year note closing down 17/32, bringing its yield up to 4.45%...

Despite the early weakness, in the second half of the session the market was able to focus on strong Q1 earnings, which have been coming in 26.3% above last year's, leading to a rebound in the major averages, which closed at their session highs and up compared to last Friday's closing levels... Among the leaders to the upside of note were the networking, semiconductor, computer, software, and coal groups... Laggards of note included the internet, REIT, gold, insurance, oil services, broker/dealer, and homebuilding sectors.


Have a great weekend everyone :hi: