STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 30 April

[ozymandius]

Friday April 30, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 269
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 140 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 193 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 407
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 889
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 29, 2004

Dow... 10,272.27 -70.33 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq... 1,958.78 -30.76 (-1.55%)
S&P 500... 1,113.89 -8.52 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.54% +0.07 (+1.63%)
Gold future... 387.10 +1.20 (+0.31%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg - Technical and Anecdotal Evidence Says

It Feels and Smells Like a Nasdaq top

It feels and smells like a stock market top. This is indicated by stock market “get rich quick” schemes, a bullish and complacent press, and (once again), overwhelmingly bullish Wall Street analyst calls. More technical weakness is indicated in the Nasdaq. The percent bullish technical charts for Nasdaq and Financial stocks, and the Nasdaq New High/New Low ratio suggest additional technical weakness in the Nasdaq and other key sectors. While the indicators presented above are only secondary, as in 1999 and 2000, a trend can continue for a considerable period after secondary indicators break down. However, the lack of strong leadership stocks leads me to the conclusion that the primary downtrend will likely take hold soon. With the Nasdaq at about the same level as it was 5-months ago, the bear market rally is probably over.

Stock Market “Get Rich Quick” Schemes Thrive

The degree of wild speculation has reached levels that are even greater than in March 2000. The preponderance of “get rich quick” schemes, especially those involving the stock market, are all over the press and the Internet. I recently found a typical example of such a “get rich quick” scheme recently on the Yahoo! Finance web site. An advertisement includes a picture of popular “stock market guru” reading his PALM computer, while a young man tries to look over his shoulder at the computer. There is a caption suggesting that for a fee, you can know what stocks the guru is buying and selling so that you can do the same thing as him. (They are offering a free trial of this “service”.)

-cut-

Complacency About Absurd Valuations

While complacency may be expected for cheerleaders such as those on CNBC, there seems to even be complacency that extends into the best of the Wall Street media. For example, in “The Trader” section of Barron’s, April 26, 2004 edition, Michael Santoli states, “It would be alarmist to draw any direct parallels between the market’s behavior beginning near the end of that previous streak (2000 peak) and the current period. Even though stocks today are expensive by most historical measures, and there are very few cheap ones, the market’s valuation isn’t near the wild heights of the 2000 peak….” I disagree with Santoli. In fact, measured by the Dow Jones (owners of Barron’s) Industrial Average, valuations now are very similar to the “wild heights” of near the market top, except for some marginal improvement of balance sheets.

Recent Past Performance – Impatient Share flippers Likely to Sell

If the Nasdaq does not make a run soon, owners of the stock could get impatient and sell their stock. Consider Cisco Systems. Cisco stock’s turnover rate is over 200% per year. That means that the typical share of Cisco stock is held less than 6 months. Six months ago, Cisco stock was at about $20/share. With Cisco currently at $23 and change, the typical Cisco owner has a paper gain of about 12%. However, if Cisco does not go up over the next month, the typical owner of Cisco will be about even. In 45 days, the typical owner of Cisco will be “in the red”. Similarly, owners of Intel that bought after late September are now in the red. Whereas you would typically expect investors to be more patient, the very high turnover rates of these and other similar speculative technology stocks indicate that “investors” are buying the stock only “for the rise”. When they don’t get the rise, they will surely sell.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

25. This part I find troubling -

Mutual Fund Inflows Surpass Previous Bubble Peak

Money is pouring into mutual funds at a high rate that also marked the 2000 stock market top. In the wake of recent mutual fund scandals, this is surprising. The mutual fund purchases to redemptions ratio surpassed the previous 5-year high ratio of 1.35 set on the last day of 1999. It now sits at 1.37. The public will be left holding the bag via their mutual funds.

[54anickel]

26. U.S. stock funds take in $1.6 billion in week-AMG

http://www.forbes.com/business/services/newswire/2004/04/30/rtr1355160.html

NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuters) - Investors added a net $1.6 billion to U.S. stock mutual funds in the week ended April 28, according to AMG Data Services.

The inflows were down from $3.3 billion estimated by AMG for the prior week. It was the sixth consecutive week that stock funds have generated positive flows.

AMG, a research firm based in Arcata, California, said 39 percent of the latest inflows went to funds investing in domestic securities, down from 64 percent in the prior week.

Real estate funds saw a net $183 million of outflows, the fourth consecutive week of outflows. Financial/banking funds had outflows of $63 million, the seventh consecutive week of outflows.

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.64 Change +0.07 (+0.08%)

related articles:

DAILY FX COMMENTARY

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102055/content.asp?menu=market&dia=3042004

Daily Market Briefing 30/04/04

Key factors today:

The US Chicago PMI index and consumer confidence data will be significant, although position adjustment may dominate, especially with much of Europe closed on Monday.

Euro/dollar:

The dollar will be unsettled by the sharp retreat after the GDP figures and there will inevitably be caution in the short term with the risk that long speculative positions will be cut ahead of the weekend. US growth is still strong and the case for higher US interest rates is also still intact which will continue to offer underlying dollar protection. Overall, the dollar is now liable to hit resistance at the 1.1880 level, but the Euro will face tough resistance in the 1.20-1.2050 resistance band.

Thursday was marked by volatile trading and a sharp dollar reversal. After challenging the 1.18 level ahead of the US GDP figures, the dollar dipped sharply to a low of 1.1980 in New York after the figures before recovering to 1.1935 in early Europe. Subsequently, the dollar retreated to 1.1950.

The headline US GDP figure was weaker than expected with growth of 4.2% compared with expectations of a figure around 5.0%. There had also been market rumours of a figure close to 6.0%. The fourth-quarter figures were, however, revised up and there was also an increase in inflation. The GDP deflator rose to 2.5% for the first quarter and the closely watched personal consumption inflation index rose to 2.0% from 1.2%. The inflation figures will reinforce the case for a Fed tightening and this will limit the selling pressure on the dollar. The dollar's reaction to the figures does, however, suggest that a Fed tightening has been priced in and the dollar will face tough resistance on any fresh move to the 1.18 region.

Next week's economic data will be very important, especially with the key payroll figures on Friday and the Fed meeting on Wednesday. There will inevitably be caution in the very short term.

Selling pressure on commodity currencies has eased, but there will be further selling on any significant rallies. This will underpin the US dollar to some extent and will also make it difficult for the Euro to strengthen above 1.20.

...more...

U.S. DOLLAR OUTLOOK

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102930/content.asp?menu=forecasts&dia=3042004

Dollar Direction - For this Week 30 April 2004

Yesterday, Dow jone did fairly fall. Then today global indexes will be negetive zone also such as
Nekkei, FTSE100, Dax.

***USD still be strengthening , but it is so much vibrating.
***However,if dow jone still be negative today it is possible that usd should be weaken moderately in us session.

There is a expectation to raise interest rate in uk.
However, bond market is not supporting gbpusd strengthen so much.


Although, gold went back from 377.12 to 387 again, bearish trend of gold is not finish yet.

Bond market is fully supporting the usd strength.

...more...

DAILY CURRENCY OVERVIEW

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106200/content.asp?menu=forecasts&dia=3042004

The Dollar fell sharply yesterday following the disappointing GDP data that showed below forecast growth, the US real GDP figures for the 1st quarter of the year disappointed the market by approximately 1%, but nominal growth was in line with the expectation. This was because the deflator rose by 0.8% from the previous quarter, and higher inflation increases the risk of a US interest rate increase in June. The fear of a hard landing in China is weighing on commodity markets, commodity currencies and Asian currencies. However, while the Dollar has been the beneficiary of this it would perhaps be wrong to conclude that there has been any advancement of independent Dollar strength and now the market is unwilling to buy further into the strong Dollar story. Also the market makers already went bargain hunting for some of these commodities and this undermined dollar sentiment beneath the surface.

The Dollar remained soft for most of the Far East session and we expect to see the extended correction in coming session, before a renewed round of rally into early next week. Regarding today¡¯s trading, the US data such as Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment Index may again be guiding for Dollar, both against Yen as Euro. Further out, US data should continue to have an importance in order to determine the market direction with next week¡¯s ISM data release and the Payrolls data.

For today, EUR/USD is facing up to a possible trend line at 1.2020 and this should most probably hold it for now, unless there are some negative developments on the US data today. It is still unclear if the rallies possess enough momentum to reach the 1.2080 top. We have to see today sessions in order to have clear indication¡¦

...more...

Hello Ozy, 54anickel, and all the Marketeers! Sorry that my participation has been so sporadic of late - but life sometimes does have a way of intervening :shrug:

:hi:

[54anickel]

3. Not much global effect as China slows--Fed's Parry

http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/funds/newswire/2004/04/30/rtr1354694.html

HONOLULU, April 29 (Reuters) - The slowdown in the Chinese economy that Beijing is trying to orchestrate should have little effect on the rest of the world, outgoing San Francisco Federal Reserve President Robert Parry said.

But countries that relied heavily on China for exports could suffer, Parry said in response to questions after delivering his last speech in his current position.

snip>
Economists and investors worry that the anti-growth policies may themselves induce the severe slowdown that the government has been trying to avoid.

snip>
On Friday Chinese state media said the government had ordered sweeping checks on development projects, many of which would be called off.

A Hong Kong newspaper said Beijing would raise interest rates, a step that it has shied away from, partly because it has not wanted to give speculators any more reason to buy its currency, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar but facing strong upward pressure.

[54anickel]

4. Fed's Parry Says U.S. Benefits From Movement of Jobs Overseas

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a2Wkcpmr_xbc&refer=news_index

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy benefits from companies' decisions to move jobs overseas because it creates new employment opportunities and boosts productivity, said Robert Parry, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

``Globalization means that economic activity flows in both directions,'' Parry said in the outline of a prepared speech delivered today at the Bankers Club in Honolulu. ``Although we may lose jobs to foreign workers, we also may gain jobs and boost economic activity,''

snip>
U.S. jobs are being created from the investments of overseas businesses, such as Japan's Honda Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG's Mercedes-Benz brand, Parry said. Toyota Motor Corp. of Japan will have 2,000 people buildings cars in San Antonio in two more years, and South Korea's Samsung Corp. is investing $500 million to expand a Texas manufacturing plant, he said.

Creating Opportunity

In addition, demand for U.S. exports grows as the economies of other countries become stronger, creating opportunities for high-paying jobs in the U.S., he said. Manufacturing in countries such as China has lowered the prices of telecommunications and computer equipment by as much as 30 percent and contributed to the growth of U.S. productivity, Parry said.

``Although, clearly, productivity creates pain for workers who are displaced, most economists agree that higher productivity is a good thing for the economy,'' he said. ``In the long run, higher productivity is the only way to create higher standards of living across the economy.''

more...

[UpInArms]

5. wonder what this change will bring

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/30/politics/30tutw.html?ex=1083902400&?en=912c322ad4d97044&?ei=5062&?partner=GOOGLE

Promoter of U.S. Image Quits for Wall St. Job

WASHINGTON, April 29 - Margaret D. Tutwiler, the State Department veteran who was summoned from abroad to overhaul the public diplomacy effort, said Thursday that she was resigning to take a position at the New York Stock Exchange.

The move was a blow to the Bush administration's hopes to improve America's image and better articulate its policy goals as the country faces growing opposition to the war in Iraq and to its support of Israel's plan to redraw its boundaries.

It also highlighted the administration's difficulty in retaining managers of public diplomacy. Ms. Tutwiler's predecessor in the job was Charlotte Beers, a former New York advertising executive, who resigned in March of last year. At the White House, another official responsible for the administration's international message, Tucker Eskew, quit after about a year.

Ms. Tutwiler, a blunt-spoken Washington insider who served as spokeswoman for Secretary of State James A. Baker III and later went on to become President Bush's ambassador to Morocco, heads to the stock exchange after a management shake-up there.

...more...

[54anickel]

7. Ewww, interesting story there UIA! Seems Marketing is what this

maladmin is all about.

It also highlighted the administration's difficulty in retaining managers of public diplomacy.

Maybe because they don't practice diplomacy? How "Dibert=esque" in a twisted, reversed sort of way. HA!

Her new title at the stock exchange will be executive vice president for communications and government relations, the statement said. Ms. Tutwiler will leave on June 30, a pivotal date for the American-led forces in Iraq, when the authorities plan to transfer sovereignty to Iraqis. Mark Helmke, a policy aide to Senator Richard G. Lugar, the Indiana Republican, said Ms. Tutwiler's departure would probably mean that her job, under secretary of state for public affairs, would remain vacant until well into next year. It will be difficult to find a replacement in the short period before the November election, he noted, and with the expected departure of Secretary of State Colin L. Powell by year's end, the delay could be compounded.

The gov't looses a top gun marketing person to "the other side". Sort of makes you wonder why Wall Street is going to need a marketing top gun, doesn't it. :tinfoilhat:

An extensive report on public diplomacy in the Arab and Muslim world, released in October, painted a dire picture of American efforts to reach out to foreign countries and build support for Washington's actions. The bipartisan report, called "Changing Minds, Winning Peace," found that America's prestige had dwindled, that its good works were largely ignored and that it lacked strategic direction in its message.

A bit off topic, but did you catch Frontline on PBS last night? I only caught the last 1/2 hour. Talk about freaking scary!!! It will be available online May 1.

Ozy, you may be interested in catching this one!

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/jesus/

[ozymandius]

17. Thanks for the note.

Our local station aired this at 1am. I missed it, of course. But this evangelical world view is not unknown to me.

This is a facet of Bush's personality that alternately fascinated and horrified me. As I have known a few Christian dispensationalists in my days, I can say without fear of contradiction that they are a freaky lot. The Rapture will make all things well and especially well for the "chosen" few - according to them.

Being a good pagan it is anathema to me that we can lie, cheat, steal and kill at will and all under the auspices of good Evangelical Christian, American values. The very idea that Bush can do whatever he wants inside and outside legal boundaries under any terms is sickening. It is especially sickening when political ideology is bundled with religious despotism. When one extrapolates the lines of this philosophy, it is not too difficult to see a conclusion not unlike that visited upon the followers of the Reverend Jim Jones. And this gives more credence to the expression "drinking the cool-aid" - referring to the adherents of the Bush philosophy of governance and social justice.

Thanks for the heads-up 54anickel. Now - off to work I go.

EDIT: clarity

[54anickel]

6. Don't blame BPO for US job losses

Be sure and check out some of the articles linked to this one at the bottom! Very interesting stuff there.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/650504.cms

NEW YORK: The number of jobs that have moved to low-wage countries in recent years is small compared with the usual turnover in the giant US economy, outgoing San Francisco Federal Reserve President Robert Parry said.

snip>
"The data suggest that, in terms of office work, the US insources far more than it outsources," Parry said, noting although in 2003 the US bought about $77 billion worth of business and other services from foreigners, it also sold about $130 billion worth to foreigners.

snip>
He cited estimates that between 100,000 and 170,000 jobs were lost to foreign workers between 2000 and 2003.

"Those numbers sound high, but they don't sound high when you put them in context of all the job turnover that occurs every year in the US," with about 15 million jobs lost each year through layoffs, firings and voluntary moves.

Parry quoted other figures -- including some 6.5 million workers employed by foreign firms in the US in 2001 -- to illustrate the benefits of globalisation.

more...

[54anickel]

8. Consumer Spending Gain Less Than Expected

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5001497§ion=news

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending posted a smaller-than-expected rise in March and more of each shopping dollar paid for price hikes instead of products, a government report showed on Friday.

Personal spending rose 0.4 percent in March, the Commerce Department said, well below market expectations of a 0.7 percent gain. Adjusted for inflation, so-called real spending advanced a meager 0.1 percent.

While spending was softer in March than analysts had predicted, the department bumped up readings on spending in the prior two months.

Prices for U.S. bonds moved higher and the euro gained on the dollar as investors bet the softer-than-expected figures did little to further build a case for summer interest rate hikes.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Winn-Dixie to Close or Sell 156 Stores, Cut Jobs (Update2)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=asfoDdOTRIc8&refer=top_world_news

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. said it plans to close 45 supermarkets and sell 111 more after third-quarter profit dropped 99 percent.

As many as 10,000 workers will be affected by the plan to shed one in seven of its 1,078 stores in the next year, the Jacksonville, Florida-based grocer said in a statement. Third-quarter net income fell to $610,000 as sales declined 5.5 percent to $2.67 billion.

Chief Executive Frank Lazaran, 47, expects pretax savings of as much as $100 million a year by cutting unprofitable or ``poorly located'' stores in its primary markets and selling stores where it's not among the top three chains. Winn-Dixie, which in January suspended its dividend, has cut prices to compete with larger rivals Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Publix Super Markets Inc.

``It's the Wal-Mart effect,'' said Mark Hugh Sam, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. ``You have Wal-Mart and Publix. The third guy is always the marginal player. They are No. 3.''

more...

[ozymandius]

10. How do you like the roller coaster ride?

Round and round she goes. Where she stops...

9:57 figures
Dow 10,290.22 +17.95 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,954.77 -4.01 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,115.54 +1.65 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.524% -0.016

I will be away for the rest of the day. Have a wonderful weekend!

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

13. Bye Ozy,

Have a great weekend!

(Be sure to check out my note to you at the end of Post 7)

[54anickel]

11. Shell Tries a Buyback to Pacify Its Investors

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/30/business/worldbusiness/30shell.html?ex=1083902400&en=9d31e5c3d5451e9b&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE

ONDON, April 29 - The Royal Dutch/Shell Group said on Thursday that it would buy back $2 billion of its shares this year, the latest sign that the company is trying to placate shareholders after months of criticism.

Shell has been under fire since it unexpectedly cut its proven reserve estimates by 20 percent in January. It is being investigated by regulators including the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Department of Justice and Britain's market regulator, the Financial Services Authority.

Thursday's announcement came as the company reported a 16 percent drop in net income for the first quarter, to $4.43 billion. If a gain for asset sales is subtracted from last year's first-quarter earnings, and adjustments are made for the cost of supplies, Shell's net income rose 9 percent this quarter.

The company said that it would increase capital expenditures this year by $700 million to search for new oil and gas deposits.

more...

[UpInArms]

12. Oil prices hit 3-1/2 year high

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/30/markets/oil.reut/

LONDON (Reuters) - International oil prices hit a 3-1/2 year high Friday, led by an all-time high for U.S. gasoline prices amid concerns of a shortage in the peak summer driving months.

London Brent crude for July delivery stood at $34.85, up 47 cents, after hitting a session high at $35, its highest since October 2000.

U.S. light crude gained 47 cents to $37.78 a barrel. U.S. gasoline hit a fresh all-time peak of $1.2510 a gallon Friday.

"Gasoline is relentless in the face of weakening fundamentals across the rest of the crude complex," Josh Sadler, energy analyst with Societe Generale, said in a report.

"Current (U.S. gasoline) stock levels need to increase at least 5 percent by the end of May to alleviate the continued upward price pressure," he said.

Further ahead, Sadler said tightening credit in China could slow down its sizzling economy and erode its soaring demand for oil.

China this week ordered some smaller banks to stop lending for several days until May 1, when the week-long Labor Day holiday begins, in its latest bid to clamp down on easy credit.

...more...

hmmmmmm......

[UpInArms]

14. Fidelity CEO said to sell $184 mln in stock

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B25B81400%2D8900%2D411A%2D80FA%2D083AB22FF0A6%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- The chief executive of Fidelity Investments sold almost $184 million of his family's Fidelity stock back to the parent company for cash last year, the Boston Globe reported Friday.

The Globe's report about CEO Edward C. Johnson III cited a regulatory filing.

The FMR Corp. stock, held in a family investment vehicle, represents about 0.5 percent of the company's total worth, the Globe said. Analysts estimate the mutual-fund giant's value at $40 billion, the newspaper said.

Johnson's 12 percent personal stake in the investment company's voting stock remains unchanged, the Globe said.

"The sale was from a partnership that was established for the extended Johnson family," Fidelity spokeswoman Anne Crowley told the newspaper. The partnership was established as "part of the family's overall financial planning," she said.

...more...

[54anickel]

15. Consumers angry over bank card tricks (China)

Welcome to free-markets and capitalism.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-04/30/content_1449780.htm

snip>
The announcement by the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) that it would begin to charge a 10-yuan annual fee for every debit card from July 1 and the decision to follow suit by the China Construction Bank (CCB) and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) have ignited a large scale and heated debate around the country.

The fee will not only apply to new clients but also to old debit card holders who were told the cards were free when they applied.

Up to now, among the four State-owned banks, only the Bank of China has kept the promise of fee-free cards it made to its customers.

Arrogant behaviour

As official from the China Consumers' Association said, the move to charge early card holders was a violation of the contract the banks had with those customers. The banks had declared that the cards were free when their customers applied for them but then announced the change unilaterally, without consulting or gaining the card holders' agreement.

more...

[htuttle]

18. If Chinese consumers don't get used to being tricked and ripped off....

...they'll never get the hang of this 'Capitalism' thing.

[54anickel]

16. China May Raise Interest Rates as Early as Next Week

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aG16YCC59L_s&refer=asia

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- China's central bank may raise borrowing costs for the first time in nine years as early as next week's Labor Day holiday to help curb runaway investment that is stoking inflation, according to economists including Zhu Jianfang.

``The bank may raise lending rates during the week-long holiday by 50 basis points to signal its determination to cool the economy,'' said Zhu, an economist at China Securities Research in Beijing. Alternatively, the bank may wait until June ``when inflation figures show the need for tougher measures,'' he said.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts rates will rise by as much as a percentage point within the next 12 months and Credit Suisse First Boston is forecasting increases totaling two percentage points by the end of 2005. Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered Bank estimate rates will be raised by half a point this year.

Expectations rates will rise are hardening as the government steps up efforts to cool growth in the world's sixth-largest economy. China this week ordered banks ``not to accelerate'' lending ahead of the May 1 start of the Labor Day holiday, halted the building of a $1.3 billion steel mill and increased the amount of money companies must put up for steel, cement, aluminum and real-estate projects.

more...


China Regulator Orders Halt to Some Loans Amid Rate Speculation

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=at5BfXR7W6MU&refer=asia

snip>
Banks must stop lending to industries that aren't approved by the government and curb lending to the ``overheated'' auto, aluminum, cement, real estate and steel industries, the Beijing- based China Banking Regulatory Commission said. The People's Bank of China decided at an emergency meeting yesterday to raise the rate on one-year loans after a one-week holiday that starts next week, the South China Morning Post said.

snip>
``Investors better be prepared for some serious action,'' said Liu Juming, a fund manager at Fuh-Wa Asset Management Co., which manages the equivalent of $2 billion of assets in Taiwan. ``China has been such a powerhouse for Asia's economic growth, a reversal of the trend will hurt.''

CNOOC, China's biggest offshore oil company, fell 4.2 percent to HK$2.825 in Hong Kong. Nippon Steel Corp., Japan's biggest steelmaker, which didn't trade yesterday, dropped 6.1 percent to 231 yen. Posco, Korea's No. 1 steelmaker, slid 2.4 percent to 143,500 won.

Currencies Fall

The yen dropped to 110.46 per dollar, from 109.88 late yesterday in New York, according to EBS, an electronic foreign- exchange dealing system. The Korean won fell to 1,173.35 against the dollar, from yesterday's close of 1,170.85, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. The Taiwan dollar fell to NT$33.367 against its U.S. counterpart, from yesterday's NT$33.295, according to Taipei Forex Inc.

snip>
The government stopped the construction of a 10.5 billion yuan ($1.3 billion) steel plant in the eastern province of Jiangsu, partly because of an unauthorized 2.56 billion yuan loan from the Bank of China. The head of the Bank of China's Changzhou branch was dismissed because of the loan, said Liao Weidong, a bank spokesman.

No new steel, aluminum and cement projects will be approved this year, the State Council said, according to the official Xinhua news agency. The State Council said it will dispatch inspection teams to ensure its rules are enforced.

[UpInArms]

19. market numbers at 10:36 EST

Dow 10,267.23 -5.04 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,942.43 -16.35 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,111.82 -2.07 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.548% +0.008

10:30AM: Equities continue to slip as conviction on the part of buyers remains tepid... Advancers do claim a lead over decliners at the NYSE, but decliners are outpacing advancers at the NYSE... Technology remains the target of sellers, along with relatively 'new' sectors like insurance... The latter has declined in part to profit-taking off Cigna's (CI 63.10 -1.72) better than expected Q1 (Mar) report... Strikingly, the sharp rise in the April Chicago PMI index has not done much to inspire buying efforts...

The regional manufacturing report benefited from rebounds in the influential new orders and production areas; however, such an improved manufacturing outlook has arguably been priced into the market... NYSE Adv/Dec 1598/1262, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1145/1549

[54anickel]

20. ANALYSIS-Asia crosses fingers for soft China landing

Hmmm, all this tightening on the heels of Cheney's visit to China. Makes one a bit suspicious. China did need to pull in the reins of some of the redundant growth in the areas such as cement and industrial metals. But it all begs the question of what, if anything, are the benefits to the US in terms of the US$ and trade deficit? I posted something, yesterday I think, that stated the Chinese public are worried about a currency crisis should the Yuan be allowed to float. Why?
Help me out on this one Marketeers, I was up late last night and suffering massive brain farts this AM. All the coffee in the world is not going to help me clear my head today. :hangover:


http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/funds/newswire/2004/04/30/rtr1354623.html

snip>

LETTING OUT THE AIR

Asia has a vital stake in China's attempts to let the air out of the bubble in fixed-asset investment, which was 43 percent higher in the first quarter than a year earlier.

Last year, exports to China from elsewhere in Asia grew about 40 percent on average. Japan logged a 44 percent increase, accounting for more than a third of its overall export growth.

South Korea's exports to China jumped 48 percent and Taiwan's more than doubled. The Philippines' overall exports would have fallen if it had not been for a 48 percent rise in sales to China, according to Sin Beng Ong of JP Morgan Chase in Singapore.

"Of course, the same linkages could transmit any slowdown in China to the rest of Asia in 2004 and 2005. Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Philippines -- where the Chinese market accounted for over 35 percent of export growth last year -- would likely be most affected," Ong said in a note to clients.

snip>
But not everyone is sanguine. Andy Xie of Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong says directed credit quotas might be needed to bring about a soft landing. Even then, the odds of success are not high because in China politically connected businessmen have an incentive to borrow from state banks to over-invest, Xie said.

"The overshooting of China's investment cycle has become so big that it threatens the country's stability," Xie said in a report. "If China's leadership does not take resolute action, I believe the national economy would spin out of control."

[54anickel]

21. Emerging Markets Warm to Euro

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/04/29/046.html

LONDON -- The euro is gaining ground as a credible rival to the dollar and moves by emerging market central banks to diversify their currency reserves are likely to give the single currency long-term support.

Central banks around the world have slowly been buying euros since its birth in 1999 to diversify dollar-dominated currency reserves, minimize risks and enhance returns.

Now Russia, which keeps a tight grip on the ruble, is planning to replace dollar-based monitoring of its currency with a dollar/euro basket, which could entail buying euros to curb ruble strength.

China's FX chief said last week that the country is diversifying its vast reserves out of dollars to include more European and Asian bonds. Libya also said it planned to change the peg for its dinar to give the euro a bigger weighting.

snip>

Data from the International Monetary Fund showed the euro's share in official FX reserves rose to 18.7 percent in 2002 from 12.7 in 1999. Demand for the dollar stood at 64.5 percent in 2002 compared with 67.9 percent. 2003 data is due later this year.

more...

[54anickel]

22. Fall and fall of the dollar: US must buck up

Monday, Mar 29, 2004

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2004/03/29/stories/2004032900210900.htm

"MONEY is a commodity such as potatoes — if only ten people want them, they are worth only so much. If thousands want them, well..." said a Zurich banker shrugging his shoulder, at the height of international monetary crisis in January 1973.

This was a time when the weak US dollar was heading towards its inevitable second devaluation against gold. The Swiss franc was a star performer then, outsmarting its nearest competitors, the sturdy German mark and the Japanese yen. More then three decades after that momentous dollar crisis which ripped apart the Post-War Bretton Woods System, the dollar has plunged more steeply against the euro and gold.

In terms of the scale and severity, the depth and duration of the currency crisis, the 2003-04 dollar plunge is also more savage than its previous collapse under the Jimmy Carter regime (1978-79).

But for the massive intervention of Asian central banks reluctant to permit the inevitable revaluation of their currencies, the fall of the "Lord of the Bretton Woods currency ring," and ``the return of the king" under floating — the US dollar — would have been worse. Indeed, the worst is yet to come. But neither Europe nor Japan wants its currencies to rise against the dollar any further.

In a recession-ridden global economy, particularly in the context of the inflation-free developed economies, the fall of the dollar by a huge percentage clearly signals the loss of faith in the very first currency itself. The recent issue of The Economist of London also draws attention to this and laments over it.

more...

[54anickel]

23. 11:50 update

Dow 10,287.74 +15.47 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,943.40 -15.38 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,113.97 +0.08 (+0.01%)
10-yr Bond 4.509% -0.031
30-yr Bond 5.288% -0.024

NYSE Volume 625,784,000
Nasdaq Volume 897,096,000

11:30AM: Buyers continue to exert more influence as stocks improve their standing... More defensive-style investments - such as gold, consumer staple, and health care - continue to outperform as they have all year... Briefing.com adopted a more cautious investing approach at the beginning of the year owing to the recognition that the rising interest rate environment would curb the appeal of certain sectors... So far, a number of growth style areas - like consumer discretionary - have trailed the broader market as investors have feared that conditions have peaked...
While earnings reports certainly do not support this notion, it has been enough to keep buyers wary...NYSE Adv/Dec 1507/1537, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1166/1739

11:00AM: Trade remains choppy in the morning session as the market returns to its earlier levels... The Nasdaq continues to lag the blue chip averages and post moderate losses, but it has staged a respectable recovery effort in the past half hour... The blue chip issues, though, have been behind the move higher as the Dow has climbed to new session highs... Banking, drug, energy, and gold have all demonstrated relative strength, planting the broader market in positive territory...

The S&P 500, however, has yet to break out of its recent trading range, and has held around its 20 week exponential average at 1116...NYSE Adv/Dec 1180/1783, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 840/2002

[54anickel]

24. 1:14 update

Dow 10,293.63 +21.36 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,937.37 -21.41 (-1.09%)
S&P 500 1,113.79 -0.10 (-0.01%)
10-yr Bond 4.505% -0.035
30-yr Bond 5.279% -0.033

NYSE Volume 859,533,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,227,418,000

1:00PM: The Nasdaq extends its reach into negative territory and takes the blue chip averages lower with it... The S&P 500 has fallen to its worst levels of the day as its earlier leaders - like drug, banking, and energy - back off their gains... The Dow itself is sporting only two stocks - Procter & Gamble (MO 106.97 +1.00) and Altria Group (MO 55.87 +0.97) - out of 30 that are showing gains... The lack of upside leaders threatens to send the average below the flat line for the first time today...NYSE Adv/Dec 1555/1606, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1069/1966
12:25PM: Indices remain stuck in a rut as a sluggish technology sector weighs heavily on the action... Internet, networking, computer hardware, and communication equipment are among the weakest groups as investors have sold heavily into earnings reports... Foundry Networks (FDRY 11.19 -2.96) has dragged the latter area down with a Q1 (Mar) earnings report that missed the Reuters Research consensus EPS estimate by $0.03... The company also issued weaker than expected guidance for Q2 (June), and that has affected peers such as Cisco (CSCO 21.04 -0.87) and Juniper Networks (JNPR 22.29 -0.66)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1539/1604, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1105/1892

[hang a left]

27. kick

[The_Casual_Observer]

28. The entire economy is dependant on low / near zero interest

rates, while at the same time inflating the prices of everything and calling it "growth". These opposing policies would seem to spell disaster in the near future.

[54anickel]

29. Inflation is growth, debt is wealth. The New Economy.

on edit:
Oh yeah, and the world is Shrubco and his cronies oyster. Implant a little irritant, let it ooze and fester for a while then kill that sucker by cracking it wide open to claim your fortune.

[54anickel]

30. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,225.57 -46.70 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,920.15 -38.63 (-1.97%)
S&P 500 1,107.30 -6.59 (-0.59%)
10-yr Bond 4.501% -0.039
30-yr Bond 5.282% -0.030

NYSE Volume 1,641,663,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,175,583,000

Close: Stocks seemed to start the day with every intention to erase the prior two days' hefty losses, but selling once again set in in afternoon trading and sent the indices progressively lower... The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all finished noticeably lower for the week and month of April as a result... Many of the same reasons that held the market back during the month were at play in today's session - namely, the fear that many industries have hit their cyclical 'peak' (with year/year comparisons growing tougher) and the worry that rising interest rates will curb the appeal of stocks...
These concerns overshadowed a batch of better than expected earnings reports from the likes of Avon Products (AVP 84.08 +4.03) and Procter & Gamble (PG 106.53 +0.56)... The impressive results sent the consumer product names to the head of the market, along with other defensive oriented groups like health care distributor and tobacco - the latter more due to the relative weakness of every other sector... Technology and biotech were the largest laggards among the myriad of groups (transportation, financial, etc) that traded lower and were responsible for the Nasdaq's 2.0% drop...

Economic data were similarly swept under the rug despite generally encouraging results... March Personal Income & Spending checked in at 0.4% each, the April Michigan Consumer Sentiment number was revised higher to 94.2, and the April Chicago PMI Index moved to its highest levels since January...SOX -1.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1311/1954, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 958/2216

3:30PM : Selling pressure builds as the market enters its last half hour of regular session trading... The Nasdaq is now well-below its 200-day simple moving average at 1933, forming a bit of a bearish formation from a technical standpoint... The S&P 500 itself has started to approach the psychologically-significant 1100 level, also boding poorly for the market's finish today... This week, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 will all finish with large losses, in stark contrast to their solid gains last week...

It would not be surprising to see buyers hold back again next week with the FOMC's meeting on Tuesday and the April Employment report on Friday...NYSE Adv/Dec 1471/1771, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 906/2220