(Cdn) Liberals could win majority, poll says - Globe and Mail

[Screaming Lord Byron]

http://www.globeandmail.ca/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040430.poll30/BNStory/Front/

Voter support for the federal Liberals has started to climb again its recent slide while the Conservatives appear stalled in what may be the final weeks or days before an election call, according to a new Ipsos-Reid poll.

The survey, done for The Globe and Mail and CTV, found 40 per cent support for the Liberals led by Prime Minister Paul Martin, up from 35 per cent three weeks ago. Support for the Conservatives was at 23 per cent, down from 28 per cent.

The swings are larger than the poll's margin of error and suggest the Liberals are in a better position to call an election soon – most likely for mid- or late June — and could win a tenuous majority.

-Excuse me while I compose myself with regard to the CPC slump.

[Minstrel Boy]

1. Five point drop for the neoConservatives,

and the NDP hold at Ipsos's 18%, just five behind 'em.

Election call next week!

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. Ipsos don't have the detailed tables up yet. I'm dying to see them.

I was expecting the Liberals to rebound eventually, the fact that it is at the expense of the CPC is fantastich! On to official opposition status. Ooops, I probably just jinxed us.
They haven't changed their seat projection, which totally underestimates us. No surprise from PC boy Darrell Bricker of course, it's his baby.

[MrPrax]

3. The bad part...

New Dem numbers haven't moved...

Really too bad...

[Screaming Lord Byron]

4. Still, the CPC have gone down depsite every advantage.

Now they have to worry about us being 5 pts behind.
The fact that our vote remains solid despite a recent low media profile, and despite Svend, is promising to me.

[MrPrax]

7. Every Advantage?

Well despite every advantage that a party with over a forty year tradition has and inspite of a less than honest merger and inspite of a scandal-plagued ruling government--I would have expected more actually.

The core has dwindled evidently...
Maybe this time when Jack is elected, the NDP will do a thorough self-examination that fundamentally addresses these problems...

[Screaming Lord Byron]

9. Fair enough. I however am very optimistic about these results.

[Frederic Bastiat]

5. No surprises yet

Not that I was expecting any.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

6. More info up at Ipsos site - no tables yet.

59% don't think Liberals deserve re-election.
NDP plus Green support equals Conservative vote.

Atlantic
Liberal - 47%
CPC - 30%
NDP - 18%

Quebec
Bloc - 46%
Liberal - 33%
CPC - 8%
NDP - 8%

Ontario
Liberal - 49%
CPC - 25%
NDP - 20%

SK/MB
Liberal - 35%
CPC - 26%
NDP - 25%

Alberta
CPC - 46%
Liberal - 31%
NDP - 15%

BC
Liberal - 30%
NDP - 26%
CPC - 25%

[Minstrel Boy]

8. Enough polls - I want the real magilla!

And I do so like the word "magilla."

Over many months, the NDP vote has been steady at 17-20%. At this stage, I'm happier with a solid core vote in that range than I would be if we suddenly ballooned up to the mid to high 20s. The election is the right time for that.

Layton won't need to convince the base; that looks locked up (and already back to its historic high). And I seriously doubt Harpermania will sweep the land, so the old Liberal tactic of fearmongering the left into strategic voting should fail.

Jack's going to be the most exciting campaigner and the ablest debater. Not to mention, style-wise, he has a very retro-cool Lenin thing going on. Martin reminds me more of Bewitched's Larry Tate. Not so cool.

Yeah, this is gonna be fun.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

10. When the NDP can get 15% in Alberta, we're right on track.

[Lisa]

11. I saw Jack last weekend ...

He comes across quite well in public. A small guy (actually all the south Island NDP candidates are fairly short!) so it was hard to see him over the press scrum -- you guys in the States have it easy with John Kerry, since he's considerably taller than average.

Anyway, he looks confident without seeming arrogant. Very approachable. My favourite incident was when he talked, very seriously, with a guy representing a local group lobbying for Victoria's sewage treatment plant. (We haven't got one yet, which is pretty disgraceful, for a city of more than 300,000.) The local environmentalist was dressed as "Mr. Hankey the Talking Poo" from "South Park", and I was really sorry that I didn't have my camera!

Also -- I had volunteered to summarize the NDP's environmental platform onto a one-page leaflet, since giving out 10 single-sided pages to promote sustainability would be a bit ironic. I wasn't there at the time, but several people told me that Jack saw the leaflet, exclaimed "This is neat: I've never seen it condensed so well", and requested a copy.

[Minstrel Boy]

12. Maybe it's best you didn't have a camera!

A picture of Jack talking seriously to a guy dressed as a piece of shit could have become the "Gilles Duceppe in a hairnet" of this campaign! :evilgrin:

And congrats on summarizing the environmental platform. Few people would read 10 pages. These things have gotta be one page, or it's worthless. :toast:

[Minstrel Boy]

13. Toronto May Day book signings by Jack Layton

MAY DAY Double-header with Jack Layton
Come celebrate the publication of Jack Layton's new book,
Speaking Out: Ideas That Work for Canadians by KeyPorter Books.
Net proceeds of all royalties will be donated to the Stephen Lewis Foundation.
....................................................................
BOOK SIGNING
Join us at Another Story Bookshop
May 1
164 Danforth Avenue
2-4 pm
Meet Jack Layton for a book signing, munchies, political chat and music
Bring your friends and family
Sheila Koffman, owner of Another Story, invites you all to come celebrate the book and support your NDP bookseller: "I'm pleased to celebrate this book because we all love Jack, our charismatic leader. What a motivator! Let's get his words out there!"
....................................................................
SOCIAL
You are invited to a celebration at the
Cecil Community Centre
May 1
58 Cecil Street
8pm * midnight
Dance to a live band
Cash bar, free admission
Jack Layton will be on hand to sign copies of Speaking Out.
Co-sponsored by Pages Books and Magazines.
RSVP to [e-mail] <mailto:[e-mail]>


From the charismatic new leader of the federal NDP comes this practical handbook for all Canadians. No matter where you stand on the political spectrum, Speaking Out: Ideas That Work for Canadians offers practical solutions to key challenges—from the erosion of health care and public education to the threat to our environment and the independence of our economy.

What kind of life does Canada offer its 32 million inhabitants? And perhaps, more importantly, what promise does it hold for future generations of Canadians? Jack Layton brings theory to life by drawing on his hands-on experience in politics and community work to tackle key economic, environmental, and health issues. A call to action, this short book will inspire Canadians across the country to become more involved in their communities, and to embrace new solutions to old problems. In Speaking Out, Jack Layton offers a new vision for Canada, a vision that introduces the best and most exciting ideas available today. By working together, Canadians can build a vibrant economy that protects the environment, and a just society that provides equality and services to all the people who call Canada home.
http://www.keyporter.com/book_detail.cfm?BookContentID=D8F083E3-BF4A-4FDF-81BA-1B62AFE4FF8A