STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 21 June

[ozymandius]

Monday June 21, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 217
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 192 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 246 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 459
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 942
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Jeff Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 18, 2004

Dow... 10,416.41 +38.89 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq... 1,986.73 +3.06 (+0.15%)
S&P 500... 1,135.02 +2.97 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.71% +0.02 (+0.38%)
Gold future... 395.70 +6.20 (+1.59%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Why Bearish?

In this WrapUp I want to take a brief look at some of the Big picture bearish evidence that continues to plague the market. For some of you that are more familiar with my work you may be aware of these issues. For new listeners this should be a good high level overview.

-cut-

The next bearish factor hanging over the market has to do with the normal relationships between bull and bear markets. From a long-term perspective we have seen 3 “Great Bull Markets” since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896. I am defining these “Great Bull Markets” in accordance with the phasing of Dow theory, which also confirms my cycles work because each of the periods have seen multiple 4-year cycle advances. Let me explain.

As I read about the Bull and Bear markets of the late 1800’s and very early 1900’s, it becomes apparent that the Bull markets Mr. Dow, Mr. Hamilton and Mr. Rhea wrote about were the upward movements of the 4-year cycle and the Bear markets were the downward movements of the 4-year cycle. As more people began to invest in the markets and as our nation became more sophisticated, the Bull and Bear periods became longer. Bull and Bear markets evolved into a series of multiple 4-year cycle periods. As an example, the Bull market from 1921 to 1929 was a period of two 4-year cycles. The low in November 1929 was a 4-year cycle low. The rally, “Secondary Reaction,” that followed was the upside of a 4-year cycle that topped in only 5 months. This rally, “Secondary Reaction,” served to separate Phase one from Phase two of the first “Great Bear Market.” Once this “Secondary Reaction” was over, the DJIA moved down below the previous Phase one low and into the 1932 4-year cycle low, which proved to be the Bear market bottom.

Oil

Back in May I said that it looked as if we were about to see some relief in gasoline prices at the pump. Since then unleaded gasoline has dropped approximately 25 cents in the futures market. Unfortunately, the oil companies have not reduced the price at the pump by the same amount. They never do. They are quick to raise the price when the futures market moves up but it takes them a while to lower the price when the futures market declines. I mentioned last week that I would try to take a brief technical look at oil in today’s WrapUp. The chart below is a weekly chart of crude oil. The blue w’s represent intermediate term cycle lows. The blue indicator at the top of the chart is my intermediate term directional movement indicator. The red indicator in the middle window is a 5 3 3 stochastic indicator. These indicators are used to help identify these intermediate term price tops and bottoms. In trying to keep this overview of oil as simple as possible let me say that the top made in early June was indeed a top of intermediate degree. We are now moving into a low of intermediate degree. As of this writing I have absolutely no evidence that this intermediate degree low has occurred. Thus, my current view is that until I see evidence to the contrary we must conclude that the intermediate term trend for oil is now down. Once this low occurs we should see a bounce-back rally much like the one which occurred after the initial break down in gold and silver. Then, from that bounce-back rally I believe that we will see oil continue to be under pressure as it should then move into a higher degree low in early 2005. This technical picture could change and if it does, I will let you know. However, until such change occurs it is my belief that the general direction for oil is now down.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. THE UNRAVELING - by Jim Puplava

The markets don't look right to me. They appear to be out of order. Uncertainty is everywhere. Geopolitical risks abound from Central Asia and the Middle East to the American ballot box. Financial risks have never been greater with asset bubbles consistently inflating, fed by an avalanche of debt. Speculation is rampant with banks and hedge funds borrowing short and investing and lending long as well as households borrowing short and investing long in real estate. Despite record amounts of consumer, business, and government debt, financial markets remain complacent to the threat of higher interest rates.

An economy and stock market that is this levered is far more vulnerable to small movements in interest rates—even if they are measured. On the economic front, America's twin deficits keep expanding as our nation goes deeper in debt. Yet, the dollar has been in a rally mode since the beginning of the year. Inflation is also on the rise and is visible everywhere you look, but gold and silver prices have been falling.

-cut-

Massaging The Numbers Won't Make It Better

However, as much as rates have risen, they have much further to go. Inflation indexes indicate that the true rate of inflation is probably approaching 8-10%. The CPI and PPI numbers are statistically massaged to remove the major impact of inflationary increases. Instead of measuring the cost of housing, the CPI Index uses a rent equivalent number which is much lower than the true inflationary costs of housing. Other statistical measures, such as quality adjustments, temper or remove price increases so that inflation rates seem reasonable. Even with these adjustments, there is no hiding the fact that inflation is on the rise. May import prices for the United States were up 1.6% in May. While a good majority of this increase was due to a spike in oil prices, other commodity prices rose as well. Wage costs are rising, health care benefits are moving up at high single-digit rates and food costs have nearly doubled.

-cut-

Stagflation Rears Its Ugly Head

We are now in a new environment somewhat similar to the 1970s when the money supply soared as central banks expanded money and credit to accommodate the impact of higher energy prices. The result was stagflation. Isn’t that where we are today? Rising energy prices, higher rates of inflation, anemic job growth, and stagnating wages all point to a stagflation environment.

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2004/0618.html

[KoKo]

5. interesting comment from Puplova about Kerry.....is he thinking Shrub

will keep the economy from imploding when he's the one who caused all our troubles by lowering taxes which took away our safety net which we needed when 9/11 occurred. I think there's a flaw in his argument blaming everything on Greenspan when Shrub created an enviroment which has caused much of what Publova is talking about. I'm not a fan of Greenspan but to say that Kerry will collapse the economy seems pretty harsh. :shrug:

With Asian central banks pulling back on their purchases, the Fed may have no choice but to start monetizing our debt. The government deficit will be over $500 billion this year and the trade deficit is tracking at an annual rate of $575 billion. Where will all of this money come from? If the government tries to get it from taxes, there will be a tax revolt in this country the likes we have not seen since the founding of this country. Taxes are going to go up no matter who is elected president. Kerry will raise tax rates the most, which will be the final death knell on the economy. Regardless of what tax rates our leaders impose, they won’t be high enough to cover the government’s voracious appetite for spending. (Each candidate is proposing massive new spending programs.) Taxes will not be able to cover the government’s bill. Government simply spends more than it takes in. So what they don’t take in taxes will be made up by printing more money. This will further accelerate inflation.

[54anickel]

12. I think he's saying that regardless of who wins, we all loose in the end,

as in we're all screwed. He seems to be saying raising tax rates will be the final death knell. Both Shrub and Kerry will raise them (while impossible to raise them enough). Just that Kerry will raise them the most.

His choices seems to be between a slow, agonizing death or a fairly quick one for the economy. That's just my take on what you snipped in your post. Then again, I woke up on the doom & gloom side of the bed again this morning. :evilgrin:

Where are we going and what am I doing in this handbasket?

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning Marketeers!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:
It is yet another seriously packed week. So my participation will be
generally limited to these scant early posts.

Have a wonderful day. I will check in when possible.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.16 Change +0.08 (+0.09%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1087810489-9e32d306-15182

Forex - Dollar comes off lows but current account gap still a worry

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar came off lows set in Asian trading but remained on the backfoot, still affected by concerns about the burgeoning US current account deficit. A record deficit in the first quarter, revealed Friday, saw the dollar slump across the board and with little on the data front today to detract markets, the US currency is expected to remain under pressure. Steve Pearson, currency strategist at HBOS, said the question of financing the current account gap has resurfaced as a "market driver." Against this backdrop, US Treasury Secretary John Snow's remarks that the deficit will not pose a problem, fell on deaf ears

His comments are "unlikely to convince market participants" and the issue "will limit" any dollar recovery, said Michael Klawitter, at West LB. Still, the prospect of a quarter point rate hike by the Fed on June 30 is keeping the dollar from falling too far

"Market participants will be reluctant to sell the dollar aggressively," said Klawitter

But support for the dollar from the end June rate hike expectations appear to have dulled, with markets largely resigned to nothing bigger than a quarter point increase. Elsewhere, impressive stock markets gains in Tokyo helped the yen rise

There was also added support for the Japanese currency ahead of an expected rise in the key Tankan survey due on July 1

The dollar could slip under 108 yen in these circumstances, one dealer said. Sterling drfited lower slightly and is vulnerable to any hint that the Bank of England may step off the pedal in hiking interest rates.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1087567528-9e32d306-24656

Treasury extends terrorism risk insurance through 2005

WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The Bush administration announced Friday it would extend a program designed to require insurance companies to provide coverage for acts of terrorism through 2005. "The terrorism risk insurance program has been an important confidence builder as this country recovered from the attacks of September 11 and the recession," Treasury Secretary John Snow said in a written statement. The program was enacted into law in 2002 and had been set to expire at the end of this year.

...very short newsblurb...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/107110/content.asp?menu=KBC

US: Current Account Shows Record Deficit

In Q1, the US current account widened to a new record deficit at USD -144.9 bln from USD –127.0 bln in Q4 2003.. This represented a 5.1% of deficit, a huge deficit to all standards, which underscores the vulnerability of the dollar, which depends on the willingness of foreign investors to buy dollars. In the recent past, these foreigners had enough appetite in US assets to prevent a sharp dollar fall. However, we shouldn’t forget that these foreign investors include official foreign investors, especially Asian governments/central banks and was linked to interventions in the forex markets. These forex interventions stopped however in Q2, with regard to BOJ interventions. The outcome also surpassed expectations for a 140.0 bln. deficit. The sharp widened was driven by a worsening trade deficit, which increased to 150 bln. USD from 139.4 bln. USD in Q4 2003. Investment income remained strong (inflows) at +12.6 bln. USD, but off the record 16.1 bln. USD in Q4 2003. The transfers balance, on the other hand, showed a 20.6 bln. USD deficit, up from 17.6 bln. USD in Q4 2003.

...more...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2001960406_dollar20.html

Analyst expects dollar to decline

The dollar may decline once the Federal Reserve starts raising its key interest rate, based on an analysis of past episodes of interest-rate changes by the U.S. central bank, Lehman Brothers Holdings said.

Lehman said the dollar tends to gain before the Fed begins a series of interest-rate increases, and to drop before the central bank starts a series of rate reductions. Both those patterns tend to reverse in the months after the Fed actually moves.

Fed policy makers next meet on June 29-30.

...very short newsblurb...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

6. Futures lost a bit of their shine this morning, hey? But still up vs down

9:12AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Little change in the futures trade, which means the likelihood of a higher open remains intact... Volume totals should be relatively light again this session, making it difficult for the market to develop a definitive trend.
8:57AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Futures indications continue to suggest an up open for the indices... Tech appears poised to lead the market in the early action - buoyed by a number of bullish analyst calls for the upcoming quarters of EBAY, DELL, and EBAY... The sector also underperformed the broader market last week, piquing some interest in its members.

8:25AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Cash market remains set for a modestly higher open... News flow has been extremely light this morning - with only a few earnings reports and no economic data - and thus this morning's move is largely an extension of the range-bound trading that has predominated past sessions... Treasuries are similarly lackluster, the 10-year note up 2 ticks, bringing its yield to 4.70%.

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Futures market pointing to a slightly higher start for the cash market... The rally in Asia (Tokyo's Nikkei +1.9%) was an impressive rebound from Friday's losses and has help set the tone for today's positive open... The disappointing end to Friday's US session has also prompted some early morning buying interest.

7:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0.

[UpInArms]

7. and the blather from ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1455.50 would open the door for a possible test of the June 3rd low crossing at 1446.50 later this month. Closes above 1500 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 8.50 points at 1476.50 as of 6:31 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it consolidates above initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1134.46. Closes below last Monday's low at 1121.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways prices are possible near- term. Closes above the June 8th high at 1142.20 would open the door for a test of April's high crossing at 1147.10 later this month. The September S&P 500 Index was up 3.90 pts. at 1137.90 as of 6:33 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

8. Monetary Instability and Lessons Not Learned

The actual artice starts about 2/3 down the page. There are a few interesting tidbits on the way down the page as well.

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Vacation gave me an opportunity to finally dive into Allan Meltzer’s A History of the Federal Reserve. Coupled with Paul McCulley’s latest, I am thinking that we are no worse off for attempting to refine our analysis of some key parallels between the contemporary environment and that from the “Roaring Twenties.”

Mr. McCulley, Fed governor Bernanke and others are increasingly vocal in their call for the Fed to adopt of some variation of a “price rule” to guide monetary policy. Their analytical focus remains on a narrow measure of consumer prices, with a view that our policymakers, having won the long war against inflation, can now direct their policy attention towards sustaining “Price Stability.”

But it is reasonable to trumpet the achievement of “price stability” (from the aggregate performance of “core” consumer prices) when the average price of a home in California has inflated $136,470 (43%!) to almost $454,000 over the past 24 months – when NASDAQ (and global equity markets generally) has fluctuated wildly over the past 5 years; when economic growth and corporate profits have vacillated unusually; corporate debt markets have swung from near dislocation to incredible liquefication; and global currency markets have experienced extraordinary seesaws and unstable market conditions (with many episodes of dislocation and crisis over the past decade)?

“Price Stability” is a Red Herring. Instead, the issue today should be Monetary Stability, an admittedly, but necessarily, imprecise measure of the general financial AND economic environment – and the appropriateness of monetary policy. The focus must begin with Credit systems (domestic and global) and lending, and data should be analyzed both in aggregate and by sector. And while a narrow measure of consumer prices may indicate “Price Stability” to some, a nearly doubling of Total Mortgage Credit over about 7 years, a ballooning financial sector, a ballooning global leveraged speculating community, a U.S. primary dealer repo position nearing $3 Trillion, an annual U.S. Current Account Deficit approaching $600 billion, ballooning global central banks, and a net liability position to foreigners surpassing $5 Trillion are rather irrefutable indicators of Acute Monetary Instability.

much more...

[54anickel]

10. Corporate loan demand plunges

Sort of ties in with the Credit Bulletin article.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373128722&p=1012571727204

A slump in corporate borrowing has depressed pricing of loans to an eight-year low and raised concerns that banks may be mispricing risk to secure and retain business.


The global syndicated loan market remains by far the largest source of corporate borrowing, and companies have been able to secure more generous terms because of the increased appetite from banks flush with cash.

"There is a tremendous amount of liquidity in the bank market," said Bill Fish, head of loan syndication at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "This has led to reduced prices and longer maturities."

Demand has remained subdued by the absence of merger and acquisition activity and an economic upturn that has strengthened corporate balance sheets and allowed companies to repay existing debts.

more...

[UpInArms]

9. Markets Open at 9:39 EST

Dow 10,391.37 -25.04 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,987.28 +0.55 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,133.74 -1.28 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.695% -0.015

[UpInArms]

a side of blather

9:40AM: A relatively flat start for the equity market as a lack of influential news leaves investors hesitant... No economic data have been released and only a few companies have reported (most notably, Walgreen - see Briefing.com's Earnings Briefing for a rundown on results), and thus players have been given little to work with... Of note, the Asian indices had a strong day today - Tokyo's Nikkei average climbing 1.9% - on a slew of economic reports that echo the growth in the US...

That has helped keep the broader market from falling far, although it remains to be seen how the rest of the day should play out... Volume should continue to be light, leaving the indices open to wide swings...

[54anickel]

13. Nooooo! Wrong way on the S&P! Quick, someone dump some $$$

down that rat hole!

[UpInArms]

15. you mean like this?

10:06 EST

Dow 10,438.43 +22.02 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,994.68 +7.95 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,138.05 +3.03 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.692% -0.018

[54anickel]

16. Much better. Good thing the rats can still float! One of these times

that pouring down of liquidity is gonna drown the poor little suckers. Someone's gonna dump too much down that rat hole at once and there won't be nuttin floatin to the top. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

11. A Fight Against Fear as Well as Inflation

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/20/business/yourmoney/20view.html

snip>

Alan Greenspan, who was confirmed by the Senate last week for a fifth term as Fed chairman, has gone out of his way to project a dual message.

On the one hand, Mr. Greenspan and other top officials continue to say that inflationary pressures are "not likely to be a serious concern." But they have also gone out of their way to caution that they may be wrong. And if they are, they have promised, the Fed will relinquish its plan to raise rates at a "measured" pace and move more aggressively to cool down the economy.

So which is it? Is the central bank still confident that inflation poses no threat? Or is it acknowledging that there may be a problem after all?

Part of the answer has to do with an important distinction between inflation in its own right and inflation expectations.

Assuming that Mr. Greenspan and other senior officials believe what they say, the Fed still seems to view recent jumps in the prices of gasoline, food and clothing as transitory jolts, rather than part of a longer-term trend. They contend that labor costs, which account for about two-thirds of production costs, are still rising slowly because the number of unemployed workers remains fairly high. And even if the recent surge in new jobs leads to higher wages, which is likely, Fed officials contend that companies can absorb those costs because their profit margins have been unusually high.

more...

[54anickel]

14. U.S. Investors Turn to Cash as Stocks, Bonds and Trading Drop

More of the -
"Nowhere to run to, baby. Nowhere to hide.
I've got nowhere to run to baby. Market's in a slide."

on edit: Check out the last line in the article. Pretty much says it all.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=auqfyRJvF_K8&refer=us

June 21 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Miller, whose U.S. stock mutual fund has outpaced the Standard & Poor's 500 Index for a record 13 years, said he's struggling to find much to buy these days.

``Most stocks are trading at about where they should be,'' said Miller, 54, who has run the $14 billion Legg Mason Value Trust since 1982.

Twice as many money managers are closing their mutual funds to new investors as they did last year. Hedge funds, including Leon Cooperman's $2.8 billion Omega Advisors, have told clients they're short of investment ideas. Investors poured $30.7 billion into money market funds in the first week of June, the fastest pace in almost a year, according to Money Fund Report in Westborough, Massachusetts.

Stocks are stagnant, with U.S. indexes almost unchanged this year and price volatility for the Standard & Poor's 500 the lowest in 50 years; U.S. bonds are suffering the worst quarter in 24 years as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise base lending rates; and the war in Iraq shows no signs of abating and has sent oil prices up 28 percent in the past year.

``There's no obvious trade out there,'' said Barry Colvin, president of Tremont Capital Management Inc. in Rye, New York, which invests about $8 billion in hedge funds.

Paralyzed

more...

[KoKo]

24. Remember the article last week about the "Hedge Funds" investing

in bonds, equities and real estate? I'm convinced those "Hedges" are whats propping up our stock market and my impression from this article is that the market needs to go down before the average mutual fund can buy in and expect to make profits.

How long can they keep this control of the markets? :shrug:

[54anickel]

17. GE to expand retail banking

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373128204&p=1012571727088

General Electric plans to bring together all of its consumer finance businesses under a single global brand in preparation for an aggressive expansion into retail banking.

GE Money, as the business will be known, aims to capitalise on the US conglomerate's strength in store cards and sales financing by offering personal loans, mortgages and dual-use credit cards direct to consumers.

snip>

With its larger commercial finance division, GE is increasingly a competitor to conventional banks and ranks as the fifth-largest US bank by assets. Yet this is the first time the scale of its ambitions in retail markets has been articulated and reflects a recent decision by Jeffrey Immelt, GE group chairman and chief executive, to make more use of the parent company's brand.

Mr Nissen said GE had identified a niche providing loans to consumers with poorer credit scores, where it hoped to be faster and more flexible than banks but cheaper and more responsible than less well-known rivals.

more...

[UpInArms]

18. Dollar hits 8-week low against yen

http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/21/markets/bondcenter/bonds/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The dollar fell to an eight-week low against the yen Monday on the back of strong gains in Japanese stocks and accompanying expectations for a firming interest rate picture in Japan.

The dollar bought ¥108.36, down from ¥108.80 late Friday, and the euro bought $1.2107, down from $1.2137 late last week.

"We had a good performance overnight from the Nikkei, which still has quite a bearing on the strength of the yen," Chris Gothard, currency analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman, told Reuters.


"People are confident that recovery is here to stay in Japan and perhaps starting to look a little further forward -- perhaps too far, in my opinion -- to a situation where Japanese interest rates may start rising."

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates a quarter point at its policy meeting on June 29-30, but the pace of rate rises after that remains uncertain.

Higher U.S. interest rates would be likely to lure more foreign capital, and ease concerns about the soaring U.S. current account deficit, which widened to a record $144.9 billion in the first quarter.

...more...

[54anickel]

21. Higher rates would be LIKELY to lure more foreign capital? Sheesh, could

the be a little more explicit. Like maybe what if it don't? What then? Wouldn't that maybe raise concerns about the "soaring US current account deficit? How we gonna finance our debt then?

Well Allie, this is another fine mess you've gotten us into.

[54anickel]

29. The Dollar and Rising Rates (related article to my little rant)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/hamilton061804.html

snip>

Per classic economic theory, the rising rates indeed ought to be bullish for the dollar. The higher the returns that a given currency offers, the higher its international demand grows. While this economic principle commands much airplay these days, the more I ponder it the more I conclude that key foundational elements are missing this time around in the peculiar case of the US dollar.

In order for higher rates to boost demand for a currency, several core conditions must be in place. First, the rising rates on the currency must be attractive relative to those available in other major currencies. Second, the rising rates must move up relatively faster than those of alternative major currencies in order to maintain this competitive advantage. Finally, the actual real rates of return in the currency must be positive.

Unfortunately the US dollar fails all three of these core condition requirements underlying the classic economic theory on international currency demand, leading me to believe that it is not wise to expect rising rates to significantly boost the dollar’s flagging fortunes any time soon.

snip>

So, while Wall Street dances around and somehow believes that the US dollar is about to surge into a new multi-year secular bull on rate hikes, the charts just aren’t buying this argument. Short-term support just failed and long-term resistance is holding. Technically at least, the bearish arguments on the near-term fortunes of the dollar are far more convincing than the bullish ones.

Finally, another major reason that I suspect that rising rates will actually hurt the dollar, at least initially, is because foreigners are already heavily invested in US Treasuries and other American debt. Rising rates are great news for new investors, but for investors with existing debt portfolios they are like the Black Death. There is nothing that can obliterate the wealth of bond investors faster than rising interest rates.

more...

[UpInArms]

19. Wal-Mart June Sales May Miss Forecast

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5471196

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said June sales at stores open at least a year were tracking "around" the low end of its forecast, a term it uses to indicate that sales could miss its expectations.

The world's biggest retailer made no change to its forecast for a 4 percent to 6 percent increase in June same-store sales, but Wal-Mart uses the word "around" to show that sales growth could be slightly below its forecast range.

On a recorded message updating sales through June 18, Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart said sales slowed over the June 12-13 weekend, but picked up later in the week as people bought Father's Day gifts. Last year, Father's Day was on June 15, but this year the holiday fell on June 20, pushing back some shopping demand.

The company also said spending increased after people received mid-month paychecks, suggesting that household budgets remain tight despite a recovering economy.

...more...

[54anickel]

22. "Despite a recovering economy"? Hmmm, tight household budgets

in an economy in which 70+% is dependent on consumerism does NOT sound like a recovering economy to me!!!

[54anickel]

20. Ports rush to adopt terror security standards

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5069440/

For the past several years, governments, maritime agencies and regulators, and shipping companies around the world have been working on a complex series of measures to thwart maritime terrorism. The undertaking is hugely ambitious: monitoring the activities of millions of mariners, dockworkers and support personnel in some 3,000 ports worldwide that handle the roughly 40,000 ships involved in the transport of billions of dollars worth of cargo every day.

Now, after countless hours of hearings and meetings, a forest of paperwork and hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure upgrades and salaries for new security personnel, the procedures are set to take effect July 1.

But just weeks before that deadline, fewer than 20 percent of the world’s ships and 10 percent of global ports had certified that they have made the changes called for by the new rules, according to the International Maritime Organization, which is overseeing the regulations.

snip>

Money is a big part of the problem. Despite the heightened awareness and the sprawling task of trying to secure 361 U.S ports and thousands of ships that visit them, attention and resources devoted to thwarting maritime terrorism has been a fraction of that devoted to aviation. So far, the federal government has allocated less than $500 million to counter maritime terrorism. By comparison, $11.7 billion has been spent since Sept. 11 to tighten security at the nation’s 429 airports served by commercial airlines. That amounts to less than a nickel spent on maritime security for every dollar spent on aviation.

snip>

The cost of comfort
The goal is to maintain security without choking off trade, but -– despite the July 1 deadline –- even Coast Guard officials concede it will take years to fully implement these solutions.

more...

[54anickel]

23. IT'S THE BUBBLES, STUPID

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/richebacher061904.html

snip>

There can be no question that, in time, badly performing financial markets will take their toll on general sentiment. The change in sentiment always comes after the markets have already declined dramatically - falls that most people are not prepared for. A recently published OECD report spells pure optimism about the world economic prospects and thus provides a warning that markets may be about to fall.

In its March Quarterly Review, under the title 'Appetite for Risk Lifts Markets,' the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, reports, "Financial markets around the world rallied into the new year, adding to the impressive gains recorded in 2003. Improvements in global growth prospects and corporate finances, coupled with a robust appetite for risk, underpinned increases in equity and credit prices. Not even further revelations of corporate malfeasance seemed to unsettle investors." We hasten to add that the Bank has been highly critical of this development.

As we have already said, the sudden rise in long-term U.S. rates, which started in mid-March, was not caused by bad news, but by unexpectedly good news. For us, it is an unbelievable irony that the strong employment gains were so coveted by the Fed yet, at the same time, ultimately proved to be the needle that pricked the bond bubble.

To quote Ramsay King on this point: "It will be an irony of biblical proportion if dubious employment gains spook the markets, which then impairs the economy, which in turn costs Bush the election. That irony would be compounded if there was any political maneuvering or pressure to produce great but unwarranted employment numbers."

For us, and for Mr. King, it is a great irony that the prevailing perception of a strongly rebounding U.S. economy, which caused interest rates to rise so suddenly, is so badly flawed in the first place. Consumer spending has effectively slumped during the first quarter. What's more, the recent impairment of the mortgage refinancing bubble is a compelling reason to assume that the consumer-spending slump will continue to get worse.

more...

[54anickel]

25. Stink Baum

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/bugos061804.html

What a joke. What happened to the press of the seventies that uncovered Watergate? Today's press couldn't find a scandal if it tried. You'd think it was because Diogenes has finally found a bunch of honest politicians. At least that's the implication in Baum's attitude, implicit in her rhetorical blasting of Robert McHugh's conclusion on May 30th:

snip>

Baum may be immune to talk of crises, so maybe comments that are out of the ordinary are automatically a CT (conspiracy theory). But what really irks me is how the hell would she know if the Fed hasn't already alerted the office of fatherland security?? Is she in the loop? And if she is, as a journalist she ought to tell us what we don't already know. The truth is she probably can't infiltrate the loop.

This is a disease common in journalism today. Believe what you want; but I've always found the absence of a good public scandal as suspicious.

Today people seem to think the worst the President is capable of is infidelity. And we believe that journalists like Baum deserve all the credit. Notwithstanding, if they did such a good job they'd have nothing to fear from the competition sprouting up all over the Internet. The Internet, as you know, is in the process of breaking down information monopolies controlled by the likes of the outfit Baum works for. It's no secret how consolidated the media business has become structurally.

snip>

Safehaven sprouted up in order to fill a need. The principal founder is Bruce Stratton, a retired stockbroker that has worked in the financial industry since April 25th 1966.

The stuff that mainstream typically publishes, let's face it, is homogenous; they all talk down to readers, and promote special interests; they make sound bites out of everything; all of their stories have happy endings. I personally can find at least one fallacy in every report on financial markets. Stratton says he started Safehaven because he wanted "To present a more diverse forum for opinions" because he felt that what was lacking was some good old fashioned "honest reporting and analysis of financial news."

more...

[KoKo]

30. A good read, and I liked what he pointed out, that the financial

journalism, as it exists today, is pretty close to the "mainstream news reporting" as it exists today.

Nice to see Baum "Black Helicopter" piece countered, too.

[54anickel]

33. Yep, these 2 sentences seem to sum it all up nicely -

Today people seem to think the worst the President is capable of is infidelity. And we believe that journalists like Baum deserve all the credit.

[UpInArms]

26. Market Numbers and blather at 11:06 EST

Dow 10,423.38 +6.97 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,990.44 +3.71 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,136.22 +1.20 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.702% -0.008

11:00AM: Market continues to trade in positive territory, although gains are certainly not robust at this point... Buyers continue to hold back with a number of potentially worrisome items - the June 30th Iraq handover and Fed meeting - on the calendar... Briefing.com believes the market has discounted many of the aforementioned risks, but this is not to say the indices will pop out of their summer trading ranges anytime soon... Fear of inflation, escalating oil prices, and global violence continue to offset good earnings news - a trend that could prevail during the upcoming Q2 (June) earnings season...

NYSE Adv/Dec 1550/1363, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1375/1339

10:30AM: Stocks continue to edge higher as the tone of trading turns more positive... Advancers are outpacing decliners at both the Nasdaq and NYSE, and up volume also claims a lead over down volume... Industry leadership remains supportive, with tech and financial chalking up the largest gains... Regional banking is the strongest group within the financial space, thanks to news of Wachovia's (WB 45.17 -4.83) purchase of SouthTrust (SOTR 39.43 +4.63) for approximately $14.3 bln...

The transaction would create the 4th largest bank in the US in terms of assets, and would accelerate Wachovia's spread through the growing Southeast market... The deal is also symptomatic of the consolidating financial area, where Bank of America (BAC 84.87 +0.43), JP Morgan (JPM 37.21 -0.02), and SunTrust Banks (STI 64.54 +0.25) have also picked up smaller banks...NYSE Adv/Dec 1565/1210, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1397/1224

[54anickel]

27. Well, certainly no "absence of M&A" in the banking industry itself, is

there?

[54anickel]

28. Deflation Unavoidable?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/laird062004.html

With the giant increases in M3 money, ones first impression is that the FED will just inflate right out of any possibility of deflation. But what if that is not possible?

What if the FED has already passed the threshold of controllability, having encountered an irresistible sink hole of economic activity. Supposedly, the with a combination of low interest rates and high liquidity, the FED can INDUCE the economic demand at will... to a point.

It appears we are reaching that point. Merely leaving interest rates low just pulls demand from the future into the now. If that process continues too long, the consumer reaches a point of debt capitulation, by simply borrowing too much, and being capped from any further borrowing by either spending all his discretionary money on debt service, or having rising interest rates cap any further debt service for him.

It turns out that there is a growth indicator which shows when such a debt maximum is being reached. Here, we'll look at the magic 12 to 17 % debt growth figure, which indicates when the household debt is maxing out. Then well look at the implications of a coming debt deflation which is probably around the corner.

more...

[54anickel]

31. MONEY GAME: Danger of consumer debt bubble bursting

http://www.emedia.com.my/Current_News/NST/Sunday/Columns/20040620113204/Article/pp_index_html

TWO weeks ago, the Bank of England shocked the British financial community when it released figures showing consumers owed about £1 trillion (RM7 trillion), with debts rising by £1 million (RM7 million) every four minutes. But that figure is not as alarming as that notched up by American consumers. In April last year, outstanding US consumer credit, including mortgage and other debts, reached US$9.3 trillion (RM35.34 trillion), up from US$7 trillion in January 2000.

Even earlier, at a level of US$8 trillion, household debts in the US exceeded Americans' annual disposable income for the first time.

Britain and the US are not the only two countries where consumers are living under a mountain of debts.

The situation was so bad that the government introduced a scheme to help consumers. It called for those who repaid three per cent of their loans straight away to be allowed to pay off the rest interest-free over eight years.

more...

[UpInArms]

32. Market Numbers and blather at 12:14 EST

Dow 10,422.42 +6.01 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,991.40 +4.67 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,136.35 +1.33 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.696% -0.014

12:00PM: It's been a spiritless session in stocks this morning, with very little to drive the action and just about no interest from investors... Conviction from sellers and buyers alike has been virtually nil in a extension of the summer ennui... The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have drifted along in narrow trading today of approximately 40, 5, and 5 points, respectively... Volume totals (fairly low) have reflected the lack of activity, along with the split market internals... Most industry groups have traded only slightly higher, with tech at the front of the advance...

The sector has benefited from upward estimate revisions on some of its standout names (Dell, eBay, and Intel)... Also finding some buying interest has been the banking shares - news of Wachovia's (WB 45.21-1.71) $14.3 bln purchase of SouthTrust (SOTR 39.56 +4.76) has fueled speculation of more buying in the regional banking space... Areas, however, that have bucked the broader trend have been confined to telecom, energy, and health care - the latter due to some sector rotation and profit-taking...NYSE Adv/Dec 1680/1373, Nasdaq Adv/ Dec 1456/1396

11:30AM: Indices slip off their earlier highs as the Dow unsuccessfully probed last week's high/the top of its recent trading range around 10437... The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have all receded to their earlier levels as a result... Conviction on the part of investors remains weak - with split market internals and light volume totals... Health care, energy, and smaller sectors like cable continue to trade lower and inhibit the market's advance...

[54anickel]

34. Please Give Me a Housing Bubble

Interesting take....seems it's all about a persons priorities.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mauldin/mauldin061904.html

As I have written about and documented on many occasions, the economic health of the US consumer is hinged upon the housing market and housing values more than any other single factor. Since the entire economy, not to mention the world economy, is heavily leveraged to a healthy US consumer, the question of whether or not there is a bubble in the housing market is of paramount importance. Today, we begin a series on housing. I have found the research to be fascinating and often surprising and contradictory. I trust you will find it useful, and it is almost guaranteed to be debated, as I will depart from the Conventional Wisdom of both housing bull and bears.

Thoughts on the Money Supply

But first, I want to address the recent dramatic rise and now slowing of the growth in the money supply as measured by M-2 and M-3. Many commentators breathlessly see alternatively either doom or a new bull market based upon these monetary measures, or the sinister hand of the Federal Reserve manipulating the markets.

snip>

I think the rapid growth in the money supply is yet more evidence of hedge funds and corporations unwinding their positions and going to cash. To the extent that the markets heeded Greenspan's warning, the Fed "influenced" the money supply. But it was nothing they have done directly. While the rapid rise in the money supply was funds and corporations repatriating cash from abroad and from the carry trade, the recent slowdown is a result of the funds and corporations deploying that cash they raised over the last few months into other investments.

This is corroborated by the movement in the Treasury bond markets, as rates went much higher (hedge funds and corporations were selling in size and in concert) and then as the selling is drying up, rates came back down.

Maybe I am like the man who fell off the Empire State Building, who noted as he passed the 48 the floor that "So far, so good." But I think that the carry trade seems to be unwinding far more smoothly than I would have imagined last year as we saw the trade being "put on." Frankly, I expected one or two hedge fund blow-ups (not a large percentage out of 8,000 funds, by the way), but I have not heard of any. They may still be out there, but for now it is just the usual expected losses which always accompany the end of a trend.

snip>

Housing is not simply an investment decision. There are emotional and psychological parts of the equation that must be factored in.

My business partner, Jon Sundt of Altegris Investments, has a truly magnificent home overlooking Black's Beach in La Jolla, California. There is no good reason he could not move his business to Texas, buy a similarly truly magnificent home and pocket more than few million. His business overhead would drop dramatically. He would get an immediate 10% raise in income as there is no state income tax. I have pointed this out to him on a few occasions. But it is not just a business, dollars and sense, equation.

"Where," he asks, "do I go to surf? Where are the sunsets on the beach in Fort Worth? How do I get my wife to come to Texas in 100 degree weather in August? Or freezing in January?"

Jon is married to the beach, the weather and the lifestyle in coastal southern California. He and millions of people like him. Over the long term, that is good for property values there. It is no guarantee of anything, as over the next 20-30 years, values will rise and fall, as they always do. But if you are not selling, the price of your home is simply a number. Perhaps it makes you feel good, or perhaps not.

What have we learned so far? Parts of the housing equation are the desirability of your local market, the length of time you intend to live in your home and your own ability to stay the course, local economic conditions and your own psychology.

Next week, we look at a Harvard study which says housing is not over-priced. Then we find some apple and oranges flaws in their arguments. We delve more into the psychology of housing and how it affects the national consumer sentiment, and a few other thoughts. I should note I now lease a home, but plan to buy, and we will look at the personal equation from my own decision making process.

more...

[KoKo]

39. He didn't really take into consideration the debt and job losses. That's

my complain with this article. He's correct that some areas of the country will be hurt more than others, and that if you have a beach house in a popular area it's not likely to go down, but as someone who had to sell a house in the last downturn in New Jersey just after a housing bubble there burst, I wouldn't want to go through it again. If one has to change jobs and move out of an area during a bubble burst you lose all that nice equity and what if you refinanced and had to use the money while you were looking for a new job, and now have a house that's mortgaged for more than you paid for it?

I think the debt/refi siuation if much more severe than at any other time in our history, so I still think it's a bubble and lots of folks are going to get hurt. Including many of the "second home" buyers who will have to sell in a big downturn. The "Beach House" awaits for those who have time, money and patience, though, to scap up the good deals.

[54anickel]

44. Yeah, I agree. He's just the type that sees opportunity everwhere. An

optimistic type of fellow. His point is sound IF you don't loose your job, IF your current circumstances don't change and IF you're not already over-extended to the point that a rise in your ARM payments don't cost you your house. Some folks fall into that category, others don't. I just tend to believe there are a LOT more people that don't fit his happy scenario.

[54anickel]

35. 1:21 Paint drying status update

Dow 10,417.70 +1.29 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,990.77 +4.04 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,136.10 +1.08 (+0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.684% -0.026
30-yr Bond 5.363% -0.015

NYSE Volume 604,548,000
Nasdaq Volume 766,836,000

1:00PM: Market drifts a bit lower and nears the mid-point of the day's trading range... Most sectors have moved higher today, but very few (with the exception of semiconductor) have amassed gains of more than 1%... This has made advancing steadily higher very difficult... Treasuries have similarly floated around all day long, within a tight 4.71% to 4.682% yield band... The upcoming 2-year auction (to happen 4 weeks from now) announcement has offered little to trade off of as it was the expected $25 bln amount... Both stocks and bonds have been held in check by rising interest rates... NYSE Adv/Dec 1813/1334, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1529/1407

12:30PM: Equities continue to hold their own above the unchanged mark although buyers have yet to come charging forward... This morning's developments have not given traders much to work with - most of them preferring to wait until later this week when economic reports are released... Currently, the dollar is trading near an 8-week low as compared to the yen as a result of the Nikkei's 1.9% jump... Investors continue to voice their confidence in Japan's economic recovery, heartened by economic reports that suggest proof of increased corporate spending...

Briefing.com has written several reports (with investment ideas) on Japan in the Daily Sector Wrap.... See the page's archive for a rundown...NYSE Adv/Dec 1746/1354, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1511/1391


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1781 (53%) 1509 (48%)
Declines 1398 (41%) 1447 (46%)
Unchanged 177 (5%) 154 (4%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 307 (53%) 416 (56%)
Down Vol* 246 (43%) 309 (42%)
Unch. Vol* 18 (3%) 9 (1%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 108 47
New Lo's 24 39

[54anickel]

36. Wachovia and SouthTrust to cut 4,300 jobs

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373151571

Wachovia Corp.and SouthTrust Corp. on Monday said they plan to cut 4,300 jobs and 130 to 150 branches over two years as part of their merger.

The job cuts amount to about 4.4 per cent of the companies' combined work force of 98,000. The branch cuts total about 4 per cent to 5 per cent of the companies' combined branch base of 3,200.

Ken Thompson, Wachovia's chief executive, also signalled that Wachovia is unlikely to make another big purchase in the next 15 months to 18 months as it integrates SouthTrust. "Any acqusitions that we would do in that period would be small acquisitions," he said on a conference call.

[54anickel]

37. Carlyle goes to the movies (WTF?)

http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2004/06/21/daily4.html

District-based investment firm The Carlyle Group is one of three investors that have agreed to buy Loews Cineplex Entertainment from Onex Corp. and Oaktree Capital Management for $1.46 billion.

The buyout is being led by Bain Capital, an investment firm started in 1984 by Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Spectrum Equity Investors is also part of the buyout team.

snip>

The Carlyle Group has more than $17 billion in assets under management. Last month it agreed to buy Verizon's Hawaiian business for $1.6 billion.

Carlyle was founded in 1987. Its directors have included former President George Bush, Collin Powell, James Baker and former British Prime Minister John Major.

[Sven77]

52. HOLY CRAP

The bushies own TV and radio, now that MM F911 is coming out, their taking over the 3rd largest theater chain ? :shrug: :crazy: :eyes:

[54anickel]

53. Well, you can never be too diversified. HA! Soon those theater will

be running a bunch of "Support our troops" 15 minute spots like back in the old days.

[54anickel]

38. Key Senator Speaks Up for FASB

http://www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,14310||T|1941,00.html?f=home_todayinfinance


on edit: Well, that link doesn't work! Here's a link to the main page, can access the title from here. :shrug:

http://www.cfo.com


Key Senator Speaks Up for FASB

House legislation that would curtail the standards board's proposal on options is ''not going anywhere'' in the Senate Banking Committee.


Stephen Taub, CFO.com

June 21, 2004

The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee lashed out at Congress for undermining efforts by the accounting standard setter to require that companies expense the value of stock options.

Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) said that the Financial Accounting Standards Board "is the proper agency to deal with this, not us," according to Reuters.

Last Tuesday, the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee passed a bill that would aggressively scale back FASB's proposal. The legislation would require companies to expense options granted only to their top five officers, and it would push back implementation of FASB's rule by a year, pending the completion of an economic impact study.

Following a committee hearing on bond market regulation, Shelby reportedly told members of the press that the House legislation is "certainly not going anywhere in the Banking Committee."

The Bush Administration also seems to be supporting the standards board.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Slaughter asking for federal investigation into high gas prices

http://www.10nbc.com/news.asp?template=item&story_id=11769

Congresswoman Louise Slaughter is calling on Attorney General John Ashcroft and the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the high gas prices. Slaughter was in Rochester Monday morning to release a report on prices in the greater Rochester area.

The report, which was put together by a house committee last year, found that the average price of a gallon of gas in Rochester is now $2.15, an increase of 56 cents compared to one year ago.

Slaughter is asking Ashcroft and the federal trade commission to look into price gauging in the oil industry. “I hope that we can find there has been price gouging and that they will put a stop to that and I would like to have them look at the concentration of mergers and see if that has been in any way reflective of what we are seeing now and if so we need to open it up to more competition.

[54anickel]

41. Update 1: Wachovia Deal Sparks Regional Bank Talk

http://www.forbes.com/business/commerce/feeds/ap/2004/06/21/ap1424288.html

Shares of regional banks pushed higher on Monday as Wall Street speculated about which one of the group might be the next acquisition target in light of Wachovia Corp.'s $14.3 billion takeover of SouthTrust Corp.

This becomes the sixth major U.S. banking deal to occur since October when Bank of America Corp. spent $47 billion to buy FleetBoston Financial. That was trumped weeks later when Wall Street powerhouse J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. moved to acquire Chicago-based Bank One Corp. in a $58 billion deal.

The flurry of bank deals has led some analysts to speculate another round of mergers will reshape the U.S. financial services landscape. The late-1990s saw an era of bank mega-mergers that created top-tier institutions such as Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America. This time around it might be the regional banks' turn as chief executives use expansion to grow earnings.

"Our analysis implies that if management scores well on execution, it could enhance earnings growth through acquisitions," said Ruchi Madan, an analyst with Smith Barney. "We've found evidence of sound acquisition strategies adding to growth, which implies that well-managed companies should be rewarded for doing good acquisitions."

more...

[Maeve]

42. 3:09--had to post these numbers!

Dow 10,417.19 +0.78 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,987.19 +0.46 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 1,135.34 +0.32 (+0.03%)

10-Yr Bond 4.686% -0.024

I just liked the percentage of change column.....:hi:

[KoKo]

43. Wow! Did everyone just go home and take a nap at once?

:wow:

[54anickel]

46. Siesta time at the markets I guess! Maeve, great timing to capture

those % change numbers. B-)

[54anickel]

47. duplicate post - nevermind!

[KoKo]

49. NASDAQ Just fell outta bed...

Dow 10,370.36 -46.05 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,976.04 -10.69 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,131.00 -4.02 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.690% -0.020
NYSE Volume 955,376,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,155,747,000
Quote data provided by Reuters

[54anickel]

50. U.S. stocks extend losses in late trade

Last weeks beheading didn't seem to faze them much, but now there is a wall of worry? :eyes:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040621/32beb286c7cd12092870abc25a457ce1_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks erased early gains to trade lower late Monday, as investors focused on the expected launch of a rising interest rate cycle and the handover of power in Iraq next week.

Heavy merger and acquisition activity and some strength in the technology sector helped provide an early lift, but were quickly cancelled out by concerns over the seizure of three British naval vessels in Iranian waters.

Investors continued to wait for "the handover of power from Iraq and the U.S., also the Fed most likely raising interest rates and finally the beginning of the earnings season," said Sam Stovall, senior investment strategist at Standard & Poor's.

"There is a fairly high wall of worry for investors to climb and the keystones in that are higher interest rates, the worries about rising inflation, oil prices that still remain stubbornly high, always the concern in the back of investors' minds about a terrorist act and continued bombardment from the media regarding activities over in Iraq," Stovall added..

[54anickel]

45. Court delays decision as Yukos in discussions

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373157380

A Russian court on Monday delayed final judgment on a $3.4bn tax evasion charge against the oil group Yukos, as a top official suggested talks were under way to resolve the crisis.


In the first confirmation by a member of the government of discussions to keep the group solvent in the wake of growing tax demands, Alexei Kudrin, the finance minister, said: "Co-operation on the possible settlement of the claims is under way."

His remarks came after President Vladimir Putin last Thursday sharply restored investor confidence in Yukos when he told journalists that the Russian government did not want to see the company go bankrupt.

A Moscow commercial court was due to rule last Friday on the tax ministry's $3.4bn claim against Yukos for 2000, which in addition to an asset-freezing order could have pushed the company into bankruptcy. But its hearings continued again on Monday and resume on Tuesday.

However, Mr Kudrin said on Monday: "I think Yukos has enough funds to pay its liabilities. It can sell its assets on the market to meet obligations." He added that the government should not need to administer that process.....

more>

Hmmm, I wonder what buyers are lining up for those assets?

[54anickel]

48. Australian commodities exports to hit record levels as China drives demand

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=8&u=/afp/20040621/bs_afp/australia_exports_040621075344

SYDNEY (AFP) - Australia's commodity export earnings will rise 14 percent to a record 93.50 billion Australian dollars (61.65 billion US) within a year on the back of increasing demand in China and strong global economic growth, the government's forecaster said.


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) said the expected 14 percent growth in the year to June 2005 largely reflects higher mineral and energy prices while the worst drought on record will cut into exports of livestock products.


"This forecast increase mainly reflects higher minerals and energy prices on world markets and increased export shipments in response to global economic growth," said ABARE executive director Brian Fisher.


"China is becoming a strategically important player in global minerals and energy markets and this is expected to provide increased export opportunities for many of Australia's export commodities."

more...

[54anickel]

51. The Market Gets Its Big Chance

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/040621/10166913_3.html

I have a whole list of indicators I expect to begin to fail around next week and into early July, and for the past few weeks, I've focused on that aspect of the market.
In the meantime, however, I keep expecting (and, so far, not getting!) a breakout across the downtrend lines that are sitting right overhead. I've been waiting for the sort of breakout that gets folks excited about the upside. So, today, instead of reviewing the indicators that I believe will mark the end of the rally, I'll review what can make this rally get across those downtrend lines.

The market has had more than ample opportunity to cross the downtrend lines but, as of now, still has not. Now let's examine why this is its chance to do so.


snip>

Here's the market's window of opportunity. As so much sits on the verge of breaking out, it really should do so this week. If it remains dull, then it will have wasted this chance, as by later next week and into early July the statistics are unlikely to support such a rally.

If the market doesn't take the chance when it can, isn't there a message in that?

[54anickel]

54. Closing numbers and yada

Dow 10,371.47 -44.94 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,974.38 -12.35 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 1,130.32 -4.70 (-0.41%)
10-yr Bond 4.690% -0.020
30-yr Bond 5.374% -0.004

NYSE Volume 1,123,893,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,363,398,000

Close Dow -44.94 at 10371.47, S&P -4.70 at 1130.32, Nasdaq -12.35 at 1974.38: The equity market started with mild gains and managed to hold onto them for most of the day, but surrendered all of them - plus more - in late afternoon trading... A combination of factors - a breakdown in sector leadership, a lack of follow through interest from buyers, a technical breach for the Nasdaq (penetrating its intraday range and falling below its 50-day exponential moving average at 1976) - contributed to the finish at session lows...
Conviction on the part of buyers was simply weak for the entirety of the advance (market internals were split, volume was extremely light), and traders opted to err on the side of caution and take profits from the slight uptick... Seven out of the last eight sessions have seen a narrowing of the range trade, which has not exactly increased the odds of a breakout... Additionally, the June 30 Iraq handover date and the impending Fed meeting (also on the same day) have curbed buying enthusiasm... Tech groups like semiconductor started with impressive gains, but quickly gave them back in the afternoon retreat... Without any real leadership to the upside, the rest of the market headed lower...

Biotech, financial, material, telecom, managed care, and homebuilding also posted noticeable losses and kept the indices in negative territory in the last hour...SOX -0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1579/1707, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1316/1777

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1575 (45%) 1372 (42%)
Declines 1722 (50%) 1735 (53%)
Unchanged 145 (4%) 145 (4%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 453 (40%) 417 (30%)
Down Vol* 655 (58%) 820 (60%)
Unch. Vol* 16 (1%) 123 (9%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 132 60
New Lo's 33 44