Liberals Ahead; Layton as Best PM Picks Up (Canadian poll)

[Minstrel Boy]

Today's CPAC-SES tracking poll has quite a large sample size of 1,000 voters.

Things look to be firming up. There's been no big shift in the past three days (except for the Conservatives dropping another point):

Liberals 34%
Conservatives 30%
NDP 21%
BQ 12%
Green 3%

If this is Monday's result, the NDP will make huge gains and will be the story of the night.

Asked who would be the best Prime Minister, 28% replied Martin, 20% Harper, 13% Layton,
5% Duceppe, and 33% were either unsure or said none of the above.

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20June%2024E.pdf

[Screaming Lord Byron]

1. We've been on 21% for the last three days, I believe.

Looking good. Stay on target, stay on target.

[Spazito]

2. Yep, Harper peaked and is on his way down, imo

I hope voters who are on the fence like Michael Moore and will read his opinion of Harper:

Fahrenheit 9/11 filmmaker burns Harper

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2004/06/24/world/moore040624

[Screaming Lord Byron]

3. We all knew it would happen, but he did cut it a little fine.

Still, my faith in the CPC's basic ineptness never wavered. :evilgrin:

[TrogL]

4. Anybody know where they have it broken down by riding?

The fella I'm working for was damn cheerful last night. Wonder why?

[Spazito]

5. I was wondering the same, my local paper hasn't printed any that...

I have seen and I plan on voting strategically if there is one of the opposition parties having a chance of booting our faux Conservative candidate.

[Minstrel Boy]

9. What's your riding, Spazito?

I saw a handful of BC riding polls a while ago.

[Spazito]

12. Southern Interior, Gouk is my rep, ewwwwwww

If you have anything on this riding, it would be much appreciated!

[Minstrel Boy]

16. No more info than what SLB provides below.

All the best getting rid of that sticky Gouk.

[Spazito]

19. Thanks! I am hopeful but not counting on it, gonna do my part...

that's for sure!

[Screaming Lord Byron]

11. I believe the Provincial NDP has a 10% lead in the Southern Interior.

I don't think there's been a riding poll of the Federal riding of Southern Interior, though.

[Spazito]

13. Wow, if that is true, the NDP will get my vote even though I am

a Liberal, now is the time to vote with one's head not with the heart, too much is at stake!

[Screaming Lord Byron]

15. The last Ipsos Reid poll (May 19th) had the NDP leading 46-33

outside of the Lower Mainland. That's Provincial of course, though. There's other info at Election Prediction
http://www.electionprediction.org/2004_fed/riding/59026-southern-interior.htm

[Spazito]

17. Thanks for the link, very interesting!

We had our candidates forum last night and Gouk was hit on his party's support of the US invasion of Iraq and kissing Bush's ass. I doubt there were minds changed and I agree with the prediction in that link in so far as we have, in the past, been a swing riding. Corky did hurt the NDP federally here because of the scandals of his provincial NDP party but possibly, those who were angry, will vote NDP because of the major concern of a faux Conservative win federally.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

18. As to whether the Grits or NDP will be the main challenger

I am clueless. The Liberals had a goodish result last time, but I understand he was a star candidate, and the NDP were lousy in 2000. However, they beat the Libs 22-17 in '97, and the NDP is above '97 levels, so I don't know.

[Minstrel Boy]

7. Haven't seen those,

and CPAC-SES hasn't yet updated its regional breakdown.

There have been some riding polls released publically, but for the most part when a riding is polled, the poll has been commissioned by the parties, and it's not released. (Though if it's surprisingly good news, there's a good chance it'll get leaked.)

[CHIMO]

6. Where Is The Sample Size

Defined as 1,000?
When I look at the SES data they still say that it is comprised of a daily sample of 200 over the last three days.

As for F 9/11, seems that it is only being released in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, at select sites, on June 25, 2004. The other places won't have an opportunity to view it until July 2, 2004.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

8. It's now up to 400 a night, and this is Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday

rolled together, to make 1,000 (Monday was a 200 sample)

[Spazito]

10. True, but Toronto and Vancouver are key players in the vote....

especially Toronto. I didn't include Montreal because the faux Conservatives are a big factor there.

[Spazito]

14. Found this good site on tracking polls while I searched for riding polls..

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html

Wasn't successful on the ridings search but I am going to bookmark this one.

[daleo]

20. Here is my Edmonton Strathcona lawn sign count

Just for the heck of it. I have been counting the last few days, mostly in the university area (Garneau, McKernan, Parkallen, Belgravia):

Azania (NDP) 115 (53%)
Jaffir (C) 40 (18%)
Carlson (L) 64 (29%)

I know this measure is quite unscientific, and will be biased towards the NDP and Liberals since people who live in the university and Old Strathcona area are more likely to be politically on the liberal side (the usual education vs political liberalism relationship). Also, lawn sign counts obviously don't correlate closely with vote counts.

I suspect things might be quite different on the other side of the riding, but this still seems potentially significant. On the other hand, I have lost more bets on Alberta politics than I care to remember (generally because I bet against the conservative landslides).

On edit - spell checker did something unexpected (my mispelled "politally" was changed to "polemically", which was kind of interesting, but I changed it back anyway).

[Minstrel Boy]

21. I think Azania could become Alberta's only non-Conservative MP.

And I will be so happy to see Jaffir defeated.

[TrogL]

22. What about McLellan or Mather

[Screaming Lord Byron]

23. Mather?

I give Bethel an outside chance in East, Maxim a real long shot in Calgary East, and 50/50 for McLellan. As for Kilgour, he seems to survive anything.