Economists Cut 2nd-Qtr GDP Estimate (to 4.1%) in Bloomberg Poll

[papau]

The Commerce Department is scheduled to report its first official estimate for the second quarter on July 30. Should be interesting!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/economies.html

Economists Cut 2nd-Qtr GDP Estimate (to 4.1%) in Bloomberg Poll (Update1)

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- <snip>While the survey's second-quarter forecast exceeds the 3.9 percent the government reported for January-March, indicators for June show the economy cooled in June. Payrolls expanded by 112,000 last month, about half the average for the quarter. Auto sales fell to 15.4 million vehicles at an annual rate, the lowest since August 1998. An index of the services economy fell the most since October 2001.

A separate survey by the National Association for Business Economics showed corporate economists and executives remain ``upbeat'' about the rest of the year, predicting ``solid and fairly stable'' growth at ``about 4 percent.'' <snip>

U.S. economic growth has averaged 3.1 percent annually since World War II. Growth matched that average last year, as the country continued to pull out of the 2001 recession. <snip>

The average forecast for this year is (was? ? :-) ) 4.5 percent, the highest since 1999, and down from the two-decade high of 4.6 percent predicted in last month's survey. The Commerce Department report on first-quarter GDP, at 3.9 percent, was lower than the 4.4 percent it gave in an advance report. <snip>

Economic growth and rising oil prices will push inflation rate to as high as 3 percent in the final three months of 2004 from a year earlier, the Bloomberg survey found....the consumer price index rose 3.1 percent in the 12 months that ended in May. The core index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 1.7 percent. <snip>


Andrew Ward in New York [e-mail].

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Now, back out of that percentage...

Defense spending. You'll get a truer barometer of how the economy is doing.

[Zynx]

2. I think it won't be anywhere close to that.

I think it will be more around 3% due to how bad June was regarding consumer spending.

[papau]

3. In October 03, I said 3.5% for the year - closing 4th qtr at 3.1% - and I

still go with that armchair, back of the envelope, knowing only some overall data from 2 formal projections, bullshit statement I made.

The old rules of thumb really do work well over 12 months and less time frames.

[Tempest]

4. What happened to the "20 year high" claim?

I guess the economy isn't as robust as some economists claimed.

[xchrom]

5. put super rosy projections front and center

and your revised realistic claims -- somewhere out by mars.
economic reporting should be the next arena to see large numbers of people indicted for fucking with the numbers.