Pakistan for Bush: July Surprise? (TNR)

[oldhat]

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904

Late last month, President Bush lost his greatest advantage in his bid for reelection. A poll conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post discovered that challenger John Kerry was running even with the president on the critical question of whom voters trust to handle the war on terrorism. Largely as a result of the deteriorating occupation of Iraq, Bush lost what was, in April, a seemingly prohibitive 21-point advantage on his signature issue. But, even as the president's poll numbers were sliding, his administration was implementing a plan to insure the public's confidence in his hunt for Al Qaeda.

This spring, the administration significantly increased its pressure on Pakistan to kill or capture Osama bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman Al Zawahiri, or the Taliban's Mullah Mohammed Omar, all of whom are believed to be hiding in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan. A succession of high-level American officials--from outgoing CIA Director George Tenet to Secretary of State Colin Powell to Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca to State Department counterterrorism chief Cofer Black to a top CIA South Asia official--have visited Pakistan in recent months to urge General Pervez Musharraf's government to do more in the war on terrorism. In April, Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, publicly chided the Pakistanis for providing a "sanctuary" for Al Qaeda and Taliban forces crossing the Afghan border. "The problem has not been solved and needs to be solved, the sooner the better," he said.

...

A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before election is absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during meetings in Washington." Says McCormack: "I'm aware of no such comment." But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

[Trajan]

1. Hmmmm ....

Both Zalmay and Rocca figure prominently in the Bush/GOP/Taliban pipeline negotiations ....

Nothing but mischeif from these buffoons ...

[oldhat]

2. Sy Hersh on this, too...

Be sure to read this old Sy Hersh article, too.

"The Deal"

http://newyorker.com/printable/?fact/040308fa_fact

“We’ve got to get Osama bin Laden, and we know where he is,” the former senior intelligence official said. Osama bin Laden is “communicating through sigint”—talking on satellite telephones and the like—“and his wings have been clipped. He’s in his own Alamo in northern Pakistan. It’s a natural progress—whittling down alternative locations and then targeting him. This is not, in theory, a ‘Let’s go and hope’ kind of thing. They’ve seen what they think is him.” But the former official added that there were reasons to be cautious about such reports, especially given that bin Laden hasn’t been seen for so long. Bin Laden would stand out because of his height; he is six feet five. But the target area is adjacent to Swat Valley, which is populated by a tribe of exceptionally tall people.

Two former C.I.A. operatives with firsthand knowledge of the PakistanAfghanistan border areas said that the American assault, if it did take place, would confront enormous logistical problems. “It’s impenetrable,” said Robert Baer, who visited the Hindu Kush area in the early nineties, before he was assigned to lead the C.I.A.’s anti-Saddam operations in northern Iraq. “There are no roads, and you can’t get armor up there. This is where Alexander the Great lost an entire division. The Russians didn’t even bother to go up there. Everybody’s got a gun. That area is worse than Iraq.” Milton Bearden, who ran the C.I.A.’s operations in Afghanistan during the war with the Soviet Union, recounted, “I’ve been all through there. The Pashtun population in that belt has lived there longer than almost any other ethnic group has lived anywhere on earth.” He said, “Our intelligence has got to be better than it’s been. Anytime we go into something driven entirely by electoral politics, it doesn’t work out.”

One American intelligence consultant noted that American forces in Afghanistan have crossed into Pakistan in “hot pursuit” of Al Qaeda suspects in previous operations, with no complaints from the Pakistani leadership. If the American forces strike quickly and decisively against bin Laden from within Pakistan, he added, “Musharraf could say he gave no advance authorization. We can move in with so much force and firepower—with so much shock and awe—that we will be too fast for him.” The consultant said, “The question is, how deep into Pakistan can we pursue him?” He added, “Musharraf is in a very tough position.”

[Merlin]

7. A hell of a piece! Thanks, Oldhat. n/t

.

[Rose Siding]

13. Hersh must be half mad

I can't imagine knowing all the things he knows and watching the rest of the world catch up so slowly. Bless him!

[librechik]

3. oh wow, would that give them a Saddam-size bump?

not very damn impressive.

Not impressive enough to overcome 3 years of imcompetence and wasted treasure and lives, if there's any justice. And who in their right mind would believe in that nowadays?

Once their credibility is utterly gone, they must go to the Iron Fist. We'll see how that flies in the good ol USA.

[Beetwasher]

4. LOL! I Think You're Right, Perhaps Not Even An SH Sized Bump!

I'm sure they think their plan is the shit...Pulling OBL out of a hat; won't they be surprised when people yawn!

[struggle4progress]

5. Another excuse for the Pakistanis to kill a bunch of people ...

... and then try to decide whether they've killed any terrorists.

[lagniappe]

6. We should have gone into Pakistan in 2002.

But it's too late now, and Bin Laden will probably never be caught.

Bush blew it, and it is a joke to think that the Pakistanis will catch Bin Laden (or even try for that matter).

[zemman]

9. We should have gone into Pakistan in 2002

Agreed!

I stil have trouble believing we did not do this and capture OBL.

I think this is Bush's greatest failure.

[TahitiNut]

18. No, the US should've accepted the Taliban offer to turn over

... bin Laden to the custody of a third country. It was a criminal act. Let the Bush Regime show the evidence. (Or is it like the WMD?) Emperor DimSon is worse than Nero. The notion that a (Air)Head of State can merely declare someone a criminal without a trial is appalling. That people in this country even go along with this is fucking nuts.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[trogdor]

21. I have no clue what Mr. Name Removed said...

...but even people whose opinions 99% of DUers respect, like Bill Clinton, were 99.44% sure OBL did 9/11. You might think going after international terrorists is like going after bank robbers or cat burglars, but most people have more sense than that, even those who disagree (as I do) with the Bush approach to the problem.

If we want to blame Bush for anything, let's blame him for not finishing the job in Afghanistan like he could have quite easily by now if he weren't really after Iraq all along. The coming election would be a formality if we had succeeded in Afghanistan, and hadn't cheneyed up so badly by listening to the neocons, but unfortunately, effective government isn't on the Bush agenda.

[zemman]

20. I was pretty pro-Taliban...

even a little after 9/11, because they were so much better than the alternative. The Warlords were terrible, and their atrocities were far worse than anything the Taliban did. The Taliban got their start rescuing kidnap victims, and there was a basic goodness in the Student movement that never left.

But the fact remains the Taliban gave haven to a non-citizen who attacked us. If it was a criminal act, then the Taliban were harboring a criminal. If it was war, they were granting asylum to our enemies.

No matter what it is, OBL is an evil man, and the Taliban chose not to surrender him to us.

[Jack Rabbit]

8. This is what Josh Marshall was talking about today

(see thread in General Discussion)

[rooboy]

10. Prediction...

if OBL and Mullah Omar are captured via Pakistan, then Pakistan will explode into violence.

[grasswire]

11. the way to nullify this strategy...

...is to bring it to the attention of the American people. Kerry and Edwards should bring it out right now, and ask why Iraq came before bin Laden.

[varun]

12. Clear links between Pakistani ISI

and 911 were shown by Sy Hersch and others...however, Bush decided to attack Iraq, and give Pakistan an "ally" status.

How stupid is that?

[Rose Siding]

14. Sorry, Kenny Boy

I'm afraid we're gonna hafta indict you this week. Are you free on Thursday? heh heh *too narrow shoulders moving up and down*

[SalParadise]

15. I hope this isn't the story JM was alluding to a couple of weeks ago...

If it is - there's nothing in this that's going to upset any of his supporters - they'll look at it as him just trying to get the bad guys.

It's a good story - but won't have an impact I wager.

[Rose Siding]

16. Oh, I think specific dates for political purposes will get some play

But I do hope JM's breadcrumbs lead to Plame indictments.

[Justice]

17. Aaron Brown (CNN) Did Piece on This Story Tonight

interviewed TNR editor.

very interesting.

[Swede Atlanta]

22. How about a Democratic "Surprise"

If I weren't so opposed to stepping to the level of the opposition I would sugggest Kerry should be talking to the Pakistanis about capturing Osama but offering more money than Bu$hCo is for him and having him be "captured" on Inauguration Day just before Kerry and Edwards are sworn into office. This would be just rewards for the Reagan hostage "miracle".