UnEmp Claims: Seasonal adj drop 39 to 310, raw claim # is up 33

[papau]

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
July 8, 2004 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending July 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 310,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 349,000. The 4-week moving average was 336,000, a decrease of 10,250 from the previous week's revised average of 346,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending June 26, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate of 2.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 26 was 2,872,000, a decrease of 85,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,957,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,918,250, an increase of 2,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,916,250.


UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 351,137 in the week ending July 3, an increase of 32,751 from the previous week. There were 483,401 initial claims in the comparable week in 2003.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent during the week ending June 26, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,754,453, an increase of 33,841 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.6 percent and the volume was 3,330,105.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20040708/bs_nm/economy_jobless_dc

Jobless Claims Lowest in Nearly 4 Years

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. jobless claims staged an unexpectedly steep fall to the lowest level in nearly four years with 39,000 fewer workers applying for initial aid, the government said on Thursday, but seasonal adjustment factors skewed the report. <snip>

It was the lowest level since 302,000 in the week ended October 8, 2000.

A department official said the seasonal adjustment method used to calculate the data had anticipated a surge in claims in the latest week for automakers' annual summer maintenance shutdowns. However, that rise did not occur in the week it was expected.

The official added that July tends to be a volatile month for claims overall. <snip>

============================
Sales at major retailers in June were down 0.2 percent compared with May (Redbook data) .

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=2&u=/nm/20040708/bs_nm/retail_sales_dc

Retailers Blame Weather for Poor Sales
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other U.S. retailers reported disappointing June sales on Thursday as unusually cool, wet weather in parts of the country hurt demand for summer merchandise.

Some specialty retailers also warned of worse-than-expected profits because of the poor sales performance. <snip>

[Frodo]

1. Probably a one week fluctuation

Doesn't mean much. I expect we will average around that 340k line for several months with the occasional dip to 300-310 and climb to 370.

[papau]

4. the climb to 370 when auto lines close for new models is a given

I agree.

:-)

[Frodo]

5. Sorry I missed you last week.

I was on vacation last week and didn't notice your mail to me until it was too late to participate in a conversation.

I didn't have much to add. I still haven't wormed my way through the birth/death adjustments.

[papau]

6. No problem - Hope you had a great vacation!

:-)

[cthrumatrix]

2. seasonal adjustmenst...political adjustment.... just say "we can't tell"

and if we did...no bad numbers can be shared...orders from bunnypants

[papau]

3. on edit: Reuters: "seasonal adjustment factors skewed the report"

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20040708/bs_nm/economy_jobless_dc

Jobless Claims Lowest in Nearly 4 Years

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. jobless claims staged an unexpectedly steep fall to the lowest level in nearly four years with 39,000 fewer workers applying for initial aid, the government said on Thursday, but seasonal adjustment factors skewed the report. <snip>

It was the lowest level since 302,000 in the week ended October 8, 2000.

A department official said the seasonal adjustment method used to calculate the data had anticipated a surge in claims in the latest week for automakers' annual summer maintenance shutdowns. However, that rise did not occur in the week it was expected.

The official added that July tends to be a volatile month for claims overall. <snip>

============================
Sales at major retailers in June were down 0.2 percent compared with May (Redbook data) .

[Frodo]

7. The automakers actually lay people off for this?

Retooling for the new models or plant maintenance or whatever... I suspect it's a few weeks worth or time involved.

Do they really lay people off (such that they would be eligible for unemployment insurance)???

I can't believe the unions would agree to that kind of deal... unless it basically gives their members an uncharged summer vacation every year?



I would have done the contract more like a teaching position - you may not get PAID during the summer break (or you can spread your annual salary over the full year - may not work as well with all the overtime), but you're still "employed". Why fire and rehire?

[Beaker]

8. a lay-off isn't "fire & rehire"...

I once worked for a country club in St. Charles as a waitcaptain- the club sold it's clubhouse and part of it's golf course to Arthur Andersen for a training facility. With the money, they bought some adjacent land and built a brand new clubhouse. there was about a 6-week period during the winter that both clubhouses were closed for the move, an the waitstaff was "layed off" during that period- we were able to apply for, and recieve unemployment benefits.
when the new clubhouse opened, we went back to work- but there was no "re-hire" involved.

same thing with re-tooling at an auto plant- there's nothing for the regular line workers to do during that time, so they get layed off temporarily. Since it's summer, they can enjoy the weather and take the kids on vacation.

[Frodo]

10. How then is that different from teacher?

You have a job (you aren't "unemployed"). At least, that's the way I think it is - and my brother has been a teacher for awhile. No "break in service" no negative impact on benefits... just no pay while there is no work.

If it's anticipated each year - why is the event eligible for unemployment benefits?

[daa]

9. I would expect claims to fall

as less people fired are eligible for unemployment. When a company fires you and hires you back as a contractor for no benefits and half the pay you are one of shrubs small businesses. When companies then cut contractors first guess who is self employed and receives nothing. You've got it.

And then we have IBM in Carolina. They tell a subcontractor when they fire someone. That sub then makes an offer, at half the pay of course. Turn it down, you lose. If you accept, it is 24 hours and they call you at 2 or 3 in the morning until you quit - again no unemployment.