NYT: Recovery Trying to Keep Its Legs Suddenly Feels Woozy

[DeepModem Mom]

A Recovery Trying to Keep Its Legs Suddenly Feels Woozy
By EDUARDO PORTER

Published: July 12, 2004


Retail sales slowed in June. Auto purchases declined. Several technology companies warned about weak software and hardware spending at the end of the second quarter.

Less than three years since the United States emerged from a recession, a patchwork of unexpectedly soft economic reports is raising doubts about the vigor of the recovery....

***

Indeed, stock prices have faltered since the end of June, as corporate earnings have disappointed investors. And bond prices have risen, as evidence of economic fragility has allayed fears that inflation will accelerate. The recent sluggish economic indicators have inspired a note of caution in forecasts which until now had been unabashedly bullish.

"Economic data over the next several weeks are likely to follow the theme of slower growth with continued inflationary pressures," wrote Andrew Tilton, an Goldman Sachs economist, in a note to clients. "In addition to a weaker trend of consumer spending, we expect some modest deceleration in factory sector activity."

But, despite the scattered straws in the wind, most economists remain confident that economic growth is not collapsing but is shifting to a lower, more sustainable rate....


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/12/business/12slow.html

[The Zanti Regent]

1. ...but but but but Rush says the economy has NEVER BEEN STRONGER...

...and it was sooooooooooo bad under Clinton!

[izzie]

2. Every one seems to be buying like crazy here.

I will say one I knew bought a duplex to be sure it could be paid for but even if things are not great it has not stopped people from building and buying houses. I have been told I come from other time so do not know how to live. Maybe so.Their does not seem to be so many people coming to Maine this summer and that is a big part of this states income.

[Dover]

14. The flurry in buying real estate may have something to do with buyers

wanting to jump on the low interest rates before they increase more.
That window of opportunity is closing as we speak. Also big builder/developer companies are building, even if they only break even, because they are satisfying their stock holders that they ARE productive, as regards reports of "new homes/businesses built".

But all that will change by next year as this housing bubble either bursts or loses steam more slowly.

[Norquist Nemesis]

21. True. Same around here BUT

If you really look at inside of those houses once the new owners move in, they are often without expensive curtains and furniture. They go to Wal-Mart and buy the cheapest vinyl mini-blinds they can find to cover the windows, move the old 'comfortable' furniture into the family room/great room keeping the living room empty, keep their upstairs doors closed when company comes over, etc.

It's an art to subtly hide the struggle to make the mortgage and taxes while parading the new stuff to make them seem to be well off.

[trogdor]

27. Well, in defense of cheap vinyl mini-blinds...

...if I have no choice but to buy cheap plastic crap from China, I'll buy the cheapest plastic crap that will still do the job. They don't get one more penny out of me than is absolutely necessary. Same goes for furniture. The really good stuff is hard to find anymore, and even harder to identify. I've seen "expensive" stuff fall apart just as easily as the cheap stuff because nobody makes stuff to last anymore.

Upstairs doors are closed at my place, too. I don't want people poking around in my bedrooms.

[Norquist Nemesis]

33. Me too! LOL

It's all I can afford. And I don't like people snooping either. In fact, I don't invite anyone over partly because my place is so tiny and stuffed with way too much stuff and no homey decorating things to speak of.

My point is that the people buying these new houses are signing big mortgages and sacrificing or scimping on those things that make the house a home...all in an effort to give a show of being well-off. They will pay for being in the upper-upper (or more) neighborhood so they can advertise it. But what's inside shows a different story.

[progressivebydesign]

25. It's the threat of rising interest rates...

.. they say the rates will never be this low again. It's causing a feeding frenzy. Happens every time..

[unblock]

3. yeah, well, then why isn't the stock market zooming up?

if we were at the cycle they would have us believe we were at, the stock market would already be well past new all time highs.

instead, the market is still in a trading range, and its upside is limited - markets almost always go down within the 6 months of the start of a fed rate hike cycle.

if we had a recovery, we must have missed it, right?

right. the recovery went to the defence industry and to the republican-donating portion of the economy. the rest of us got $300 and a pink slip.

[saracat]

4. Wow! I missed the Recovery?

I must have been asleep at the wheel!

[screembloodymurder]

5. Me too!

In fact, it missed the whole state of PA.

[0007]

6. Everyone is driving new cars, homes are selling like hot cakes,

everyone is going back to work, and everyone feels safer from terror. It took four long years of hard work to finally dig out from the terrible hole that Bill Clinton put this country through. We made sacrifices, like giving up our civil free rights and the blood of brave Americans, but it was worth it!!

People just don't get it!!

I wonder what the next four years will be like?

[Ironpost]

18. Under Kerry and Edwards, Utopia

[bobbyboucher]

26. More like facing harsh realities,

created by Bush/Cheney fuck-ups. Care to explain your obvious slant?

[trogdor]

28. It's called sarcasm.

Usually, people put a fake html tag at the end of a post to identify them as such.

/sometimesyouhavetoreadbetweenthelines

[bobbyboucher]

29. Sure, but from what POV?

Sorry. Looks to me like the poster was obviously trying to sarcastically say that Kerry/Edwards won't do any better than Bush/Cheney, or some such thumb-up-the-arse idiocy. Like they could do worse.

That wasn't obvious?

[Ironpost]

30. actually, what I was saying

is that we, the united states will start on the road to reconciliation and in the mean time we will be blessed with jobs and HOPE. We the people of the U. S. deserve an honest government... these folks in the whitehouse are the most crooked incompetent bunch of lier's and thieves I've ever heard of. 'nuf said

[mhr]

7. Unemployed Four Years - What Recovery?

eom

[Zech Marquis]

8. yeah I saw the "recovery" alright

it was like a bubble my 2 year old nephrew likes to play with in the front yard--my sister blows it from the Spongebob toy, it floats in the air, then he runs over and pops it.

And saying that an actual recovery DID exist is being generous! You can't count the loccal Hardees and KFC as being a strong indicator of seeking new employees (although the BFEE claims that making those thickburgers IS a manufacturing job :eyes: )

[ixion]

9. unexpectedly soft economic reports

unexpectedly, only because they were'nt looking.

The economy has NEVER recovered from the recession that commenced once BushCo stole the WH.

Neocons don't really want a healthy job market, as it increases salaries. It's better to have a buyers market (from a corporate perspective) to keep salaries low and working conditions extreme.

They don't mind low-wage jobs being created, because it gives them 'jobs creation' figures to site. But the truth is that the technology jobs market is pathetic right now, among other industries. The only areas that are hiring are security and defense corporations. If you don't believe me, all you have to do is check the job boards. There is very little to choose from, and what's there does not pay well, IMO.

By my estimation, the recovery was not a jobless one, it was FAUX recovery, that never really existed to being with.

[natrat]

11. dont you wonder

whether this time the shoe will really drop like an out of control locomotive. Interest rates go to 45 year lows, surely someone will pay for all this cheap money

[Mari333]

10. If you expect people to work 2-3 6 dollar and hour jobs to survive

and then expect them to pay car insurance, health care costs, buy food, heat their homes, pay for small necessities, buy gas for their cars, etc etc etc..
and if they need medication and they are elderly? and are scraping to get by on medicaire with spiralling costs ?
Forget it..they wont be able to buy anything extra.
This is what greedy outsourcing corporations do. They did it in the 80's when Raygun was in and they are doing it now.
People in the US cant afford to buy the goods produced somewhere else by the people who are being paid slave wages by corporate morons.
I rebel by not buying anything. Just a little food .
Mute all TV commercials, or dump your TV for good.
Use as little gas as possible.
Rebel. Dont buy a damned thing you dont need.
The hell with corporations. I wont give them my ear time , my money, or my life.
They screw people, people have the power to screw them back.

[natrat]

12. i saw that movie

the corporation the other day and i immidiatly started muting tv commercials and the site of a sopping mall made me sick

[Mari333]

13. absolutely!

Malls, to me, are nothing but the beginning of landfills.
Stop buying anything.
You can purchase clothes at second hand stores.
Buy groceries thru a food co op or Save a Lot.
Start a barter system with friends, have a neighbour fix your roof, and you do his or her dishes for a week (as an example)
Live communally..a lot of older women are doing that now. Buying a home together to make ends meet.
Mute all commercials if you own a TV.
Dont allow corporations to own your brain space.
Give the finger to billboards in your mind. Decide that if they are selling something and invading your ear and eye space, you wont buy it for sure.
We dont need that much to live.
Go to garage sales and buy what you need .
Its amazing how much we DONT need to live just fine.
If you have time, research who sells what and what corporations have outsourced and hurt people and continue to hurt people and other animals on the planet.
Then, let them know you wont buy from them.
Re use No 2 plastic if you have it.
Try to buy vegetables that arent wrapped in No 2 plastic...No 2 plastic is from oil..
everything we buy wrapped in oil (polyethylene) is made from the blood of other human beings, and goes right into Dick Cheneys pockets as profit.
Rebel on a local scale. It feels good, and I can go to bed at night knowing I am not contributing to the corporate bastards and their murderous greed.

[dumpster_baby]

19. great philosophy, Mari. We can however do other things to fight back

We could for example take over pacifica radio foundation. It is a non profit foundation that operates radio stations in several large metro areas. THey are putatively a "liberal" outfit, but mostly they just play music. They do have on Amy Goodman of democracyNow for 1 hour.

But it is organized so that programming is ultimately determined by boards that are elected by members. Anyone can be a member by donating 25 bucks or volunteering 3 hours for a pacifica radio station.

Once we have enough votes, we could vote onto the boards radical leftists who could then turn the programming over to daytime talk radio, and pump out leftist versions of Rush Limbaugh, et al.

Then turn over the nights and weekends time to informercials, and use those revenues to start buying other radio stations.

Repeat this procedure until AMericans are progagandized leftwing as opposed to right wing.

You up for it?

[Rebellious Republican]

31. A simple plan for recovery, and I am not an economist........

Corporations should give americans their jobs back, pay better wages, give lower and fewer bonus's for CEO's to run their companies into the dirt. Then the other 98% would be able to spend money on the products that the companies produce. There by increasing sales and profits.

[mhr]

32. Mari I am With You - I Have Been Living This Life For The Last Four Years

Unemployed 4 years.

TV free for three years.

[DeepModem Mom]

20. Nobody says it better, Mari -- thanks for your forceful words. n/t

[Invalence1]

37. Amen, right on or whatever affirmative approbriation you prefer. I agree.

[dusty64]

15. There is NO recovery

unless you are among the richest 1% or a corporate executive and there NEVER has been over the last few years. It is nothing more than corporate media propaganda intended to boost the extreme right and they hope if they repeat the lie often enough some of the citizenry will ignore their crappy economic fortunes and vote rethug in November or whenever their poll numbers determine they may reschedule the election to.

[gristy]

16. deleted

[soothsayer]

17. well, it's hard to sustain those lies of a recovery. eventually the truth

will out!

[gasperc]

22. funny, I've been woozy since 12/12/00

:silly:

[DeepModem Mom]

23. LOL!

[progressivebydesign]

24. We "emerged from a recession"????

Wow.. that's news.. perhaps they can tell that to the numerous local businesses that have closed here in just the past 6 months... or to the chronically unemployed, or underemployed, nor recent mass layoff victims. I hate articles like that where they prounounce the end of a recession, almost three years ago, as though it's an accepted fact.

[tom_paine]

34. Man, and THAT'S with all the Bushevik Stalinizing of the numbers

The economy must still be in the shitter!

[Hobarticus]

35. Gas prices are creeping up again...

Time to have the House of Saud over for dinner again.

[Kinkistyle]

36. How can I shop when there are terraists EVERYWHERE!?!

I have all my doors and windows sealed shut with duct tape and plastic wrap and I have taken up residence underneath my living room coffee table. How do they expect me to go shopping and spend money when I am living in constant fear of Al Qaeda, Al-Zarqawi and Michael Moore's lies?

[truthisfreedom]

38. it's too late for the best of economies to save bush. he lost so much

ground during his 3.5 years in office that he can't play make-up now. people look at him subconsciously with a wary eye, thinking that 3.5 of the next 4 years will be economic havoc as well.