Polls: Kerry Leads Bush in Pa. and Ore.

[Judi Lynn]

Jul 24, 4:27 AM EDT

Polls: Kerry Leads Bush in Pa. and Ore.

By WILL LESTER
Associated Press Writer


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democrat John Kerry holds a 10-point lead over President Bush in Pennsylvania, and a slight lead in Oregon, polls released Friday said.

Two new Florida polls found the race deadlocked in a three-way race, suggesting that independent Ralph Nader again could play a pivotal role in the essential swing state of 2000. Bush won the disputed Florida election by a margin of a few hundred votes, and Democrats blamed Nader, who had more than 97,000 votes, for tipping the balance in the state and awarding Bush the presidency.

In Pennsylvania, a key swing state won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, Kerry was up over Bush by 48 percent to 38 percent, while Nader was at 5 percent, in a state poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times.

In Oregon, Kerry led Bush 50 percent to 42 percent, while Nader had 4 percent, according to a poll by the American Research Group. Gore narrowly won Oregon in 2000.
(snip/...)

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_POLLS?SITE=FLDAY&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

[WindRavenX]

1. If Nader gets on the ballot in OR...

...it might be the lone state where Nader flat-out hands W the electoral votes.

[fujiyama]

2. I doubt Nader will have that great

of an effect.

It looks like Kerry has a comfortable lead even with Nader.

Not that I want to see Nader on the ballot. If he can be kept off all the better, but I think the GOP will get him the signatures needed (in OR and MI as well).

[WindRavenX]

3. OR is actually fairly conservative

Despite the image of Oregon being full of hippies, the only remotely "liberal" part of Oregon is the Willamette valley; east and west of said valley is wicked red and a hot bed of nazi/hate group crap.
Nader, among the liberals, is a god. He will get their votes here.

[Arugula Latte]

4. However, I think Nader will take far fewer votes than in 2000

The fact that Ralph couldn't get 1,000 people to show up and legitimately sign his petition TWICE in PORTLAND is very, very telling.

[Arugula Latte]

5. One other thing

In 2000, I saw Nader stickers everywhere. I have yet to see one in Portland this time around.

[cthrumatrix]

6. The skinny is out on Nader.... not the same mistake made again

[Pastiche423]

10. The southern coast has several liberal pockets

I know. I live there.

Having said that, Nader did NOT get on the ballot the second go round. Many of my acquaintances that voted for him in 2000, have told me they would not vote for him in November.

[Doosh]

7. even with Nader at 4%, Kery comfortably ahead

[stevedeshazer]

8. No way does Nader get 4% here this time

He only got 5% last time, and I don't know a single person here who plans to vote for him this time around.

[featherman]

9. Never much doubt for me on these two

state. As a long time Oregonian, I had to wonder what eastern pundits were smokin' when they gave Bush the edge out here. I like Oregon as a +6 for Kerry without Nader on the ballot and a +4 with. Pennsylvania is a +6 for Kerry. These states EV's can be counted on (barring my usual caveats re catastrophic events that change the equation). Kerry campaign should match advertising dollar for dollar and continue to energize DEM vote.
Generally if Kerry takes 2 out of PA, FL, OH, Bush is mathematically eliminated regardless of longshot "flipping" other (proGore 2000) battleground states (WI, NM, ME). I consider MI not a battleground but DEM.

[Arugula Latte]

11. Welcome to DU, featherman!

...from a fellow Oregonian (of 9 years)... :hi: :toast: