What's the Presidential Tipping Point? | NYT

[Ediacara]

What's the Presidential Tipping Point?
By MICHAEL ORESKES

Published: July 25, 2004

IN presidential elections much is made of the power of incumbency. Who but the president can order up an aircraft carrier for a speaker's platform? But there are perils, too, as George W. Bush is finding. Because when you are the incumbent the election is, fundamentally, about you.

On this summer weekend, jammed between the harsh report of the 9/11 commission and the nomination of John Kerry at the Democratic convention, Mr. Bush finds himself in the same difficult place as Harry S. Truman in 1948 and Jimmy Carter in 1980: an incumbent facing a dubious electorate that could tip either way.

"At some point, politicians can step over an amorphous line that separates good or questionable judgment from inexcusably arrogant, outrageous or incompetent behavior," said Professor Jeffery A. Smith, an historian at the University of Wisconsin and the author of "American Presidential Elections: Trust and the Rational Voter." "That shatters trust. Democracy is built on perceptions of trustworthiness. We bond with politicians who tell us they like us and are like us, but their images and stories can be built up and torn down by what they actually do. If they disappoint, they may be discarded if the alternatives don't look worse."

More at the New York Times

[Eurobabe]

1. what a load of horse hockey!!

Politically speaking, the shock of the attacks seemed to wipe away the debate about Mr. Bush's legitimacy. His support soared to historic highs as the nation rallied around him. In that sense, most Americans "voted for" Mr. Bush in the fall of 2001.

Bu$h legitimate? Never in a million years dude.

[RummyTheDummy]

13. I think he's talking about Jon Q. Public

When he makes the claim. Even though everyone here is enlightened to that fact, the moron majority isn't. I happen to think he's right in that sense. 911 did add some legitimacy to Bush -- to the uninformed majority.

[Demeter]

2. So? What Is the Tipping Point?

I would have thought we passed that point at least in April, with casualties, gasoline, inflation and unemployment(real term) all up.

[featherman]

3. The key is when does "the media" tip?

I thought the tipping point had come with the Abu Ghraib scandal on top of all the other (WMD, etc.) but judging from CNN, NBC, WP, NYT, etc that point has not yet arrived. A free press worthy of its name would be hounding this group out of office by now with no apologies. It is unconscionable that they still give the admin the credibility they do. (punctuate with puzzled headshake).

[SoulLefty]

4. like that'll happen

The Media's tipping point is where the ruling class has it's tipping point is, and it can't be reached. Like it or not, Bush's policies have been VERY good to the ruling class (why do you think the media is so confused by why bush isn't at 70% in the polls?).
If you made 7 figures in 2000, you probably make 8 in 2004. You're children will never have to compete, their kids will get into the best colleges, not because they are the smartest but because they are rich. Most people can't afford to send their kids to college, and loans can't even begin to pay for it. Even if they could, being wealthy still means you're far more likely to get into colleges. Having gone to a competetive highschool means far to most admissions departments than race does. What do you think it means if you've gone to a competetive highschool? It means you come from a wealthy district. Do you think these reporters and their editors had any problems there? These are the people now buying third homes, because interest rates are so low. How many Americans own their own home, let alone could afford to buy extra ones?
No, Republicans have done their best to make sure that the media, always out of touch on the lofty perch it has put itself, will never have to suffer from the effects of it's own vapid coverage. Their class will always be taken care of.

Edited for grammar, 1:40 july 24th 2004

[calimary]

5. Welcome to DU, featherman AND SoulLefty!

Glad to have you with us. TWO MORE VOICES for sanity! TWO MORE VOICES to nag our reps and our media. Yes. Our reps. I'd keep calling their offices. Their staffs will still be there. Plus, everybody in Congress bailed under a cloud on Friday, with much of America grousing that their work was unfinished. The congressperson or senator who shuts it all out and pretends this is just a nice time out is a fool. Believe me (especially in an election year - AND an election year as crucial as this one) nobody is gonna leave their phone off the hook or their pagers back on the bedside table. When they're home in their districts, they're gonna hear from angry people. Lots of angry people. Wondering why they wanted to get outta Dodge when there was still so much left unresolved and/or incomplete. And those constituents are like a bunch of angry parents with kids who just jumped up from the dinner table and ran outside without taking their dirty dishes to the kitchen.

KEEP ON THEM ALL!!! CONSTANT VIGILANCE!!!! IF THEY THINK WE DON'T CARE, THEY WON'T, EITHER!!!!

[faithnotgreed]

7. welcome soul lefty!

[newyawker99]

10. Hi SoulLefty!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[doctorbombeigh]

11. I disagree - pragmatically

Bush has mishandled his fiduciary duties to their investment. This, as Don Corleone said*, this they do not forgive. He has damaged their ability to completely control both the American election and the US electorate (see: Dean, Howard).

Perhaps more importantly to them, he has done serious damage to their ability to control poor Muslim populations in oil-rich regions (see: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, et al.) Not smart. Barring Mr. Kerry being found, as the old saying goes, en flagrante with a live man or a dead woman prior to November, he should take this election. (Unless it's cancelled, an interesting possibility and not one I'd put past these clowns.)

*I paraphrase and someone else mentioned the Don here the other day - can't remember who he/she was, but it was very clever.

[faithnotgreed]

6. good question & welcome to du

[salonghorn70]

8. Very Interesting Story But I Have A Question

Why does the story use Truman and Carter as examples of Presidents facing dubious voters in the summer berore the election but not Bush 1?

[doctorbombeigh]

12. Truman & Carter's numbers at this time in their years most closely...

resemble Bush's right now. His father's were better, I think.

[Dover]

9. If this author thinks the 9/11 report was "harsh", that should be an easy

gauge of just how far to the right he stands. I suppose he thought his Momma's milk was harsh too.