Gallup: Slight Leads for Kerry in Ohio, Bush in Florida; Missouri a Tie

[tritsofme]

Ohio's poor economy could be reason why this red state is threatening to go blue

PRINCETON, NJ -- New CNN/USA Today/Gallup surveys in three states won by President George W. Bush in 2000 all show close races. The president leads Sen. John Kerry by three to four percentage points in Florida, the two candidates are tied in Missouri, and Bush trails Kerry by five to six points in Ohio. In all three states, the economy is the most important issue among four measured in the polls, which also included Iraq, terrorism, and healthcare.

The polls were all conducted July 19-22, and include from 775 to 869 registered voters per state, with 636 to 699 likely voters. The results in each state are as follows:

Ohio -- Kerry leads Bush by 51% to 45% among likely voters in a two-way contest, and by 48% to 43% in a three-way matchup that includes independent Ralph Nader.

Missouri -- A dead heat, whether Nader is in the race or not. There is a 48%-48% tie in the two-way, and a 47%-47% tie in the three-way, race.

Florida -- Bush leads by 50% to 47% in a two-way contest, and by 50% to 46% if Nader is included.

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http://gallup.com/content/?ci=12445

[bluestateguy]

1. Kerry just needs either Ohio or Florida

Bush really needs both, Kerry just needs one. The Gore states plus Ohio is 280 Electoral Votes.

[tritsofme]

2. 5% MoE in MO and OH; 4% MoE in Florida

Ohio is the only poll outside the MoE.

Gallup should stick to national polling.

[flaminbats]

3. these polls shouldn't include Nader..

Neither Nader or Cobb will be on the ballot in Missouri, and in Ohio they have until August 19 to get 32,290 signatures necessary to be on the ballot. Strange how Nader appears in state polls where his name doesn't.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. Shows the media bias

they are making Nader out to be 'the spoiler' again, even though he isn't the candidate of any third party nationwide and isn't even on the ballot. If they were sincere in thinking that a third party candidate were going to make a difference this time, they would focus on Cobb or the Libertarian candidate, which they aren't doing.

[jimshoes]

5. I agree,

What's the point of being on any state ballot if you are not on all 50 state's ballots. It's pointless it seems to me.

[w4rma]

7. Publicity for Nader, whom they hope will be The Spoiler, again. (nt)

[tritsofme]

6. kick