Explaining the Mystery of Election ParityBy Thomas C. Veatch, 11/21/2000.
Not only the presidential race results, but also the individual and collective results of many representative elections throughout the US are so close -- and so widely, consistently close across states, offices, and branches of government -- that some systemic pattern must be responsible. The data simply does not fit a model of competing conservative and liberal ideologies, which if they actually meant anything, would not correlate so perfectly with equality of constituent populations. I argue here for an explanation of what we observe, based on four ideas:
* 1) Elections are now scientific: socio/demographic modelling has become so sophisticated that elections have come under the modelling capabilities of accurate, predictive, statistical models with small and decreasing error margins
* 2) The two party system imposes an ultra-simplified ideological bipolarity onto the distribution of voters across the high-dimensional space of voter-influencing issues.
* 3) Party politicians, preferring power over ideology or belief, adjust the content of their campaign platforms (not excluding voteable issues such as personality) in order to expand their appeal to a majority of voters.
* 4) The two-party system is defended against any new alternatives through the power of corporate money, which is given to the two parties and withheld from alternatives in order to ensure systemic support for corporate interests.
These elements provide both an explanation of what we see now, as well as a prediction for our future.
Both Clinton, who remade the Democrats into New Democrats, and Bush 2, who remade the Republicans into Compassionate Conservatives, followed the clear evidence of increasingly precise models of national voting behavior in changing major elements of their party platforms in their efforts to gain power. It is, of course, no surprise that ideological purity is valued less than actually gaining power, since successful politicians are almost by definition those that value power over ideology.
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http://www.tomveatch.com/election.parity.htm