STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 29 July

[ozymandius]

Thursday July 29, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 175
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 96
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 230 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 284 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 497
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 980
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 28, 2004

Dow... 10,117.07 +31.93 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq... 1,858.26 -10.84 (-0.58%)
S&P 500... 1,095.42 +0.59 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.59% -0.01 (-0.22%)
Gold future... 389.00 +2.00 (+0.51%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

ROUGH DAY ON WALL STREET...BUT SAVED BY THE BELL

Stock prices took another dive today, especially in the technology arena. Commodity prices were mixed, but generally higher with oil leading the way. Bond prices and the US dollar barely moved with Treasuries fractionally higher and the dollar slightly lower. Monday and Tuesday gave us positive economic reports with record sales of existing homes, new home sales declining less than expected and consumer confidence rising to a two-year high. Today’s report from the Commerce Department on Durable Goods Orders came in weaker than expected, and worked to unwind the optimism from the two prior days. Expectations called for an increase of 1.5%, but the gain was half that at 0.7% for June, the first increase in the last three months. Upon further inspection, transportation orders increased by 4.2% and orders for defense related items grew by a whopping 30.4%. The war keeps government spending at a brisk pace. If we exclude transportation and defense, durable goods orders actually declined by 0.6%. Remember also that new job creation in June was half the prior months, retail and auto sales were reported lower and industrial production declined. There is clear evidence the economy is slowing. The negative economic news and record high oil prices on the NYMEX took their toll on stocks today.

Commodity Prices Moving Higher

While the US economy shows signs of slowing, the increasing demand for commodities is a global event. With demand for energy soaring, especially in China, the Russian government has ordered Yukos (Russia’s largest independent oil producer) to stop oil sales. In a Reuter’s article, “Yukos has said it faces imminent bankruptcy as courts seek to enforce a $3.4 billion tax debt for 2000…A halt to sales would hasten the collapse of the company.” ConocoPhillips has expressed an interest to bid on the company, but it looks more like the Russian government would prefer to nationalize Yukos to keep it for themselves. They played a similar game with Pan Am Silver by burning them on a $38 million investment in a mining property due to “licensing problems.” There are certainly safer countries to invest your money overseas if you want to participate in the global commodity boom. The potential supply disruption pushed crude to a record intra-day high of $43.05 per barrel and finally settled at $42.90, a gain of $1.06 or 2.5% for the day. Unleaded gasoline had a bigger gain of 4.1% by adding a nickel to $1.296 per gallon on inventory concerns. Analysts expected gasoline inventories to increase by 375,000 barrels, but the U.S. Energy Department said they declined by 700,000 barrels while the API reported gasoline inventories declined by 3.3 million barrels. Natural gas and heating oil were also higher by approximately 2%.

Bond Prices and Interest Rates

Bonds and the dollar were very quiet today as stability is always required during Treasury auctions. Yesterday the Treasury sold $11 billion in 20-year TIPS and today they sold $24 billion in two-year notes. I’ll be looking to see the level of participation from foreign central banks, especially the Bank of Japan. According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, Japan has not sold any yen in the last three months to buy dollars. I’m waiting for the day when the only buyers of our new Treasury debt will be the primary bond dealers with the Federal Reserve creating new Federal Reserve Notes (dollars) to buy up the balance. I would not be surprised one bit if the Fed is already making covert buys to monetize the debt, especially on the long end of the curve. It’s easier for them to control long-term interest rates since the Treasury quit selling 30-year debt back in October 2001. If we assume constant demand with declining supply, 30-year Treasury prices will remain higher than they would if they had continued to sell the long bond thereby keeping long-term interest rates artificially low.

Looking Ahead

I’m speculating to say the reason for the late-day rally in stocks was due to the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book painting a rosy picture of the U.S. economy just like Alan Greenspan did in his recent testimony to Congress. If you’re short the stock market, be warned about the release of the GDP numbers coming on Friday. Something tells me our GDP growth will be “better than expected,” launching stocks higher and bond prices lower. I’m still holding my short bond positions in anticipation of lower bond prices next week leading into the Treasury’s quarterly refunding that begins on August 9th. Unless something changes, I plan on taking profits on the short bond position on Friday, August 6th. We’ll see how it all plays out.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. US withstands record oil prices, shock may lie ahead

WASHINGTON (AFP) - World oil prices, sizzling at a record high in New York, present a wildcard menace to the US economic expansion, analysts said.

New York's light sweet crude for delivery in September hit an unprecedented 43.05 dollars a barrel Wednesday and set a record finish of 42.90 dollars, up 1.06 dollars on the day.

-cut-

"Growth, increases in global demand and hunkered down speculators fearful of supply disruptions will keep oil prices high for some time," warned Wachovia economist Jason Shenker.

story

[ozymandius]

3. Oil Results Eyed Ahead of Markets Opening

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were set to open little changed on Thursday even as investors hope that earnings from bellwethers such as Exxon Mobil Corp. will push blue chip stocks higher for a third day.

Offsetting optimism are crude futures hovering near a record high and concern that economic data set for release on Friday will indicate that growth in the world's largest economy is not as good as expected.

"The market is oversold and wants to bounce back but we need a catalyst," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst with S.W. Bach & Co. "As we end this period of earnings, the big overhang remains oil."

But the big drag remains oil.

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.01 Change +0.26 (+0.29%)

http://www.9news.com/acm_news.aspx?OSGNAME=KUSA&IKOBJECTID=0733988e-0abe-421a-000c-640aeb50bcac&TEMPLATEID=0c76dce6-ac1f-02d8-0047-c589c01ca7bf

U.S. economy cools in June & July

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Federal Reserve reported Wednesday that the U.S. economy slowed down in the past two months.

Consumer spending particularly on autos went down significantly after a big surge in early spring.

The survey of business activity from the Fed's 12 regional banks was the latest indication of what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan termed a "soft patch" developing in the economy in June.

The Commerce Department also reported that orders to American factories for big-ticket durable goods had a small .7 percent gain in June. That reflected a surge in demand for military aircraft following back-to-back declines in orders in April and May.

Wholesale prices for commodities like energy, steel and cement were rising but little of those price pressures with the exception of energy were being passed on to consumers.

...more...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ab.te3EhTjg0&refer=top_world_news

Fed Survey Shows Slower Growth in June, Early July

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew at a slower rate in June and early July, as manufacturing expanded in all districts and consumers restrained their spending at stores and auto dealerships, the Federal Reserve said.

``Several districts reported that the rate of growth moderated,'' the Fed said in its latest survey of regional economic conditions, known as the beige book for the color of its cover. Retail sales slowed, and most of the central bank's 12 regions reported a decline in auto sales.

The anecdotal summary matched Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's view in his July 20 testimony to Congress that the economy is passing through a period of ``softness.'' The Commerce Department today said durable good orders excluding transportation equipment fell 0.6 percent in June while a measure of future business investment rose for the first time in three months.

Today's beige book report also echoed Greenspan's comments that rising prices for some raw materials such as steel and energy may be temporary and not necessarily show up in finished products. The Fed started raising its benchmark interest rate last month from 1 percent, the lowest since 1958, and said it can stick to ``measured'' increases unless inflation accelerates.

``Reports of rising prices at the producer level continued to be common, though increases in retail prices were only infrequently reported,'' the report said. ``Wage gains remained generally flat'' for workers while the cost of benefits such as health care rose.

<snip>

Most districts reported greater demand for labor, the beige book said. The Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, Kansas City and San Francisco regions reported ``limited'' shortages of skilled workers.

<snip>

The Fed report said consumer spending ``moderated'' in seven of 12 Fed bank districts and that ``auto sales were generally weak throughout the country in late spring.'' Government reports showed retail sales fell 1.1 percent in June, the biggest decline since February 2003. U.S. auto sales fell 2 percent last month as the annual sales pace dropped to its lowest level in six years.

...more...

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ29jul29,1,7768865.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Orders for Big-Ticket Items Rise Only 0.7%

U.S. durable goods orders were disappointingly weak last month, but hopes for America's expansion remained on track as the Federal Reserve said the economy advanced in June.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that orders for big-ticket items meant to last at least three years rose 0.7% after shrinking 0.9% in May. However, May's drop was revised from a 1.8% decline.

Wall Street expected a much stronger rebound after two months of losses. Analysts had forecast a 1.9% rise, which would have given much fuller support to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's recent assurance that the economy would pick up after hitting a temporary soft spot.

...more...

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/072904dnbuseds.a4f8d.html

Significant layoffs likely at EDS
Plano firm looks to trim $3 billion in costs

Electronic Data Systems Corp. could significantly cut employment as part of a $3 billion cost reduction plan, chief executive Michael H. Jordan said Wednesday.

EDS isn't ready to detail its plans, which are designed to make the Plano company more competitive and profitable over the next 24 to 30 months.

"People are at least 50 percent of our cost, so a lot of it's going to be people – some through attrition, some through severance," Mr. Jordan said after the company's second-quarter earnings conference call.

"This will unfold over the balance of the year," Mr. Jordan said. "There's some things we're doing now, some things that require some investment to do. It's a long-term project.

...more...

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/07/29/BUGUO7UNGD1.DTL

Schwab's streamlining goes on with layoffs
251 employees axed in latest round of cuts

Charles Schwab Corp. fired an estimated 251 employees earlier this week, part of the ailing discount broker's broader plan to save $150 million to $200 million by the end of the year, a company spokeswoman said Wednesday.

Some 65 of the laid-off employees were in Schwab's information technology division. The company also laid off 186 staff members in connection with its plan to close 53 of its 336 retail branches in the United States this year.

The cuts in the technology division eliminated the jobs of about 3 percent of the division's 2,000 employees, spokeswoman Sarah Bulgatz said. Most of the pink slips were handed out on Tuesday, with the majority of layoffs in San Francisco, where Schwab has its headquarters.

<snip>

Schwab plans to complete the closure of its 53 branches by Sept. 3, Bulgatz said. Customers were notified of the branch closings by phone or mail on Wednesday.

...more...

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087374041479

Japan's UFJ could face charges

The Financial Services Agency, Japan's banking regulator, is considering criminal charges against UFJ after the Japanese bank admitted on Wednesday for the first time it had systematically deceived agency inspectors during an investigation.

"We are considering whether we should bring this matter to the judge," said the FSA. "We take this very seriously and we intend to take a tough stance on this criminal activity."

Any criminal charges would further complicate UFJ's planned $84bn merger with MTFG, which was called into question this week when a court ordered the banks to halt merger negotiations until a dispute over the sale of UFJ's trust bank business was resolved.

The merger of MTFG and UFJ would create the largest bank in the world with assets of more than Y190,000bn ($1,700bn) and was announced with great fanfare 10 days ago.

Wednesday's statement said UFJ forged documents and minutes of meetings to give a false impression of its bad-loan problem; lied to FSA inspectors; hid data on a separate computer system; and destroyed potentially incriminating documents.

...more...

http://www.forbes.com/infoimaging/feeds/infoimaging/2004/07/28/infoimagingdeutsche_2004_07_28_eca_0124-0231-Japan-Sony..html

Sony's group operating profit down 41.4 per cent in April-June

Tokyo (dpa) - Japan's Sony Corp. said on Wednesday its group operating profit in the April-June first quarter of fiscal 2004 fell 41.4 per cent from a year earlier to 9.77 billion yen (89.7 million dollars).

The fall was attributed to a slump in its electronics and game businesses.

In the April-June quarter, Sony's electronics business had an operating profit of 6.9 billion yen, down 50 per cent from a year earlier, with a 0.2 per cent drop in revenue to 1.09 trillion yen.

Sony suffered a 2.9 billion yen operating loss in the game business - a deterioration from the 1.8 billion yen profit a year ago. Sales on game business also fell 16 per cent to 105.4 billion yen. Sales of both game hardware and software slumped.

Sony's Vice President Katsumi Ihara said that the Japanese yen's appreciation against the dollar also affected negatively to slash its operating profit by 11.4 billion yen.

...more...

It's MaeveDay!

Reports due today:

Jul 29 8:30 AM
Employment Cost Index Q2
reported -
briefing.com projects 0.9%
market anticipates 0.9%
last report 1.1%
revised from -

Jul 29 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 07/23
reported -
briefing.com projects 340K
market anticipates 340K
last report 339K
revised from -

Jul 29 10:00 AM
Help-Wanted Index Jun
reported -
briefing.com projects 40
market anticipates 40
last report 39
revised from -

Great 'toon Ozy! This alternate universe in which we live is driving me insane. Anger is an appropriate response to the lies and obsfuscations that are foisted through the distorted mis-informing media lens. If you're not angry, you are a pod-person.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning Marketeers!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I will not be around so much today and tomorrow. We are busy putting our lives in boxes for our move on Sunday.

On a positive note: I have sold off most, not all, of the woodshop equipment. Much of the wood has sold too. The exotic species of wood went very quickly. There is also a bunch of shop furniture that I am giving away. Most of it was either found on the street or given to me but remains in very good shape. If you know anyone in the Atlanta area who would like a workbench big enough for the Gods and a metal institutional desk - PM me and we'll hook up. There's lots of shelving of all varieties, too, that I would gladly give away.

It is time to take my son to "school" then it's back to packing for me. I'll check in when I can.

Have a great day watching the fun folks!

all things good,

Ozy :hi:

[Maeve]

7. Packing is such a hassle--glad you were able to find buyers for stuff

I won't be around much, either (no surprise; I have been very busy this summer but today is #2 Son's 17th birthday)

Initial Claims may be a non-story--looking to see basically the same moderate job turnover figures as before. (Reminder for the regulars and explaination for the newcomers--Initial Claims is the number of folk applying for unemployment for the first time. A certain amount of this is going to happen even in a good economy. We are no longer seeing the really big numbers that showed a contraction of the job market, but we haven't seen the robust job growth we need to have, either, to recover the lost jobs since Dubya took office)

[UpInArms]

6. Report: CEOs once again getting hefty pay raises

http://www.newsday.com/business/local/newyork/ny-bzpay293909560jul29,0,7577000.story?coll=ny-nybusiness-headlines

If you didn't get a nice raise last year, look at the boss's paycheck.

The chief executives at America's 1,429 largest publicly held corporations received a 15 percent increase in their compensation in 2003, according to a report released yesterday by The Corporate Library, a Portland, Maine- based independent research firm.

Pay for chief executives at the country's 500 largest public companies soared 22 percent, the survey showed. By comparison, the average increase in pay for all American workers hit 2.23 percent last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

<snip>

Almost every single component of executive pay was up when compared with the previous year - including base salaries, bonuses, long-term incentives and stock grants.

<snip>

The survey measured the median pay of chief executives who held the same post in 2002 and 2003.

...more...

[Maeve]

8. Initial Claims up to 345K, 4-week average down to 336K

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38197.3547569444-816343027&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. initial jobless claims up 4,000 to 345,000 By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 345,000 in the week ending July 24, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of new claims - which smoothes out distortions in the weekly figures caused by weather and other one-time factors -- fell by 1,000 to 336,250. It's the lowest in three weeks. The tiny increase in weekly claims was in line with expectations on Wall Street, where economists were looking for about 344,000 new filings. The number of Americans continuing to receive state unemployment benefits rose by 174,000 to 2.96 million in the week ending July 17, the highest in eight weeks. The insured unemployment rate rose to 2.3 percent from a cycle low of 2.2 percent.

[UpInArms]

10. Great minds think alike!

:hi:

[Maeve]

11. Well, it is the fastest source for the figures!

But sometimes I think there is a psychic bond between you, 54 and me that causes these simultaneous postings...
:pals::pals::pals:

[UpInArms]

14. it's true - we have definitely bonded

:grouphug:

[UpInArms]

12. here's the revision for last week's numbers

Jul 29 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 07/23
reported 345K
briefing.com 340K
market 340K
last week 341K
revised from 339K

looking at it that way, claims only rose 4000 instead of 6000

[UpInArms]

9. U.S. initial jobless claims up 4,000 to 345,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38197.3547569444-816343027&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 345,000 in the week ending July 24, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of new claims - which smoothes out distortions in the weekly figures caused by weather and other one-time factors -- fell by 1,000 to 336,250. It's the lowest in three weeks. The tiny increase in weekly claims was in line with expectations on Wall Street, where economists were looking for about 344,000 new filings. The number of Americans continuing to receive state unemployment benefits rose by 174,000 to 2.96 million in the week ending July 17, the highest in eight weeks. The insured unemployment rate rose to 2.3 percent from a cycle low of 2.2 percent.

8:30am 07/29/04

U.S. WEEKLY CONTINUOUS JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 174K TO 2.96M

[Frodo]

13. Ummmm. Was that a typo on their part?

"U.S. WEEKLY CONTINUOUS JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 174K TO 2.96M"

"Continuous"? Interesting freudian slip, don't you think?

[UpInArms]

15. slipping into reality?

yes, these "continuous" claims just keep rising :D

[UpInArms]

16. Treasurys slip further after jobless claims report

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38197.3807407407-816344187&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys dropped further after the government reported initial jobless claims in line with market expectations, which bolstered thoughts of an expanding economy and employment picture. The second quarter employment costs index rose 0.9 percent, also in line with forecasts and slower than the first quarter's 1.1 percent increase. "The labor market is simply not tight enough yet to lift wages and salaries at a pace that could alone threaten the Fed's presumed core inflation pain threshold of about 2-1/2 percent, but that does not mean Mr. Greenspan and company can relax - if rates don't keep rising the labor market will tighten rapidly," said Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics. The benchmark 10-year note fell 8/32 to 100 31/32, its yield (TNX) up to 4.62 percent.

[UpInArms]

17. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.5. Futures trade comes off its highs, but continues to point to a higher open for the indices... Huge gains in the European bourses, a dip in oil prices, positive analyst commentary on IBM and YHOO, and encouraging earnings reports from the likes of NOC have contributed to the buying efforts.

8:37AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.5. ECI and initial claims data haven't disrupted the positive bias this morning as both were essentially in line with estimates... In fact, futures have ticked higher in the wake of their release

8:06AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Positive bias in the futures market this morning aided by the carry-over momentum from yesterday's late rebound and a dip in oil prices that stems from reports that Russian oil company Yukos will not be prevented from selling oil

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss. September continues to consolidate above key support marked by March's low crossing at 1373. Closes below this support level would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1346 later this summer. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1392.85 are needed to temper the bearish outlook in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low is in or is near. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 5.50 pt. at 1390.50 as of 6:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's short covering rally and is trading above the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1095.17. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned bullish signaling that a low is in or is near. Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1095.18 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1079.50 is the next downside target. The September S&P 500 Index was up 1.70 pts. at 1097.20 as of 6:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

18. IBM outsourcing to cause fewer layoffs (???)

Report says IBM making new effort to find work in company for 5,000 whose jobs are shifted overseas.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - IBM is moving to reduce the number of U.S. workers it lays off due to the transfer of their work overseas, according to a published report.

The Wall Street Journal, citing internal documents from the computer maker and comments from its executives, reported Thursday that IBM is taking more extensive steps to find jobs within the company for those whose work is being shifted to lower-wage countries. IBM became a target of rising criticism about outsourcing of jobs overseas when it was revealed earlier this year it planned to send 5,000 U.S. jobs to India, Brazil and other developing nations.

While IBM does not say it intends to offshore fewer jobs, the paper reported it now expects to layoff only 2,000 people out of the 5,000 whose jobs are being sent overseas. Earlier estimates were that 3,000 would be laid off due to the outsourcing.

Finding new positions for affected employees is made easier because IBM is expected to add overall U.S. and worldwide employment this year. The company said earlier this year it expects to add 15,000 jobs to bring worldwide employment to 330,000 by the end of the year, including a net U.S. employment boost of up to 2,000. The paper said IBM would not say how this new internal-job placement effort would affect those numbers.

IBM's steps include paying for retraining and giving employees more notice, up to 60 to 90 days, that their job might be shifted overseas, to give them more time to find a new position within the company. It also has established a policy that managers cannot hire from the outside if an IBM worker whose job has been moved can fill the open position.

The paper said IBM also is developing software to automate the process of matching employees' skills to job openings. It said it expects to save 20 to 30 percent of the cost of filling positions by shifting an existing IBM employee rather than hiring an outsider.

IBM employees offered new positions may end up in lower-paid positions than the ones they are losing. And workers are expected to take a comparable job if it is offered, the paper said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. 9:36 EST markets are open

Dow 10,138.39 +21.32 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,874.60 +16.34 (+0.88%)
S&P 500 1,099.79 +4.37 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.617% +0.032

[Maeve]

20. Here we go, cheerio!

Dow 10,140.81 +23.74 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,875.25 +16.99 (+0.91%)
S&P 500 1,099.54 +4.12 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.615% +0.030

[54anickel]

21. BUSH HAS A LOT RIDING ON REVISED GDP DATA

http://www.nypost.com/business/18222.htm

snip>

Tomorrow morning the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to issue its revised gross domestic product numbers for the past three years — the entire Bush Administration.

And while the annual recalculations generally don't result in shockers, these changes could deflate the Republicans' message that the economy is robust or soften the Democrats' whine that it's terrible.

snip>

GDP growth weakened from the 4.1 percent annual rate reported in the fourth quarter of last year to 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2004. (It had been at an 8.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2003, but that was obviously a tax-cut-induced fluke.)

Part of tomorrow's release will be the first estimate of growth for the second quarter that ended this past June 30. And the guessing is that this number will come in at either 3.7 percent or 3.8 percent, or just slightly less than the first three months of this year.

None of these numbers can be used as comparisons to years gone by because the government over the past decade has been on a campaign to reduce the level of inflation being reported. This, in turn, boosts GDP.

more...

[54anickel]

22. GDP Report Could Spur Talk of Stagflation (but don't let it get to you)

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/rebeccabyrne/10174935.html

Stagflation is a word that might spring to mind on Friday morning after the second-quarter gross domestic product report is released.

Because economic growth is expected to rise a healthy 3.7% in the quarter and the GDP price deflator is projected to increase at a 3% annual pace, talk of stagflation -- a stagnating economy with spiraling inflation -- probably sounds like hyperbole and for the most part, it is. But it's easy to see why the term has crept back into investors' lexicon.

In recent weeks, real economic growth estimates for the second quarter by Wall Street economists have been revised down by 40 basis points, according to Banc of America analyst Tom McManus. At the same time, forecasts for inflation have risen by roughly the same amount, leaving the nominal rate of growth unchanged. (Real GDP is adjusted for price fluctuations while nominal growth is not.)

A similar trend has emerged over the past two quarters, with the rate of real GDP growth slowing as inflation has moved higher. In the first quarter, GDP rose 3.9%, compared with a 4.1% increase in the fourth quarter and 8.2% gain in the third.

Meanwhile, the GDP deflator rose at a 2.9% pace in the first three months of the year, up from a 1.5% pace in the prior quarter. The personal consumption expenditure index, a measure of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve, also has jumped sharply.

"If you average the first two quarters of this year, I think growth will end up being a little bit weaker than was expected going into the year and inflation is definitely higher," said Josh Feinman, chief economist at Deutsche Asset Management. "It's been a while since we've had that combination."

more...

[54anickel]

23. I.R.S. Says Americans' Income Shrank for 2 Consecutive Years

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/29/business/29tax.html

The overall income Americans reported to the government shrank for two consecutive years after the Internet stock market bubble burst in 2000, the first time that has effectively happened since the modern tax system was introduced during World War II, newly disclosed information from the Internal Revenue Service shows.

The total adjusted gross income on tax returns fell 5.1 percent, to just over $6 trillion in 2002, the most recent year for which data is available, from $6.35 trillion in 2000. Because of population growth, average incomes declined even more, by 5.7 percent.

Adjusted for inflation, the income of all Americans fell 9.2 percent from 2000 to 2002, according to the new I.R.S. data.

While the recession that hit the economy in 2001 in the wake of the market plunge was considered relatively mild, the new information shows that its effect on Americans' incomes, particularly those at the upper end of the spectrum, was much more severe. Earlier government economic statistics provided general evidence that incomes suffered in the first years of the decade, but the full impact of the blow and what groups it fell hardest on were not known until the I.R.S. made available on its Web site the detailed information from tax returns.

The unprecedented back-to-back declines in reported incomes was caused primarily by the combination of the big fall in the stock market and the erosion of jobs and wages in well-paying industries in the early years of the decade.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. June help wanted index falls to 38

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BD2BAF45A-FD54-4F18-AFAE-2DA19D24333D%7D&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Help-wanted advertising declined slightly in June, the Conference Board reported Thursday. The board's help wanted index fell to 38 in June from 39 in May. It was at 38 a year ago. The board said help-wanted advertising declined in five of nine regions in the second quarter. "Help-wanted advertising was on a slow upward trend through February but has now been virtually flat over a four-month period," said Ken Goldstein, chief economist at the board. "Consumers seem to believe the economy and the labor market will continue to improve," he said, citing the board's surveys of consumer confidence. "Labor demand will hold up if the economy does."

Jul 29 10:00 AM
Help-Wanted Index Jun
reported 38
briefing.com 40
market 40
last report 39

still waiting for the economy and the labor market to improve :eyes:

[54anickel]

25. Heh-heh, we are on the cusp! Right around the corner! n/t

[Media_Lies_Daily]

29. Oh, but the labor market HAS improved!....

But only in those countries to where our major corporations have outsourced jobs.

[UpInArms]

26. United States Of America : The Fed paints grim economic scenario

http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/NewsDetails.asp?News_id=8402

As per the Commerce Department manufactured goods barely managed to touch 0.7 percent rise last month, while The Federal Reserve survey painted worsening economic scenario across the country for June and early July. The latest signals clearly indicate that the economy was slowing in early summer.

Retail sales, especially for automobiles, weakened over the past two months. But, a big jump in consumer activity in early spring was also visible.

The two latest reports were the latest evidence of what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress last week was a 'soft patch' developing in the economy in June. Greenspan believed the slowdown would be temporary, as hiring could bolster consumer spending in the coming months.

The next couple of months would be crucial in determining whether the current recovery regains altitude or whether the slowdown worsens, say a few economists.

...more...

[54anickel]

30. No, no, no - The Fed was filled with happy speak. Simply a minor

soft spot on the cusp of recovery. It's all good - we don't want rapid growth that will peter out - no boom and bust recovery, just a nice steady as she goes, nearly imperceivable growth. :eyes:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

32. The cost of oil and how fast interest rates will rise are the keys.

[54anickel]

35. Seems the beige book backs the decision for "measured" rate

increases, which is what the Fed wants. Costs are not being passed on to consumers, inflation is benign steady as she goes so as not to hurt the carry-trade.

It will be interesting to see just how high they can take the rates before having to do another about face this time around.:shrug:

[UpInArms]

27. Employment Costs Rise, Wages Subdued

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5813764

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment costs rose as expected in the second quarter, but at a slower rate than at the start of the year, as benefit costs growth slowed and wages remained subdued, a government report showed on Thursday.

The Employment Cost Index, a broad gauge of what employers pay in wages and benefits, climbed 0.9 percent in the second quarter after a rise of 1.1 percent in the first three months of the year, the Labor Department said.

The increase matched expectations on Wall Street.

Wages and salaries rose a slim 0.6 percent for the second quarter in a row. Over the past 12 months, wages are up just 2.5 percent, matching the period through March as the smallest 12-month gain on records dating to 1982.

Sluggish wage growth has become a central issue in the presidential campaign.

...more...

Jul 29 8:30 AM
Employment Cost Index Q2
reported 0.9%
briefing.com 0.9%
market 0.9%
last report 1.1%

[54anickel]

28. Post-Enron, Structured Finance Addiction Hasn't Ebbed

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscfoc/markets/matthewgoldstein/10174866.html

Three years after Enron's off-balance-sheet shenanigans gave structured finance a black eye, the market for mind-numbingly complex financial deals with a habit of closing at the end of the quarter is sizzling.

This week, the parent companies of Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service both reported higher second-quarter earnings and revenue, in large part due to their ratings work on structured-finance transactions.

snip>

The strong growth in the structured finance market is good news for Wall Street firms such as Citigroup (C:NYSE - news - research), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM:NYSE - news - research) and Lehman Brothers (LEH:NYSE - news - research), the main dealers in these complicated financings.

But the growing demand for structured finance is at odds with the public outcry that followed the collapse of Enron, a company that took the shady art of earnings management to an illegal apotheosis. Andy Fastow, Enron's former CFO, was a master at conjuring sham earnings from asset-backed transactions that could smooth out Enron's earnings and help the company meet Wall Street growth targets.

snip>

Whether or not the volume of these deals and their timing indicate anything nefarious, Enron's legacy might be about to catch up with the structured finance market.

Wall Street bankers are up in arms about a set of proposed federal rules that are aimed at putting the kibosh on structured financings that serve no other purpose than to manipulate profit. The new rules proposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission and bank regulators would require financial institutions to vouch for the accuracy of company's accounting, disclosure and tax treatment for a structured finance deal.

Already, banking groups are weighing in with their objections to the new rules, contending that they will increase the cost of structured finance deals and cause companies to shy away from legitimate risk-shifting transactions.

more...

What was that Iron law of economics the nutcase Mogambo mentioned yesterday again?

at the end of booms, and especially at the end of long booms, the whole system is corrupt. The money was so easy, so plentiful, that sooner or later everybody stuck their hand into the cookie jar, and then once they were in that far, it became easier and easier to stick their whole arm in.

[KoKo]

41. hmm...Mogambo says it well in that quote....Unfortunately, his last three

articles have shown his "libertarian leanings" and have kind of turned me off him. He focuses so much on monetary policy that he misses how the Corporations and Lobbyists have abused FDR's New Deal and tried to hinder other programs to help the poor survive against the big business interests gone wild in the last 20 years.

Still, he always has a few great lines that zing and make alot of sense. And, he trashes Bush in this latest rant more than Kerry...although as a Libertarian he probably wouldn't find a suitable candidate that would carry out his anti-government policy views. :D

[54anickel]

44. I like the fact that he has shown his "libertarian leanings". I like

finding some of the common ground that the different political persuasions share. To me, it makes it easier to pinpoint the important (and even sometimes subtle) differences.

On Mogambo's last article, I noticed his change in tone and understanding on the idea of raising the minimum wage. An article or 2 ago he was so adamantly against the idea as his remedy was based on stopping the "insanity" of the over abundance increase in the money supply. This latest article seems to surrender to the idea of increasing the minimum wage as it's the only way to keep up with the monetary policies that continue to induce inflation.

There was the other article I posted yesterday from the NY Post of the interview with a conservative republican. Quite a bit of common ground there as well.

In my own personal discussions with the Repub B-i-Ls, I find it easier to make arguments against Shrubco by starting the discussions with the common ground talking points.

It also helps me to keep an open mind as well as shore up my convictions on what the differences are. But that's just me.

Regarding his not being able to find a suitable candidate - yep, he rips on both sides, but I like that contrary point of view. I don't want to be a blind follower of the Dems (like many of the Repubs tend to be). I think that's one of the greatest assets of the Dem party, and especially DU. Folks seem to be more critical of their own and that, IMHO, is a good thing.

[KoKo]

55. Agree....I've often thought that after Bush's disastrous policies we have

much in common with the Libertarians. Bush has increased the size of government beaurocracy (Homeland Security Agency for one) but the cost doesn't seem to be producing results. This huge debt, personal and private have fiscal conservatives as freaked out as aware Democrats.

Common Ground might be coming as you say and I would be pleased to join with Libertarians or anyone else who will vote with us to get Bush out.

There's going to be so much work to do that we will need all the best minds we have to get through it. Thanks for pointing out Mogambo's subtle change in yesterdays column. I re-read it and you are correct he's compromised a bit from his earlier column where he was ranting that increasing the minimum wage would be a disaster. :think:

[UpInArms]

31. 10:16 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,120.53 +3.46 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,873.54 +15.28 (+0.82%)
S&P 500 1,098.52 +3.10 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.593% +0.008

09:45 ET Indices open even higher than futures indicated, particularly the Nasdaq...preoccupation with oil continues...Brent crude futures are down 47 cents...earnings reports this morning were good...ExxonMobil (XOM 46.04 +0.23), Aetna (AET 81.71 +2.73) and Dow Chemical (DOW 39.90 +0.50) were among the winners...the economic reports this morning (new claims and the employment cost index) were in line with expectations... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

09:11 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Expectations remain intact for a start in the green as the futures indications retain the bulk of their gains... The treasury market, however, remains stuck in its current trading range - slightly lower today after moving higher yesterday.

[54anickel]

33. Hey, where's the DOW going? Took a wrong turn? n/t

[UpInArms]

34. Bay Area charged higher prices for milk

Consumers pay 29% more than U.S. average in study

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/07/29/MNGNT7V0M21.DTL

Getting milked? Apparently so. A gallon of milk costs 29 percent more in the Bay Area than it does, on average, across the country, a consumer group reports.

And, the largest grocery chains in the region continue charging the most, getting about $2 more than mom-and-pop shops for a gallon of milk.

It adds up to a big bill for a common, and sometimes necessary, purchase. "Our survey shows that big grocery supermarkets are gouging consumers and earning huge profits from this important family grocery staple,'' said Elisa Odabashian, senior policy analyst for Consumers Union's West Coast office in San Francisco.

In a report released Wednesday, Consumers Union surveyed milk prices in 83 food stores in San Francisco and in Alameda, Marin and San Mateo counties from June 14 through June 18. It found the average price for a gallon of milk was $4.71, or 29 percent higher than the $3.66 average price reported by the U. S. Department of Agriculture in a survey of 29 major U.S. cities outside California.

<snip>

At the time of the survey, the farm price for a gallon of milk was $1.90, and the California Department of Food and Agriculture estimated that retailers paid an additional $1 per gallon for processing, distribution and store costs, bringing the total cost to $2.90 for retailers. The Consumers Union survey showed that Albertson's charged $5.49 per gallon at most of its locations for its Berkeley Farms brand of whole milk or $2.59 more than cost (an 89 percent profit), while Safeway charged $4.79 for its Lucerne brand of whole milk or $1.89 more than cost (a 65 percent profit).

...more...

[54anickel]

36. Is Saudi Arabia Running Out of Oil?

http://www.thestreet.com/_tsccom/funds/supermodels/10174679.html

snip this from the end of the article, because I think it should be at the beginning! Not to discredit the man and his points, but to be aware of a possible conflict of interest with regards to some of his points - namely the ANWR>

Of course, Simmons has a pony in this race. The more the world needs to build new fields, the more his investment bank can finance. But his views demand attention nonetheless, especially in light of the Saudis' recent lack of forcefulness in adding capacity to push oil prices down today.

snip to beginning>

When oil prices have doubled to $80 and a second Great Depression threatens global political stability, our president will assemble a 9/11-style commission to explain the intelligence and policy failures that led to the crisis. The verdict will be familiar: The stunning blow to the world economy brought about by the sudden, unexpected depletion of fossil fuel should have been anticipated and prevented.

When that day comes -- in five years or perhaps 20, who knows -- many of the key exhibits will have been penned by Matthew Simmons, a Houston energy analyst and banker at Simmons & Co. International.

Simmons is now shouting from the rooftops -- writing think-tank white papers, giving speeches and finishing a book set for publication next year -- that the world is quickly running out of affordable oil and gas, and that no amount of Middle Eastern pumping can bail us out.

While much of the so-called "peak oil" story is well known, what's news is Simmons' startling claim, based on personal analysis, that Saudi Arabia's pumping capacity is in decline.

Aramco, the company in charge of Saudi oil operations, disputes Simmons' assertion and has debated him in public policy forums. But Simmons isn't easily dismissed, as he's no antiestablishment crank. In addition to his role as chief executive of a major energy-focused investment bank, which counts Halliburton (HAL:NYSE - commentary - research) and the World Bank among its clients, he's a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and was an adviser to President Bush's election campaign and Vice President Dick Cheney's infamous energy task force.

A Pervasive, Regressive Tax

more...

[54anickel]

37. ECB Trumps the Fed on Achieving Price Stability

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=aAzKccWtBxSI

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- In any poll of ``best central bank,'' you'd expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to trounce the European Central Bank. Run the numbers associated with price stability, however, and the Frankfurt-based bank comes out on top.

Price stability is desirable because it takes a chunk of uncertainty out of planning, for governments, companies and individuals. It follows that the more successful a central bank is in securing stability, the better the chances for prosperity.

Alan Greenspan's halo -- the creation, admittedly, of financial-market pundits rather than the Fed chairman himself -- has tarnished as economists fret that the U.S. central bank has spoiled the economic porridge. Jean-Claude Trichet, meantime, inherited the presidency of a bank that's gained credibility for resisting the policy-meddling efforts of its political masters.

Three measures of price stability -- inflation, central bank interest rates and bond yields -- show the ECB doing a better job than its Washington counterpart in the past five years in squeezing volatility. Moreover, the ECB's refusal to bow to political coercion earlier this year for a rate reduction means less pressure now to match its peers in the U.S. and U.K. by pushing up borrowing costs as the global economy recovers.

more...

[UpInArms]

38. Has Alan "Goldilocks" Meanspin spoiled his porridge?

We all know how badly he is cooking the books. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

40. I liked the last line of the article- What's the purpose of the Fed again?

Price stability may be a necessary condition of economic prosperity; it isn't sufficient to guarantee growth.

[54anickel]

48. Hmmm, nothing here about guaranteeing growth - yet that seems to

be all Meanspin has concentrated on since he first took the job - creating growth thru sometimes absurd monetary policies. I thought creating growth was the job of "free markets", not Fed intervention.

http://www.stlouisfed.org/education/8fc/FC-policyframework.html

The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 established the Federal Reserve System to provide the United States with a safer, more flexible and stable monetary supply and financial system.

The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 (a.k.a., the Humphrey-Hawkins Act). Other legislation regarding the Federal Reserve includes the Congressional Act directed the Fed "to promote effectively the goals of:

maximum employment,
stable prices and
moderate long-term interest rates.

In passing this Act, Congress declared that it would monitor the Federal Reserve Board's actions. The Federal Reserve chairman was commissioned to testify before Congress each February and July first to the House Banking Committee followed by the Senate Banking Committee several days later.

To allow adequate time for the preparation, the first FOMC meeting of the year and the midyear meeting are two days long rather than one.

During these Congressional testimonies, the chairman:

summarized FOMC's views on current economic conditions and
set target ranges for various economic variables that depicted growth and inflation.

[54anickel]

60. Somewhat related article, a bit gold-buggy though.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schmidt/schmidt072904.html

snip>

The real issue though may be the question of whether or not the recent tendency toward higher prices is being monetized. When prices rise, such as the recent experience with oil, the central bank has two fundamental choices. First, the central bank could let market forces dictate the response. In this case the rate of interest would rise to reflect the higher prices. In the short-term, this action might result in a lower level of economic activity.

That lower level of economic activity should lead to a correction in the sources of rising prices. Demand for goods would fall. The higher prices for goods, oil included, would ultimately fall back down. In this case the natural workings of the markets adjust, and the higher prices are not built into the system. Market can naturally adjust to such forces if allowed to do so.

However, the Federal Reserve does not like to let market forces work naturally. Having made the assumption that the collective wisdom at the Federal Reserve is greater than that of the market, it will not allow markets to react naturally. The Federal Reserve's wisdom is substituted for market wisdom. This mistake of arrogance is commonly made by central banks.

The Federal Reserve's wisdom sets the level of interest rates. Rather than let market interest rates react naturally to supply and demand pressures, it fixes those rates. That action requires the Federal Reserve to supply reserves whenever the market has a tendency to raise rates. This move keeps rates fixed at the prescribed level, but monetizes any price increases. That means it provides enough money to cause the markets to accommodate and accept the higher prices.

snip>

Before going further with this look at monetization of higher prices let us take a quick look at the results of Federal Reserve policy. In our first chart is the year-to-year change in U.S. M-1, the narrowest measure of money. Some obvious observations stand out, and are worthy of mention.

First, stability is apparently not an important consideration in the development of Federal Reserve policy. Little evidence of a stable policy, however defined, can be found in that graph. Monetary instability leads to economic instability. Such is the reason the U.S. economy has experienced a stock market bubble, a housing & mortgage bubble and the likelihood of currency depreciation of a significant magnitude.

Second, the U.S. economy has been supplied with monetary "juice" at an accelerating rate. Monetary policy has been set without consideration of possible adverse consequences, or more dangerously the cumulative negative impact on the U.S. economic system. The impact of higher and higher rates of monetary expansion on stability, both economic and price, has not been a consideration. Generally accepted is that the money supply should not grow faster than the growth rate of the economy's ability to produce goods. Let us accept that. If the money supply grows faster than the growth rate of the economy's ability to produce goods that action is deemed to be inflationary. The reverse is generally also accepted.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Let's Dump The American Empire

Found this article linked at 321gold, not exactly a SMW article but interesting.

http://reese.king-online.com/Reese_20040728/index.php

There is an American Empire, but we should dump it, because we Americans are woefully incompetent when it comes to maintaining empires.

One mistake that seems to be a permanent feature of our foreign policy is mirror-imaging. So many American politicians, most of them poorly educated and ignorant of other people and their cultures, tend to think other people are just like us. A great many are not.

Lyndon Johnson failed in Vietnam because he thought he could treat the Vietnamese the same way he treated members of the U.S. House and Senate. Johnson always used a stick and a carrot. Vote with me, and you'll get pork-barrel rewards; vote against me, and I'll find a way to punish you. That worked with American politicians, most of whom are nothing more than officeholders with "for sale or rent" signs on their foreheads.

snip>

President George W. Bush has offered a $25 million reward for Osama bin Laden. He thought, apparently, that like most Americans, the Afghans and Pakistanis were for sale. Despite Afghanistan being one of the poorest countries in the world, the American millions have not produced a single traitor willing to rat out bin Laden.

Let's face it — we have become a secular and materialistic society. The two kinds of people we have real trouble believing actually exist are people of true religious faith and people to whom honor means more than money.

snip>

We should start bringing our troops home from the far-flung corners of the world, establish a sensible self-defense posture and use the billions of dollars we would save to tackle all the really serious domestic problems we have.

more...

[KoKo]

42. Simply said, but it makes so much sense. To me, anyway...Concentrate

on our own country and bring it back into financial health and repair our infrastructure and educate ourselves and our kids.

Why are we running around the world spending money on Wars, PsyOps and Deceits when we would do better to focus on getting our own house in order. We could do it if we were challenged to.

Maybe when the money runs out for the War Games and Corporate Shenanigans we will be reduced to finding a way to deal with ourselves and rising out of the ashes of our greedy reach around the globe.

Well...maybe Mogambo does have a few more points than I gave him credit for...

Thanks for posting this. In a way it does fit here because all our money is going for Bush's endless wars right now..and Vietnam drained us of money for a long time, while our inner cities rotted away and there was no money for anything. I suspect our "War on Terrorism" will cause the same dark times, but perhaps this time we can truly change direction because the imbalances have become too severe to be ignored any longer.

:shrug:

[54anickel]

49. Thanks KoKo,

It goes back to that seeking common ground thing I posted earlier regarding the Mogambo nutcase.

From a linked article to yesterday's post on facism,

"truth is one of the strongest weapons of those who have no power".

http://atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/FG08Aa01.html

[UpInArms]

43. dollar is not "happy"

Last trade 89.58 Change -0.17 (-0.19%)

Last tick: 2004-07-29 11:19:16 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

45. I'm slow today - What rained on the buck's parade?

[UpInArms]

46. Gold prices inch up; traders eye dollar, economic data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B93724F26-5C6D-4BE2-AE1D-5CAE335DE2BF%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- August gold is up 50 cents at $389.50 an ounce in late morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as investors assessed the latest U.S. economic data and braced for more on Friday. The dollar was mixed, stronger against the yen, but weaker against the euro, clouding the investment demand picture for gold. Mining shares are higher, mirroring climbs in gold, as well as copper, platinum and palladium. The CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) and Amex Gold Bugs Index <: hui> are each up 1.3 percent.

[UpInArms]

47. 70 face layoffs at Dana

http://www.newsenterpriseonline.com/articles/2004/07/29/news/news01.txt

Slower truck sales by Ford could result in layoffs for employees at Dana Corp. beginning as early as next month.

A Dana spokesman said more specific information would be available later, but a United Auto Workers official said Wednesday that as many as 70 employees could be affected as the plant scales back its production of frames for Ford Expeditions and Lincoln Navigators.

"I think because of the high gas prices, that's probably slowed the sales down somewhat on those," said John Wheeler, president of Local 3047 Chapter of the UAW.

The layoffs would be effective Aug. 9 and be based on seniority, Wheeler said. The plant would continue to produce the frames, but will do so using only the first and third shifts. The second shift for the line that produces those particular frames will be phased out, he said.

<snip>

The maximum a person can draw under Kentucky law is $365 per week in unemployment insurance.

<snip>

In the eight and a half years he has worked at Dana, this is the first indefinite layoff Wheeler has seen.

"Normally we stay so busy it's hard for us to keep up with the demand for frames that Ford needs," he said.

With home mortgages and children to raise, laid-off employees could be facing tough times, Wheeler said.

...more...

[54anickel]

50. U.S. stock rise continues; GM limits Dow advance

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040729/180dc91c7c1d9b9a6247d53ae95f241f_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Stocks were climbing midday Thursday encouraged by a slew of positive profit reports and a slip in oil from record highs but blue chip gains were limited by steep losses in General Motors after a couple of downgrades.

Wall Street is hoping put together a string of positive days by building upon Wednesday's late-day surge and a big rally Tuesday to build a base of support after big losses over the past month.

"I'm pretty enthusiastic about the markets here," said Jonathan Murray, senior vice-president of investments at Legg Mason.

Murray noted that earnings have come in 20 percent above last year but and interest rates are still relatively low with price-to-earnings on the market still at 15 times next year's earnings.

Historically, he said, when that happens you can see double-digit growth in the equity markets.

"I think that the ingredients are in place for a good fundamental year-end rally," Murray said.

:eyes:

[54anickel]

51. 12:43 updates

Dow 10,149.65 +32.58 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,882.00 +23.74 (+1.28%)
S&P 500 1,102.04 +6.62 (+0.60%)
10-yr Bond 4.595% +0.010
30-yr Bond 5.316% +0.010
NYSE Volume 731,081,000
Nasdaq Volume 850,133,000

12:30PM: The indices are inching higher in stable action...today's session has not been buffetted by the selling pressures that were common in recent weeks...the S&P 500 index is now up about 15 points for the week...there are very few significant earnings reports after the close today...ChevronTexaco (CVX) is a healine report for tomorrow...NYSE Adv/Dec 2014/1087, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1729/1146
12:00PM: Stocks opened higher and have held on to the bulk of the gains in fairly stable action...the Dow dropped into negative territory twice, but rebounded quickly each time...the primary boost to the market has come from lower oil prices...the September crude contract is down 40 cents to $42.52, on reports that the Russian oil company Yukos will continue to pump despite a dispute with the government...also boosting the market was a collection of good earnings reports...Dow Chemical (DOW 39.88 +0.48), ExxonMobil (XOM 46.03 +0.22), and Aetna (AET 82.43 +3.45) are large cap firms that had good reports...

General Motors (GM 42.69 -1.43), on the other hand, is down on downgrades from Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs...other significant movers include Krispy Kreme Donuts (KKD 16.58 -2.08), which is facing an informal SEC investigation, and Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE 21.01 -4.02) which warned of lower profits this quarter...the much followed SOX semiconductor index is up 2.4%, providing significant support to the Nasdaq...volume is light....NYSE Adv/Dec 1947/1095, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1675/1153

[The_Casual_Observer]

52. As of yesterday CNN business proclaimed "The Bulls are Back!"

Wishful thinking?

[54anickel]

54. Pavlov's dog? Or perhaps Goebbel's "say it ffive times and people will

believe it?

[54anickel]

53. When Greenspan Talks - Fewer People Listen

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/ridley072904.html

Since Greenspan's recent announcement to the world on how wonderful our economy is growing - the dollar has taken another dive and oddly enough, so has gold.

Greenspan, being the master of double-speak that he is, has seemingly divided the market. There are those that actually believe in his fairy tale economic recovery story and a growing number who don't seem to be buying the story any longer despite what the talking heads in the main stream media keep pumping us with.

Now we have seen NASDAQ hit a ten month low slipping to 1,839 despite consumer confidence improving for the fourth month in a row. Another contradiction.

However despite all the economic statistics and bullish talk from Greenspan which may have given the dollar a boost for a day or two, there is one cold hard fact that always gets everyone's attention and that concerns the spiraling debt situation. This is the primary reason gold has taken such a strong run over the past three years and decimated the dollar's value against other major currencies.

Greenspan's historic low interest rate policy along with the flooding of $2 trillion worth of paper dollars annually to the money supply has certainly helped the housing market and retail sales of Asian made goods - but our debt situation is down right scary.

more...

[KoKo]

56. So, if our unemployment rises and wages go down, those outsourced jobs

could return to our shores? And, with weakened environmental regulations due to the Chimp then we could once again attract investment (foreign of course) for increased manufacturing (building plants which will spew our more pollution) interests from China and Japan. After all the Chinese and Japanese must be suffering from terrible air pollution due to their heavy manufacturing and demand from the US. So, they might be happy to unburden themselves from a few of these plants by moving them to the US Third World...

It does make sense in a way....after all we may be so desperate at some point that we would all welcome this. I hope not...but who knows. :shrug: It may be Greenspan's only way out, and we seem to be stuck with the guy for another term.

[54anickel]

57. Scary part is, do you think the US would go down from top dog without

a fight? Historically, major economic changes did not occur in the absense of a major military conflict.

[KoKo]

59. IfIf China and Japan own our country because they've bought our debt,

though,how could we bring a major conflict against them? We don't have money or troops to invade anywhere else and if China and Japan pull the plug we are done for. And how can we start a trade war when we are so dependent on them?

I don't see this as WWII where we could pump the economy with shipbuilding, aerospace, and manufacturing for all the machinery and supplies the troops needed. :shrug: We have closed down all our shipbuilding facilities and I don't think guns and tanks and uniforms could help things given the amount of debt that's out there. I don't know what more war could do to help us since things are so different now from the Great Depression. :crazy:

[54anickel]

61. Good point. I don't know the answers. Perhaps they lie in the reasoning

for this "empire" building and the idea behind corporate facism?

I'm beginning to scare myself these days. I need some happy, happy, joy, joy speak. Perhaps a trip to the lounge is due.

[UpInArms]

58. 2:08 EST update and blather

Dow 10,096.64 -20.43 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,869.15 +10.89 (+0.59%)
S&P 500 1,097.24 +1.82 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.568% -0.017

1:30PM: Market is holding its ground in positive territory with the tech sector leading the way... Aside from the semiconductor industry's outperformance, the software and telecom equipment stocks have also been instrumental in the advance... Today's laggards of note are concentrated in the consumer staples sector, as the weakness in Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE 20.95, -4.08) and Gillette (G 38.35, -2.07) following their June quarter earnings reports is weighing on related companies...

On Tuesday Briefing.com lowered its rating for the Consumer Staples sector to Market Weight from Overweight citing, among other things, the sector's recent underperformance and valuation concerns... SOX +3.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 2214/962, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1947/ 933

1:00PM: Constructive tone continues...the SOX semiconductor index is now up 3.3% and leading the Nasdaq higher...second quarter real GDP data will be released tomorrow morning...expectations are for a 3.7% rate of increase, on top of the 3.9% first quarter growth...the deflator inflation measure is expected to come in at 3.0%, up marginally from 2.9% in the first quarter...soft June economic data held back second quarter GDP growth, and the market will be looking for clues as to the degree to which growth continued into the third quarter...NYSE Adv/Dec 2175/961, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1900/1016

[UpInArms]

62. 2:34 EST and terra has skeered the markets!

Dow 10,086.47 -30.60 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,867.99 +9.73 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,096.56 +1.14 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.573% -0.012

2:30PM: Dow has gone negative for the day in the past half hour with losses in United Technologies (UTX 93.30, -1.40) and General Motors (GM 42.60, -1.52) holding down the blue chip average... The broader market, however, has also weakened with tech stocks losing some steam and the influential banking sector experiencing some selling pressure since the last update... Would also note that the recent downdraft may be related to an Associated Press report that the FBI has warned police in California and New Mexico about possible terrorist activity in their states...

Overall, the major indices are mixed, yet market internals still connote a positive bias...NYSE Adv/Dec 2073/1119, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1659/1325

[54anickel]

63. Tough balancing act. Need terra to boost Shrub, but too much

will scare the markets and put a damper on the "Recovery". Could be an interesting few months ahead.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x715646

[54anickel]

64. 3:23 and party in the pits! Happy, Happy!!!!

Dow 10,155.34 +38.27 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,883.17 +24.91 (+1.34%)
S&P 500 1,103.07 +7.65 (+0.70%)
10-yr Bond 4.575% -0.010
30-yr Bond 5.299% -0.007
NYSE Volume 1,259,771,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,417,621,000

3:00PM: It has been tough to keep the indices down this week, as an oversold condition has piqued some renewed buying interest from sidelined participants... On that note, the indices are working their way back from a bout of selling pressure in the last hour... The blue chip averages continue to trail the action, as they have all day, with weakness in the auto, beverage, and household products groups acting as a major drag... NYSE Adv/Dec 2056/1151, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1705/1309


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2260 (66%) 1906 (60%)
Declines 978 (28%) 1137 (35%)
Unchanged 162 (4%) 125 (3%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 822 (71%) 1063 (78%)
Down Vol* 323 (27%) 283 (20%)
Unch. Vol* 11 (0%) 8 (0%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 50 43
New Lo's 36 72

[54anickel]

65. US buck is climbing as well

Last trade 89.94 Change +0.19 (+0.21%)

Settle 89.75 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.76 Previous Close 89.75

High 90.29 Low 89.57

[54anickel]

66. Ewww, let's see if they can rally in the last minutes on the news of the

high-level AQ capture. Last I looked the DOW was heading in the wrong direction again, down to 8.something, already on it's way back up to 15.

[54anickel]

67. Closing "stuff" (Yawn Z-z-z-z-z-z-z)

Dow 10,129.24 +12.17 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,881.06 +22.80 (+1.23%)
S&P 500 1,100.43 +5.01 (+0.46%)
10-yr Bond 4.575% -0.010
30-yr Bond 5.299% -0.007
NYSE Volume 1,529,932,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,697,487,000


Close Dow +12.17 at 10129.24, S&P +5.01 at 1100.43, Nasdaq +22.80 at 1881.06: It was a bit of a lopsided market today as the blue chip averages took a backseat to the Nasdaq, which was aided by strength in its technology, industrial and transportation components...Credit for the Nasdaq's advance was again attributed to a bounce from oversold conditions ... Fittingly, then, the beaten-down semiconductor sector occupied a leadership spot today along with the software, telecom equipment, and computer issues...
The underperformance of the blue chips can be blamed largely on the consumer staples sector, which took a hit after Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE 20.63, -4.40) disappointed with its Q2 report and guidance; meanwhile, Gillette (G 38.16, -2.26), which topped the consensus EPS estimate by a penny, failed to live up to the market's more bullish expectations... Laggards in the sector included the household products, beverage, food distribution, and personal products groups... Separately, the auto group was another pocket of blue chip weakness after General Motors (GM 42.75, -1.37) got hit with downgrades from both Goldman Sachs and Lehman Bros. that were tied in part to inventory concerns...

Oil prices remained a focal point for the market, only this time they were viewed in a positive light as they took a dip following some clarification on the status of Russian oil company OAO Yukos... Recall that oil prices surged yesterday in the wake of reports that Yukos was ordered to stop oil sales... In fact, Yukos has been barred from selling property, not from producing and selling oil... That news took some wind out of the energy market in the early-going, but by the end of the day, oil prices were little changed as ongoing concerns about supply in the face of increased global demand kept a bid in the market...

Speaking of oil, ExxonMobil (XOM 46.03, +0.22) impressed investors with its Q2 report, as did Dow Chemical (DOW 40.50, +1.10), Aetna (AET 84.25, +5.27), and InfoSpace (INSP 36.57, +8.07) to name a few others... Overall, the earnings news remained solid and served as a source of support for the broader market... Market internals reflected today's bullish bias, but it is worth noting that small- and mid-cap stocks garnered the majority of the buying interest; hence, the encouraging A/D line, but only modest gains for the Dow and S&P 500... Consistent with recent action, the market closed the day with a positive push...DJTA +1.4, Nasdaq 100 +1.1, Russell 2000 +1.6, SOX +2.9, S&P Midcap 400 +1.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 2303/983, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2074/979

3:30PM : Consistent with recent trading, the market is attempting to finish on an upbeat note... Would add that the indices spiked in the last half hour in the wake of a Reuters report that Pakistan has captured a "Most Wanted" al-Qaeda terrorist who is presumed to be Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani... Buying interest, however, has tapered off since the knee-jerk reaction... Separately, key earnings reports tonight, and before the open tomorrow, will include those from KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Ingram Micro (IM), PacifiCare (PHS), Western Digital (WDC) and ChevronTexaco (CVX)...NYSE Adv/Dec 2252/994, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1913/1132

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2325 (67%) 2075 (64%)
Declines 946 (27%) 979 (30%)
Unchanged 164 (4%) 152 (4%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 1072 (70%) 1309 (77%)
Down Vol* 408 (26%) 358 (21%)
Unch. Vol* 48 (3%) 20 (1%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 55 46
New Lo's 39 74


Have a great evening everyone! :hi: