Convention success puts Kerry ahead in polls

[DoYouEverWonder]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1273177,00.html

Julian Borger in Boston
Saturday July 31, 2004

John Kerry opened up a modest lead in the US presidential race yesterday after a four-day Democratic convention in which he cast himself as a cool-headed warrior.

A telephone poll published overnight gave the senator a five-percentage point advantage over President George Bush, but that poll was taken before Mr Kerry's nationally televised speech to his party on Thursday.

Early signs yesterday suggested that the 45-minute speech, which promised "a smarter, more effective war on terror", with more emphasis on diplomacy, had gone down well with its most important target audience - undecided voters.

"These undecided voters came into the convention anti-Bush, but they left pro-Kerry," said Frank Luntz, of the Luntz Research polling organisation, which conducted the survey for MSNBC television.


<snip>

The survey of 1001 likely voters, conducted over the four days of the convention showed the Kerry-Edwards ticket leading the Bush-Cheney one by 48 to 43 percentage points.

[soothsayer]

1. now, will dumbass get a bounce after his lousy convention?

Hope the only bounce he gets is OUT OF OFFICE!

[mom cat]

2. The more people see our guys, the more ther like them.Bush can't

hold a candle to Kerry and Bush and we have the traction now. If * gets a convention boost, it will be too little, too late.

[SquireJons]

14. Probably, but...

It depends on what kind of minstrel show they put on. In 2000, the pugs had a convention that portrayed a spurious political party. There were blacks and hispanics and asians and women, over and over. They presented Powell and Rice front and center... big tent republicans. Remember compassionate conservative?

Well, no one could prove they were lying back then and a lot of people gave them the benefit of doubt, partly because Gore never really had a great national image and he ran a lack luster campaign.

Now the shoe is on the other foot. I think a lot of the middle roaders have had it with boosh and will be inclined to give Kerry a chance, unless he blows it somehow. Even a terrorist attack won't swing things the way of the dark side. It would take a foreign invasion, and I don't think even Rove can produce that.

To answer your question, sure - they get a bounce. But it won't matter. All signs I see point to a disgraced gwb. And probably the whole damn nest of bush vipers as well. Two one term losers is usually enough. My guess is Jebs days in office are numbered as well.

[struggle4progress]

16. "poll .. taken before Mr Kerry's .. speech"!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[MaineDem]

3. "These undecided voters came in ... anti-Bush, but they left pro-Kerry"

Sweet words. Sweet, sweet, sweet!

And all this before his speech!

[John Q. Citizen]

6. Zogby has Kerry up by 2 points....

IN THE SOUTH!

YEE HAW!

Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849




Hope is on the way and it's riding a donkey.

[lancdem]

4. A new Newsweek poll

has Kerry up by 13.

[Beetwasher]

8. Where Is that Poll?

No link yet?

[flordehinojos]

5. The Republican Convention will probably give Bush a bump up in the polls

The one frightful thing about that is that his bump in the polls will be closer to election time, thus, making it more difficult for Kerry to close the gap should one develop.
:eyes:

[napi21]

7. I wouldn't worry about that. Shrub will need a big bump to stay even.

These polls were all taken too soon. Wait for the ones released on Monday & Tuesday, after people have had time to think and talk to friends about their opinions. They will be the more accurate ones.

Also, don't forget about the debates! If shrub can still think & talk by then. I think that's where you're going to see the meaningful polls.

[Beetwasher]

9. Nahhh, It Won't Make Much of A Difference

People have had almost four years to make up their minds about Bush. His amount of support is just about set. The undecideds were just waiting to get to know Kerry. Once they go Kerry, they ain't coming back.

[ItsMyParty]

10. Beetwasher--totally agree

People watched (not enough in my opinion) to Kerry's speech because they didn't know him. The faithful will watch Bush but who else will bother??--really?? They know who he is; they know his speech is always the same and stuttering and boring as usual. America isn't waiting to hear from GWB. His headlines the next day will be more of the "smoking them out" crap and no one will care.

[Beetwasher]

11. LOL!

I just responded to YOU in GD '04 saying I agreed w/ YOUR post there!

Great minds and all that!

You made some additional good points that I didn't even think of regarding their convention competing w/ the Olympics etc...

Welcome to DU!

[Kahuna]

13. One word. DEBATES. That's how he overcomes any * post convention

bounce.

[GaryL]

12. The Chimpster better pray....

that Kerry/Edwards is not at 54%. It'll take more than camping on the carcasses of the 9/11 victims to make up that big of a bounce.

[daleo]

15. Barbara Bush's "beautiful mind" is heading for some sorrow

Two failed one-term presidents, coming up.