A Baby Bounce? (Newsweek on Kerry/Edwards)

[VolcanoJen]

These are the insta-polls, and I agree with CNN's Bill Schneider who warned people not to pay attention to any polls that come out before Monday. Of course, that's probably because his poll comes out on Monday. :-)

Anyhow... the results of this poll have been reported on DU already, but now the in-depth article is online.

There's actually some good stuff in here, if you read the whole article. For a taste, check out the last two paragraphs of this excerpt, which deals with the major issues of the election. Kerry's looking good, if you ask me.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5568072/site/newsweek/

July 31 - Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Three weeks ago, Kerry’s lead was three points.

<snip>

Still, Kerry and Edwards have gained ground on several key election issues. For the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, as many voters strongly back Kerry as strongly back Bush (31 percent to 30 percent). In an election expected to be decided by a small number of unaffiliated voters, independents now lean toward Kerry by a margin of 45 percent to 39 percent, with Nader pulling 7 percent. And voters are becoming more likely to predict a Kerry victory in November: Forty-four percent say Kerry will win vs. 43 percent who predict Bush.

Voters are deadlocked at 46 percent over who they would trust more with handling the situation in Iraq (Bush had enjoyed a 15 point lead in March). They also just barely prefer Bush to Kerry (48 percent to 43 percent) on handling terror and homeland security, issues on which they had preferred the president by 21 points in March. This is significant because the top issues among voters are terrorism (21 percent), the economy (19 percent), Iraq (18 percent) and health care (15 percent).

Kerry gets higher ratings as someone who can be trusted “to make the right decisions during an international crisis” (53 percent Kerry versus 48 percent Bush). Six in 10 voters (58 percent) are dissatisfied with the direction the country is headed and, domestically, more voters believe Bush’s policies have hurt (43 percent) rather than helped (33 percent) the economy. Voters also feel they would far more trust Kerry (55 percent) than Bush (32 percent) with issues pertaining to health care and Medicare.

The best news the Bush campaign gets out of the NEWSWEEK poll is that Kerry’s stance on the gay marriage issue lies outside of the mainstream. Voters choose Bush’s less permissive stance on gay marriage by a wide margin (46 percent to 33 percent) as the position that best reflects their own views. However, this potential wedge issue may be tempered by the fact that voters vastly prefer Kerry’s progressive stance on stem cell research by a margin of 53 percent to 26 percent.

[Zynx]

1. Half the poll was taken before Kerry's speech.

Also, the previous numbers that they are comparing it to were at a high point after Edwards was chosen so we were comparing our selves to a high base.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. I can hear Rush chortling now, "Folks, it's the smallest Dem convention

bounce EVER! I'm telling ya, this one's in the bag!"

Scoreboard: Incumbent trailing, 3 mos. before election

[VolcanoJen]

4. Oh, how I hope he DOES chortle in such a manner!

I love it when the Repubs continue to kid themselves about their guy's chances in November.

From my work experiences, the great advantage we have over Repubs is that they tend to be addicted to Fox News and talk radio, and therefore live within a bubble of phony optimism and confidence. They're just not plugged into the world of varying opinions around them.

Personally, I'd like to keep them in that box. It bodes well for us. :D

[mountebank]

3. From 2-point to 10-point lead: if this is a small bounce....

then Bush is in trouble.....

<snip>

On Thursday, Kerry had a two-point lead over Bush (47 percent to 45 percent in a three-way race with Nader). In Friday night polling, his lead over Bush grew to 10 points (50 percent to 40 percent).

[lancdem]

5. Exactly

We need to see what the polls show that are done after the convention.

[lancdem]

11. And bounces from conventions often

don't start until the nominee speaks, as this shows.

[squidbro]

15. You're right, Bush is in serious trouble

The cast of speakers slated for the RNC is good enough for another couple of points swinging Kerry's way.

[Democat]

6. 7 points is a "baby bounce" - looks the RNC is writing for Newsweek

Fucking right wing media takes their talking points directly from the White House.

[VolcanoJen]

8. This addiction to Conventional Wisdom will bite the media's ass...

... on November 2nd.

They love to tout the "bounces" Michael Dukakis and Al Gore received after their conventions, only to be handed "defeat." That's fine, that's groovy... but it's a new world now.

I just have this itching feeling that they're going to have more egg on their collective faces than November 2000, if they keep relying on these current polls (of currently-registered voters), and if they keep comparing the current, ripe environment in which news matters, and issues are truly affecting Americans, to the days of 2000, 1988, and earlier.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

12. Shrub I/Dukakis, Shrubya/Gore: Not races against an incumbent with

a proven crap record, I mean track record!

Big difference.

[Seabiscuit]

19. This addiction to "conventional wisdom" is the GOP delusion

that will sink its ship on Nov. 2 as Michael Moore has accurately pointed out - the paradigm of using "likely voters" by pollsters has been outdated since 9/11/01 - since "likely voters" are only those who actually voted in past Presidential elections.

During 2000, about 50% of eligible American voters didn't vote.

The magic of the Dean campaign is that it awoke a sleeping giant: a voting block who had never voted before. This block has been growing consistently during the past 18 months, and it is *THIS* block of voters, and NOT some small percent of the so-called "swing voters" which will decide this election.

Given the momentum the Democratic Party has gained in attracting voters who never voted in previous Presidential elections, Kerry/Edwards will win in a landslide.

EXCEPT: That will only happen if *every vote counts*. See the thread about the "rise of the machines" (Diebold, et. al.) - that if not stopped dead in its tracks during the next three months will guarantee that despite a massive and unprecedented turnout in favor of Kerry/Edwards on Nov. 2, Dubya will definitely succeed in stealing the election again, and this time the popular vote along with it.

Beware of feeling overconfident.

[VolcanoJen]

20. Thanks for that.

You said it far better than I could have.

I do hope they stay within the box of Conventional Wisdom. If they do, victory is OURS.

[Raenelle]

17. "Baby bounce" is the only description consistent with their storyline

that the country is either in the thrall of that very popular preznit or ensnarled in Bush-hatred.

[fearnobush]

7. This is but one more example of the GOP media manipulating the data

to whore for Bu$h. If it were a real poll, it would have been conducted after the Kerry speech and not 1/2 before it. Unless Newsweek conducts a full after speech poll, I will indeed consider cancelling my subscription to them.

[VolcanoJen]

9. You know what, though? The proof is in the details of this poll.

Read a little further into the article, and you'll be hard-pressed to find good news for Bush.

For example, look at this paragraph:

...the Democratic Party’s nominee now boasts stronger ratings than the president on being “personally likeable” (67 percent agree with that description of Kerry, 62 percent of the president); on being someone who cares about “someone like you” (57 percent feel this describes Kerry, 44 percent Bush); and on having “strong leadership qualities” (31 percent don’t see these in Kerry whereas 38 percent don’t see them in Bush).

All in all, if this is a GOP hit piece, it failed. Miserably.

[Frances]

10. I think the poll is good news for us

but in a way I'm glad that Newsweek is downplaying it because I want to keep our folks focused and energized

[meti57b]

13. folks have pretty much made up their minds if they want bush and they dont

.

[Jim Sagle]

14. How many of these folks who think Kerry's "outside the mainstream" on gay

marriage actually give enough of a fuck about the issue to have it determine their votes? Not too many outside of w's evangelical base, I'd bet.

[squidbro]

16. People are concerned about issues that actually do matter

Isn't it incredible?

While soldiers and Iraqis die daily, the evangelical crazies are carrying on about Gay marriage.

It's amazing that they can call themselves "Christian".

[VolcanoJen]

18. Precisely.

Bush/Cheney continue to push right, denying the importance of the middle swing vote.

I've always considered Rove to be a worthy, tough opponent. But, I think he's losing his mind of late. Good, and it's about time!!

[DemMother]

21. Great analysis of "baby" bounce by donkey rising

I posted this in general discussion. It's well worth a look.


"Before We Pronounce on the Bounce, Let's Measure It Properly Shall We?

Newsweek is first out of the box with a poll and story on Kerry's bounce from the convention. There's just one slight problem: the data they report in the story don't really measure Kerry's bounce at all.

In short, Newsweek's analysis is totally bogus. Before we pronounce on the bounce, I suggest we wait until we've got some data that actually measures it."

Read more:

http://emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/index.php