Results of Presidential Campaign Polls

[RedEarth]

Results of Presidential Campaign Polls

21 minutes ago

By The Associated Press

Results of recent polls on the presidential race. Listed above each set of results is the name of the 2000 winner in a given state, the organization that conducted the poll, the dates, the number interviewed, whether it was adults, registered voters (RV) or likely voters (LV) and the margin of error (MoE). Results may not total 100 percent because of rounding.




NATIONAL


(Three-way)


Gallup Poll, Aug. 9-11, 729 LV, MoE +/-4


(Results from late July Gallup poll in parentheses)


George W. Bush-Dick Cheney (news - web sites), 48 percent (51)


John Kerry (news - web sites)-John Edwards (news - web sites), 46 percent (45)


Ralph Nader (news - web sites)-Peter Camejo (news - web sites), 3 percent (2)


Unsure, 3 percent (2)


(Two-way)


_Bush-Cheney, 50 percent (51)


_Kerry-Edwards, 47 percent (47)


_Unsure, 3 percent (2)


NEW YORK (Gore won by 25 percentage points in 2000)


(Three-way)


http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&u=ap/presidential_polls_glance&printer=1

[Stuckinthebush]

1. As TruthisAll said yesterday...

The Gallup Poll has consistently been shown to be an outlier.

I have little confidence in Gallup numbers based on their historically inaccurate polling.

[nodictators]

8. Beware the Gallup Poll of "Likely Voters"

Notice that in the Gallup Poll on Yahoo has LV, which stands for "Likely Voters"

I analyzed the "No bounce for Kerry" Gallup Poll of 08/01. In short, Gallup purged about 20% of pollees who were for Kerry, but only 10% of the pollees who were for Bush to get their LV results.

I found their methodology for determining whether a pollee is likely to actually vote to be very subjective. I find it very hard to believe that twice as many pollees who were for Kerry as those who were for Bush would fail to vote in the presidential election. In fact, given Bush's low approval ratings, it would seem that pollees favoring Kerry would be more likely to vote in the election than pollees favoring Bush.

There have been claims that some pollsters are putting a fraud factor into their polls. The allegation is that by purging Kerry pollees, they can lower the poll results for Kerry to match the actual results in a rigged 2004 presidential election.

[AcesFull]

2. OK, I admit it...

I'm a political, market, and wagering junkie and I my luck is running hot.

I like polls, but the simplicity of markets and a single number are very interesting to me. Enter the proposition markets.

Finally, the market I follow has broken for the hero.

http://tinyurl.com/6fups

Kerry has been well ahead of * on the popular vote for a number of weeks.

My Kerry shares are doing very nicely thank you.

Warning. This site can become addictive.

[dennis4868]

3. AcesFull

Welcome to DU! :-)

[AcesFull]

5. Hey thanks!

Already feels like home.

[wicket]

6. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[demnan]

4. Nader must bow out now!!

n/t

[AcesFull]

9. Kerry is in a tough spot on this one.

He has too much class to attack him, but Nader is the only reason that this election is close.

Suppose that Nader were a risk to the right. Do you think for one second that the * machine wouldn't find some kind of bulls&*t "Honest Corvair Drivers" book that claimed that Nader really drove a Corvair and that he secretly profited by it.

[WI_DEM]

7. well one way you can spint the Gallup is

Kerry closed the gap by four points and now it is a statistical deadheat. But we all know that this poll is bull anyway.

[Goldmund]

10. Hey you should get rid of "NEW YORK" at the bottom

Because it's the subtitle to the section that follows, which you didn't include... Had me scared there for a second.

[childslibrarian]

11. Welcome AcesFull

I wrote USA Today this morning about their use of the Gallup Poll which does not jive with any other poll...