( Kerry Wins 53 - 37) Kerry holds edge over Bush following first debate

[ruggerson]

From Gallup. An actual telephone survey.

Kerry wins debate 53-37.

And remember, this is gallup, folks. Heavily stacked Repubican leaning poll!

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-30-debate-poll.htm

[Borgnine]

1. "Holds edge." I love that media whore spin.

That's not an edge... it's a blowout.

[Born Free]

4. "Holds edge." I love that media whore spin."

Give them time, they will convince their viewers they are wrong and the bush coward actually won - we saw this all before.

[sundancekid]

2. even by galling gallup "trends" Kerry wiped the decks with smirky-pissy

Kerry ROCKED my little political world ... yup, I hear at least one great big "halleluja" chorus

[crossroads]

14. I can't wait for the other 2 debates... "Bring em on!"

Kerry kicked ass!!!
:kick:

[truthisfreedom]

3. i feel so relaxed now. Kerry made me feel warm and fuzzy. bush made me

mildly irritated for being forced to listen to his repeat talking points.

bush and rove have made a tragic error this time. rove finally used the "late-night repeat 'oldies t.v.' approach" so often that the repeats of the repeats are making us switch channels in our minds... bush has become boring, and remarkably, Kerry was actually pretty darned interesting to watch. my mind keeps going over points that he made... and every time i think about bush i feel like i'm trapped in an infinite-repeat echo chamber.

[p0sitivevibez]

5. YEAH

Finally, a left wing success. COngrats PRESIDENT JOHN KERRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Common sense and facts really throw a kink into right wing scumbags don't they?

[ogradda]

9. president john kerry

my that sounds good!

[genius]

6. Bush fell apart. He looked as if he were having a mental breakdown

[crossroads]

Noticed how he kept blinking his eyes

everytime he lied! If you know how to read faces, that is a major clue!!! Kerry kicked his ass!!! :dem:
:kick:

[tblue37]

25. Yes, he blinked constantly and rapidly, but

I also saw something else.

Did anyone else notice that at times he seemed to have what looked like a minor seizure, where his head shook in short, rapid, vibrating movements. It was especially noticeable around the eyes, and it only occurred when Kerry was speaking. If you have the debate on tape, watch it again for those moments. My ancient (18 years old) cat had a seizure a couple of months ago, and her face at the time looked exactly like his did several times during the debate: sort of vibrating, combined with a blank stare.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

26. I noticed that, too

And I was mildly disappointed that "The Daily Show" didn't do something on it. But there's always tonight!

I think that any truly undecided voter could not have possibly watched that debate and come away with positive feelings about Bush. By contrast, Kerry looked and sounded like a Commander-in-Chief.

This was a better result than I had hoped for!

[Lerkfish]

39. LOL..."everytime he lied"?? you mean everytime he spoke, right?

:)

[crossroads]

10. Noticed how he kept blinking his eyes

everytime he lied! If you know how to read faces, that is a major clue!!! Kerry kicked his ass!!! :dem:
:kick:

[ignatius 2]

7. Good Christ, holds edge? WTF? I hope that is the same percentage

on 11-2. I don't thik it will be holds edge, more like kicks ass!!!

[demoman123]

8. Unfortunately Bush leads Kerry 54-43% on "who would handle Iraq better?"

This is post-debate. Pre-debate it was 54-40.

There is a similar spread on "who would be a better commander in chief?"

According to this poll, people think Kerry won the debate by a big margin, but they still trust Bush more on the main issue.

But trust grows slowly. Maybe Kerry can pick up a few more points in each of the next two debates, where trustworthiness on other issues may spill over to trustworthiness on the war.

The main enemy is the desire for a familiar authority figure in a time of national crisis.

Now go ahead and flame me and call me a freeper, etc. I am just pointing out some statistics in an admittedly Republican leaning poll, which may nevertheless be some indication of audience response.

[TheDonkey]

11. how did he get such a big lead being down on those points?

Is the economy woes hiting Americans again.

[Erika]

12. Uh, Where did you get your stats from?

[demoman123]

17. LOL. They are in the original article that started this thread.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-30-debate-poll.htm

[crossroads]

13. Ya have a link? n/t

:dem:

[demoman123]

18. Um Hm. Below is a link to the original article, which is my source. :)

All you gotta do is read it.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-30-debate-poll.htm

[sonicx]

16. some parts of the poll are laughable...

In the debate tonight, overall, do you think John Kerry’s criticism of George W. Bush was fair or unfair?
Fair Unfair
63 34


In the debate tonight, overall, do you think George W. Bush’s criticism of John Kerry was fair or unfair?
Fair Unfair
68 28

Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job
Kerry Bush
37 54

please...

[demoman123]

19. Why are these results "laughable"?

People thought both sides were debating fairly, and not hitting below the belt.

They also thought Bush displayed more toughness than Kerry, although most of them thought that Kerry won the debate.

There is no contradiction in this idea, either. Bush may be a moron, but he is a dominant chimpanzee.

[sonicx]

20. more people say Bush was more fair and 'tougher'

that's laughable to me. Bush is a wimp. but then again, i'm bias. ;)

[Child_Of_Isis]

28. Tough?

He looked like he was on the verge of a breakdown most of the time!

[enki23]

22. what it says:

this poll is still heavily republican biased. even they, however, must admit kerry cleaned georgie's clock. this will change over the next couple days, as they circle the wagons. republicans are most comfortable when they can play at being martyrs.

[fearnobush]

21. No, I will not call you a Freeper. We gots lots of work to do.

We must echo the Bush failure on Iraq, Failure on Terror truth. Bush is a failure and if any still believes in the 100 million dollar hype that he aint, then you aint informed.

[demoman123]

23. Well, thanks awfully much for your kindness. I know you are busy....

running Mr. Kerry's campaign. All of us appreciate your efforts. :)

[Whoa_Nelly]

15. Pollkatz Sez

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/#anchor_118
(Click on yellow Gallup box)

<snip>
Quick explanation:



Someone, myDD or Kos, said Gallup sampled 328 Gops, 236 Dems and 189 Inds. If so, then the percentages are 43.55%R, 31.34%D, and 25%I, resp., and Gallup's data must be consistent with:



Bush% = 52% = 43.55*(%Gops for Bush) + 31.34*(%Dems for Bush) + 25*(%Inds for Bush)



Kerry% = 44% = 43.55*(%Gops for Kerry) + 31.34*(%Dems for Kerry) + 25*(%Inds for Kerry)



I generated random numbers (on Excel) to plug in for Gops for Bush, etc., selecting those trials that gave me a Bush% of 51.5% - 52.5% (52% is the result of rounding) and Kerry% 43.5% - 44.5%, and then averaged same to determine Gops for Bush, etc. Several samples of 20,000 trials gave results similar to one decimal point.



My estimates:



Gops for Bush 87.1%

Dems for Bush 8.5%

Inds for Bush 45.6%



Gops for Kerry 8.9%

Dems for Kerry 89.2%

Inds for Kerry 48.4%



Plugging these estimates into Rasmussen's weights yields Kerry 50.1%, Bush 46.0%. Not statistically significant, but a far cry from the 52/44 spread announced by Gallup.

[fujiyama]

24. For some reason

I feel that Kerry's popular vote % will be very similar to what you are predicting. I feel that Bush will get somewhere between 46 and 48%.

[Whoa_Nelly]

34. Wasn't my prediction

My post showed a snip from the pollkatz site.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

27. Interesting Details in there...

Compare the numbers for More Favorable/Less Favorable last night vs. Al Gore in 2000. Bush did significantly worse than Gore.

[w4rma]

29. Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king's horses,
And all the king's men,
Couldn't put Humpty together again.

[Zorra]

30. Anyone that thought that Bu$h did better than Kerry is lying to themself.

This is the trait that best characterizes a republican.

They can lie to themself and believe it.

That is how they can lie to everyone else so easily

[iam]

31. When the handlers stop holding dumbyas hand

and he has to stand on his own, his lack of any talent for anything besides yukking it up with fellow substance abusers become crystal clear. I believe this puts immense pressure on stupid to perform in the next "debate". This idiot does not do pressure well, I think he'll crap his pants the next time up.

[Mother Jones]

32. Question for you....

Every paper, news outlet, etc... is saying the same thing, Kerry took the first round.

No one is happier than I am about that. Cheers to Kerry!

Question though; CNN just reported that France and Germany have stated they will NOT send troops to Iraq. Kerry's Iraq position is that he can get allies onside to assist.
How does this statement reflect on Kerry's plan? I suspect bush's regime will be all over this...

[TankLV]

35. Ummm - bunkerboy is currently in charge - hence no cooperation.

Change in leadership with Kerry - change in cooperation.

It's really rather a simple concept.

They don't like or trust bunkerboy.

They do like and will trust President Kerry.

Bunkerboy can't get squat.

President Kerry will do infinitely better just by not being bunkerboy.

[jackieforthedems]

33. "Blinky" Was Wilted, Kerry Shined

Starting to smell landslide, people?!

[MattPinNC]

36. Lehrer's questions ....

... was it me, or did Lehrer give Kerry softer questions, and maybe even set him up ?? Or am I full of it ??

VVV

[alfredo]

37. Look at how other pundits saw the debate and

you can score the debate too.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/debates/press.pundits/

[tranche]

38. I'm surprised GOP hasn't pushed Kerry's debating experience.

I can easily envision each of the cable news channels changing the topic of discussion from the content of the debate to the fact that Kerry is a champion debater. If they were to do that, Rove Co. could easily change the view of this from what we have now, "B*sh doesn't know sh*t", to, "of course Kerry won, he's a great debater... but osama may still kill you if Kerry is elected president".

I'm still waiting to see that come up at some point...

[Lovida]

40. From Gallup.com

Kerry Wins Debate
John Kerry won the debate Thursday night, 53% to 37%, according to a random sample of 615 registered voters who watched the event. Almost half of the viewers said they felt more favorable about the senator because of the debate, and 60% said Kerry expressed himself more clearly than did President Bush. Despite the positive assessment, viewers said they favored Bush in handling the war in Iraq and serving as commander in chief, little changed from opinions expressed before the debate. And a majority of viewers said it was Bush who better demonstrated he is tough enough for the job.

...sigh.... :shrug: