Democrats fear October surprise

[JoFerret]

http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/wire/sns-ap-october-surprise,0,1971246.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines

WASHINGTON -- In the presidential campaign's closing weeks, Democrats are bracing for an "October Surprise," an event so dramatic it could influence the election's outcome. The capture of Osama bin Laden, for instance.

It's part of American political lore: the party out of power worries about a last-minute surprise engineered by the party in power. Now that October has arrived and the election is just a month away, speculation is rife among Democrats that President Bush and political mastermind Karl Rove have some tricks up their sleeves.

"I assume that it will be something," said House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California. "We have to be ready for that."

With the war in Iraq going badly and people concerned about terrorism, there also seems to be a better than usual chance for a significant event beyond either party's control.

<more.

[neverforget]

1. Considering they'll do anything to stay in power, yeah, I'm concerned

about an October Surprise......or not being allowed to vote at all because of "terraism".

[bluestateguy]

2. Reply

If October surprise is the Osama capture the Democrats had better already have a carefully pre-scripted response. If they even look like they are having sour grapes this will turn into a landslide defeat.

[wurzel]

3. "The Capture of Osama bin Laden" would be a disaster for Republicans.

No one would believe it. It would confirm every suspicion about this Bush Administration.

[Comadreja]

17. That's a mexed missage!

[Tight_rope]

61. LMBAO....that's right...we are reading them like a book!

[crossroads]

67. LOL!!! Good Photo!

:dem:

[Gloria]

4. Kerry has already said that he'd be glad if Osama was "found"--but

Osama is not Al'Qaeda, it's grown into a presence in 60 countries...

What else can he say?

It would be up to surrogates like Clark to blast him with a "what took you so long?" and then answer the question with the stuff about wrong country, etc...

[Melodybe]

7. Correction: Democrats EXPECT an October Surprize.

I hate they use the word fear, to describe us. It pisses me off and is horribly Orwellian.

Don't let them get to you, start saying if Bush steals the the elction, not if he is re-elected.

Don't say when Bush won the first time, they didn't win, they landed a blow.

We didn't really expect them to be this dispicable, and they caught us of guard. We are not afriad of them, we know them backwards and forwards and we have their number.

[Benhurst]

48. ...

:thumbsup:

[MsMagnificent]

51. Did not Rove say they had a surprise coming

right after the 1st debate?
That's what I seem to remember...

[BOSSHOG]

5. BUSH SHOWS UP FOR 2ND AND 3RD DEBATES

That's what the fascists are down to for surprises and that sure isn't anything to fear.

Isn't it quite sad that bush has to rely on liars like limbaugh and his ilk, the faux news channel, swift boat liars and a machine in the white house ginning up surprises to get reselected. A purely pathetic human being in a party of sad self-hating evil bastards.

Chins up, march on teammates.

[proud2BlibKansan]

8. My husband today said

he thinks the October Surprise will be that Bush cancels the remaining debates. He says he will invent a terrorist threat or something like that and claim it won't be safe to hold the debates.

[Comadreja]

18. You callin' me CHICKEN?

[Toots]

42. Can't spell CoWard without a "W"

Love the fighting chicken.... LOL

[Dickie Flatt]

6. Good to see this

Good to see that we're getting the message out about the possibility of an 'October Surprise'. If people expect one, and if they know we were talking about it weeks before it happened, it looks so much more suspicious.

[VegasWolf]

9. I think if they really had Osama they would be pre-hyping it all

over the place, reminding everyone how bad he is,
wanted posters, etc. They may drag in a dead body
attached to a portable dialysis machine, but people
would just ask where al Zarawi is.

My guess is all that will happen is just more mudslinging by the Slow Boat Vets.

[sonicx]

10. The fact that October Surprise stories are popping up in the media...

shows how scandalous the rupukes are. Even the corporate media knows they would try something.

[jackieforthedems]

11. The Only Surprise Will Be

The change in polls from support to Bush to all debates won by Kerry and a landslide in Kerry's favor come November!!!

[dennis4868]

12. "last-minute surprise engineered by the party in power"

WHEN DID A SITTING DEM PREZ EVER ENGINEER A OCTOBER SUPRISE?

[Carolab]

22. GOOD point

October surprise is Repuke tactic, not Dem

[DemFromMem]

13. Osama would backfire

Would anyone believe that his capture was not timed for the election? People are too cynical to believe otherwise. If Osama would have been brought out in August or September the story would be different.

I think there would be a backlash.

[Eloriel]

14. Am political lore, my foot. It's part of REPUGLICAN dirty tricks lore

Starting at least with Reagan/Carter, where GHWB engineered the Iranian hostage crisis to last until Reagan was inaugurated. Here's the story on THAT:

ush's Impending Watergate
By Harvey Wasserman
originally published on May 23, 1991

http://old.valleyadvocate.com/25th/archives/bushs_watergate.html

George Bush should be impeached. Whether he will be impeached depends on the intestinal fortitude of Congress. But the evidence is clearly sufficient to begin proceedings.

The grounds for impeachment rest in the now-familiar circumstances around the 1980 Iranian hostage crisis. The story has circulated since the mid 1980s, but in recent weeks has gained startling new confirmation.

The circumstances are worth repeating: On November 4, 1979, radical Iranian students seized some 55 American citizens and began a crisis that lasted until the moment Ronald Reagan was inaugurated as president 444 days later.

Future historians may well blame President Jimmy Carter for the inception of the crisis. He ignored warnings that it could happen and stumbled badly once it began. Some may also wonder if he exploited the situation to deflect a challenge to his renomination from Sen. Edward Kennedy.

But by October of 1980, one thing was clear: If the hostages were released prior to the election, Carter would be re-elected. If not, Ronald Reagan would win. All major polls -- including one by the primary Republican pollster, Richard Wirthlin -- showed a 10 percent swing on just that issue.

In early October, word spread through the world media that Carter had negotiated a deal for the hostages' release. It was widely believed that he had agreed to unfreeze some $4 billion in assets claimed by the deposed Shah, and to supply spare parts to the American-made arms inherited by the Ayatollah Khomeini's revolutionary regime. The hostages were due home by mid-October, in ample time to assure Carter's re-election.

Then, mysteriously, the deal was off. The hostages weren't coming home after all. What happened?

-- more --

[Swamp Rat]

23. I smell a Bush...

[mumon]

15. Here's a devilish idea ...

Kerry, you know, has links to intel himself & knows BCCI, etc.

October surprises can go both ways, folks.


"Fear" not.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

60. My thoughts exactly...

How much Hasn't been used against Dumbyass in the last 4 years?

It's time to pull out all the stops.

[abelenkpe]

16. republican's don't need an october surprise

they've already rigged the election. Electronic voting will give the presidency to the bush/cheney.

OK, I'm a pessimist.

I just don't see bush/cheney leaving power easily or willingly. I agree that Osama being caught would not be a wise move for the republicans. Nor would it be beneficial to let a terrorist attack occur. Which leaves a rigged election as the best or smartest way to secure power for the republican party. If everone who voted for Gore plus many disgruntled republicans (as many are predicting) voted for Kerry only a rigged election can put bush/cheney back in power. Dontcha think?

[MsMagnificent]

31. a good question would be

How would they control all the different states they wanted to cheat in? Or, because the 2 biggest 'swing' states, Ohio and Florida, do they only need to control those 2?

LOL Not phrased very well, please forgive... it's late & I'm not debating :D

Ohio has lost so many jobs... it's almost incredible that they're wavering so close to Fubya.
Almost

[Philostopher]

34. They're going to have to win Ohio honest from here on out.

They can't ratf*ck us with e-voting machines, very few will be used here.

Ken 'I wanna be governor' Blackwell got called and had to bend over on trying to disqualify new registrations that were printed on old paper due to some obsolete regulation.

If they take Ohio, they'll have to take it the old-fashioned way -- by smearing their opponent and telling as many lies as they can between now and 11/2/04.

Period.

That ain't to say they might not do it, but it's gonna cost 'em!

[MsMagnificent]

35. May God Bless Ohio!

& I ain't talking ole Republican Jesus,
NOR the KKKristian Jesus,

I mean the REAL Lord!!!


But can we swing it without Florida?

[6th Borough]

37. Don't worry. Florida's going Kerry.

(edited for the sake of grammar)

Mark my words.

And Betty Castor is going to hand Mel Martinez his ass by a solid 60-40 margin.

The rest of the country may be viewing at us through a looking glass, darkly; but it's clear as day from where I sit :beer:

[MsMagnificent]

38. I've had this feeling

that Florida WOULD make its voice heard this selection

er, Election!

I do hope you're right, brother 6th -- cheers! :D

[wysiwyg]

47. Florida went electronic

Since Florida is electronic now it'll be interesting to see if the pre-election polls show Kerry winning, even with GOP oversampling, and then swings to Bush in the election results. Supposedly there will be exit polling even if the media doesn't use them to project winners. If the pre-election polling shows Florida for Kerry, the exit polls show Florida voting for Kerry, while the election results in a Bush win will the press just question the polling again?

[sffreeways]

19. Worst case scenario

would be a massive attack on the troops. I think he could wrap himself in the Flag and revenge and people would get behind him again. If an attack happened here he would be toast.

Kerry could hammer him on deverting the nations attention from homeland security to an unnecessary war in Iraq. That's his weak spot. It was very effective in the debate.

But an attack on troops in Iraq with thousands of casualties from a weapon of mass destruction would be his ticket to a second term. He would say he took the fight over there and saved us from the attack here. He'd say there was weapons of mass destruction after all. He'd say he had to lead the military to exact revenge against the attackers and we need to not change leadership.

It would be horrible.

There is no dirt on Kerry that is going to be an Oct. surprise.

A terrorists attack here won't help him it will crush him

Why order the elections suspended if you don't have to? They are too slick to try this. It would throw the world into chaos. It's all about money and the upheaval would cause to much unrest for anyone to make any money. Too messy in my opinion. These lunitics want this to be the Nazi Germany that succeeds. They want total domination and they want it through patriotic fervor here in this country. I just don't believe they would try any of this Marshall Law stuff. I could be completey wrong but this is my opinion after giving it some thought. The nation just wouldn't stand for it. It doesn't fly. He can't say the American people are strong and he's this invincible leader then let the terrorists effect our elections. He can't take this position.

[Rochambeau]

20. As far as this administration is the best ally for OBL and Co

they may try to help their buddy...
I fear a "terra attakkk" more than everything else. But an attack in USA would badly backfire as we all know. On the other hand, a very bloody and chocking attack on american citizens overseas ( a school in Saudi Arabia, a kindergarten in Qatar...) would be ""perfect"" .

EDIT : sorry I haven't read sffreeways's post #19. His scenario is even more scary and "perfect" than mine. And with the help of Allawi(an ex-baathist with lots of connections in some parts of the "rebellion"(the thugs)) it would be very easy to build up.

[sffreeways]

28. You are so right

an attack on someone else is the O.S.. The troops or even a major attack on another country like France.

France has been in a dangerous position since the Iraq war started. With the way this administration has made such an enormous effort to demonize the French I can see how they could use an attack against them two fold. Revenge from Bush for their stand against the Iraq invasion (they should have listened to Bush) and the patsy for his next Reichstag fire.

I can just see him coming to the rescue of France :eyes: He wouldn't, and his rightwing brownshirts would love that. But the attack would scare Americans if it were bad enough and he could say "see it didn't happen here because I am tough on terror and John Kerry thinks like the French do". "He wants French premission to fight terror and look what happened to the French". It's a frighteningly possible scenario

I don't think finding Bin Laden works in his favor. If he catches Bin Laden the boogieman is gone. He's an important boogieman. They've been giving Al-Zawahiri some attention with the last two communications. They would have to create a new threat like a Bin Laden before they got rid of this one. I don't think we are likely to see Bin Laden anytime soon.

A massive attack on the troops by al-Zarqawi would give Bush political capital. Tons of it.

It's sick but it's his best bet.

[Rochambeau]

55. Oh please shut up ! (joke)

[SKKY]

21. My understanding is that Karl Rove...

...has publicly said they have "A couple of surprises for Senator Kerry." So, I'm a bit worried. They've already shown there's no need to be ethical or even honest if they use the right proxy (Swift Boat Vets). This could be very, very ugly.

[TiredTexan]

24. When was an October Surprise arranged by the party

in power? Nixon arranged an October surprise by getting Kissinger to visit the Viet Cong and cancel peace talks. Reagan arranged for the hostages in the Teheran embassy not to be released. In both these instances, Republicans were the trickster, and they played the tricks against a Democrat in office.

More spin from the media.

[SoCalDem]

25. Wrong headline.. S/B... Democrats EXPECT October Surprise

We need to start spreading the word.. Getting the most OUTRAGEOUS scenarios out there, so that they might actually be afarid to actually DO it :)

[AKing]

26. Hopefully Osama is dead,

That way he can't hurt us or help the chimp by his capture. I personally believe he may be dead based on the fact that he hasn't been heard from in a while and that Ayman Al=Zarkawi seems to be the new spokesman.

[nine30]

33. I think you are right.

With 2 failing kidneys from long term opium usage, and no ready medical treatment available, I think he is long gone.

The simian gets no credit for it.

[crossroads]

68. If he has not *already* been captured...

and waiting in a cell to be dusted and displayed on cue in October?
:eyes:

[stepnw1f]

27. There Is No Surprise

Surprise!!! It's called fear...

[GarySeven]

29. We need an ALERT NETWORK

We need to develop a plan to alert DU readers if Bush attempts a military coup to hang on to power.

Those who live near military installations need to maintain 24 hour shifts to monitor unusual traffic at those bases. If you notice an increase in air traffic, such as helicopters being brought in, or if you notice troop movements or rail shipments of tanks, APCs, etc., you should ALERT MEMBERS OF THIS BOARD.

If Bush makes a move, it may be in the middle of the night. We need an ALERT SYSTEM. If those living near military bases see masses of troops spilling out in the middle of the night; trucks taking up positions at major intersections, flyovers of gunships, ALERT US. Even a matter of a few minutes can help some of us get into hiding or places of refuge. Prominent liberal leaders will presumably be abducted or shot in preparation for the coup in order to prevent an organized response.

ALL DU'ERS NEED A PLAN for how to protect your families and children. You should have arms and be ready to organize into militias.

George Bush will DEFINITELY move to shut down national elections now that it is clear he will lose. We MUST be prepared for anything.

[Name removed]

39. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JoFerret]

40. LOL - hide in the bunker now

R/W paranoia is infectious.

[Swamp Rat]

30. I don't fear it. I expect it.

[nine30]

32. October surprise already underway..

They are now doing the only thing left within their power. I suppose the OS (October Surprise) is the huge surprise assault on Samarra with 1000s of US troops participating, in an effort to win back the Sunni Triangle.

If the Military manages to kill even a few militants, or make a tiny bit of headway, it will be touted as a HUGE military victory in the "War against Terror", enough for Bush to deserve to be (re)elected.

I sometimes wonder- consider the same situation that exists in Iraq today, except with the Dems in power and Clinton as president. How would Fox news be covering it, and how would the Republicans be characterizing it ?

[lexicon089]

36. Call me crazy...

Call me crazy but i think the suprise is going to be that there isn't an october suprise

[Sinnerman]

41. October Surprize... You know it's coming.....

Especially with Kerry closing in. Rove has already said to pundits that he has a couple grenades that will come out over next few weeks.
re-pukes like that scare the hell out of me. I personally don't think it's OSAMA, if they got him over next 3 weeks it would be to obvious, I think it's something else.

[cap]

43. Take heart: October surprise will backfire...

the CIA will out any monkey business ...


the CIA is pissed and THEY know how to manipulate elections.


Bring It On! An October surprise will guarantee a Kerry victory.

[Keirsey]

44. Chicago Sun-Times

Surprise! Bin Laden nabbed on election eve


October 3, 2004

BY TOM RAUM

WASHINGTON -- In the presidential campaign's closing weeks, Democrats are bracing for an ''October Surprise,'' an event so dramatic it could influence the election's outcome. The capture of Osama bin Laden, for instance.

snip

As Election Day draws nearer, Bush's options for election-influencing actions are dwindling.

One ''Hail Mary'' pass could be for Vice President Dick Cheney to leave the ticket -- to be replaced by a popular moderate such as former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.

Republican strategists scoff at such talk. But if Bush starts to fall behind, he and his advisers might want to try harder to reach out to moderates. Cheney, who has had four heart attacks, could cite health concerns.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/elect/cst-nws-camp03.html

[hippiechick]

52. I think if Cheney is especially bad in the debate ...

It might happen. He's already a liability ... a pissy debate performance would give them solid proof that the Murkan sheeple don't like Unca Dick, and having successfully raped the country for 4 years, I'm sure he's more than willing to return to private life.

[Tight_rope]

62. This is such old news to us DUer's...repukes better try harder!

[crossroads]

69. Good point!!! n/t

:dem:

[Terran]

45. "October Surprise" loses its power

when everybody (who reads articles like this) knows that such a thing is possible. When the media calls it what it is (which surprises me), then it no longer has the power it once had. I agree with other folks on the thread that is bin Laden suddenly pops up, no one but partisan idiots will believe it's for real. And after all this time, Bush has created a thousand mini-bin Ladens, so who cares all that much about the real one?

[wysiwyg]

46. CNN article missed the most famous October surprise

CNN didn't mention the most famous "October Surprise" of all, even as a "conspiracy theory"; the 1980 holding of the hostages until after the election.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/02/october.surprise.ap/index.html

http://www.consortiumnews.com/archive/xfile.html

[hippiechick]

54. They couldn't mention it ... the BFEE was involved ...

... might lead voters to connect other dots to America's ruling crime family whose Fortunate Son just happens to be squatting at 1600 right now.

[goodboy]

49. kick for the truth...

:kick::kick::kick::kick::kick::kick::kick::kick:

[halfso]

50. Anyone thought about health-related surprises?

What would be the result of Cheney happening to have a heart attack, or the administration/Bush announcing that Cheney would have to go off the ticket for health reasons? This might solidify sympathy from the diehard Repubs (yes, they are capable of the emotion as long as it for their own kind), and open the ticket for a more popular VP like Powell or Rice. The last-minute drama and "uncontrollable/natural" causes of such an event would have to get more attention for them at the expense of Kerry. It's a long shot, and definitely risky for them, but possible. Also, a staged assassination attempt--not necessarily against Bush, but against someone high in his admin--would most likely strengthen the "rally 'round the leader" element. Any thoughts?

[daleo]

58. Or an assassination attempt against Kerry

Maybe more than just an attempt. The BFEE doesn't like to lose.

[Beetwasher]

53. BEAUTIFUL!!! Dems Practicing a Bit Of Pre-Emption!

Love it!

[AlFrankenFan]

56. I am very concerned...October is already a shitty enough month for me...

I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled a stunt like capturing Osama bin Laden. I wouldn't even be surprised if they launched another war, or even ordered a terrorist attack. People who are this desperate to stay in power can't be good. Let's just hope for the best.

[tblue37]

57. "Capturing" OBL would be a dumb move.

Even Tereza has said that could happen in October, which means that if it does, no one will believe it wasn't staged.

BTW, SNL did a great trashing of GWB's debate performance last night, though they also bought into and reinforced the whole "flip-flop" thing about Kerry.

[MADem]

63. They had to

...appear to be skewering both candidates equally. But the Kerry character came across as resolute, distinguishing between flipflopping and 'pandering' in a very forceful fashion. And people who know politics understand those distinctions. And, it was funny. But the Bush character was flat-out hysterical...that whining voice captured the moment, and was DEVASTATING to weecowboy. Kerry even won the SNL debate!

[Paradise]

59. Thanks for posting this!

We've got to keep talking about expecting it, for obvious reasons.

[n2mark]

64. Gosh

This makes me think the Dems. are sitting in a corner with fear waiting for someone to beat them up. This may be the Oct. surprise placing fear. Isn't this what the Shrub adm. has been doing the last few years?

The Dems. just need to pitch the gloves and go at it!

Quit bracing Dems, just fight and take those gloves off!

[n2mark]

65. October Surprise?

Karen and Rove will play mind games with Shrub,he will appear as a confident and well versed Resident. They've turned him into a robot while Karen and Rove with the voice of Shrub will answer the questions.

Chimp does not want to be resident in charge, but Rove does.

[jasongleed]

66. Osama in the news again

His face has been popping up everywhere as a gentle reminder that he's still out there. The capture of Osama Bin Laden is the most logical tactic for the Bush Regime to pull out of their pocket at the last minute.