Kerry takes 8 point lead in NJ in post debate poll

[Jersey Devil]

The Record is northeastern NJ's largest newspaper serving an area with a population in excess of one million.

A poll conducted Friday by The Record showed John Kerry with an eight-point lead over President Bush in New Jersey, despite other polls in recent weeks indicating a virtual deadlock in the race for the state's 15 electoral votes.

Of the 502 likely voters polled in the Garden State, 50 percent said they were planning to vote for the Democratic senator from Massachusetts, and 42 percent said they would vote to reelect Bush, a Republican. Six percent remained undecided, while 2 percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader.

The poll was taken the day after the first debate between Bush and Kerry, which was watched by more than 80 percent of those polled by The Record. Nearly half of those who saw the debate said Kerry won, and 34 percent said Bush won.

"There are two bottom lines," said Del Ali, whose firm, Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., conducted the poll on behalf of The Record. "New Jersey is a Kerry state, No. 1. And, No. 2, Kerry did very well in the debate. Bush did not do very well."

http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkyNSZmZ2JlbDdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5NjU5Mzc4MSZ5cmlyeTdmNzE3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTI=

[skylarmae]

1. Oh yeah, one swing state at a time too - I'm sick of those

electorial vote count numbers showing georgie porgie over 300...

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. As I was told by insiders...

In the Anne Wolfe campaign, Kerry had never relinquished the lead in NJ. It was all some very deft gamesmanship on the part of The Star-Ledger and a few others to muddy the waters.

Quite frankly, the Star-Ledger has become a dissapointment. It seems to have become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Paul Mulshine's brain.

[Jersey Devil]

3. To be fair, Quinnipiac had it tied also

I am active politically but never put much stock in the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, which I believe was the one used by the Star Ledger. I have always found Quinnipiac to be much more accurate and when it showed a dead heat I started to worry.

But talking to people since the debate I have found that even Republican friends were embarrassed by Bush's performance and they now predict he will lose.

[MsMagnificent]

12. It was heartening to hear

2 Bush supporters, while calling up CSPAN to voice their views after the debate, to refer to JK as

PRESIDENT KERRY!

[Doosh]

4. surveyusa showed nj voters believed kerry won the debate 52-29

so this was bound to happen, Kerry has pretty much taken NJ off the table, if it was ever on the table to begin with.

[Nancy Waterman]

5. What we are seeing

is that seeing Kerry effectively demolishes the Bush propaganda machine's image of Kerry that has been keeping him down. The world has hardly seen him since the convention. The more visibilityhe has, the better he does. The shift began with the Iraq speech a week or more ago and got catapaulted with the debate.

[Frances]

6. You are right

In the next election, the 2 parties should hold their conventions one week apart so that one party does not have the same kind of financial advantage that the Republicans had this year. Remember the Repubs had the whole month of August where they could spend their own money and Kerry could not. Then the Repubs had their convention on Labor Day which is when undecideds start paying attention.

I am so glad Kerry did well in this debate!

[JI7]

7. i'm thinking it was all the attacks on Kerry for being weak

remember a lot of people affected by the terrorist acts on 9/11 came from new jersey so they probably had the terrorism issue more in mind. and all the attacks on kerry being weak probably got to them. but when they saw the debates they saw that the attacks did not conform to reality. kerry was not just better than bush, he was very strong and commanding himself.

[Infomaniac]

8. I think you're dead on...

My dear husband works in Jersey - we live in NYC - and the water cooler talk after the repuke convention was about Guiliani supporting Bush. In Jersey, Guiliani, given his performance after 9/11, is a more popular figure than Bush. In fact, most voters in these parts know two things about Guiliani. One, he was a comforting and commanding presence in the days after 9/11 and two, he called a press conference to talk about his mistress and plans to divorce his wife. Most people give Guiliani a thumbs up on the first one and a WTF on the second. In general, people know even less about Bush or Kerry. The debate clarified it for everybody. At a company lunch on Friday, one of my husband's colleagues said, "Better vote for the man and not the moron." There was pretty wide-spread agreement at the table and these are corporate drones. My husband was astounded.

[Arugula Latte]

9. Wow. That's great.

I am really surprised that the debate really did seem to turn things around. I was so skeptical of the press I was thinking that, no matter what, the "Bush Won" spin would win out. But he was so patently putrid that not even the media whores could save his ass this time.

[Philostopher]

13. Too many people watched for them to get by with it.

Most of the electorate watched, so they couldn't play it off or spin it -- most of the problems Bush* had were really obvious. There would have been no possible way to spin it that Bush* did anything but stutter and equivocate -- it was an aural and visual disaster for him.

I say this because the first Nixon/Kennedy debate apparently inspired broadly differing responses from those who watched it on television or just listened to it on the radio. Those who watched it felt Kennedy clearly won; those who listened on the radio and didn't see it felt Nixon had come off quite well. In that case, it was 'all in the English,' and Kennedy had 'English' that Nixon didn't. Bush* didn't have no 'English' no how Thursday night, nobody could really spin that, especially since so many people saw it with their own eyes.

[Nexus7]

15. I listened on the radio and...

... it sounded like a complete and unmitigated disaster for *. The stuttering, repetition, whining, all came across clearly in that medium. In fact, in the absense of any visual distractions, his evading questions, sounding like a stuck record were glaring. Those watching also saw *s smirks and pouts, and of course the esteemed opinions of the chattering class. But in the end, it was a disaster, wherever you observed it, and however you spin it.

[progressivebydesign]

11. I was mentioning the "water cooler" ripple the other day..

..The full effect of Kerry's performance won't be known until it has worked its way thru the water cooler circuit. That is where people are their most candid, and the real talking points are born.

[cyr330]

10. New Jersey voters are no fools

I knew they'd come around, and I don't doubt that they'll vote Kerry on election day.

[friesianrider]

14. Thank God I was wondering what was up with you all in Jersey!

I'm in PA and had always thought of Jersey as a solidly blue state. I couldn't believe these recent polls with K and B tied. All Kerry has to do is keep hammering and making Bush sweat - if he humiliates him any more times in a debate, I hope that'll seal the deal. Already Dems seem much more energized...

[alfredo]

16. If this is any indication, the trend nationwide

is very good.

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm