Oil: The real threat to national security

[RedEarth]

Oct. 4, 2004 | As the presidential campaign draws to a close, the two major candidates are sparring over many aspects of American foreign policy -- notably Iraq, the war on terrorism, and America's fraying ties with other major powers. But there is one critical topic that both are refusing to confront frankly: America's growing dependence on imported petroleum.

Rising oil dependency has many serious consequences for the United States. To begin with, it entails a mammoth transfer of national wealth to foreign oil producers: nearly $200 billion per year at current prices. These transfers represent the single largest contribution to our staggering balance-of-payments deficit and are steadily eroding the value of the dollar. Growing dependency also compels us to coddle foreign oil potentates like the royal family of Saudi Arabia -- some of whose members made lavish donations to Islamic charities linked to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida. Worst of all, our dependence renders us highly vulnerable to oil shocks caused by turmoil and conflict in the major producing areas abroad.

These are not new concerns. The United States has been exposed to the fallout of rising oil dependency for some time. But the severity of the problem has become more pronounced over the past few years. As the United States has deepened its reliance on imported petroleum, the center of gravity of world oil production has shifted inexorably from established producers in the industrialized world to emerging suppliers in the Middle East, Africa, and the Andean region of Latin America -- war zones all. The further we look into the future, therefore, the greater the risk of international oil crises.

Given the high stakes involved, oil dependency should be among the top issues discussed in the campaign. Both major candidates should be offering detailed plans for reducing our reliance on imports and developing alternative sources of energy. And, to be fair, both have made token statements in this direction: Sen. Kerry has called for greater spending on petroleum alternatives, while President Bush has touted his plan to promote energy "independence" by drilling in Alaska and other protected wilderness areas. But neither candidate has been willing to face the fact that American dependence on imported oil will continue to grow unless we adopt far more ambitious plans of conservation and changes in technology.

http://www.salon.com/tech/feature/2004/10/04/oil_dependency/print.html

[mhr]

1. Peak Oil - The Real Achilles Heel Of The West, Particularly The US

www.dallasforkerry.com/mediascope/brainzone/

[Inland]

2. Did you see NYT sunday--article on oil reserves

Noted that while most of today's oil production comes from nonOpec, those sources are going to run out first. The big reserves are all in the Gulf and Arab states--so the US, Russia and Norway are going to run out and are future is mortgaged to the Gulf.

[mhr]

5. That's The Problem, Most Of The Large Producers Are Already

Past Their Peak In Production!

Since the discovery of new oil peaked in the 70s, petroleum geologists do not expect to find any more very large deposits of oil.

Why, because they have already been found.

[BootinUp]

3. We need to hurry up with that antimatter shit

:D

See earlier post today.

[Gregorian]

4. Oil addicts.

There IS no stopping. Blood will flow, and poles will melt before people change. People are addicted. But what they're addicted to is high density energy. It's not just the clowns in their cars. That's only a third of the problem. And that's the part that can be fixed. But it's the other part- the shipping and manufacturing that I don't see a way out of. If you want my prediction, I'd say we are headed for more drilling, and nuclear.
If you only knew how much this has affected my life. The total hypocracy of it all. Shit, they ought to have a zero tolerance or three strikes policy for using energy, not to jail pot smokers. What a joke. All of our attention is on Clinton's penis, or same sex marriage. Rome melts, and we never saw the elephant in the living room. Just remember, people would rather fight than switch. We need education. But what corporate country would ever teach their people to consume less? But when we know what happens when we flick a switch on, or buy certain items that are not created locally, we think twice.
Get on a bike. Think before that Ebay mouse click. I flinched hard this week as I sold a trumpet to a man in Germany. There's much more going on than most people know. Trucks and planes and oil.
This is why I like Kerry. He actually brings this issue up in his speeches. Let's hope his hands aren't tied when he gets in office.

[MatrixEscape]

6. Peak Oil -- long!

Oil and our total dependency is going to be an big issue for the foreseeable future. If you do even a little research, you will see just how shortsightedness, (or stubbornness by the powerful oil Conglomerates) has brought us very close to a very serious crisis that could have been avoidable.

The baby is going to have to wean itself of the black milk of fossil fuel and I am certain that civilization will change drastically over the next thirty to forty years because of this.

America, for instance has spent TRILLIONS of dollars on war and weapons. To get an idea of a trillion, imagine spending $25,000 dollars a day. It would take you 40,000,000 days or about 110,000 years to spend a trillion dollars. It amazes me.

It does not take much to imagine that, with the will and determination, we could solve any problem and make the world a much, much better place if we did not waste our investment on blowing things up. In other words, this would be a non-problem if it were taken on early and financed well.

Some of the points I have encountered on this:

Oil IS our modern life. With the population numbers we have now, petroleum is the blood of post-industrial civilization -- life as we know it. Blood in the way that the body weakens or dies without it. I am often surprised that people tend to think of oil as gasoline and transportation. You can honestly define modern agriculture as turning oil into food. A large percentage of everything around you right now is made from a petroleum by-product.

Due to the massive amount of oil we use for transportation, energy, food, and thousands of materials for everything from television sets, to cars, to clothing, there is no complete, viable solution on the horizon that would replace oil. Too many people are living in a “leave it to the scientists, they will find an answer” myth. Oh, they might, but time has probably run out. We are talking a wide-scale, systematic issue with an expensive tab.

Hydrogen is more like a battery than a fuel source. You can get it from natural gas, but you can also generate it via electrolysis from water – it requires electricity. Fuel cells are a far more officiant way to store and transfer energy, but they still require a source.

While we may see, out of desperation, a move to compact, safer scalable forms of nuclear energy production, (China is considering this) even the fuel for that is not currently a “renewable” resource. It also presents some very long-term disposal problems.

No matter how we solve, (if we can) a growing, Global energy demand and a diminishing petroleum supply, the problem of materials and agriculture still exists. That will require massive changes in farming, industry, etc. over the coming years. Transitioning from plastics, synthetics, and chemicals that rely on oil is going to be a tremendous problem in the short-term.

When you see that there are three, separate factors: Electricity generation, combustion/transportation, and materials, (chemicals/synthetics) then the big picture becomes clearer. There is major trouble ahead.

Am I a doomer about this? Well, you refer back to the trillions of dollars for offense/defense spent, you can see that one could have great hope if that kind of money were invested NOW in order to research like hell, and re-tool almost everything over time. Civilization, as we know it, could be saved, even improved on and made far more officiant and green!

So long as nothing is done in the near future, then it's Road Warrior and then, maybe Thunderdome, for us and our children and so on. This all rides on the backs of the Corporate Elite and the Political Oligarchy that is setting the priorities for our collective financial and human resources.

The problem is now clear and looming. The beast has reared its head and people are starting to see it emerge and cast a dark shadow on Humanity. If nothing is done, then as the population increases and third-world countries attempt to emulate the degree of modernity and quality of life in the West, a crisis point will instigate one of many, impending resource wars. There certainly will be a great die-off of people on this planet in numbers too great to think about.

My point is, it does not have to be! I am no great pundit of technology and I see it brings evils to our door along with its solutions and rewards. However, the same technology that creates stealth planes/boats/subs/drones and better ways to kill people en masse, could be used to the benefit of the living and for generations to come. This is not an option, it is very crucial.

I can hope and dream, can't I? I can imagine that awarness will call these issues out and somehow, someway, the resources will be better directed in this new millennium.

[Moderator]

7. Feature article

not LBN - moving to Editorials and Other Articles. It wills tay longer there!