ABC/WaPo: Kerry Gaining but Bush Still in Lead; LV Bush 51% Kerry 46%

[tritsofme]

Oct. 4, 2004— Sen. John Kerry's personal popularity forged into positive territory after the first presidential debate, according to a new ABC News poll. Numbers show that enthusiasm for his candidacy rose and concerns about Iraq — the debate's chief focus — advanced as an election issue.

Vote preferences are essentially unchanged, with President Bush maintaining a lead in this first ABC News tracking poll of the 2004 election — in the horse race, and on top issues and attributes alike. But enthusiasm for Bush lost ground, and Kerry, by improving his basic acceptability, clearly has revived what recently was a struggling effort.

Post-debate evaluations went Kerry's way: Likely voters by more than a 2-1 margin, 52 percent to 23 percent, say he won the debate, compared with a more modest 45 percent to 36 percent win among debate watchers in an ABC News poll Thursday night.
<snip>
http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_gaining_poll_041004.html

[Steelangel]

1. for some reason..

I don't believe that poll. They must call the area where high numbers of mindless republicans are in.

It is safe to say that Kerry is actually leading in the polls but again, polls is polls.. it means nothing on Nov 2 anyway.

[movonne]

2. In the last couple of days saw polls saying that Kerry lead by 1%

to 2% WHAT GIVES????

[lancdem]

7. The polls were all over the place before the debate, too

At least now there are polls showing Kerry ahead when that wasn't the case before.

[Kikosexy2]

3. More...

polling b.s. but need not worry as John Edwards will beat the crap out of slimey scumball tricky Dicky tomorrow night and boost the Kerry/Edwards even more than ever! I'm sure JE has his ammunition loaded and ready to bombard tricky Dicky like it was Falloujah.

[Jacobin]

4. WaPo is a likkkudnick tool paper

They whored for this invasion like there was no tomorrow. They want to use america's blood and treasure for their own agenda, and they don't want anyone in the WH mucking up their plans.

Flame away. I don't give a rats ass

[dumpster_baby]

9. why would anyone flame you--you are absolutely right

All the major print media outlets are pro-israeli. THey have always been in favor of any war they can get in the Mideast.

[lancdem]

5. The horse race numbers will come around

EVERY poll conducted since the debate shows Kerry making great strides and regaining momentum. That's very important. Even the Kerry campaign siad they didn't expect much immediate change in the horse-race numbers, so the polls already showing him making gains there are a pleasant surprise.

[shockingelk]

10. it started in the two weeks ago ...

A clear trend towards Blue territory: http://fearofclowns.com/text/net_difference_poll_results/

If Kerry keeps up the trend, all polls will be in Kerry territory - add 2-3% for Kerry due to flawed methodologies and good Dem voter turnout, and he's in like flinn!

[agingdem]

6. I don't get it...

Bush is exposed for the incompetent one-note idiot that he is and the ABC poll shows a Bush lead...riiight! This is why polls have become like Muzak...annoying when too loud but generally ignored background noise.

[Stew225]

8. Asshole Bastard Creeps. I had to edit

asshole because I misspelled it. Geez, my old age is causing me to misspell cuss words.My dad is probably rolling over in his grave.

[daleo]

11. I bet these polls are heavily skewed towards Republicans

It will be the old "likely voter" dodge.

"This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 1-3 among a random national sample of 1,807 adults, including 1,470 registered voters and 1,169 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa."

They didn't give the "likely voter" breakdown by affiliation (bells go off). But, as you can see, they whittled the original sample down from 1807 to 1169 to get this result. Plenty of scope for manipulation there.

[bluestateguy]

12. Well now we know how the people in rural Tennessee feel

:eyes:

[Zynx]

13. We're tied among independents. We are not down.

Vote Preference by Groups
Group Bush Kerry
Men 55% 43%
Women 49 48
Married Women 58 38
Single Women 35 62
Independents 47 47
Terrorism Voters 84 15
Iraq Voters 44 55
Economy Voters 29 68
Veterans 65 33


They sampled more Republicans.

[sonicx]

14. YUP

this is the same crap with every other poll.

the race is tied.

[VegasWolf]

15. ANOTHER poll of "unLIKELY VOTERS"!!! I wonder how many

repukes per Democrat this algorithm uses.
By now it has to be at least 4-1 to be consistent
with other polls.

New Information Shows Bush Indecisive, Paranoid, Delusional

[MattBaggins]

16. I'm getting pissed...

manipulated or not what the hell is wrong with our country? How the hell can any one but the most hardcore Limbaugh/Savage idiots be supporting this stupid douche bag after he made such an ass of himself last week? He clearly has no plan whatsoever for Iraq, and is in no way a better choice for CIC. Are our fellow americans really that f'ing stupid? Have we really become that dumbed down?

[montana500]

17. means not a thing

This poll means nothing. Zogby's just came up and the number are excellent. This is the pollster to watch. His battleground polls should be out tomorrow as well.


"Pollster John Zogby: "The close race got even closer. There is some evidence that Kerry’s debate performance and increased clarity on the war has helped him consolidate at least some of the support that he has lost. But undecideds are up to 8 percent and there is still a month to go. There is also no doubt that Ralph Nader is hurting Kerry. The post convention bounce for Bush is over and his biggest hurdle is among undecided voters who give him a 31 percent positive job performance rating and a 69 percent negative rating. Only 13 percent of undecided voters feel that the president deserves re-election (his lowest yet) while 37 percent feel it is time for someone new.

Undecideds at 8 percent are high because we don’t push them until later. Five points of these are hard undecideds, two-points use to be with Kerry, and one point with Bush. How will they break in the end? Will they even vote?"


Great news. It's a tie race with 8% undecided. Of that 8%, 69% give bush a negative rating, and only 13% feel he deserves re-election.

Any tie is a Kerry victory nationally. The big question is the BG states.