STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 5 October

[ozymandius]

Tuesday October 5, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 107
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 28
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 298 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 352 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 565
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1048
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 4, 2004

Dow... 10,216.54 +23.89 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq... 1,952.40 +10.20 (+0.53%)
S&P 500... 1,135.17 +3.67 (+0.32%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.17% -0.02 (-0.43%)
Gold future... 415.60 -5.50 (-1.32%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.35 Change -0.03 (-0.03%)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6409331

The Dollar Rallies Broadly

The dollar rallied broadly on Monday after a statement by the Group of Seven richest nations late Friday brought no surprises, allowing some optimism about U.S. economic prospects to bolster the currency.

Attention was shifting to the big U.S. data event of the week, Friday's release of September's non-farm payrolls report, for a signal on the state of the labor market, one key indicator of the strength of the U.S. economy.

With a chorus of Federal Reserve officials speaking this week, traders were also looking to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan -- who is slated to speak on Tuesday and Thursday -- for his latest views on the economy and any clues on monetary policy.

In a statement after a regular meeting, the G7 countries reiterated a call for more "flexibility" in the exchange rates of major economies, which many analysts saw as a reference to China, whose yuan currency is pegged to the dollar.

However, it made no direct reference to China, relieving dollar bulls who had feared a strong G7 position on China could cause Asian currencies to appreciate against the dollar.

Yet some traders were skeptical that the dollar's rally would sustain enough momentum to lift the currency out of its summer trading ranges.

Many analysts saw the dollar's relief rally as fleeting.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6409622

U.S. Treasury Debt Narrowly Mixed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt was narrowly mixed on Monday as investors proved reluctant to make any major bets ahead of key events this week including a speech from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and the crucial September jobs report.

Underlying a four-day sell-off in bonds that lifted benchmark yields a quarter-percentage point were worries that better economic performance could allow the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates for some time to come.

But technical issues were also at work, traders said, and as benchmark yields marched past a chart barrier of 4.21 percent, the selling momentum seemed to wane.

Analysts said investors were unlikely to make any sharp moves ahead of Friday's employment report for September, which as always could drastically alter the outlook for growth and monetary policy going forward.

"We've experienced a significant decline in the market over the past number of days and I don't think people are going to be willing to commit to buy it ahead of the payrolls report," said Mary Ann Hurley, vice president of fixed-income trading at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Seattle, Washington.

Also on tap is a speech from Fed chief Greenspan on Tuesday, and while he is not expected to address the economy directly, any commentary that even remotely touches upon the outlook for interest rates is likely to garner much attention.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6409705

U.S. Treasury near debt ceiling limit

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department will hit its legally authorized ceiling for borrowing early this month and will urge Congress to raise it, a Treasury spokesman said on Monday.

But with every indication that the question of debt is embroiled with rapidly approaching presidential elections -- in which the Bush administration's handling of the economy is an issue -- there was little chance that lawmakers would jump to lift the limit.

"The time-frame is October, early October. We'll obviously notify Congress at the appropriate time," Assistant Treasury Secretary Rob Nichols told reporters.

"Right before we hit it, we will notify Congress. That forecast is made on a day-to-day basis," Nichols added.

As of Friday, the government was within about $20 billion of hitting the debt ceiling that is set at $7.384 trillion.

The government borrows by issuing U.S. Treasury securities that effectively are IOUs backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

<snip>

"Our debt has been growing markedly faster than our economy's ability to repay it, thanks in large measure to tax cuts proposed and enacted into law by the administration and congressional Republicans," the three Democrats said.

"That letter is under review and we will respond soon," Nichols said, but added that "we have been calling on Congress to act for months." Treasury Secretary Snow is crisscrossing the country ahead of the election to claim credit for the Bush administration's tax cuts as having provided the "oxygen" to get the economy growing after a brief 2001 recession.

...more...

Only one report due today:

Oct 05 10:00 AM
ISM Services Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 61.0
market anticipates 59.0
last report 58.2
revised -

Will we have some "surprised" economists?

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[ozymandius]

7. This must be why gold and bonds took a hit.

Gold took a hit over a rising dollar and bonds took a hit over an approaching debt ceiling. Yes?


Off to get the wrapup...

[54anickel]

12. Gold-bugs are gonna have a field day with that debt ceiling article

snip>

Nichols said Treasury could avoid piercing the debt ceiling, an action that would effectively amount to a default on America's ability to manage its debts, until about mid-November through extraordinary measures such as tapping a Treasury fund that normally is intended for purposes like currency stabilization.

In the past that has been the gold, the fuel for all the hedging by the gold producers that kept the price of gold down - according to the gold-bugs

snip>

Treasury has used accounting maneuvers in the past to raise money outside the debt limit and would do so again if necessary.

HA! business as usual in the USofA!!! And folks wonder why creative accounting has become nearly the norm in today's corporations. Sheesh, the gubbermint does it! They probably offer friggen seminars on the subject.

[UpInArms]

2. Eastman Kodak Restructures Plants Overseas

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/9840346.htm?1c

ROCHESTER, N.Y. - Eastman Kodak Co., the world's largest maker of photographic film, said Tuesday it will restructure manufacturing plants in Britain and France as part of the company's three-year program to reduce worldwide employment by 12,000 to 15,000 and cut total facilities square footage by one-third.

Kodak cited declining demand for traditional photographic products as digital photography becomes increasingly popular.

The company will make changes at sites in Harrow and Annesley, Britain, and Chalon, France. The Harrow plant will continue to produce color photographic paper, and will become the headquarters for operations in Britain. About 300 support staff and business unit positions will be transferred to the site from other locations.

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. Dorman: Mum's The Word On AT&T Layoffs

http://www.forbes.com/associatedpress/feeds/ap/2004/10/04/ap1574988.html

AT&T Corp. Chief Executive David Dorman has canceled an appearance this week at a major Wall Street conference, a sign he is not yet ready to quantify thousands of new job cuts and billions in lost asset value expected with the company's pullback from the consumer telephone business.

The company declined to comment Monday on the reason for Dorman's decision not to make his presentation at the annual Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference.

AT&T's stock jumped 61 cents to $14.97, up 4 percent, on the New York Stock Exchange amid speculation the appearance was canceled because the company may again be entertaining takeover bids which Dorman would be unable to discuss.

<snip>

Some analysts have estimated the writedown could total more than $10 billion. At the end of June, AT&T's assets totaled $43.8 billion, including $22.8 billion in property plant and equipment and $4.8 billion worth of goodwill, which reflects the premium AT&T paid above market value for acquisitions.

...more...

[ozymandius]

11. A friend works for AT&T.

His department personnel, one that oversees the storage and distribution of Internet-related hardware, has been decimated. He now faces either a move to New Jersey sometime early next year or a certain layoff.

He manages inventory at a warehouse, one of the few remaining in the country as the company has been moving toward greater consolidation of resources.

[UpInArms]

4. Maytag plans more layoffs

http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2004/10/05/build/business/54-maytag.inc

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa - Less than a week after approving a new three-year contract, union workers at Maytag Corp.'s Amana Refrigeration Products plant in Middle Amana face possible layoffs.

"It's an adjustment in production schedules driven by seasonality," Maytag spokeswoman Lynne Dragomier said Wednesday.

Dragomier said Maytag is offering workers the opportunity to sign up for voluntary layoffs, hoping to reduce or eliminate the need for any forced layoffs. The voluntary layoffs are allowed by provisions of the company's new three-year contract.

Taking a voluntary layoff allows workers who want the time off for personal needs to take it rather than following a formula based strictly on seniority, Dragomier said.

Many companies build up large inventory backlogs in anticipation of possible strikes when a contract is expiring. Dragomier said that was not a factor in the current round of layoffs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. USAir to cut salaries, numbers of managers

$45 million reduction in pay, benefits; 10% of jobs

http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bal-bz.usair05oct05,1,361042.story?coll=bal-business-headlines

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

ARLINGTON, Va. - US Airways Group Inc. announced plans yesterday to cut $45 million a year in pay and benefits to about 3,700 management employees, a move the airline hopes will persuade its union employees to collectively accept $950 million in annual cost cuts.

An airline source who briefed reporters yesterday on condition of anonymity said the plan will include cutting its managerial force by 10 percent and shedding at least $45 million of their $201 million collective payroll.

The airline's 10 most senior officers will receive a 10 percent pay cut and a 25 percent cut to retirement benefits. Vice presidents and managing directors will take a 7.5 percent pay cut, and other management employees face a 5 percent pay cut. The retirement plan is being cut for all management workers.

The source acknowledged that, proportionately, management workers are facing less severe cuts than the airline is seeking from its union workers.

<snip>

Also, on Thursday the airline will ask a bankruptcy judge to impose temporary pay cuts of 23 percent on all union workers, along with cuts to retirement plans. It is unclear how the announced management cuts will affect union workers' willingness to accept pay cuts. So far, the company has been unable to reach deals with any of its major unions.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Oil production in U.S. tumbles to 54-year low

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0410050243oct05,1,7215545.story?coll=chi-business-hed

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

U.S. oil production plunged to a 54-year low after Hurricane Ivan slashed through the Gulf of Mexico two weeks ago, sinking rigs, buckling pipelines and triggering underwater mudslides that sheared the legs off platforms.

The Energy Department said Monday that production from onshore and offshore wells in the U.S. dropped to 5 million barrels a day during the week ended Sept. 24, the lowest since April 1950.

The decline spurred a 17 percent surge in oil prices in three weeks. Friday, oil closed above $50 a barrel for the first time, settling at $50.12 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but Monday it fell 21 cents, to close at $49.91.

"It's shocking how much oil and natural gas production has been shut," said Joseph Dancy, who manages the LSGI Technology Fund in Duncanville, Texas. "The damage has been much worse than anyone expected. Key points will be offline for quite a while."

<snip>

The U.S. is the world's biggest oil consumer, accounting for a fourth of global demand, and the third-biggest producer, behind Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to the International Energy Agency. The gap between its output and needs is growing.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Corporate Tax Bill Faces Opposition

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-4535039,00.html

WASHINGTON (AP) - House and Senate negotiators hope to wrap up work on a major rewrite of corporate tax law that would end a nasty trade dispute with Europe while showering more than $130 billion in tax breaks on a wide variety of businesses from ethanol producers to movie makers.

But first they must resolve a battle over regulating tobacco products.

The 41-member House-Senate conference committee that is trying to resolve differences between the two chambers prepared to deal on Tuesday with a long list of amendments in an effort to get a final bill finished and ready for passage in both the House and Senate before expected adjournment Friday.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas, R-Calif., prepared a 600-plus page draft the conference committee was using as the basis for debate for amendments being offered by Senate and House negotiators.

<snip>

With an eye toward the Nov. 2 election, the measure has been loaded up with a wide array of tax breaks for farmers, fishermen, film makers and a wide array of U.S. businesses. Makers of ethanol, the gasoline additive produced from corn, would get tax incentives to boost production.

The major element of the bill would repeal a $5 billion annual subsidy hundreds of American companies get which has been ruled an illegal export subsidy by the World Trade Organization.

Until Congress repeals this export subsidy, more than 1,600 exports to Europe are being hit by a 12 percent penalty tariff that has been rising by 1 percentage point each month that Congress delays repealing the outlawed subsidy.

<snip>

However, the definition of manufacturing has been broadened to include not just traditional factories but also construction, engineering and architectural firms and even movie makers.

...more...

What really astounds me is that republicans (or whatever they are) despise the UN - a world body that is fairly transparent - and favor these trade organizations that are so opaque that one never knows which corporate greedmeister is running the show - and then argue about words like "global test" which merely means "reality".

[ozymandius]

9. WrapUp by Jim Willie - BATTLE ROYAL OVER BONDS

A titanic battle is underway with US Treasurys. On the bond bull side is the gradually faltering US Economy, which spurs purchase of TBonds and TNotes to bring about lower interest rates. On the bond bear side is an incredible explosion in federal deficits and trade gaps, which is further aggravated by rising prices system-wide. The chart of the 10-yr Treasury Note yield, tracked by the TNX chart, is highly revealing. It displays the battle royal underway. Is there inflation out there, or deflation? Is the Fed’s Reflation initiative succeeding to lift wages, reduce debts, or failing? Is secular deflation tightening its grip, or is the rise in commodity prices seeing a “cost push” work its way throughout the economy?

Secular deflation is still the beast in the east, as Asian production floods our nation to keep a lid on product prices, and as the growing outsourcing of jobs keeps a lid on wages. Debts are growing while wages are not keeping pace. Prices are surely on the rise, but mainly in the cost side of the equation, not the income side. Monetary growth is monumental, from both the federal budget province and the mortgage arena. We clearly have both inflationary influences at work against deflationary trends. The collection of economists in our land sound as befuddled as the outcomes of their policies are twisted wreckage in a sequence of busts. Central bank intervention to support the USDollar, and to prevent its rapid decline, is played out with US Treasurys as the primary vehicle.

-cut-

THE BOND CHART REVEALS THE CONFLICT

The TNX chart shows the progress of the battle being waged. Interest rates come down with periods of sluggish economic news of various strains. Interest rates fell in the autumn 2003 following the Qatar G-7 meeting of finance ministers. The March 2004 sudden upward reversal occurred when the wholly false economic recovery reports hit the airwaves, to garner much attention about an exaggerated recovery. My view is they were politically motivated, by a combination of Wall Street and Administration urging. Central banks intervene to prevent higher rates, which are extremely justified when federal budget deficits are absurdly out of control, and supply of USTBonds floods the entire world. World financial analysis has been turned on its ear by central bank interference. They have corrupted the entire bond price working mechanism, in a fierce attempt to defend an indefensible monetary system.

-cut-

Two conclusions can be made. First, volatility is on the rise with quickening slopes. The bond rally appears to have ended. Second, with a more long-term view, a reversal toward much higher rates appears underway. Evidence is the larger upchannel in black stretching over the past 24 months. Asians are getting restless and frustrated with their US trade partners. In fact, one could say the Asian community is getting uncomfortable with the US Welfare nation they have allowed themselves to support and become dependent upon. They control the outcome of the bond conflict much much much more than the US press & media tells us. Such is the consequence of losing our manufacturing base, and running up large debts held by foreigners. Credit masters are in control, and will continue to be. Understanding Asia is to correctly grasp big changes that lie over the horizon, a primary focus of my attention.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

10. Crude probes record territory above $50

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD72AC1A4%2DE6F9%2D41D3%2D880A%2D9CA1F79F0C6E%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil futures were back at all-time highs above the $50-a-barrel level on Tuesday.

In electronic trading, crude for November delivery climbed as high as $50.62 a barrel, eclipsing the previous mark of $50.47 set a week ago.

The benchmark contract stood lately at $50.61, up 70 cents, or 1.4 percent.

In Monday's trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude ended the regular session down 21 cents at $49.91 a barrel.

Traders played off developments out of Nigeria, the world's seventh-largest exporter of oil, on Monday. Fighting in the African country's oil-rich delta region ended after militia leader Moujahid Dokubo-Asari said he had reached a tentative agreement with the government to disarm, according to the Associated Press.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Crude futures climbs near $51 in early NY trade

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38265.4197916667-822588646&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures rallied toward $51 a barrel in early New York trading, with the November crude contract up 89 cents at $50.80. "Crude-oil futures were pushed to new all-time highs on concerns that 484,000 barrels per day of production from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remains shut in , and doubts that last week's peace accord between Nigeria and rebel groups in the Niger Delta would hold," according to Tim Evans, a senior analyst at IFR Energy Services.

[54anickel]

40. Will Oil Prices Peak at $50?

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041004-mon.html#anchor1

We are boosting our oil price assumptions significantly. We now assume Brent crude will peak at $50/bbl in October, about $10 higher than the peak in our last update in July (West Texas Intermediate, a lighter, “sweeter” crude, may peak $3-4 higher). To be sure, markets are still taut, and further supply shocks could temporarily push prices even higher. But a $50 price for crude and roughly parallel increases for product quotes will begin to curb demand as it taxes global consumers, and is already spurring some US refinery de-bottlenecking. And just as the near-term price-insensitivity of demand contributed to rapid price hikes, so too does it offer the likelihood of rapid declines when demand growth slows. Consequently, we now expect that prices from that higher level will decline more sharply over the next year to what we think of as the midpoint of a $30-$40/bbl equilibrium range. Even so, we expect that the average level of crude prices in 2005 will be nearly $4 higher than we thought just two months ago.

We’ve thought for some time that oil prices would stay higher for longer than the consensus. Now, the consensus has caught up, recognizing that continued strong demand — especially from China — and a thin cushion of excess production and refining capacity has pushed up the long-term equilibrium price of Brent crude to a $30-40/bbl range. This is significantly higher than it was generally assumed a few years ago and still assumed by most oil companies. We believe that the structure of the crude oil market has changed in the last two years and is now propitious to structurally higher prices. We observe that the market share of the main “swing producer”, i.e. Saudi Arabia and its close neighbors, has rapidly increased, from 18% in 2002 to probably 23% today, a level not seen since 1974. As our “modified Hotelling rule” suggests, the price of crude oil is likely to rise faster than its long-term trend when the market share of the swing producer is increasing (see “Should we be scared of OPEC”, Eric Chaney, May 7, 2002). The reason is that, because it is ready to cut production if demand weakens, the swing producer is able to keep prices elevated, all the more so if its initial market share is higher.

On a shorter term basis, the supply factor, as often in the past, is the main culprit in the recent price surge. Hurricane-induced reductions in supply and threats of supply disruption in Nigeria have lately pushed prices past $50. In our view, that level of prices isn’t sustainable: Either these supply reductions will recede or demand will fade under the weight of reduced discretionary income or both. In addition, some product relief is on the way; refiners are slowly adapting some US facilities to crack more plentiful high-sulfur crude, which will begin to undermine the $5 or so premium for the light sweet crude that is in short supply.

But prices likely will remain elevated for a while: Damage from the US hurricanes that has reduced oil output in the Gulf of Mexico by about half a million barrels per day or one-third of the total there. According to the Minerals Management Service (MMS), natural gas shut-ins remained at 2.3 Bcf per day as of midweek, and some speculate that it could take up to 2 months to restore gas production in the Gulf of Mexico to its former levels. Despite ample gas in storage, courtesy of a cool summer, those fears are keeping a floor under both gas and oil prices. And use of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has so far been too limited to depress crude prices.

Moreover, the underlying growth of energy demand is still outstripping that of capacity....

more...

[UpInArms]

72. Crude futures close above $51 for the first time ever

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={462AB814-7CB4-4CCA-84B2-4E8927B9DDC2}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures closed above $51 a barrel for the first time ever on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November crude rose $1.18 to close at $51.09 a barrel, eclipsing the previous closing record of $50.12 seen on Friday. Lingering production delays in the Gulf of Mexico, tension in Nigeria, and uncertainty ahead of Wednesday's U.S. petroleum supply updates fueled the rally.

[54anickel]

13. Factory Orders Drop Despite Expectations

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041004/economy_16.html

Factory Orders Are Down for the First Time in 4 Months, With Demand Falling for Commercial Planes


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Orders placed with U.S. factories fell for the first time in four months, the Commerce Department said Monday, with demand dropping sharply for commercial airplanes and parts.

snip>

Economists had expected an August increase of about 0.3 percent.

"Overall, the headline number is a little weaker than expected, but the report as a whole is still indicative of solid factory conditions," said Steve Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, in Greenwich, Conn.

Orders for durable goods -- costly manufactured items expected to last at least three years -- fell by 0.3 percent. That was better than a previous estimate of a 0.5 percent drop.

The outlook for manufacturing brightened when orders for transportation equipment were excluded from the data, with demand for non-transportation goods rising by 1.3 percent. That marked the biggest increase since March.

more...

[54anickel]

14. Ha! An interesting pdf article of charts

INEVITABLE REBALANCING OF THE U.S. ECONOMY OR MAKING LEMONADE OUT OF LEMONS
http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/pc100104.pdf

The last 2 pages will make you snicker! :evilgrin: This is the text from one "slide".

HOUSEHOLD WEALTH WOULD DECLINE, PUTTING A
CRIMP IN CONSUMER SPENDING

THE RIPPLE EFFECT OF WEAKER CONSUMER
SPENDING WOULD INCREASE UNEMPLOYMENT

INCREASED UNEMPLOYMENT WOULD LEAD TO
MORTGAGE DEFAULTS

MORTGAGE DEFAULTS WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER
DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON REAL ESTATE VALUES

MORTGAGE LENDERS, INCLUDING BANKS, COULD
SUFFER SIGNIFICANT LOSSES

[Trojan]

19. Friday's Job Creation Number

Here we go...Perhaps Bush's group last chance to cook the books. In July the number was widely predicted at 228,000 to 240,000. It came in at 32,000 and the Euro took off 150 ticks in 5 minutes (Forex)

August was estimated at 150,000 new jobs created and it came in at 144,000. This Friday the calls are about 150,000 again. Anything below 100,000 would be BAD NEWS for Bush and his Cabal...

Will they play with the number this last time ?

What do we think the number will be ?

My guess... 125,000 But ??? who knows with the election in the balance and a debate scheduled for Friday night.

[54anickel]

22. Will they play with the number this time?

Did you catch this post by UIA from yesterday?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x882369#882432

Yeah, I'm betting they'll play with the numbers AND release adjustments to the prior numbers as well. Just all a part of the October report.

[UpInArms]

45. is Mankiw prepping the markets for bad news?

12:16pm 10/05/04 MANKIW: HURRICANES HAVE CUT MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT IN PAST

12:15pm 10/05/04 MANKIW SAYS HURRICANES LIKELY TO IMPACT OCT. JOB DATA

12:14pm 10/05/04 WHITE HOUSE'S MANKIW : JOB MEMO WAS 'INTERNAL GUESS'

12:14pm 10/05/04 WHITE HOUSE'S MANKIW : JOB MEMO WAS 'INTERNAL GUESS'

[54anickel]

49. Sure looks that way. What's that "internal guess" all about? n/t

[UpInArms]

56. White House aides see upward revision to jobs data-WSJ

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6412008

NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - White House economists expect that this week's revisions to nonfarm payrolls data, the last released before the Nov. 2 presidential elections, may show substantial labour market gains for the March 2003 to March 2004 period, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

The newspaper cited a memo by U.S. President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers as stating that revised data for March 2003-March 2004 could be revised upward by 288,000 jobs, and as much as 384,000.

The data will accompany September's payroll employment numbers.

The White House estimate, prepared by career CEA technical staff, has no effect on what the independent Bureau of Labor Statistics will actually report on Friday, the article said.

The Journal quoted CEA spokesman Phillip Swagel as saying the CEA estimates were "very preliminary", adding they were generated by an economic model with a typical statistical error range of +/- 140,000 jobs.

...more...

+/- 140,000 is a huge margin of error

[54anickel]

59. Looks like we need to brace for the spin on Friday. You don't happen to

have the yr on yr stat for March 03-04 do you? Was March that unrealistically good month, or did that come later?

[UpInArms]

60. will have to look for the period of 3/03 through 6/03

[54anickel]

61. That answers the main part of my question. March WAS the month

with the sudden HUGE increase. Now onto trying to find the rest of the data.

[KoKo]

63. Wouldn't Florida start to show up as a huge impact in the numbers? We

sure don't hear much about Florida lately do we. I've had to search for anything financial and there's not much. The unemployment numbers from there must be really bad plus the hit to the insurance companies which never expected anything like this! But...so quiet...cricket chirping.

OOPS: Job Creation Numbers not Unemployment....read wrong...sorry.:eyes:

[UpInArms]

67. okay - here we go

March 2003

Total payroll employment declined by 108,000 in March. Employment continued to decline in manufacturing, retail trade, and transportation. Government employment also fell over the month.


April 2003

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 48,000 in April to 130.3 million, seasonally adjusted. This followed 2 months of job losses totaling 477,000 (as revised).


May 2003

New classifications of payroll employment

Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-17,000) in May at 130.1 million. There were job gains in temporary help services and construction, while losses continued in manufacturing.


Several major changes affected the establishment survey data, including the conversion from the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

June 2003

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-30,000) in June at 130.0 million. Over the month, job declines continued in manufacturing, but were partially offset by gains in construction and some service-providing industries.


July 2003

Total nonfarm payroll employment in July was 129.9 million, down 44,000 over the month. The number of jobs has declined by 486,000 since January. Over the month, manufacturing and transportation shed jobs, but these losses were partially offset by gains in administrative services, notably in temporary help.


August 2003

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 93,000 in August, and
the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 6.1 percent, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported
today. Job losses continued in manufacturing, information, and other
sectors, while health care and construction added jobs.
(no accompanying chart)

September 2003

Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (+57,000) in
September at 129.9 million. Over the month, manufacturing job losses
continued, although at a slower pace. Professional and business services added jobs, as temporary help employment increased for the fifth consecutive month. (See table B-1.)

October 2003

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 126,000 in October to 130.1 million, seasonally adjusted. This followed increases totaling 160,000 in August and September (as revised). During the February-July period, payroll employment had decreased by an average of 85,000 per month. (See table B-1.)

November 2003

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 57,000 in November to 130.2 million, seasonally adjusted. Payroll employment has increased by 328,000 since July. In recent months, job losses have lessened in manufacturing, and employment has trended up in construction and several services industries. (See table B-1.)

December 2003

Total nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged (+1,000) in December, at 130.1 million, seasonally adjusted. Employment continued to rise in the temporary help, construction, and health care industries. Retail trade and manufacturing lost jobs over the month. (See table B-1.)

January 2004

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 112,000 in January to 130.2 million, seasonally adjusted. Since August, payroll employment has grown by 366,000. Retail trade and construction added jobs in January on a seasonally adjusted basis. Manufacturing job losses continued, but at the slower pace that has prevailed in recent months. Employment in temporary help services edged lower, following 8 months of gains. (See table B-1.)

February 2004

Nonfarm employment was little changed (+21,000) in February, and the
unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment levels in most of the major industries were little changed over the month.

March 2004

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 308,000 in March, and the
unemployment rate was about unchanged at 5.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll job growth was fairly widespread, as construction employment rose sharply and several major service-providing industries also added jobs.

[54anickel]

73. Hey you gotta admit that digging up those old numbers makes

150K sound pretty damned good! Will be interesting to see what kind of spin they give on Friday.

Sad to read the narratives, nearly each one points to losses in mfg, gains in temp and service-providing.

[ozymandius]

75. This tells me that they (the statisticians) can make

the numbers say whatever they want them to say. There is always that proviso of "seasonally adjusted" figures. Just how figures are seasonally adjusted represents the blurry area.

Aren't these the same statisticians who wanted to re-classify burger flipping as a manufacturing job?

EDIT: Just my little ol' opinion of course.

[54anickel]

79. With one heck of a margin for error!!! ;-)

[ozymandius]

80. HA HA! Ain't it the truth!

MoE = +-45%

[54anickel]

15. Retail food prices up 4% in quarter

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5015924.html

With bacon leading the way, retail prices for food rose 4 percent in the third quarter of 2004, according to a "marketbasket survey" by the American Farm Bureau Federation.

While many meat prices are up, bread prices are down, most likely due to lowered demand as consumers continue to follow low-carbohydrate diets, a Farm Bureau economist said.

The informal survey of 16 basic food items in August showed an increase of $1.53 to $40.38 from the second quarter of this year, Farm Bureau said Monday. That average paid by volunteer shoppers for the 16 grocery items is $3.92 higher than a year earlier.

snip>

"Consumers are almost insatiable in their demand for pork products as they seek out alternatives to higher priced beef cuts. This in turn drives up the price of popular pork products such as bacon and chops."

The next biggest rise was in russet potatoes, up 36 cents per 5-pound bag to $2.06. Sirloin tip roast and whole fryers each rose 21 cents per pound, to $3.74 and $1.28 respectively. Center-cut pork chops rose 9 cents per pound to $3.43.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures market has faded a bit with the open of the cash market approaching.... Oil near $51/bbl (now +$0.80 at $50.80) is acting as a deterrent for buyers... participants also waiting on the ISM Services report at 10 ET and a speech on banking from Fed Chairman Greenspan at 10:30 ET

8:58AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5.

8:36AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Buyers and sellers are lacking conviction in the futures market.. Accordingly, the cash market is poised to start the session on a relatively flat note

8:11AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Not a great deal of enthusiasm in the futures market, yet trading activity suggests the cash market should do no worse than start the day on a relatively flat note... Keeping things in check is the recognition that the indices were unable to sustain stronger gains yesterday, that Alan Greenspan is scheduled to speak about banking at 10:30 ET, earnings warnings from PHM and AMD, and oil prices nearing $51/bbl

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's breakout above September's high crossing at 1446.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rebound off August's low, a test of the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1476.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1422.75 would temper the bullish outlook in the market. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 4.00 pts. at 1468 as of 5:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's breakout above September's high crossing at 1132.30. If last week's rally continues, a test of June's high crossing at 1146.50 is possible later this fall. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[mhr]

17. Rumor Central - AT&T Cuts To Top 30,000

AT&T has announced 15,000 job cuts between last week and this week.

However, conversations with employees suggest that the true working number internally is 30,000 before years end.

The Bush economy rolls on!

[54anickel]

18. Companies are bracing for slump in earnings

http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/business/9839403.htm

snip>

Arguably, stocks have spent a good part of this year adjusting to the prospect of slower earnings growth, which helps explain the mediocre stock gains. The stock market now is very close to unchanged for the year -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 2.5 percent for the year and the S&P 500 is up 1.8 percent. No one is expecting a rerun of last year's 25 percent gain. But whether the year is rescued by a last-minute rally, or sinks instead into a fresh slump, could depend on whether the avalanche of coming earnings news is seen as positive or negative.

snip>

One widespread view is that stocks got ahead of themselves early this year, when the economy was booming and profits were soaring. Investors have spent most of this year calming down and adjusting to the idea of profit growth in single digits. That is the growth rate analysts are projecting for the first half of next year. "We expect that this economic recovery will be a moderate one but a sustainable one," says John Waterman, chief investment officer at Rittenhouse Asset Management in Radnor, Pa., an arm of financial-services group Nuveen Investments. That means slower stock gains, he adds. "If you can do 7 percent to 10 percent a year in each of the next three years, I think that is about the best you should expect."

Now, the thinking goes, with the Olympics and the political conventions over, investors are less worried about terrorism. And with the November presidential election looming, they are starting to look past that event as well, helping remove some of the noneconomic uncertainty that had hung over stocks. Meanwhile, companies have been issuing warnings about disappointing quarterly profits to come -- more such warnings last month than at any time since the middle of last year.

The onslaught of earnings warnings knocked stocks down at the end of last month. But it also knocked down expectations, lowering the bar that companies have to jump in order to please investors. On top of that, October historically has been a month when stocks have begun a rally, as investors build their hopes for the year to come. The most common expectation, therefore, is for at least a short-term rally carrying into December or the new year.

[KoKo]

31. Why do I suspect this is a Repug talking point? Because on CNBC this

a.m. I heard a "Research Analyst" from Cantor-Fitzgerald saying that the market should be good whether Bush or Kerry win because there's been an increased worry over terrorists threats up to the election. :eyes: He also said he expects Oil to stablize at 45.00 a barrell and so the road ahead is good for the market.

Not one word was mentioned about debt, job loss, interest rates for mortgages, foreign ownership of treasuries...nothing.

It was all Oil and decreased warnings of "terror threats." The rest he said was pretty much word for word what the article you posted said in his talking points.

Do they hold meetings in the middle of the night to get everyone together on the same talking points or is it just "e-mail blaster" that causes what appears to be "group think?" :crazy: The Repug "media machine" is a wonder to behold...stretching into every corner of our lives to spin and lie.

[54anickel]

43. They've all been assimilated

[UpInArms]

44. pod people everywhere

you look

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1096966467-9e32d306-13823

excerpt:

"In general Fed speakers are giving little hint of an imminent pause in the tightening cycle," said HBOS currency analysts Steve Pearson

With several more Fed officials due to speak this week, he said it is likely "a uniform message will be communicated to the market"

US equities have been rising lately, which has also given a boost to the dollar, but solid corporate earnings and economic data will have to continue in order to convince the market that the US economic recovery is well underway, he said

[54anickel]

50. Heh-heh, gotta stay on message! n/t

[54anickel]

51. HA! Here's a good one. Talk about delusional!!!

WHY FANNIE MAE'S BOSS WANTS JOHN KERRY TO WIN

http://www.nypost.com/business/31299.htm

October 5, 2004 -- THERE is probably no body in the country who wants John Kerry elected more than Franklin Raines.
Don't know who he is? Raines is the former Clinton Administration bigshot who currently runs Fannie Mae.

Back in 2000 I picked Fannie Mae as one of a few stocks to own if Al Gore became president and one to avoid if George Bush won the office.

The Democrats would protect Raines and Fannie Mae, the quasi government organization that issues mortgages, from the kind of insight that might uncover the wrongdoing that some of us suspected was occurring.

Well, it took four years after Bush won but people are now avoiding Fannie Mae, whose stock is falling amid investigations of its business ethics and accounting practices.

more...

[KoKo]

62. ROFL! A real "tongue stuck in the old cheeck" from NYPost of all places!

:P Geeze...On Edit...maybe I read the article wrong...:shrug: who knows today!

[UpInArms]

20. 9:40 EST numbers

Dow 10,198.40 -18.14 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,954.93 +2.53 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,134.76 -0.41 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.177% +0.004

NYSE Volume 60,855,000
Nasdaq Volume 118,888,000

[54anickel]

23. Splash o' blather just came out

9:40AM : Indices open near unchanged, much in line with futures indications...fairly impressive actually, given record oil prices and earnings warnings from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 13.34 -0.36) and Pulte Homes (PHM 51.70 -4.63)...SOX semiconductor index is up even with AMD warning...lack of broad impact suggests traders are willing to see problems as company specific...IBM (IBM 87.95 +0.79) upgraded by JP Morgan...

[54anickel]

21. Europe Worries Over Russian Gas Giant's Influence

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/05/business/worldbusiness/05gazprom.html?oref=login

snip>

Much to the consternation of the European Union, which now numbers several former Soviet bloc nations among its members, Russia through its natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, has spun a web of control over energy supplies extending from Estonia on the Baltic Sea to Bulgaria on the Black Sea.

Russia holds the world's largest natural gas reserves, with 1,680 trillion cubic feet, more than twice the next-largest reserves, in Iran, according to the Energy Information Agency of the United States Energy Department.

Not surprisingly it is the world's largest natural gas producer and exporter, giving Moscow considerable economic leverage over the countries that are dependent on Russian gas, and the leverage is not limited to the former satellites. Over 44 percent of the European Union's gas imports come from Russia, mostly from Gazprom.

snip>

Furthermore, he said, Gazprom's network of joint ventures across Eastern Europe is interfering with the European Commission's aim of diversifying energy supplies to European Union countries. "Gazprom's stated aim is to extend its dominant position," Mr. Bergasse added.

But even as Westerners worry about Gazprom's expansion, some Russians involved in the energy sector are skeptical about the financial value of the joint ventures. A report issued by Hermitage Capital Management, Russia's largest equity-investment fund, with assets of $1.5 billion, including shares in Gazprom, said Gazprom did "not seem to be receiving significant profit from its investments in these joint ventures."

more...

[ozymandius]

24. 9:56 numbers

Dow 10,197.37 -19.17 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,952.30 -0.10 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,134.86 -0.31 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.17% -0.003
NYSE Volume 144,423,000
Nasdaq Volume 229,529,000

[ozymandius]

27. Here's a side o' blather.

U.S. stocks trade mixed as oil weighs

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks futures traded mixed Tuesday as oil climbed into uncharted waters, with investors also cautious ahead of key data and a speech by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan before the American Bankers Association.

This morning, crude is back above $50, which could weigh on market sentiment if it holds there throughout the day," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Pado said the market is showing some "resilience to the downside," but could fall back on profit taking as the major indexes hit key resistance levels.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041005/4c19ce63b67622677cb70a8d2ba3896a_1.html

[UpInArms]

25. Layoff plans leap 45% in September

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB1A3BD45%2DB068%2D41F1%2D80C6%2DE70929B0288F%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Layoff announcements by U.S. companies surged 45 percent in September to nearly 108,000, the highest number of planned job cuts since January, outplacement firm Challenger Grey & Christmas said Tuesday.

Job reduction announcements are up 41 percent from September 2003, while year-to-date job cuts are down 17 percent from 2003's pace, Challenger said. The total of 107,863 announced layoffs for the month was not seasonally adjusted, the firm said.

"The return to six-figure job-cut levels paints a grim picture for ongoing economic growth, as such activity is generally considered a measure of how companies view future business conditions," John Challenger, chairman of the firm, said in a written statement.

"Historically, the period from Sept. 1 through Dec. 31 is when we see the heaviest downsizing, and this year appears to be on track to repeat that trend," Challenger said.

The largest cuts in September were in industries focused on computers, transportation, telecommunications and consumer products.

For the third quarter, job cuts were up 20 percent to 251,585 vs. the second-quarter's 209,895 and are up 4 percent from the third quarter of 2003.

...more...

[54anickel]

34. Well isn't that special. Yet the pundits and markets seem to promote

150K jobs created as "good". They hardly ever point out that this number barely keeps up with new entrants to the job market. Sheesh!

[UpInArms]

26. 10:02am 10/05/04 U.S. SEPT. ISM SERVICES 56.7%

Oooohh! More "surprised" economists!

they predicted 59% to 61% - can't they ever look at the world without their freakin' spin?

[UpInArms]

30. U.S. Sept. ISM services index shows slower growth

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38265.4201041667-822588669&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The services sectors of the U.S. economy grew at a slower pace in September, the Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index slipped to 57.6 percent in September from 58.2 percent in August. Economist had expected the index to rise to 58.8 percent in September.

[UpInArms]

38. Services sector drops in September

ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 56.7 from 58.2, missing Wall Street forecast of a rise.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/05/news/economy/ism_services.reut/

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Growth in the vast U.S. services sector slowed in September, with a significant decrease in prices paid, according to an industry survey published Tuesday.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index fell to 56.7 in September from 58.2 in August, below Wall Street predictions for an increase to 59.0.

A number above 50 indicates growth, while a figure below that threshold denotes contraction in the sector, which accounts for about 80 percent of the U.S. economy.

The ISM survey's employment index rose to 54.6 in September from 52.5, while demand for new orders eased slightly to 58.5 from 58.6. The prices paid index fell to 67.1 from 70.0.

...very short newsblurb...

[UpInArms]

28. 10:06 numbers and lying blather

Dow 10,178.64 -37.90 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 1,947.10 -5.30 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,132.99 -2.18 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.171% -0.002

10:00AM: Indices remain fairly stable in early trading...September ISM services index comes in at 61.0 at the top of the hour, slightly ahead of the expected 59.0 and up from 58.2 in August...this could prove a slight positive for stocks...

9:40AM: Indices open near unchanged, much in line with futures indications...fairly impressive actually, given record oil prices and earnings warnings from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 13.34 -0.36) and Pulte Homes (PHM 51.70 -4.63)...SOX semiconductor index is up even with AMD warning...lack of broad impact suggests traders are willing to see problems as company specific...IBM (IBM 87.95 +0.79) upgraded by JP Morgan...

Huh??? ISM came in at 56.7

[UpInArms]

35. LYING blather corrected

10:00 ET Indices remain fairly stable in early trading...September ISM services index comes in at 56.7 at the top of the hour, slightly below the expected 59.0 and down from 58.2 in August...this could prove a slight negative for stocks... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

[54anickel]

32. Guess Who’s Coming To Dinner?

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor, said the country had more preparatory work to do before the renminbi could be allowed to float freely: “China’s forex regime could change on certain conditions but we need to do more preparation,” he said. After the meeting, Zhou was more explicit: “It is impossible to change it now.”



US Treasury Secretary Snow welcomed the reforms already implemented by Beijing, but continued to insist that “China is important for maintaining strong global growth, and a more flexible and market-based renminbi exchange rate is an important part of this goal.” In case anybody missed the meaning, he added: “I underscored that I would like to see China move more quickly.”



In fact, the rumours of an imminent revaluation of the renminbi always seemed implausible given the Bush Administration’s own longstanding policy of benign neglect towards the dollar. Although Mr Snow has occasionally paid lip service to the Rubinesque mantra that a strong dollar is always in the best interests of the United States, he has often undercut this notion by affirming the need for markets to determine its proper level. The latter proviso has generally been seen as furnishing implicit support for a gradual devaluation, with the occasional “strong dollar” remark thrown in to prevent a gentle decline from turning into a freefall. Moreover, the timing for a significant revaluation would seem odd, as such a dramatic move in front of the US elections would no doubt incur high risk of upsetting global investors and global financial markets, particularly US fixed income markets.

So why the sudden frenzy last week? The key seems to be a September 28th China Daily article by Jiang Ruiping, director of international economics at China’s Foreign Affairs University, which likely reflected ongoing concerns that Beijing shares about the future long term course of the greenback:

more...

[UpInArms]

33. Banks are strong, Greenspan says

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD96D3415%2DBAF7%2D4BAB%2DB559%2D2369CBF8434A%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. banks have learned painful lessons from crises and competition and are now well-adapted to succeed in today's economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told the American Bankers Association on Tuesday.

Greenspan made no comments on monetary policy in his remarks, which were delivered by video to the bankers' convention in New York. A copy of his remarks was made available in Washington.

"The present health of banking is a dramatic testament to both the management skills of bankers and the ability of regulators and legislators to adapt, albeit slowly, to change," Greenspan said.

Greenspan warned bank managers to remember the lessons of past crises that had taught their predecessors "the need to manage risks, to control costs, to build capital and reserves, and generally to focus on the lessons of banking history."

...more...

[54anickel]

36. Don't worry, be happy!

snip>

"The passage of time no doubt has caused the experience to fade for those banks that looked into the abyss, but survived," he said. "Nevertheless, the systems and procedures that were put into place by many institutions remains one of the hallmarks of today's banking industry."

Greenspan had no sweeping proposals for new regulations or deregulation. The industry is still digesting the changes forced upon it by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley law that gave the Fed broad new powers over the industry as it diversifies into other lines of business.

<end snip


And just was that law that gave the Fed broad new powers over the industry?

http://www.pirg.org/consumer/privacy/glb.htm

http://library.lp.findlaw.com/articles/file/00081/007022/title/Subject/topic/Finance%20and%20Banking_Bank%20Holding%20Companies/filename/financeandbanking_1_550

[ozymandius]

68. Greenspan is a diaper pail on legs.

I suppose he addressed the banking industry's ability to hide their losses from epidemic foreclosures.

Risk management? How does one manage risk when rampant real estate speculation looks like a Florida real estate scam? As Groucho Marx said, "Come to Florida! You can even get stucco. (Boy, can you get STUCCO!)"

The Fed is not solely to blame for the outrageous house prices we have experienced in the past eight years. Much of these outrageous prices have everything to do with a bank's willingness to lend enormous sums of money to people who, while looking good on paper, cannot realistically afford the monthly mortgage payment and juggle their other monthly obligations. Did Greenspan every hear about people who are "house poor"? The phenomenon does not exist only inside a tiny cave on the edge of town.

If Greenspan believes that servicing an "interest only" loan for several years is a good idea - then he is so far removed from reality as to be the stuff of legend.

[54anickel]

70. Full text of Greenspin's Don't Worry, I've got it all under control.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20041005/default.htm

snip>

No discussion of better risk management would be complete without mentioning derivatives and the technologies that spawned them and so many other changes in banking and finance. Derivatives have permitted financial risks to be unbundled in ways that have facilitated both their measurement and their management. Because risks can be unbundled, individual financial instruments can now be analyzed in terms of their common underlying risk factors, and risks can be managed on a portfolio basis. Concentrations of risk are more readily identified, and when such concentrations exceed the risk appetites of intermediaries, derivatives and other credit and interest rate risk instruments can be employed to transfer the underlying risks to other entities. As a result, not only have individual financial institutions become less vulnerable to shocks from underlying risk factors, but also the financial system as a whole has become more resilient.

Derivatives have been used effectively by many banks to shift interest rate risks. In addition, while credit risks are transferred among financial intermediaries based on their ability and willingness to absorb such risk, increasingly credit risk has been transferred from highly leveraged financial institutions to those with much larger equity coverage. For example, not only has a significant part of the credit risks of an admittedly few large U.S. banks been shifted to other U.S. and foreign banks and to insurance and reinsurance firms here and abroad, but such risks also have been shifted to pension funds, to hedge funds, and to other organizations with diffuse long-term liabilities or no liabilities at all. Most of the credit-risk transfers were made early in the credit-granting process; but in the late 1990s and early in this decade, significant exposures to telecommunication firms were laid off through credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations, and other financial instruments. Other risk transfers reflected later sales at discount prices as specific credits became riskier and banks rebalanced their portfolios. Some of these sales were at substantial concessions to entice buyers to accept substantial risk. Whether done as part of the original credit decision or in response to changing conditions, these transactions represent a new paradigm of active credit management and are a major part of the explanation of the banking system's strength during the most recent period of stress. Even the largest corporate defaults in history (WorldCom and Enron) and the largest sovereign default in history (Argentina) have not significantly impaired the capital of any major U.S. financial intermediary.

[54anickel]

37. Paying the Fiddler

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc041004.htm

Valuations, China, balance sheets, oil and the dollar

Despite geopolitical tensions and a lackluster job market, there's no question that Americans have been dancing to an as-yet-unpaid fiddler. Valuations in the stock market remain near 20 times peak earnings – the same multiple observed at the 1929, 1972 and 1987 extremes, and significantly exceeded only at the bubble peak of 2000. Worse, earnings remain unusually elevated compared with other fundamentals such as revenues, book values and dividends, so current valuation multiples based on other fundamentals are even more extreme from a historical perspective.

The debt we owe to the fiddler has many aspects. Aside from valuations, which largely ensure that long-term returns on stocks will be unsatisfactory (regardless of whatever speculative returns we might observe in the short-term), the level of U.S. domestic debt, relative to GDP, has surpassed its prior 1929 peak. Cash-out mortgage refinancing has kept consumer spending strong – and though consumer spending has never turned negative on a year-over-year basis, the growth rate in the coming years is likely to fall short of overall GDP growth (another way of saying that savings rates will invariably be forced higher in the years ahead). On the domestic investment side, all of the growth in U.S. gross domestic investment since 1996 has been financed by massive and continuous inflows of foreign capital, evident in a current account deficit of a size normally only seen in banana republics. On the fiscal side, government spending (in all of its unproductive forms) has continued to grow strongly, while tax revenues in 2004 are projected to be only 16.2% of GDP. That's the lowest share of GDP since the 1960's (before the explosive growth of government spending which contributed to the rapid inflation of the 1970's).

In short, the key characteristics of the U.S. economy feature unusually rich valuations in financial assets, and unusual dependence on leverage and debt at every level – consumer, business, government and international.

How is all of this financed? Simple. Well over a billion dollars a day flows into the U.S. in the form of foreign savings. Foreign investors now own more than half of the existing float in U.S. Treasury securities. Much of this, as I've emphasized repeatedly (and will until the importance becomes generally recognized) is the result of foreign central bank buying in order to support the value of the U.S. dollar, primarily by China and Japan.

more...

[UpInArms]

39. 11:39 numbers and blather

Dow 10,190.59 -25.95 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,954.20 +1.80 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,134.98 -0.19 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.170% -0.003

NYSE Volume 516,426,000
Nasdaq Volume 705,844,000

11:30AM: The market continues to hang very tough in the face of negative news...the latest is this morning's Challenger Grey & Christmas report of a jump in September layoff announcements of 45% to 108,000...these are long term plans, not immediate cuts, but it still isn't good news...SOX semiconductor index has been very choppy today and is currently -0.1%...in further indication of good underlying sentiment, the IPO of restaurant chain Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) has priced today at $17.50, above the expected $15 to $17 range...NYSE Adv/Dec 1444/1584, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1260/1531

11:00AM: Steady as she goes...on light volume...Apollo Group (APOL) and Yum! Brands (YUM) report earnings after the close today, but earnings season starts up with Alcoa after the close on Thursday and General Electric ahead of open on Friday...also on Friday, of course, is the September employment report and the all-important payroll figure...expectations are for an increase of 155,000...NYSE Adv/Dec 1408/1496, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1222/1479

10:25AM: Stability continues in the face of negative news...just about every issue today has been bearish: oil, warnings, the ISM index...but, the market is showing resilience even after the gains yesterday...breadth is poor, however, as declining issues lead advancers by about a 3-to-2 margin, and in the Dow, 20 stocks are down while only 10 are up...NYSE Adv/Dec 1193/1576, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 933/1619

[54anickel]

41. Neither Here Nor There

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/rostenko100404.html

Naturally, various and sundry Wall Street analysts continued to insist that oil SHOULD be priced at closer to $25, thereby offering compelling evidence that we are nowhere near the ultimate high of this bull market. When the "crude at $25" clowns at Bear Stearns start singing "$200 oil!" we'll know the top is firmly in place. Until then, strap yourselves in for the ride...

Stocks had quite a day last Friday as the S&P 500 rocketed to nearly a 17-point gain on big volume. The index is now once again bumping up against the upper boundary of its downsloping trading channel. Were that channel to remain intact, we wouldn't expect to see such action. The most recent decline should have continued lower to test the lower boundary.

Alas, what should happen rarely does, particularly when the market's pattern becomes obvious. It is then when we should expect a surprise and it would appear that we're on the verge of just such a surprise. Any upside progress from here and the S&P high at 1163 is likely to be challenged.

Will it be exceeded? Anything can happen, of course. I've long since given up on attempting to predict the behavior and madness of crowds. If the market isn't falling, with ample opportunity to do so, why not buy it? Sure the outlook appears dismal, but if it ain't falling, IT AIN'T FALLING. It has to go somewhere, so why not up?

Which brings us round to the thrust of this week's essay. As market commentators, we tend to put ourselves in the bullish or the bearish camp. But oft times, reality isn't quite so black and white. Must our market be strong or weak? Must the economy expand or recess?

snip>

This is the long-term possibility that we face. Not necessarily boom, not necessarily bust. While a bust is the natural outcome of a pricked bubble, the forces of bust have met up against a formidable opponent: a Fed chief committed to assuring that his tenure won't be marked by any major ugliness, AT WHATEVER LONG-TERM COST. The net result? Not much of anything either way. At least for as long as the gig holds up.

more...

[54anickel]

42. Time to buy commodity producers

There goes the neighborhood! B-)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={0ACF134D-85EA-4D9C-AB10-7B130020EC84}

Energy has been the obvious winner, but now the trend is widening to include other natural resources like gold and base metals. Commodities are now the place to be.

What's going on? The answer, in a word, is China. The Chinese economy continues growing at a blistering annual rate of more than 9 percent even though authorities there have taken steps to slow the rate of growth.

In just a few short years China has gone from net oil exporter to the third-largest oil importer (behind the U.S. and Japan). Much of this economic activity is now being fed not only by Western technology, but also raw materials.

China's appetite for steel, copper, aluminum, lumber, and other building blocks has driven up prices in all these commodities and more. Add in the slower but still significant growth here at home, and this bull looks like it will run a long way, no matter what the stock market does.

The case for funds

more...

[54anickel]

52. Oil gains firm gold

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100680/content.asp?menu=commodities&dia=5102004

Further gains by oil above the $50 level across the day have added support to the precious metals, with gold rising back to $416.10 on the COMEX open. The lack of directionary comments from the IMF meeting at the weekend has led to some spec related profit taking over the past 24-hours but with US non-farm payroll figures at the end of the week and Greenspan’s speech later today there is still plenty of price potential for gold.

Dollar related profit taking led the precious metals sector to end the day weaker as selling was seen in all metals. Gold opened the day around the $419 level but began to see selling pressure from the start of Asian trade. The yellow metal drifted to $417 by the European open and eased further leading into the US open, starting on COMEX at $415.25. Early fund buying led to a brief reprieve but the selling returned once the order was complete and stops triggered around $413 eventually pushed the metal to its low for the day at $411.50. Book squaring and physical buying emerged to prevent further price falls as gold recovered towards the close, ending the day at $413.75. 2-way interest so far today has kept the metal trading around New York’s closing level with support coming from oil as it pushes back above $50 on concerns US supplies will see a longer disruption than originally thought. However with the Euro unable to break above the 1.2460 high from July, gold’s chance of breach the $425 level seems to have slipped for the moment although with fund players still taking a keen interest in the precious metals and some key data from the US this week there is still plenty of potential for price volatility if not price gains.

The gains in oil today have prompted buying in silver today, seeing the metal rise from a low of $6.70 during European trade to touch $6.80 in early COMEX trade.

Silver saw a similar grind lower over the course of yesterday, sliding from its open around $6.90 to fix in London at $6.83. Fund selling during COMEX trade added to the downward momentum, leading the metal to a low of $6.68. Silver closed slightly firmer at $6.72 and as with gold has traded around New York’s closing level this morning on mixed interest. Support should continue to be found from $6.65 to the $6.50 level with oil and base metals continuing to add direction.

Despite the gains by gold and silver today and the ongoing industrial action in South Africa platinum has failed to see much reaction, with a test to $840 on the NYMEX open being met by speculative liquidation. The metal has fixed unchanged this afternoon at $834.

[UpInArms]

46. 12:35 EST numbers and blather (feeling so much better now!)

Dow 10,208.28 -8.26 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,958.87 +6.47 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,137.11 +1.94 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.177% +0.004

NYSE Volume 673,958,000
Nasdaq Volume 891,285,000

12:30PM: Market holds steady...it has been a slow day, but it picks up later this week...in addition to the big employment report on Friday, September same-store sales data will be on Thursday...markets are looking for moderate gains...bonds are flat today, with the 10-year yield holding at 4.16%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1583/1503, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1347/868 mln

12:00PM: The stock market has withstood a slew of modestly bad news to hold near unchanged all morning...oil prices are up 79 cents, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 13.49 -0.21) and Pulte Homes (PHM 52.10 -4.23) warned of lower than expected profits...the ISM services index came in lower than expected, and Challenger Grey & Christmas reported that layoff announcements were up in September...there has been little positive news to offset this...yet, the S&P 500 has traded in a very narrow 3 1/2 point range and currently sits slightly positive on the day...

the resilience of the market perhaps reflects expectations that the upcoming earnings season will bring good news...Alcoa on Thursday and General Electric on Friday start the parade of reports, which for the S&P in aggregate are expected to show 14% to 16% growth in operating earnings for the third quarter...volume remains very light today while declining issues lead advancers despite gains in the broader indices...NYSE Adv/Dec 1261/1611, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1289/1571

(edited for html)

[54anickel]

47. "Modestly bad news" now that's funny. So what's with them all moving

straight up in unison over the lunch break again?

[54anickel]

48. Medical malpractice fights go to voters in four states

http://www.stateline.org/stateline/?pa=story&sa=showStoryInfo&id=402767&columns=true

snip>

The upcoming election marks the first time that voters in multiple states will be asked to weigh in on the complex issue. Because there are no laws limiting the amount groups can pump into promoting ballot measures, both sides are spending millions of dollars for victory, observers said.

In addition, the issue of whether or how to control medical malpractice premiums is dividing Democratic and Republican candidates in governors’ races in Missouri, Washington and West Virginia and in a handful of other state contests.

Voters are being inundated with television advertisements, such as one in Nevada that pounds home images of doctors wandering out of the state. Another in Illinois, where the issue was hot last legislative session, superimposes images of sharks to portray trial lawyers as predators in a feeding frenzy. Other ads – with the slam of a gavel – tell voters to end frivolous lawsuits and hold big insurance companies more accountable.

“There’s a lot of positioning on both sides, and voters will have to be fairly engaged to figure out which of these (ballot iniativies) passes or doesn’t pass the smell test,” said Kristina Wilfore, executive director of the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, a labor-backed group in Washington, D.C. http://www.ballot.org/about/index.html

[54anickel]

53. What's the deal with the buck?

Last trade 88.21 Change -0.17 (-0.19%)

Settle 88.38 Settle Time 23:36

Open 88.49 Previous Close 88.38

High 88.50 Low 88.18



The December Dollar was higher overnight due to spillover short covering from Monday and is challenging resistance marked by the 20- day moving average crossing at 88.63. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a double bottom with July's low was posted last week. Closes above the 40-day moving average crossing at 88.90 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during the first half of October. Closes below July's low crossing at 87.52 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 84.77 later this fall. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

[54anickel]

54. Is it just me....

or is this starting to smell like a sucker's rally in gold!

[KoKo]

65. Nope...I think there's someone who needs to unload something and make

a profit given that the "hedgies" are reported to be having problems lately. Now let's all go play in the "fields of gold..copper..aluminum..whatever." Then DUMP when enough of the flocks have followed the leader...:eyes:

[54anickel]

74. Yep, it's looking that way

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kaplan/current.html

The last week saw the precious metals markets soar higher as large speculative commodity funds, hedge funds, and individual speculators placed huge bets that news or comments emerging from the upcoming meeting of the G7 (with China invited as a guest for the first time) would transform the current financial markets. These "players" were huge buyers of foreign currencies, wagering that the G7 would rail against the USD, and warn against the unsustainable economic impact of the large "twin deficits" of the USA. Another driving factor in last week's rush to the currency and precious metals markets was the thought that just perhaps the Chinese government may change, even to a small extent, their currency peg to the USD. There were even extremely foolish rumors, most centered on the internet, that the USA would announce a devaluation of its currency.

The buying frenzy was almost apoplectic in nature, pushing gold up $11.50 for the week, past the technical resistance at $416.80 (the old high in December Gold), and at one point through the $420 price level in spot gold. As is usual, these speculative forces were buyers near the top of the recent trading range for gold (let's say $385 to $425) and historical precedents would dictate that they are most probably wrong. On Monday, when the G7 announcements were much the same as the past, rather milquetoast, gold fell by $5.60 quickly. Some of the positions taken last week were immediately unwound, and the precious metals and the foreign currencies plummeted in value, as the USD rose.

Although this will be no cheer to the bulls in the market, I would expect that the odds favor a continuing retracement of the precious metals prices, all else being equal. Over the past year, every time the funds have poured into these markets, always near the highs, pushing the limits of their abilities and hoping for the long awaited "breakout" of the gold market, they have been humbled. In fact, as we see in the Commitment of Traders report, long specs may now total 19 million ounces of gold, now close to the all-time high seen earlier this year. The chart below is a technical chart depicting the "trading envelope" of the gold market since February of this year.

Please note, that with very little exception, that while the gold market has indeed seen a most distinct uptrend from May of this year to the present, the top band of the trading channel has not been convincingly breached. Each attempt for higher prices resulted in this market declining at least below the midpoint of the channel. Now, of course, this time might be different, but odds favor at least a small to moderate downdraft based upon historical precedents and based upon the knowledge that the large speculative hedge funds hold almost record long positions. Now, of course, this time could be different, as exogenous factors such as news, terrorism, or the continuing rally in oil may force gold higher. The gold market is most vulnerable at these levels, as the large speculative forces might lose confidence, and a cascade of selling erupt. Although, truth be told, it is hard for me to envision a break of the $400 level unless we see oil totally plummet, or the USD rocket into new highs.

more...

[54anickel]

76. Silver is also back up over $7.00 n/t

[UpInArms]

55. 2:09 EST numbers and blather (all red now)

Dow 10,172.08 -44.46 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,950.82 -1.58 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,133.81 -1.36 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.175% +0.002

NYSE Volume 914,717,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,175,801,000

2:00PM: Indices are fading some and a quick check of the oil market will help explain why... After pulling back from higher levels seen earlier this morning, crude futures have rebounded in aggressive fashion and are now up $1.29 at $51.20/bbl... Speculative interest and pressing supply concerns entering the winter heating season have helped fuel the buying interest... On a related note, natural gas futures have jumped $0.51 and are at $7.23 per million BTUs... Homebuilding, airlines, biotech, apparel, and casino are among the notable areas of weakness within the S&P... NYSE Adv/Dec 1736/1459, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1475/1548

1:30PM: The all-too-familiar trading range mentality appears to have taken root as neither buyers nor sellers have shown much decisiveness in today's trade... Breadth figures bear that out as they favor advancers by a narrow margin at the NYSE and decliners by a narrow margin at the Nasdaq... From a relative strength standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 is the leading standout with a gain of 0.35%... Winners in that area include Microsoft (MSFT 28.41, +0.29), Nextel (NXTL 25.60, +0.57), Qualcomm (QCOM 41.27, +0.30), Intel (INTC 21.41, +0.28) and Cisco (CSCO 19.22, +0.26)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1705/1457, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1473/1490

1:00PM: Market still trading in mixed fashion, but with a slightly positive bias of late in terms of direction and improving market internals... Tech sector is acting as a source of support as it continues to shake off disappointing earnings news on the assumption it has already been discounted... The oil-related stocks are another source of leadership today as oil prices near $51/bbl... Should come as little surprise then that the airlines are on the defensive...

[54anickel]

57. New rival for credit card leaders

http://www.iht.com/articles/542034.html

U.S. consumers already swamped with offers from credit card companies can expect more solicitations in the coming months from American Express and Discover Financial Services.
.
The two companies said Monday that they would move quickly to sign partnerships with banks after the U.S. Supreme Court let stand a ruling that Visa and MasterCard had violated federal antitrust law by barring banks that are members of their networks from issuing rival cards in the United States. Visa and MasterCard together accounted for more than 80 percent of outstanding credit and debit card balances in the United States in the first half of this year, according to the Nilson Report, a trade publication. American Express controlled 9 percent, and Discover, 7 percent. Visa and MasterCard are associations controlled by banks, which use the Visa and MasterCard networks to settle transactions. American Express and Discover run competing networks.
.
"This will be a tremendous opportunity for us," said Kenneth Chenault, chief executive of American Express. "The consumer will benefit."
.
In January, American Express announced a joint venture with MBNA, a large credit card issuer, and with Monday's court decision, MBNA can start issuing the new cards. "American Express has something that Visa and MasterCard don't have, and that's cachet," said David Robertson, publisher of the Nilson Report, who predicted that some banks will "kick the tires" and experiment with issuing cards with the American Express brand.
.
Chenault emphasized that American Express would continue to focus on more affluent customers rather than pursuing a mass-market strategy.

more...

[UpInArms]

58. ah, smell the

"cachet" of debt :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

64. Wha... Just look at this mess!

2:49
Dow 10,163.16 -53.38 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 1,951.73 -0.67 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,132.68 -2.49 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.173% 0.00
NYSE Volume 1,045,506,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,331,015,000


Oil traders hate America, love Saddam (sic)

U.S. stocks trade mostly lower as oil tops $51 a barrel

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks traded mostly lower Tuesday on concern over the economic impact of a fresh spike in oil to new highs.

-cut-

Oil over $51 a barrel

Monday's retreat in oil prices offered only a temporary respite as crude futures surged over $51 a barrel in New York trading.

Crude-oil futures were pushed to records on concern that 484,000 barrels of daily production from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remains shut in because of last month's hurricanes, and on doubts that last week's peace accord between Nigeria and rebel groups in the Niger Delta will hold, says Tim Evans, a senior analyst at IFR Energy Services.

Crude climbed as high as $51.25 a barrel in late New York trading -- that's the highest level the futures market has ever seen.

[KoKo]

66. Don't worry...the "analysts" say oil is going to stablize shortly at $45,

and after all the "analysts" are always right on the number taking us down the road to ruin. :crazy:

[UpInArms]

69. Former Enron asst treasurer strikes plea deal

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6420267

HOUSTON,, Oct 5 (Reuters) - A former assistant treasurer at Enron Corp. (ENRNQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) agreed to plead guilty to conspiracy to commit securities fraud on Tuesday and will cooperate with prosecutors, according to court documents filed in U.S. District Court in Houston.

Timothy Despain, who served as assistant treasurer at the company between January 1999 and May 2002, admitted in an agreement with prosecutors that he lied to credit ratings agencies to manipulate Enron's credit rating.

Despain was scheduled to go before a U.S. District Court judge in the Southern District of Texas later on Tuesday to formally enter his guilty plea. Under sentencing guidelines, he could serve up to five years in prison in connection with the charges.

Despain is the latest former Enron executive to cooperate with the government in its prosecution of wrongdoing at the company, which collapsed into bankruptcy in December 2001 after billions of dollars in hidden debt was uncovered.

Despain's testimony could give prosecutors more ammunition against former Enron Chairman Kenneth Lay, former Chief Executive Jeffrey Skilling and former Chief Accounting Officer Richard Causey, who are facing charges of conspiracy, fraud and manipulating the books.

...more...

[UpInArms]

71. 3:13 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,158.44 -58.10 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 1,950.36 -2.04 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,132.07 -3.10 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.171% -0.002

NYSE Volume 1,135,694,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,414,360,000

3:00PM: The major indices remain mixed and are off their lows for the day... In the past half hour Wal-Mart (WMT 53.00, -0.31) reaffirmed its Q3 EPS guidance of $0.52-0.54, but clarified that earnings are likely to come in at the low end of that range; both Thomson/First Call and Reuters Estimates show a consensus number of $0.53... WMT's dip has weighed a bit on the Dow and S&P whose biggest laggard today is AIG (AIG 66.53, -1.96)...

Latter component being undercut by a Wall Street Journal article that said company's law firm didn't provide documents to SEC during a probe of AIG's financial products unit... NYSE Adv/Dec 1562/1659, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1318/1744

2:30PM: Market stays on the defensive with the Dow and S&P hitting new session lows in the past half hour... The spike in oil prices above $51/bbl is drawing the most attention as a catalyst for the retreat... Overall losses are modest in scope, though, as gains in the energy stocks are acting as an offset to weakness in other areas... The Treasury market is little changed for the day, but has pared some of its losses as the afternoon rally in crude futures has some traders expecting a slower pace of economic growth... NYSE Adv/Dec 1620/1594, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1305/1722

[ozymandius]

77. Home stretch numbers and blather.

3:53
Dow 10,181.81 -34.73 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,955.49 +3.09 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,134.71 -0.46 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.173% 0.00
NYSE Volume 1,321,939,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,598,258,000

U.S. stocks turn mixed in final half-hour of trading


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks were mixed in the final half-hour of trading Tuesday as blue chips pulled back and the Nasdaq eked out a gain, amid concern over high oil prices and jitters over the upcoming third quarter earnings season.

Meanwhile, British regulators' sudden move to shut down flu-shot maker Chiron Corp.'s primary plant sent the company's shares tumbling as much as 36 percent and fanned fears the U.S. could be vulnerable to an influenza epidemic.

-cut-

Other stocks in focus

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD - News) joined the band of chipmakers warning of a slowdown in revenues. AMD said third-quarter sales would come below those reported in the second quarter due to weakness in its flash memory business.

more...

[ozymandius]

78. Closing numbers (blather forthcoming)

Dow 10,177.68 -38.86 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,955.50 +3.10 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,134.48 -0.69 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.173% 0.00
NYSE Volume 1,418,844,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,700,714,000

[ozymandius]

81. closing blather (blame it on oil)

Blue Chips End Down as Oil Hits Record

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. blue chips edged down on Tuesday as crude oil climbed to a fresh record above $51 a barrel and economic data showing slower-than-expected growth in the services sector weighed on the markets.

short blurb

Treasuries Prices Near Flat

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices were nearly steady on Tuesday, taking in stride a weaker-than-expected report on the U.S. services sector and a gush to record high crude oil prices.

Dealers are wary ahead of Friday's September payrolls report, which could set the tone for the bond market until the U.S. presidential election Nov. 2.

Bond prices looked poised to rise as crude oil values accelerated to record highs, but buying interest was chilled by upbeat comments in the afternoon from Dallas Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Bank President Robert McTeer.

more...

Dollar Drifts Lower as U.S. Data Weigh

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower on Tuesday after bearish reports on the U.S. services sector and job market caused a sell-off ahead of Friday's widely anticipated September employment data.

Traders also focused on whether Fed officials would give any indication that the high price of oil, which set another record on Tuesday, is taking a bite out of the economy. Such comments could be interpreted as a sign the Fed would be more apt to pause this year in lifting interest rates.

-cut-

The market's next focus will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday -- the final employment report before the presidential election in November. The report is expected to show an increase of 148,000 new jobs, up from 144,000 in August, according to a Reuters poll.

more...

[54anickel]

82. Suckered by McTeer and the rest of the talking Feds?

[TrogL]

83. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2004-09-07 Tuesday, September 7 0.776277 USD
2004-09-08 Wednesday, September 8 0.774893 USD
2004-09-09 Thursday, September 9 0.776518 USD
2004-09-10 Friday, September 10 0.776398 USD
2004-09-13 Monday, September 13 0.769231 USD
2004-09-14 Tuesday, September 14 0.773994 USD
2004-09-15 Wednesday, September 15 0.770001 USD
2004-09-16 Thursday, September 16 0.774353 USD
2004-09-17 Friday, September 17 0.769112 USD
2004-09-20 Monday, September 20 0.772559 USD
2004-09-21 Tuesday, September 21 0.776036 USD
2004-09-22 Wednesday, September 22 0.780275 USD
2004-09-23 Thursday, September 23 0.78235 USD
2004-09-24 Friday, September 24 0.783515 USD
2004-09-27 Monday, September 27 0.785053 USD
2004-09-28 Tuesday, September 28 0.784068 USD
2004-09-29 Wednesday, September 29 0.785546 USD
2004-09-30 Thursday, September 30 0.790639 USD
2004-10-01 Friday, October 1 0.791828 USD
2004-10-04 Monday, October 4 0.785793 USD
2004-10-05 Tuesday, October 5 0.792079 USD


NEW! Up to the minute graph greenback vs. loonie (down is good)



The loonie took a major jump against all currencies. I missed the news this morning so I have no idea why.