Bush Holds Narrow Two-Point Lead on Kerry(Zogby 3-day tracking)

[sonicx]

ST. LOUIS (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) holds a narrow two-point lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) less than four weeks before the Nov. 2 presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

Bush led the Massachusetts senator 46-44 percent in the initial three-day tracking poll, with eight percent of likely voters still undecided ahead of Friday's second face-to-face debate between the White House rivals in St. Louis.

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The national tracking poll of 1,217 likely voters, the first in a daily series that will continue through Nov. 1, was taken Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

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The poll found 52 percent of voters had a negative view of Bush's job performance and 50 percent believed he should not be re-elected. That compared to 47 percent with a positive view and 44 percent who wanted Bush re-elected.

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This is good, but..Kerry's dem support is only 76%, which i have a hard time believing. Kerry leads indies by 5%. Lots of room.

[russian33]

1. Its funny, when its the other way around, they call it a dead heat

2 point lead with a +/- 3% margin of error, doesn't it make it dead heat?

[ramapo]

2. Makes no sense

Half the people think Bush shouldn't be reelected, more than half thinks he's doing a crappy job yet he leads Kerry?

Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 by ~500,000. It's hard to believe that many Gore voters have moved into the Bush column.

[Kierkegaard]

4. I know several people voting for Kerry, whom voted Chimp in 2000.

None of the polls we're seeing consider the number of people who've previously abstained, the ones who are registering in record numbers, the first timers and the couch sitters, ALL jumping at the chance to vote in this one. And largely I'd bet, they aren't voting Chimp.

The excrement is about to hit fan, folks.

[lancdem]

7. His share of the vote is about the same as his job approval

That's the key, not that he's narrowly ahead of Kerry. Remember, 8 percent are still undecided.

[amber dog democrat]

3. I can only guess how frustrated and frantic they are becoming

They are on the verge of losing and they know it.

i am so looking forward to the next two debates. i am hoping more voters see this really is about character. If we have more of these man-behind-the-curtain moments its won't be good for the Chimp.

[demokatgurrl]

5. It will vanish after Friday. n/t

[lancdem]

6. I saw that 76 percent number, too, and found it strange

Every other poll has Kerry winning at least 80 percent of Dems, and the first debate galvanized Dems behind Kerry. The good news is, this poll means Bush is probably near his maximum vote share, while Kerry has room to move up. An incumbent with 46 percent is in sorry shape.

[nine30]

8. Relax - polls as fake as Dean's lead over Kerry days before IA cauuses.

Remember Kerry/Dean/Gephdt were all within 2 pts of each other on Jan 17. And Kerry came out with a 17 pt victory on Jan 19. I don't trust these polls at all because I don't trust how they sample.

Sampling is *always* based upon the assumption that *every* LV/RV in the country has EXACTLY the same chance of being polled, which is anything but true. There are other assumptions too that are not correct however they can be compensated to some degree. Do we honestly believe that EVERY LV/RV has the same chance of being polled ?? BS. Not only are those being polled only a small segment of the voting population,but even among them voter preferenes not even.
The truth is despite these poll results the actual numbers could be anywhere from Bush (+15) {very doubtful} to Kerry (+25) {not unlikely}