WP: Two Trouble Spots for Bush: Iraq and the Philly Suburbs

[kskiska]

By David S. Broder

EXTON, Pa. -- The growing voter focus on Iraq and the continued weakness of President Bush in Philadelphia suburbs such as this one are tilting the key battleground of Pennsylvania toward Democratic challenger John F. Kerry.

Bush has made 39 trips to Pennsylvania as president in an effort to swing its 21 electoral votes, which Al Gore won by five percentage points in 2000, into the Republican column -- a feat that his strategists say would almost guarantee a second term. But he has run up against a seemingly immovable barrier in voters such as Marshall Liss.

The bearded martial arts instructor has decided that the reasons the administration has given for going to war with Iraq are "ridiculous," and because of that, he regards Bush as "a complete failure." He is no enthusiast for Kerry, saying that "I thought he was clueless until I saw the debate," but he has decided to "give Kerry a chance to straighten out this mess."

It is voters like Liss who are responsible for the small lead Kerry enjoyed in three independent Pennsylvania polls released this week. The most highly regarded of the trio, Franklin and Marshall College's Keystone Poll, put the Massachusetts senator ahead 49 percent to 43 percent, reversing a statistically insignificant lead Bush had a month earlier.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18733-2004Oct8.html

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. kick

[Rowdyboy]

2. I disagree with your kick, so I will kick to give you a chance to

respond!

[kodi]

3. most philly burb repubs hold their nose and vote GOP regardless

but not this time.

[Dogmudgeon]

4. The 'burbs are going heavily Democratic this time

They finally woke up to the fact that the Republican leadership in Harrisburg has choked off state aid to the Philly area.

Talking to people I know who work at the photo-license center -- where they do motor-voter registration -- the registrations are running 10-1 Democratic. And when most people register, they rant about Bush.

Arlen Spector is about the only Republican who is even half-way "safe", and that's simply from Joe Hoeffel not having had the decades of exposure that Arlen has had.

--bkl

[Soopercali]

5. Hoeffel's getting closer...

Nine points in the latest poll, thanks to the first round of TV ads. Keep up the good work, Joe!

[Riptide]

6. I live in the Philly burbs, in southern Chester County...

There are a lot of repukes here, but I am noticing many, many Kerry signs, often more than Bush signs. Happily, I think Bush is in big trouble here.

[monchie]

7. IMHO, this looks more like a long-term trend.

And it's not just the Philly burbs.

I grew up in the Philly burbs, in Delaware County, and most of my family still lives there. While traditionally Republican, they've been trending Democratic in presidential races since 1992. Back in the 1960s, JFK and LBJ managed to win Delaware County, but those were aberrations due to a heavy Catholic vote for JFK and post-JFK-assassination sympathy/fear of Goldwater votes for LBJ. Between 1968 and 1988, the area reverted to the Republicans. But then Clinton won the Philly burbs in 1992 and 1996, as did Gore in 2000, although I believe Shrub did manage to take Chester County, the most conservative of the 3 counties, by a small margin.

I now live in NYC, and this trend is mirrored in suburban areas here, which have become increasingly Democratic. Nassau County, which once had a Republican machine that was even stronger than Delaware County's, is now controlled by the Democrats, and Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester counties are all trending Democratic in presidential races.

From what I've been able to read, formerly staunch Republican suburbs in the Northeast, Great Lakes states, and West Coast seem to have similar trends. My best guess is that this is a backlash against the far right takeover and Dixiefication of the Republican Party, and that moderate Republicans, especially women, feel increasingly more at home among the Dems than with their own party.

One caveat: I doubt that politicians like the Dems' last three nominees for NYC mayor -- David Dinkins, Ruth Messinger, and Mark Green -- would ever gain support in suburban areas. OTOH, the nominally Republican Philly burbs were part of PA Governor (and ex-Philly Mayor) Ed Rendell's base. The difference I believe is this: Dinkins, Messinger and Green were all highly ideological liberals, while Rendell has always been a pragmatic, moderate liberal.

[modrepub]

8. Trends

The four counties bordering Philadelphia are largely republican, always have been. But these repubs tend to be social moderates and fiscal conservatives. Neither one represented by the current Republican party. This is the area that all repubs need to hold to counter the Philly dems. The repubs can have the rest of the Republican "T" (middle and norther parts of the state) and even to some extent SW PA. With the exception of a couple of counties, these areas are loosing population.

There are a large number of Catholics in PA. I'd say most would be inclined to support Kerry. It will be close in November but I think Kerry will win PA. * may be wasting his time and $ campaigning here.

I saw a good sign on my neighbors lawn: "Get the son of a Bush out of office!". Wonder how long it will take for it to get stolen...