Experts Wary of Predicting Win for Bush

[whatelseisnew]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4541695,00.html

Sunday October 10, 2004 5:46 PM


AP Photo MNSA104

By TOM RAUM

Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush will be the first president in 72 years to face the electorate with a net job loss. The Iraq war has deeply torn the nation. National polls show a neck-and-neck race. Yet economy-based projections still show a decisive Bush victory on Nov. 2.

What gives? Political scientists and many economists say this may be the year to throw the economic models out the window. Forecasters are flummoxed about the impact of Iraq, uncertain about the true state of the economy, and less sure about their projections than in any recent election.
...
But Mark Zandi, chief economist at the company, is skeptical. ``The economy is losing momentum going into the election, there is a lot of angst among voters. The models may not be picking that up,'' he said.
...
``I wouldn't give you a nickel for those models. I think the polls showing the race is reasonably tight are probably a lot more accurate than those models,'' Chimerine said.

[joefree1]

1. Be careful of polls, lessons from 2000

Tracking poll: Bush holds narrow lead in tight contest
October 10, 2000
From Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Republican presidential hopeful George W. Bush holds a narrow lead over his Democratic rival, Vice President Al Gore, in Tuesday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll.


The survey of 790 likely voters, conducted October 7-9, shows Bush with 47 percent and Gore with 44 percent. This edge is within the poll's 3.5 percent margin of error.
More ...
http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/10/tracking.poll/index.html

CNN went on to perdict a 7% Bush lead over Gore on October 29, 2000.

[Raven]

2. I favor the "Windshield Poll"

I count yard signs and bumper stickers and Kerry is way ahead here in New Hampshire! :-)

[Wapsie B]

6. Same in Iowa.

Many signs for local and state repug candidates in yards around the area. But many do not have chimpy's sign at all.

[LiberalFighter]

3. Economic models don't reflect the economy?

Must be something wrong with the models!!!!!!!!!!!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

4. At least they are NOT predicting a WIN for the SOB!

:)

Kerry will win!

[ninainsf]

5. Not considering an Oct. suprprise, I honestly think Kerry is going to win

Here's the way I look at it... The polls are already showing Kerry pulling ahead, and polls only include likely voters. My feeling is that this year there is going to be a LARGE number of new voters who are not getting captured in the polls. New voters are mostly Democrat.

[kclown]

7. For what it's worth, an optimistic interpretation (and a terrifying addend

I know from my own experience with my colleagues that there
has been a lot of defensive macho posturing by Bush supporters
for a couple of years now, aided and abetted by the echo
chamber.  These folks may consider it out of the question to
answer a pollster with anything other than support for Bush,
despite doubts.  I think it is inevitable that many of them
will change their minds in the booth, and that JFK might win
easily.

Now the terrifying part: if the election result is at odds
with the pre-election polls, will the administration accept
it?

[Moderator]

8. Duplicate

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=894322