Study ties Hussein, guerrilla strategy (Duelfer: US fell into Saddam trap)

[Barrett808]

Study ties Hussein, guerrilla strategy
US may have played into plans, report says
By Bryan Bender, Globe Staff | October 11, 2004

WASHINGTON -- The ''shock and awe" attack that toppled Saddam Hussein in three weeks is often touted as a brilliant strategy that defeated Iraq with relatively few US casualties. But new information suggests that the United States may have played into Hussein's plans for a quick war followed by a long guerrilla insurgency.

The report last week of the Iraq Survey Group, based partly on interviews with captured leaders of the secretive Iraqi regime, said Hussein planned to have his troops and loyalists pull back after an initial US thrust and engage the Americans under terms more favorable to the Iraqis.

The quick fall of Baghdad was once seen as vindication of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's belief in the power of smaller numbers of fast-moving troops. But recently, even President Bush has conceded that the early victory of the US-led coalition helped lay the groundwork for an insurgency that has claimed the lives of 929 US troops since the end of major combat on May 1, 2003.

Bush portrayed the insurgency as an accidental consequence of a war plan that worked too well. Last week, however, the Iraqi survey report declared a guerrilla insurgency is exactly what Hussein envisioned. The Iraq Survey Group, a 1,500-member team created by the director of the CIA to search for weapons of mass destruction, has been on the ground in Iraq since the toppling of Hussein's regime.

''Saddam believed that the Iraqi people would not stand to be occupied or conquered by the United States and would resist -- leading to an insurgency," said the 1,000-page report by chief weapons inspector Charles A. Duelfer. ''Saddam said he expected the war to evolve from traditional warfare to insurgency."

The dictator told his advisers and military commanders before the invasion to stand their ground for about eight days, when Hussein would ''take over," according to the report.

(more)

http://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2004/10/11/study_ties_hussein_guerrilla_strategy/

[HysteryDiagnosis]

1. Just wait 'til they get ahold of some WMD... perhaps Rummy, Bush1

or some of the other throwbacks to the Iran Iraq war could help them out.... idiots. Idiots all of them are idiots. Being played by Iran, Chalabi, Hussein, anyone and everyone.... and they strut around so smug and so smart. Nonsense.

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=&imgrefurl=http://www.bordergatewayprotocol.net/jon/media/scary/&h=405&w=554&sz=48&tbnid=q1mGViLv9scJ:&tbnh=95&tbnw=129&start=1&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dscary%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26safe%3Doff%26sa%3DG

[htuttle]

2. The Bush administration has been playing into Osama's hands too

Like ol' Brer Osama said before the war, "Oh, please don't invade Iraq! Whatever you do, don't invade Iraq!"

[jukes]

6. too true, too funny

if it weren't also so sad...

[bpilgrim]

3. exactly what many right here pointed out

SURPRISE

how many more traps will the neoCONs blindly lead us into?

peace

[leftofthedial]

4. well duh. his "army" had zero chance

guerilla tactics are the only choice for someone as outgunned as the Iraqis.

BUT

the insurgents aren't Saddamites.

The little bushturd has played Osama's bitch and Saddam's bitch right down the line.

One would almost suspect that the Saudis are really calling the shots.

[UpInArms]

5. huh?

Someone needs to send me to the re-education camp on this one.

So how does the US military overthrowing Iraq and putting SH in prison work in SH's favor?

I don't get it. Maybe I'm just s..l..o..w..

[jukes]

7. he hasn't been tried

or convicted yet. the only "legality" behind his arrest is the fact that the country is occupied. if the freedom fighters throw out the occupiers, they cd release him, even restore him to power if THEY choose.

[Maple]

8. Assuming that's even Saddam

and not one of his 7 known doubles

[UpInArms]

10. I'm not certain that they would put him back in power

what with most of the Iraqis seeming to believe that religion should definitely guide their politics and SH was secular.

[daleo]

9. I suppose it doesn't work in his favor personally

But it does make the best use of the hand that history dealt him, concerning his conflict with the U.S., and especially the BFEE. I suspect Iraqis will eventually look upon Saddam Hussein as a heroic patriot, once he is safely dead and the American forces have been expelled from their country. There is no telling what kind of time frame that may be, however.

[UpInArms]

11. that sounds utterly childish and I'm not certain

that SH was that immature -

"You're gonna be in trouble when I'm dead and gone"

[daleo]

12. I am not saying he was looking forward to the conflict

Just that he realized that guerrilla war was the only reasonable prospect that Iraq had for defeating the U.S. and U.K. forces, and he planned accordingly. I would guess he hoped he could ride it out until the conflict was over, without being captured. He did manage to do this for some time.

He may be gaining some solace from the idea that Iraqis will view him as a patriot in the future. Or not. I suppose it is a moot point. I was just pointing out that he probably will be seen as a patriot by Iraqis in the future, the way that unsavory characters often are once they can no longer actually affect anything. Many Russians look back longingly at the Stalin era, for example, whether it makes sense to us in the west or not.