An Electoral Surge for Kerry

[cjbuchanan]

This is BusinessWeek Online's second look at how the Electoral College (news - web sites) map is shaping up in the 2004 Presidential race. In our first look, President George W. Bush (news - web sites) had taken a commanding lead in the race after the GOP convention in New York. Polls had showed him ahead in 30 states with 284 electoral votes -- 14 more than the 270 necessary to win the White House.

But a week of Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates has scrambled the electoral map again. Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry has closed Bush's lead in the popular vote and taken a tiny edge in the Electoral College.

THREE TOSS-UPS. Bush is clearly ahead in 28 states with 237 electoral votes, having lost a decisive edge in the pivotal battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio. Kerry leads in 19 states and the District of Columbia, which account for 247 electoral votes. The three toss-up states -- Florida, Ohio, and Iowa -- with their 54 electoral votes will determine the winner.

The senator must win just one of those three states to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to capture the White House. Bush must win a megastate and at least two states captured by Al Gore (news - web sites) in 2000, including Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Oregon.

More at: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/bw/nf200410118087db038

Always good to see.

[billybob537]

1. Can you say BA BYE Whistleass

[Catfight]

2. No time to do a victory dance until we have ALL of those votes!

I'm going to a moveon.org meeting for the first time tonight..wish me luck.

[donheld]

11. You are 100% right

i will be glad to do a victory dance, but only after the votes are in counted and Bush is offically the LOSER.

[arwalden]

18. And After The Supreme Court Says So!

[Zero Gravitas]

3. George W. Bush

Your clock is up.

[JuniperLea]

7. hahaha!

it says so all over the 'internets'.

:p

[jukes]

4. hopeful news!

now, if only they'll let us vote, & actually count those votes...

[WI_DEM]

5. actually they are wrong

If Kerry has 247 electoral votes, they say he needs only one of three states: Ohio, Florida and Iowa--if he wins Ohio that is 21 electoral votes so he would still need Iowa or Florida--only if Kerry wins Florida does go over the 270.

[Parche]

6. kerry

if Kerry wins all the states that Gore won
plus NH he wins, along with AR is going our way
He cant lose any of those states, and it looks good right now
If we get OH and FL then its a landslide


My magic number is if Kerry can get over 190 electorates
by the time we reach Texas, then he has won, because there are
55-CA 7-OR 10-WA and 3-HI and 5-NM for a total of 80 added
to 190=270

[joeunderdog]

12. I was in southern NH today

and was pleasantly surprised at the number of Kerry signs up. Lots of signs in general, but the edge went to Kerry in numbers.

[Stargleamer]

13. Kerry doesn't need NH

remember Gore WON Florida.

Well, even if you don't think so, Kerry needs more than NH, because, among other things Florida's electoral count changed from 2000 to 2004.

Much as I would love for Kerry to win Florida, it seems right now that Ohio is more likely to go Kerry than Florida and maybe he should concentrate his efforts there more. If Kerry wins Ohio plus the states Al Gore won, then he wins, perhaps by 270-268, if Wisconsin doesn't come through.

[coreystone]

14. With all respect.... Kerry NEEDS every state he can get......

There are not exceptions.

Sorry, but, let us not take any state for granted, nor, a "tarot card" reading of what will happen on November 2, 2004.

:-)

:dem:

[RedEarth]

8. NOW... is the time all of us must WORK EVEN HARDER

We have to get this criminal out of the White House....contact your local Kerry/Edwards office or go to http://www.johnkerry.com/front/splash.html to volunteer...do anything.

let's each of us spend some time helping John Kerry!!!!!1

[northzax]

9. good news

now use this as motivation to keep working harder and harder until every single vote is in and tallied.

This should inspire us to work harder, do not get lazy or complacent, FIGHT.

[Sparkle]

10. I hope it sticks. Keeping my fingers crossed!

We have got to kick Bush* out of the White House!

[dogpatch]

15. The margin of victory

That's what will be key, if it can exceed the cheating margin.

[MsMagnificent]

16. WOO HOO!!! *kick*

But don't forget, it ain't over til it's over...

No let up until the finish line

[struggle4progress]

17. Graphic

<snip> Mr Kerry pulled ahead of President Bush in the electoral college race as tracked by Electoral-Vote.com, which updates daily based on state polls.

The site, which is run by a self-proclaimed Kerry supporter who aims to be non-partisan, has Mr Kerry on 270 electoral votes and Mr Bush on 248, with two states too close to call. <snip>

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3732674.stm

[StevieM]

19. I think Kerry will win Wisconsin and Nevada.....

along with Iowa that will get him to 269. Unfortunately that means Bush takes it in the House if he can't win Florida or Ohio.

What I don't understand is why he isn't trying harder to win Arkansas. I honestly believe that he could win there if he would go on the air and increase campaign stops in the state. Winning Arkansas would make it possible for him to win the election without Florida or Ohio.

Although I certainly hope he wins one or both of them too, of course.

Steve

[gottaB]

24. link to electoral-vote.com

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[JCMach1]

20. The party had it Kerry 264 Bush 239

With Florida outstanding :(

[T Bone]

21. sounds good for throwing the bastard* out on election day

nt

[demokatgurrl]

22. Not so fast with the champagne-

none of those states - FL, OH and IA- are easy for Kerry. I think we should just forget Florida, or try to, because Jeb will do all in his power to "win" that, or steal it. Ohio is a better possibility. I don't know much about Iowa although I did see a car with an Iowa plate driving around PA with Kerry stickers on it.

[murielm99]

23. Iowa went to Gore after they counted all the absentee

ballots.

We have some good people on the ground in Iowa working hard. My daughter is one of them. She has already voted.

I think we will take Iowa.