Will Terror Alert Level Show Its True Colors? (Alert/Poll #'s Link Found)

[Khephra]

By Al Kamen
Wednesday, October 13, 2004; Page A19

A Cornell sociologist says he has found scientific evidence that, whenever the government issues a terrorism alert, President Bush's approval ratings go up, even on domestic issues, such as his handling of the economy.

Robb Willer, assistant director of the Sociology and Small Groups Laboratory at Cornell -- someone else runs Large Groups? -- tracked about 26 occasions since 2001, including the major Code Orange alerts by the Department of Homeland Security, when some agency -- the FBI, the State Department or someone else -- announced a potential threat to Americans.

He tracked those with 131 Gallup polls taken during that time up until May. Willer, a doctoral candidate in sociology, found that, on average, each warning prompted a 2.75 point increase in the president's approval rating the following week.

Willer said yesterday that his research "controlled" for various things such as the Afghan war, the beginning of the Iraq war and the capture of Saddam Hussein, though not for economic good news or other positive developments. His study says he conducted "several time-series analyses" and used "regression models" and stuff like that.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A28037-2004Oct12.html

[Alexander]

1. "and stuff like that"?

This article, as great as it is, is not very professionally written.

[Khephra]

3. It's one of those "insider" columns

so they're trying to be unprofessional and silly on purpose.

Yeah, it's a shame that an important finding like this is published in a column like this. If I was a tin-foiler, I would think that it might have been printed in a silly style so that it wouldn't be taken seriously.

But I'm not a tin-foiler.

Really.

I'm not.

Stop saying that!

[951]

4. I didn't know Arnold wrote in newspapers

:D

[tuvor]

2. How long have we gone without a terror alert? Is it a record?

Just seems like it's been a mighty long while.

It's almost like all of bush's minions are forgetting about the terrorists as they work on bush's re-selection.

[Steelangel]

6. or wait until last min.. like two days before election

then alert comes up to make the chimp's approval rating comes up?

[KittyWampus]

7. Don't Forget Them Finding That School Disk In Iraq

which was later found to be a non-story on page A16.

[UpInArms]

5. I'm glad that someone else has finally noticed what we

and many others have known for a long time.



http://www.deeperwants.com/cul1/homeworlds/journal/archives/002572.html

There are few things that are quite evident from the chart:

- Whenever his ratings dip, there's a new terror alert.
- Every terror alert is followed by a slight uptick of Bush approval ratings.
- Whenever there are many unfavorable headlines, there's another alert or announcement (distraction effect).
- As we approach the 2004 elections, the number and frequency of terror alerts keeps growing, to the point that they collapse in the graphic. At the same time, Bush ratings are lower than ever.

Update: for the record, we are not claiming that all these alerts are politically motivated. We are sure a considerable amount of these alerts were legit and caused by real and immediate information of potential threats. What is important to note is that many of these "immediate" terror alerts were later on discredited (in some cases they used old data, in other cases the announcements were less immediate and less urgent that we were lead to believe, as the press reported.) Those are the cases that could be interpreted as politically motivated, especially when they seemed to coincide with political news and events unfavorable to the administration.

(edited because I found a more recently dated chart)

[doni_georgia]

8. Fantastic visual aid

Makes me think of where I once read a scientific description of the struggles of someone who is drowning. Which, politically speaking, is exactly what this graphs represent.

How about the number of alerts between now and Nov. 2? I'm not a betting man but I'd set the over/under at 4.

Mac in Ga

PS - sorry moderator about duplicate topic earlier; I checked but missed it. My apologies... MiG

[NJCher]

10. really?

"...once read a scientific description of the struggles of someone who is drowning."

That's so interesting. I would imagine each rise is like the little air they can get and then dowwwwwwwwwwn, gasp, dowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwn?


Cher

[PROGRESSIVE1]

9. ...

[Stephanie]

11. He needs to do the reverse study

Whenever Bush's approval rating goes DOWN, they issue another alert. That's the real story.