Networks to Test New Exit Polling System

[Zorra]

By DAVID BAUDER, AP Television Writer

NEW YORK - Determined to avoid a repeat of high-profile failures in 2000 and 2002, television networks will rely on new systems on Nov. 2 to help project election winners and analyze why voters made their choices. And they have turned to The Associated Press to count the vote for them.

The six news organizations that have formed the National Election Pool — ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and the AP — say they're confident things will go better this time, based on test runs and the experience of people involved.

Still, the TV networks said they would be careful projecting winners after prematurely declaring Florida, and the 2000 election, for George W. Bush. (The AP did not declare Bush the winner on election night). The election wasn't ultimately determined for weeks after vote recounts and court fights.

The networks blamed Voter News Service, the company they had formed to count votes and conduct exit polls, for faulty data that led to the wrong calls in 2000. VNS tried to rebuild its system, but it broke down on election night 2002 and failed to provide usable exit polling information. VNS was then disbanded.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&e=2&u=/ap/20041013/ap_on_el_pr/election_networks

[Kira]

1. But they got it right in 2000

until they were told they got it wrong by Fox. So now they are going to "fix" it. I feel so much better.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. ...

[bemildred]

3. Trust us, we won't lie to you this time. nt

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. Are they going to interview more Repubs than Democrats?

[Mandate My Ass]

5. Foxes to report how chickens love them and want them

to be their leaders and protectors.

[daleo]

6. In other words - everyone will stay on-message

Condi Rice said an election just requires a high turnout and low violence (regarding Afghanistan). Honesty doesn't have to come into the picture.

[Brotherjohn]

7. This is great news. They DID get it right the first time. They only quit..

... b/c they were hounded into taking partial blame (kind of like what happened to Dan Rather).

VNS and "the networks" didn't get it wrong, they actually got it right. Florida was extremely close at all times. They jumped the gun on calling it for Gore early on (but they were still probably right), but called that back when it became apparent that it was going to get much closer (when it became apparent that Jeb and Katherine still had some work to do?).

This re-call is understandable. Seldom has a State-wide election been so close (if ever).

THEN, FOX NEWS and Bush's COUSIN, John Ellis, wrongly called the election for Bush. The other networks followed suit so as not to be "scooped", but they were not listening to exit polling. That was still too close to call. At that point, nothing was really "official" anyway, as everyone knew it was going to be challenged. It DID, however, have the psycholgical effect of casting Bush as the "winner" pending a challenge.

This is GREAT news. ESPECIALLY in a time of electronic voting, we NEED some outside verification that the tally reported by the polls is accurate.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

9. No, they didn't "jump the gun" when they called it for Gore...

...the first time. Between the time that the networks called it for Gore until they later claimed that it was too close to call, about 50,000 votes had disappeared from Gore's column in the Florida database.

The claim was made at the time that the computer system had somehow erroneously credited votes to Gore that had not actually been cast. That was an outright lie. The votes were simply MADE to disappear.

[Brotherjohn]

10. That's why I said "but were probably right" and "Jeb and Katherine...

"...still had some work to do".

[w4rma]

11. I sat in front of the TV and shouted that the results from the HUGE Dem

strongholds had not yet been tallied and was like, WTF?.

[progressivebydesign]

8. Where is JOHN ELLIS, Bush cousin working THIS time???

Wonder who'll call the race for Bush again? Fox? Or will CNN, in their rush to be Fox, do it first??

[Zorra]

12. I wonder if exit pollers would agree to be accompanied by monitors

who will observe and record polling methods in order to determine and report upon the honesty of the exit pollers and the accuracy of their results.

Exit polls can be rigged to reflect fraudulent electronic vote machine counts. If volunteer exit polling monitors accompany pollers and record all of the pollers methods and results, deliberate exit polling inaccuracies can be ruled out.

Otherwise, why should we trust them?

If the polling companies do not agree to have independent monitors, I would be very suspicious of the exit polls. If they agree, then the exit polls will be far more transparent.

[AirAmFan]

13. VNS exit-poll data for the 2000 election are available online at

http://webapp.icpsr.umich.edu/cocoon/ICPSR-STUDY/03527.xml

Interestingly, there are NO citations of 'Related Literature' available through this link. I don't know whether this is just a bibliographic omission at ICPSR or whether no reputable statistical studies of the 2000 exit poll fiasco have been published.

Does anyone here know?

From http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/cgi/CITATIONS/search.prl?&study=03527&method=study&path=ICPSR

"Voter News Service General Election Exit Polls, 2000 (ICPSR 03527)

Sorry, there are currently no citations in the Bibliography of Data-related Literature pertaining to Voter News Service General Election Exit Polls, 2000 (ICPSR <03527>). If you are aware of any publications related to this study, please let us know using our online Bibliography Citation Submission form."

[Sean Reynolds]

14. Why don't they use the same format they used for the primaries?

Those results were fast and worked quite well, no?

[nibbana]

15. Weighted by skin color and party affiliation..no doubt..

This will reflect the appropriate number of disqualified ballots..

[AndyTiedye]

16. They'll Just Download the cooked data Directly from Diebold

and suddenly we'll have exit polls that match the results down to the last voter. Amazing!


                until we have delivered all of your votes to Bush.

[SoCalDem]

17. I think I found their software

found at www.b3ta.com