Reuters Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead on Kerry(Reuters/Zogby )

[RedEarth]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) opened a four-point lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) the day after the final debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.


Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.


An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise. "The good news for the president is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds," said pollster John Zogby, who found 6 percent of likely voters are undecided. "Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected, up from 18 percent in our last poll."


Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race. "Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/nm/20041015/pl_nm/campaign_poll_friday_dc

[underpants]

1. **hiccup**

Oh excuse me

[Pig_Latin_Lover]

2. Why?

"He can run, but he cain't hide!"

[mhr]

3. Freepers Have Signed Up For Online Zogby Poll Skewing Numbers

Don't fret, this is only designed to discourage Dems.

Always remember that KKK Karl is working overtime to suppress voter turnout.

If we vote, we win!

[sniffa]

4. thank you

i've been screaming that since i got the invite from newsmax yesterday - "don't Let the LiberaLs skew the poLLs any Longer. cLick here to get on zogby's poLLing List"

[shrike]

15. Makes sense to me

It was the first thing I thought of -- Repubs have registered as Dems.

[aquart]

53. Buzzflash did that to get more Democrats on the Zogby list.

They did it a few years ago. That's how I joined.

Nothing's stopping the rest of you from joining the Zogby poll list.

[robbedvoter]

5. Nope. Zogby is back in line as it was in 2000 when Village Voice exposed

them. I am sure this is their phone poll - I am sure this is goosed - just as they were in 2000 (they didn't even bother to deny the paper allegations in 2000).
Zogby is against the war and supported Dean in the primary (already inappropriate) and screwed all others. So, suddenly, you all believe them.

[fugop]

8. exposed?

What did the village voice expose? I never saw that piece and would very much like to. I try to keep up to date on the pollsters and their biases (and give myself more reason to completely disregard them every day).

[robbedvoter]

11. I read it at the time -do not have it.

The Village Voice basically showed the bias for the GOP (it's referred in other articles I might find). The startling part of the article was Zogby's non-denial response. Then, the next poll showed Gore leading.
Their favoring of dean in the primaries was just as unprofesional.

[mhr]

9. We Are Talking Online Poll, Not Phone Poll, Two Different Animals

eom

[MidwestTransplant]

35. THESE WEREN"T ONLINE NUMBERS

The telephone poll of 1220 likely voters was conducted from Tuesday through Thursday (October 12-14, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

[Snivi Yllom]

40. this is telephone calling, not online

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1231 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All CALLS were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 12 through October 14, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

I suppose Zogby's call list may include contact numbers from the online polls, but how many really gave real phone numbers?

[robbedvoter]

69. SLIGHT WEIGHTS? Like what?

Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[fugop]

6. No way

No way Bush has moved into a tie with women. No way. I call foul.

On the other hand, just more motivation to get out the vote. They won't know what hit 'em.

[TheKingfish]

7. All that matters

Is Bush's number. 48 will not get it done. I would rather see 45 or below though to tell you the truth.

[HuckleB]

10. Baloney.

Something's fishy about the polls, in general. I don't know any relatives, friends or acquaintances who fall into the swing voter category (read Reagan Dems, Clinton Reps, etc...) who are not voting for Kerry. Now, I know that's incredibly anecdotal, but it's also completely a sweep. So what gives? The people I'm talking about live all across the country, include folks of all races, creeds, economic status, etc... after all.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

12. Horse crap.

[SOS]

13. "Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats"

What does this mean? 21% of Democrats are going to vote for Bush?
This finding seems absurd.

[Used and Abused]

18. Or vote Nader, or not vote at all nt

[SOS]

32. Not likely

Nader is polling under 1%.
The idea that 21% of Democrats will stay home on 11/2 is ridiculous.

[budkin]

39. No way!

We Democrats are more energized this year than we have ever been... Gonna be WAY more turnout for Kerry than that.

[lancdem]

19. That's the number in this poll I'm most dubious about

There's no way Kerry doesn't have more than 80 percent support of Dems.

[Freddie Stubbs]

20. Probably not vote at all

:shrug:

[progressivebydesign]

25. Please.. remember.. the number of Democrats are suspect in these.

I can identify myself as a Republican for Kerry, if I want. They ask you that. A LOT of republicans LIKE to identify themselves as Democrats, so that it's more striking that they support Bush.

You all really think that only 79% of democrats support Kerry? How many of us PERSONALLY know people that voted for Bush last time, and now are voting for Kerry? How many of us know people that voted for Gore, and are now voting for Bush?

It doesn't add up.

[Child_Of_Isis]

14. Bha blah blah! n/t

[Placebo]

16. Bullshit.

:grr:

[rocktivity]

17. Toro turd! Especially the young voter part:

The new tracking poll found Bush...and moving slightly ahead with young voters.

Bush says there will be no draft after the second debate, and all of a sudden younger voters have stopped worrying about it? This doesn't make any more sense than Bush's ten-point post-convention bounce. And if Kerry's gay remark were that bothersome, he wouldn't have won the Friday debate. Bush said he never said that he'd stopped caring about bin Laden, and no one has anything to say about it. Stop all of this fussing--I don't want to go through a repeat of what happened around here before the debate!

:headbang:
rocknation

[Puglover]

21. Horsecrap...

no sitting president with a pathetic approval rating of 48 is leading a challenger like Kerry. This poll is fucked.

[nine30]

23. So are young Repubs FUCKING COWARDS ? Perhaps

Oh..so when they think there is a draft coming..they flee the Republican Party, and as soon as Bush assures them there won't be one, they come running back in support of the war ?

[loudsue]

22. Zogby's heard about all the Dem voter registrations getting trashed

With all of the repukes in this country that are tearing up and throwing away the voter registrations of all the new Dem voters, Zogby has to understand that TENS OF THOUSANDS of Dem voters won't get to vote at the polls. That, right there, gives bush a few percentage points.

I REALLY REALLY hope that if Kerry wins this election, he appoints Eliot Spitzer as the Atty. General, and then tells Mr. Spitzer to "go get 'em".... every last one of these criminals. I want investigations into every outrageous repuke act that we've had to tolerate over the past 4 years, and I want LOTS AND LOTS of repuke operatives to go to jail for a VERY long time.

:kick::kick::kick:

[nine30]

27. Did he factor that in ?

Zogby has to understand that TENS OF THOUSANDS of Dem voters won't get to vote at the polls.

Surely Zogby didn't take THAT into account when calculating *'s lead, did he ?

[iceman_419]

24. In another batch of surprise news

My penis grew four inches over night.

[nine30]

26. This poll is mindless HORSESHIT

Bush opens up a lead AFTER the last debate ..which I felt Kerry won by a K.O. ?

BS! I know Zogby is a Dem, but I hope he is not Galluping to the right as well just to woo some Republicans.

[Ediacara]

71. Most of the polling was done after Debate 2

Which was considered a "draw." The clear Debate 3 knockout hasn't been polled yet AFAIK.

[mzmolly]

28. This race is a dead heat, no matter.

Kerry did praise Bush as a father, and his wife Laura? That might have given * a smallish bump, but it won't last. Further, Bush didn't crap himself and some of the supporters he lost came back. S'alright, Americans will come around ... and if we have an honest election, we should have this won.

[Rex_Goodheart]

29. I can't understand this.

I have less respect for the morals and intelligence of Americans every day.

[daleo]

30. The devil is usually in this detail

"WEIGHTING
Reported frequencies and crosstabs are weighted using the appropriate demographic profile to provide a sample that best represents the targeted population from which the sample is drawn from. The proportions comprising the demographic profile are compiled from historical exit poll data, census data, and from Zogby International survey data." (from the Zogby website).

It seems this gets fudged by pollsters frequently, although I thought Zogby was usually ok. Still, the result doesn't ring true.

[Steelangel]

31. Odd.. Zogby tends to be 'right' in that poll

and yet Bush is leading...?

I don't understand at all.

[TheKingfish]

33. Take a deep breath

Assume for a second the poll was conducted fairly

100 - 48 - 44 = 8

History tells us the incumbent will not get many of these votes.

[goclark]

38. Just saw CNN and The Ho Friend of Rush

That Dana?(sp) is such a ho!
She and Bill S. were sooo happy to report this poll!

As soon as I heard them say it I knew it was fishy smelling.

Then they happily told about 2/3 of the military families believing the war was a wonderful little idea. They said that Bush will get all of the votes of those people.

The Rove spin is in now. They are desperate.

[Snivi Yllom]

41. this red meat for the media whores (nt)

[Dogmudgeon]

34. Read this FIRST ...

Here's what most everybody misses, buried way down in the text:

The poll of 1,220 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday ...

It means that half -- or more -- of the sample was taken before the debate.

Monday's results will be more accurate.

--bkl

[buff2]

36. MSGOP is slobbering all over themselves

They keep repeating it over and over...."Bu$h is in the lead with 48% to Kerry's 44%. Anytime bu$h is ahead a few points they say he is "in the lead" but when Kerry is ahead it's always a "statisical dead heat"....."running neck and neck","Too close to call". I am so sick of the rightwing takeover I could puke buckets.Bastards....all of them. :puke:

[Gloria]

37. 2.9% Margin of Error...so that's a 4 pt. Lead?

NOT!!!!!

1220 likely voters....with no indication of how they're weighted, and if they are weighted, by what method? By state? By color of their eyes??

Again...Bush is in the lead by 4 points, screams the headline....with 3 points of that within the MOE.

The bullshit continues...

[Rex_Goodheart]

42. I have to confess...

Reading this poll this morning has made me sick to my stomach, and not just figuratively.

What's wrong with people in this country? Why can't they see what the entire world sees?

I have never been this depressed about the USA in my 51 years of life.

[cubsfan forever]

44. Zogby actually is a Republican

Though he normally is quite accurate. It's VERY fishy that one of the Zogby "pollsters" was on CNN (MSNBC?)immediately after the last debate. This is simply a scare tactic to keep voting down. 21% of Dems are not behind Kerry? Please! If we vote, we win.

[aquart]

54. And an Arab-American. Keep that in mind, too.

[robcon]

59. Zogby is not a Republican

He's a Dean Democrat. Always has been a Democrat.

[cubsfan forever]

60. That's not what I have heard

Maybe my information is inaccurate. If you could show a site that supports this, I would appreciate it, because now I am confused.

[donkeyotay]

68. hang in there

:hi:

Help is on the way. We're going to make it. Don't let the media-whore bastards get you down.

:kick:

[Rose Siding]

43. MOE of 2.9?

That's the lowest I've seen! And the HEADLINE. If it were Kerry, it would be "clings to slim lead" or "slight lead barely beyond the MOE and temporary he can't possibly hold this teensy, tinsy, itty bitty"...You get the idea. NOT "FOUR POINT LEAD"!

[bikebloke]

45. Zogby Gallups

I've been registered with Zogby for a long time. Rarely did they poll me. Then I tried somehting. I said I voted for der kleine fuhrer in 2000 (though giving him the lowest of marks.) Now I'm polled all the time.

[sweetheart]

46. whomever wins will win by 1 vote

The polls are just crap to sell news, and reuters needs to increase
its revenues. Its a dead heat.

[ticapnews]

47. National polls are meaningless.

State by state are all that matter. In Zogby's state by state numbers, Kerry leads the electoral college 278-207 with 53 (OH, FLA, AR) tied. Zogby has Kerry ahead in almost every battleground state: ME, NH, PA, MI, WA, OR, CO, NM, IA, MN, NV, WI Zogby also has Kerry within the MoE in TN, NC, VA and MO.

Don't be too quick to judge Zogby. His polls are unorthodox, but I think the more traditional polls have proven to be unreliable. Using their Republican-tilted polling, Gallup has Bush winning 327-211.

The only thing national polls are good for is the media spin, which is highly annoying, but isn't nearly as influential as people think. How many of those "undecided voters" are really paying attention to what the cable nets are saying at noon on a weekday anyway?

[cubsfan forever]

48. Thank you

Concisely and clearly stated. I, too have been following Zogby state polls, and he has Kerry ahead, just as you mention. This latest "poll" was salve applied by MSNBC for their conservative viewers who were so distraught over Baby Bush getting swept in the debates. We vote, we win.

[ProgressiveOne]

49. Holy shit.

I just heard this on the news and came here for the details.

I thought they were making it up. What the hell is wrong with this country?

[cubsfan forever]

50. It's a ploy

To demoralize Dems. See posts 47-48, plus the other ones in this excellent forum. Zogby is "predicting" that 21% of Dems won't vote for Kerry. If it looks like duck, walks like duck, quacks like a duck. If we vote, we win.

[foo_bar]

64. maybe it's a ploy to energize dems

and make pubs complacent.

[Name removed]

51. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[grasswire]

52. look at this

"The good news for the president is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds," said pollster John Zogby, who found 6 percent of likely voters are undecided. "Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected, up from 18 percent in our last poll."

So that means 7 percent of 6 percent in their sample have shifted and think he should be reelected.


Pretty slim shift, I say.

[ProfessorGAC]

57. Given The Sample Size, It's Meaningless

And Zogby should know better. He's actually a very good social scientist, and this shift is not statistically significant. It's also not relevant because the 3 day period is too short a time interval to determine a significant shift in the mean result.

If one use n = 3, and plots it as 3 point moving averages of 3 day periods, it brings the power to 0.64 and the shift of that one data point to only 0.12 standard deviations. Irrelevance!
The Professor

[cubsfan forever]

58. Yes, it is absolutely meaningless

and surprising that Zogby would do this. This reinforces my opinion that the freeper skewed "poll" was presented as consolation prize for Baby Bush getting trounced in the debates. As someone else noted, a lot of the poll was conducted before the last debate. They were (justifiably)afraid Bush would lose big and they wanted to have something ready for Friday. How typical. Thanks for sharing the information.
~Another Professor

[ProfessorGAC]

61. And A Cubs Fan Too!

Me and you both! Welcome to DU.
The Professor

[cubsfan forever]

62. Thank you

It's a pleasure to read a post from someone who understands the numbers and can explain it the way you did. It helps keep us all focused on the real mission: Get rid of Bush! And then maybe we can finally get the Cubs into the World Series... Thank you again, Professor!

[ProfessorGAC]

63. One Important Task At A Time, cubsfan

Actually what a year this would have been if the Cubbies hadn't imploded. We could have been in the World Series one week and kicked Li'l Georgie out the next. CooL!
The Professor

[AntiFascist]

70. That's not what the focus groups and phone polls showed after ...

the third debate!

[wrate]

55. Why doesn't DU has its own telephone poll? With over 52,000 Duers, it

should be possible for each one to make a few calls. Surely there are Americans here from every single U.S. state. And someone here must know how to conduct one of this things. Then everyone should just fill out a simple form posted here with their results using their password to keep it from being freeped.

Is this a stupid idea?

I am certain that if 10% of Duers were to participate in a coordinated effort to poll America, that results would be more reliable than any media poll.

I mean, it sure beats getting depressed over Zogby's latest poll :)

[VegasWolf]

56. Jeez, not another poll of "unLIKELY VOTERS". Methodology,

3 repugnants will show to vote for every 1 democrat. This
poll means that Kerry is way ahead!

New Information Shows Bush Indecisive, Paranoid, Delusional

[w4rma]

65. Ignore all polls. They are all a waste of time. Spend that time wisely.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x907313

[cubsfan forever]

66. Scripps Research Survey Center

has Kerry up by 5%. This is mentioned elsewhere in the DU forum. As someone stated long before I did: We vote, we win.
~Professor 2

[drmom]

67. Why when * is ahead they say he "Opens a 4-point lead"

As if it were the start of something big...while when Kerry was ahead a few days ago, it's just a "blip", or a "bounce" (meaning that it will come back down. Geez..I'm so tired of this!