Bush Surges Ahead ( 8 pt lead : Gallup )

[nine30]

Bush surges in poll
By USA TODAY staff
WASHINGTON — President Bush surged to an eight-point lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup national poll, giving the president a tie for his largest margin of the year with just more than two weeks left until Election Day. (Related link: Poll results)
In a poll taken Thursday-Saturday, Bush received 52% support from likely voters, Kerry received 44% and independent Ralph Nader received 1%. Three percent of likely voters had no opinion.

The 52% figure is a tie for




http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-10-17-poll_x.htm

[LiberteToujours]

1. Aaaaaaaarrrghh!!!

[Zorra]

37. LOL. CNN poll: Bush maintains 7-point lead over Gore - Oct. 29, 2000:

Dear Gallup: One definition of insanity is repeating the same action over and over and expecting different results. If you and your owner, who is reputedly a republican campaign donor, are genuinely interested in accurate results, I suggest you change your polling methods. You always get it wrong.

(John Kerry is going to get the same number of electoral votes that Bill Clinton got in 1992).

October 29, 2000
Web posted at: 12:54 p.m. EST (1754 GMT)
By CNN Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) - GOP presidential candidate Texas Gov. George W. Bush continued to maintain an advantage over Democratic Vice President Al Gore in Sunday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll.

Forty-nine percent of respondents said they supported Bush while 42 percent said they would vote for Gore, no change at all from Saturday's poll.

In the past, the poll has shown Bush with at least 48 percent of support for five consecutive days, and Gore with no more than 43 percent during that same length of time.
snip-----

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 25-27
Likely Voters' Choice for President

Bush 49%

Gore 42

Nader 3

Buchanan 1

Sampling error: +/-2.5 percentage points

Here are results from some other national polls on the presidential race

Bush Gore

ABC News/Washington Post 47 46
MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby 44 43

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/29/tracking.poll/

[Cat Atomic]

40. You know, I'll bet you're sitting in the same room as nine30.

In fact, I'll bet you're sitting in the same chair.

[TomClash]

2. Dupe.

[Randi_Listener]

3. Dupe

I want this thread locked.

[trumad]

4. Well you just posted the 1000th thread telling us that....

[w13rd0]

5. As a supporter of Dean in the primaries...

...polls don't mean shit.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Here we go again

this is GALLUP and folks the only poll that matters is on Nov 2nd

Personal observation, Gallup will have the chimster ahead from now on... it is how the WEIGH their polls

[Lefta Dissenter]

7. .

[jerryman814]

8. I'd really like to know what % of Repukes were polled...

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nine30]

12. What ???? Thats the most insulting thing I have heard ALL YEAR !!!

[Media_Lies_Daily]

30. I notice that you didn't deny it.

[Chelsea Patriot]

36. "Well, You Know Her!...Miss * Groupie Supreme!"

Rip Her To Shreds!

[0007]

28. There might be something to what your saying!

[nine30]

10. Sorry, my mistake . Admin , please delete this thread (nt)

[jerryman814]

11. freeper in our midst i believe

lock this thread.

[blm]

13. Gallup polls 39% Repubs, 30% Dems. They are ALWAYS skewed right.

.

[cubsfan forever]

17. Gallup always over-samples repugs over Dems

as one DUer said, in this case 39-30. Not only that, but they would hahave us believe that 30% were undecided? Nope.

If it's oversampled by 9, then even the poll of choice for the right-wing says Kerry is leading. This is their last desperate chance to try to suppress the Dem vote. Don't listen.

Professor 2

[amber dog democrat]

14. That's just their opinion

I stopped caring about Gallup some time ago.:puke:

[nedbal]

15. I just can't belieive this shit

Ok I'm a biased ABB .. but this is way off what the real poll will say 2 weeks from now.

I'll put money on Kerry in the 60's and Bushie in the 30's

[Randi_Listener]

16. Troll train

Pulling into the station

[stepnw1f]

18. Here We Go Again

Freeper Magic folks!!!

[Randi_Listener]

21. Get on board

The troll train and get your ticket punched.

[liveoaktx]

19. Show me the Internals

[Inland]

20. Gallup has 10% of electorate changing mind weekly

Do you think that's right? Or that Gallup is somehow got a bug in their methodology? Even without all the other polls with radically different results, you would have to conclude the latter.

[mbperrin]

22. Check your shoes! I smell the usual

shit associated with Gallup!

[tishaLA]

23. You must be sad to report this, too!

I'm sure you're just crying in your teacup as you post....

[asian_al]

24. for heavens sake...................

Polls don't mean jack shit.
Seriously.

Whether they look good for kerry, or look good for bush. Polls don't mean nothing at all.

[still_one]

25. how do they determine likely voters?

registered voters they say is Kerry 46 bush 49

I cannot find anywhere it talks about number of repugs verses Democrats

I know one thing this same outfit, i.e. Gallop said on Oct 20 that bush was 52% and Gore was 40%

There poll also indicated that most of those surveyed thought Kerry won the debates.

Zogby poll today says there is a two point difference

There is one thing I know, on November 3 the pollesters will have egg on their face along with the shrill media. Not only will Kerry win, but he will win by at least 5%

The undecided voters will vote for him, the 18-24 year olds, and the older people

DO NOT GET FLUSTERED!

that is what they want, to demoralize us...

As long as we vote, Kerry WILL WIN

[nine30]

26. Gallup has a political agenda..

..and that is to see a continuing Republican administration. They lied about the polls in 2000 just as they are doing now.

When most other polls have * up by a point or 2 , Gallup feels justified in showing a x10 point advantage for Bush as if there methodology is somehow better. However when Bush is down in the other polls, they show the race to be dead even or Kerry up by an insignificant amount within the MOE.

In any case one shouldn't give too much credence to Gallup. Its purely a political organization, with a political agenda.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

27. Geez....I thought we cleaned up this horse dung earlier.

[shockingelk]

29. 55% turnout

"The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults." http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

Turnout was 51.3% in 2000 - http://www.fec.gov/pages/2000turnout/reg&to00.htm

[sattahipdeep]

32. I think the turnout will be higher

to many people r angry.

[sattahipdeep]

31. Because......we have a "secret"

ballot.....there is good reason for that....
if the repugs were doing a survey.......they have your
name......address.......if the rethugs wanted to they could
even search your house.......trump up charges...put u in jail....
thanks to that law they passed.

If it wasn't secret.........people wouldn't vote the way they want to
vote......they would vote the safest vote.

People r going to protect themselves and their families.......just because
u r registered with a group......dem rep or ind.......doesn't mean u r
going to vote that way.

Some people lie.......some people won't say...a lot will tell ...and if it isn't
the way these people want..........maybe the ballots will go amiss like florida.

[NeoConsSuck]

33. Yes, this highly believable..

since the debate that everyone says Kerry easily won, the stock market has tanked even further, the jobs report came out and more jobs were lost, Americans are still dying to protect oil spigots in Iraq.

Yea, it makes sense that Bush would surge in the polls </sarcasm>

Note to Sinclair, Gallup, CNN, Fox, USAToday: When Kerry wins, get ready for a few neocon haters to settle a few scores. It ain't gonna be pretty.

[grok]

34. Previously Gallup had Kerry ahead by one

I just think this election is so unpredictable.

Turnout is what counts that most. not the polls.

Depends WHO is energized the most.

Grok

[daleo]

35. Registered voters was a statistical tie

Once again, "likely voters" gives Bush an edge. From their website, likely voters were 788 out of a sample of 1013. So, they got rid of about 22% of the sample in constructing their likely voters subsample. Lots of room for chicanery there. Registered voters accounted for 942 of the sample, which means only about 8% of the sample was dropped to construct the "likely voter" subsample.

Another way to look at it is that they are assuming that only 84% of registered voters will vote. They don't give a Republican/Democrat breakdown (which is suspicious), so I suspect this is another poll heavily biased to the Republican respondents.

This sort of stuff will be repeated endlessly for the next two weeks. It is sad to say, but commercial pollsters have very little validity anymore.

"Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,013 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted October 14-16, 2004. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 788 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 942 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls."

[MatrixEscape]

38. Anybody taking the

corporate masters and their media machines seriously these days deserves the tyranny they pay for!

I know, you may have grown up trusting the "man", but look at what his machine does to you in the end. If you keep on reacting to and lending credence to the big Oz-head, you are going be led deeper and deeper into a Fascist nightmare. The State and the corporations are approaching total unity. The Borg are ready to be born.

Try to chuckle more at the talking heads. They are in show business doing their agitprop like trained monkeys. Don't confuse that with real journalism. They are well-paid agents of the Ministry of Truth and they bring you Newspeak, Newthink, and amazing items like the magicial, mystical Bush Facade.

[Moderator]

39. This poll has been reported here....many times..

locking