CNN Survey: Kerry picks up OH, NH (Wow !)

[nine30]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- After strong performances in three televised debates, Sen. John Kerry has overtaken President Bush in the jackpot swing states of Ohio and New Hampshire, according to a new CNN survey that nonetheless shows Bush clinging to a small lead in the Electoral College.

If the election were held today, Bush would win 277 electoral votes to Kerry's 261, according to a new CNN survey based on state polling, interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts. A candidate wins the election with 270 electoral votes, regardless of the popular vote.

Eighteen days before





http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/15/electoral.map/index.html

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[wildeyed]

4. Did I miss something?

This seems like a nice article about Kerry having the mo'. Why the freeper talk?

[DuaneBidoux]

5. Excuse my question (I am a newbie but not a Freeper

Are you saying they guy posting is a freeper? It seems good news to me that CNN/Gallup would say Ohio is for Kerry.

[nine30]

8. RE:

Thanks Duane, but I will just ignore his remark.

[puddycat]

11. I think some of these old-timers are ultra-sensitive about newbies

I was personally attacked on another thread a couple days ago because I had the nerve to call war profiteers, well...war profiteers. Go figure. Perhaps there is an unwritten rule that us newbies are only supposed to post in puppy-dog and kitty-cat threads.

[wildeyed]

18. lol

I always found posting about bumper sticker sightings to be fairly safe, too.

[Catch22Dem]

21. Go back to freeperville, ya dirty stinkin disruptor!

I'm kidding, of course. Welcome to DU!!!! :toast: Post anywhere you like. If it means anything to ya, I was a lurker here before 9/11 and started posting a few months later. ;) Back then, the freepers didn't really care about us and the big battle was between the Greens and the Dems. It was huge!

[puddycat]

50. LOL ! Thank you for the welcome!

I don't think I'll be going to freeperville. Every time I do I feel an immediate need to take a long shower!

[Catch22Dem]

56. I hear ya

I don't understand why so many DUers go there.

[mom cat]

30. Welcome to DU puddycat. You can't ba a troll with a name like that!

:hi: Sorry someone bit your head off, but a number of new posters have been clearly trying to discourage, disparage and otherwise induce nausea among our ranks. They also want to bait, debate and waste the time of those who have done so much to build what we have here. `Same old dirty tricks they have used for years. So just take a few more moments before posting to check foe possible confusion that might occur. And, welcome again.

[puddycat]

54. Thank you for the welcome! Cat lovers are good people!

Yes, I figured that some of the personal attack was a result of the stress that most of us are feeling. This puddycat will seriously consider becoming a drinking cat if Kerry doesn't win on Nov 2!

Thanks again for the nice welcome!

[struggle4progress]

61. Nope. No such rule. Go ahead and get involved. eom

[William Bloode]

7. I find...

this type of attitude around here disturbing. A person posts something you dont like the look of and all of a sudden he's a freeper or a troll.

Did said person conduct this poll? How is he responsible for it's contents? You cant go around all the time, just picking and choosing the results you like. Sometimes they look good for our side sometimes not. But to bury ones head in the sand and ignore them altogether, act like a freeper yourself and try and discredit the messenger is extremely detrimental, and does not inspire alot of confidence in me.

[wryter2000]

22. In defense of DU

It looks to me as if the posts that attacked the poster have been deleted.

Yes, we can be sensitive to posts from newbies. But we have had numerous trolls. I can't comment on what the person said, because the offending posts have been removed, but I've found DU a very pleasant place to be.

So, to our new people :hi:

[EST]

34. When I first came here,

I was absolutely mystified by the old hands' ability to spot a freeper and crack down on 'em. There were even times it looked unfair to me. After a lot of reading and a few hundred posts, suddenly it became very easy to spot a troll, and so far I've been one hundred percent. Some folks get a little jittery, especially during the times when there are absolutely waves of trolls who come out of lurking and start disrupting. You'll get the knack, as they are usually pretty obvious, right away. Some aren't really freepers, just folks who are looking for a fight or a little edgy from their own battles, and they get whacked, unjustly, but with the mod's experience, this rarely happens. Good luck on DU; this really is home!

[crossroads]

55. LOL, It does get easy to spot the trolls...

Every time I get suspicious I put them on my buddy list...
Interesting to look back and see how many really were trolls/disrupters...
It gets easy after a while... like a DU sense sents in, almost like spiderman tingles...
:dem:

[tblue37]

42. I was told to "peddle it elsewhere"

when I complained that Jim Lehrer allowed Bush to rebut in the first debate but ignored Kerry when he signaled that he wanted a chance to rebut. How that translated into my being freeperish, I can't guess, but somehow someone interpreted that as a slam against Kerry.

Go figure.

Maybe being a newbie here is automatically considered eqivalent to being a freeper. But I have been posting regularly for 1 1/2 years on The Smirking Chimp, so it's not as if I am not adequately anti-Bush!

I think some people are just poised to attack no matter what you say.

[wildeyed]

49. Some people don't read posts carefully enough before going on the attack.

I got trounced the other day while agreeing with someone. I started my post with the word 'ironically'. So either they don't know what that word means, or they just didn't take the time to adequately read my post. Some people are just really contentious and I think the stress of the close election is getting to them. That and there has been allot of disruptor traffic recently. But there are lots of nice people here too, and lots of worthwhile conversations.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

60. Give me a reason why I would even WANT to inspire confidence....

...in you. You talk about bad attitudes and then exhibit your own.

[WI_DEM]

10. Why don't you get a grip

Wild accusations aren't called for.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Ediacara]

3. While I wouldn't exactly characterise NH as a "jackpot"

It's heartening to see CNN showing Ohio moving our way. What's disturbing however, is CNN (aparently) relying on GOP pollster Strategic Vision to give Wisconsin, Iowa, and Florida to Bush, and relying on crazy Gallup to give New Mexico to Bush, and fairly inaccurate Survey USA to give Colorado to Bush. I am not sure where they're getting their Nevada data, as the state appears to be ever-so-slightly in Kerry's column.

Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico are in Kerry's column, and Florida and Colorado, are definately in play.

Colorado would create some amusement on election night as the state may be called, and then partially uncalled depending on the outcome of the electoral vote referendum.

Actually adding up CNN's numbers and replacing what I pointed out above with something more accurate yields: 289 for Kerry with 36 up for grabs, and possibly a lot more adding in Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri etc.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. Colarado will be a state to watch then!

[erpowers]

12. Virginia

Do you really believe that Kerry can pick up Virginia. I am not trying to put you down or take away any hope. I did not really give any thought to Kerry picking up Virginia or even Arkansas. Why do you think that Kerry can carry Virginia and/or Arkansas?

[Ediacara]

13. It's true, Kerry trails in Virginia

But Bush has never been more than 5% ahead in Virginia the last 6 months. Demographic changes in Virginia show it to be ripe for the picking.

Kerry and Bush consistantly switch the lead in Arkansas, and the latest poll shows Kerry behind by less than 1%. I think Arkansas can be a Kerry pikcup.

[0rganism]

31. Interesting, the last poll e-v.com shows for VA is Oct. 6

A lot has happened since then, I'd think at least one pollster would be interested.

Then again, maybe the GOP doesn't want to admit that Virginia is more of a battleground state than Oregon.

[clydefrand]

29. Kerry can take Virginia if all the registered Democrats

get out to vote. When Kerry was in Norfolk back in the spring, there were thousands of military there to welcome him. I have talked to a Democrat Veteran who was there. The news was also in our paper, The Roanoke Times. Is VA still heavily populated with Bush supporters? You bet it is, but there are more Democrats than ever here so don't be surprised if Kerry takes my state as well. You may have seen earlier posts about our paper endorsing Kerry. This paper has a vast circulation in SW Virginia.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

43. I don't think Kerry can win VA. but we can certainly try!

I looked at the stats and it looks darn near impossible, also, other stats show that in 2000 Bush won 14% of Va.'s blacks- one of the highest percentages. (Missouri was the other)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=909919#910122

2000 black vote: http://216.239.41.104/search?q=cache:8Z-PrsclD2UJ:www.jointcenter.org/selpaper/pdffiles/blackvot/2000/BlackVote2000.pdf

[nolabels]

58. If he puts some into it that means bushco will have to put more into it

Instead of defense, try a little offense }(

[MADem]

16. NH is a very close neighbor to MA

So these silly polls are not surprising, regardless of past performance of the state. MA shoppers head to NH to avoid state tax, buy cheap booze and cigs, and southern NH is essentially, NOWADAYS, a bedroom community to BOSTON. Most of the huge, rapidly growing NH population in the south of the state were born and raised in MA. They moved over the border because it is cheaper living...the schools need work, but other than that, it's like suburban MA without sales tax. NH kids go to MA colleges, and MA kids go to NH colleges.

They are our 'French' Canadian siblings (Bienvenue au New Hampshire, reads the sign as you cross the border). We ski there, they go to the symphony and theater and sporting events (Celtics, Patriots, the brave and battered BOSOX) in MA. So, it is no surprise that when the rubber meets the road, Kerry will be warmly regarded. That Texas weecowboy only shows up there with his hand out, he knows nothing about the people, and cares less for them--after all, they're French, many of them. And we know anyone with French blood is unpatriotic, don't we? After all, weewee told us so.

[mom cat]

33. Dear MADem. dimwit ain't no Texan. He is a Connecticut Yankee.

He has the phoniest Texas accent I ever heard. He is a Beltway brat...no cows, just hat.

[txindy]

41. Oh, no kidding!

Junior is definitely no Texan. He is the Connecticut Cowboy. Did you hear his distinct lack of a Texas accent when he spoke to the U.N. recently? Funny how an accent comes and goes like that! Jeb was born and raised here in Texas, yet he doesn't have an accent. Hmmmm....

[MADem]

53. Connecticut won't take him or own him...

Bar crapped him out, scooped him up, and left the state...and even Kennebunkport, Maine, (as in Kennebunkport Cowboy) which is full of rich assholes who vote BushCo, had INCREDIBLE success with their ALL VOLUNTEER, no campaign funds expended, KERRY FOR PRESIDENT storefront this summer.

The people in Maine want their Point (as in Walker's Point) back. Just because those assholes live out there, traffic is rerouted and people are kept away from enjoying nature's beauty in that area.

In Alabama, they called him the Texas Souffle.

He may not be a Texan, but I blame those people who voted for that prick in Texas for vaulting that fucker to national office. I do not blame the good Texans who voted against him, but there were enough fools to claim him, so they own him, and they have to keep him. When you make the mess, you have to clean it up.

Wish they'd bring him home now, frankly!

[txindy]

57. Ack!! Oh, don't say that!

That's what too many 'undecided' people say when interviewed by the cable media, "I don't want to change leaders in a war. I feel that if you make the mess, you have to clean it up." Sheesh. :eyes: ;)

Besides, we in Texas did all we could to warn the rest of the country about Junior, but no one listened! South Carolina should take him since they're the ones who handed the primary to Jr. after believing all of Rove's lies about McCain. God knows Texans never got to vote in any primary that meant anything in terms of nominating a presidential candidate. South Carolina crowned the Boy King. If McCain had won South Carolina, he would've been the nominee, not Junior.

Texans know that the Governorship of this state means being virtually a figurehead. But, send him back, if you must. He'll leave soon enough when no one wants to truck all the way out to Crawford to bow down to him. He'll probably head to Houston or back to Dallas. That's far enough for me, I suppose. ;)

[NVMojo]

48. well, I'm in Nevada

and I'm surround by Repukes who think Bush walks on water. I am hoping really, really bad that us Dems take Nevada in the election but scared crapless that Rove (who is from Reno) and the state elected Repukes don't feck things up and make us the next Florida.

I do think this is good news about Ohio.

But I am thinking of blocking CNN and Headline News on my TV. Heard them today yapping on and on about how military families are in support of Bush. I know alot of military families here in the USA and overseas and they don't like Bush and are voting Kerry. Where does CNN get their info from???

[trueblew]

9. Bush is going to say and do anything...

to fulfill what he thinks God's plan is.

[Steelangel]

14. hmm

If the election were held today, Bush would win 277 electoral votes to Kerry's 261, according to a new CNN survey based on state polling, interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts. A candidate wins the election with 270 electoral votes, regardless of the popular vote.

I don't believe that statement, not a bit.

[JoFerret]

17. Current state of play: Kerry 253 Bush 247

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 253 Bush 247
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

And back and forth we go on the way to a Kerry landslide.

[Ediacara]

19. As I state above

Wisconsin and Iowa are messed up on CNN's site due to Strategic Vision, New Mexico due to Gallup, and Colrado due to Survey USA.

Kerry can, IMHO, not only carry two of the big three (Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio), but may snag all three of them.

[JusticeForAll]

38. Kerry landslide at 302?

Looking at electoral-vote.com and using the hypothesis that undecideds ultimately lean in favor of the challenger, it is a good possibility that we will pull the current undecided states FL, IA, NH (38 votes) and two states currently leaning Bush: NM and AR (11)

My guess looking at today's map would be 302/236, Kerry wins.

What is the definition of landslide? Is there an accepted one?

On Edit: If we can believe the new CNN Ohio poll over the E-V poll...Kerry is 322/216!!!)

[TOhioLiberal]

47. Landslide info...

Check out http://grayraven.com/ec/. It has a blank map that you can designate for Bush or Kerry. But what is really interesting is that you can go back clear to 1792 to see EC results. The Land slide comes in when you look at 1972 and 1984.

[Rose Siding]

20. New CNN survey based on...interviews with campaign aides

Now THAT'S who should be telling them about EV totes :eyes:

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

25. I've seen that before with CNN. WTF is up with that. Ed Gillespie "told"

them "we're gonna win OH!" And it's done!

[foo_bar]

39. I can't imagine CNN being wrong about a projection

[sundancekid]

23. this is same byliner (mercurio) who said that WH wanted him to put OH in *

column ... see post #19 of this DU thread that offers the transcript

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1087580

[dolstein]

24. Doesn't matter if he loses Wisconsin and Iowa

which the CNN survey shows him narrowly doing. Kerry needs to improve his standing in these states.

[cubsfan forever]

35. CNN needs to get some real data

Zogby last week had both Iowa and Wisconsin in Kerry's column. If CNN has Kerry "narrowly losing" these states, it means he is ahead by a couple of points. Iowa went Democratic the last 4 elections, and I do not see my birthplace Dems doing otherwise this time around.

Professor 2

PS~Ask Dr. Dean about Iowa and Kerry.

[Ohio rules]

26. Still shows Ohio weak Bush and NH tied

Florida is up for grabs

[cubsfan forever]

37. Zogby begs to differ

especially regarding NH, ME, IA, MN, and WI. Let's see what he says this week.

[Eurobabe]

27. where is the kerry SNOW-JOB ad?

you know the one mentioned in this article, with Snow's unbelievable quotes? link anywhere?

[StupidFOX]

28. I don't expect Kerry to take FL, BUT...

OH + PA = WIN for Kerry. Expect it.

[quaoar]

32. This shows how bizarre polls are

CNN's Gallup survey has Bush up by 8 points yet their state survey shows kerry surging in swing states.

Unfuckingbelievable.

[EST]

36. Is called S P I N

Faux is the repig mouth, CNN the asshole...

[sam sarrha]

40. saw talking heads say Kerry was only ahead in OH because of more VOTERS

supported him...???!!!

[StupidFOX]

44. lol, well don't worry...

I'm sure they weren't suggesting that the voters won't be deciding the election... oh... :(

[Oak2004]

46. And the definition of "winning the election" is?

:eyes:

[DivinBreuvage]

45. Kerry signs and bumper stickers FAR outnumber Bush in this part of Ohio

I travel through Summit, Cuyahoga, and Portage Counties (NE Ohio). Over the past two days I have noted 15 bumper stickers for Kerry, only 2 for Bush. My total count to date is:

Kerry: 262
Bush: 194

Oddly enough, for a few days before and after each of the debates I would see a sudden flourishing of Bush bumper stickers that really upped his count. By the third one I was wondering if the Republicans were paying people to just drive around all day with bumper stickers on their car.

Still, we have the documented case of the traitor Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell illegally attempting to supress voter registration, and the Beacon Journal just had an article today about how Republicans are going to, yet again, place challengers at polling places in Summit County. And the voting majority of the Buckeye Confederacy was, of course, stupid enough to swallow Bob Taft's lies and give him a second term. And the really infuriating thing is that so many of the people who voted for Taft and now bitch about being lied to will do exactly the same freaking thing next time.

My emotional feeling is that Ohio can't go for Bush this time. But under the governorships of Voinovich and Taft abetted by a Republican Congress, my native state has become so poor and stupid that we're well on our way to becoming the Mississippi of the North; and that sometimes makes me worry a little. I still believe Kerry is going to win regardless of Ohio's vote (though of course it's better for him to have those electoral votes) but what a disgrace if the state goes for Bush again.

[WLKjr]

52. Edwards is comming to Lima this sunday

Just thought I would say something to you. I got a phone call this morning form Allen county Dem HQ asking me to come back to volunteer this weekend and to let me know Edwards is comming to town. I was up and awake and very happy to hear that.

[nolabels]

59. I love them Kerry signs

Up and down the street down on one of the main drags they could be seen. Also there no Bush signs out but the right wing local rag of newspaper is so biased in it's support for the bushco regime that has to be making people wonder

[WLKjr]

51. Quite a few B/C signs came down around my area

after the Third debate. I don't know why :shrug: