Zogby Poll: Kerry/Bush Tied @ 45% apiece

[Zynx]

http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6527502

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry pulled into a statistical dead heat with President Bush in a seesawing battle for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Monday.

The latest three-day tracking poll showed Kerry and Bush deadlocked at 45 percent apiece barely two weeks before the Nov. 2 election. The president had a 46-44 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator the previous day, and a four-point lead the day before that.

About 7 percent of likely voters say they are still undecided between the two White House rivals.
<Snip>

[MaineDem]

1. Has a President been re-elected with these kinds of numbers?

I'm feeling really good about this. Cautious...but optimistic.

[Zynx]

7. No.

[shockingelk]

8. there's not been an election like this

Many people would have enthusiastically voted for Kucinich or Lieberman!

[glarius]

12. CNN still flogging their Gallop poll saying Bush 50%...Kerry 44%

:puke:

[Mr_Spock]

23. CNN is doing such a disservice this election cycle.

They need to be punished severely for this awful election twisting they are attempting to do.

[DuaneBidoux]

26. I LOVE your bumper sticker and want one now!!!

I live in Texas and this is perfect (obviously at great risk to my auto, but what the hell)

[johnnyrocket]

27. Like Stewart says: "It's not that your bad...YOU'RE HURTING AMERICA"

Spoken like a true hero. CNN is repulsive. At least the gig is up on Fox, everyone KNOWS they're fascists. The corporatist fascist-lite CNN still has 'clout' with a lot of the unsuspecting masses.

[Wright Patman]

16. Heck, most of the GOP

would have voted for the sad sack Lieberman, including ALL the neocons. Then it'd be on to Tehran. Guerrilla war in Iraq? What guerrilla war in Iraq. Iraq is a resounding success. Pay no attention to Holy Joe behind the curtain. We've got Joe-mentum.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. Think:

Trend Lines.

[ClintonTyree]

3. Yes...........

and the trend is in Kerry's favor! I KNEW this would happen when the election neared.

[shawmut]

4. I'm glad this came out real early on this Monday morning

so we don't have to hear about you know what anymore.

[Guaranteed]

5. And we've got the momentum, now.

Repukes are in BIG TROUBLE with this privatizing SS stuff.

We're gonna slam 'em for the next two weeks with this.

[fujiyama]

15. Several polls I saw

has Kerry with a pretty good sized lead among seniors - some 14 points - which is bigger than his lead among younger voters!

The poll I saw waas of seniors in FL. With those kind of leads in the state, and assuming he takes the independants, other than by fraud, I don't see Bush winning that state or this election.

[truthisfreedom]

6. bush must have really screwed things up with his debate performances.

people keep talking and hashing it over, and the numbers for bush keep dropping!

i think he was far too much on the offensive and went over the top trying to "paint" Kerry during the debates. rove miscalculated this drastically, and i don't think there's a solution to this problem.

bush's hope remains some sort of civil disturbance that instills fear. the fear machinery is all that's left. i hope that the fbi and cia and every other authority is on the alert for rogues within the system operating under daddy's old influence or bushco.

[rocktivity]

24. Another example of great minds thinking alike!

Orignally posted by Truthisfreedom:
I think (Bush) was far too much on the offensive and went over the top trying to "paint" Kerry during the debates. Rove miscalculated this drastically, and i don't think there's a solution to this problem.

I made a smiliar point yesterday:
The root of Bush's strategy was to convince the electorate that Kerry is more imperfect than he is. The debates, the first one in particular, destroyed that.

From the very first day, the Bush campaign tried to create a monster: an elitist, indecisive, terrorist-coddling, spineless liberal monster named John Kerry. (He wasn't referred to as "Scary Kerry" and "Lurch" just for the belly laugh.) They had the backup of a sychophantic mainstream media, and after the GOP convention, pollsters who need future GOP business. Bush's AWOL problem was killed off by Dan Rather while the Smear-Boaters stayed afloat long enough to taint Kerry's war record. So the first debate was to be the icing on the cake: with foreign policy its subject, a Bush victory was simply a matter of him chanting "9/11" and "You voted for the war before you voted against it." Rove had every right to believe that he was sitting pretty.

So what went wrong? In the unspun, unfiltered, unscripted, split-screen glare of the debates, tens of millions of voters DID see a monster. But it was an overbearing, whiny, sweaty, unstable, petulant, insecure, obstinate, tantrum-throwing, drooling and possibly wired monster named GEORGE BUSH...

:scared:
rocknation

[Demeter]

9. So How Can USA Today Say Bush Leads By 8 Points?

According to this morning's headlines, Bush is so far ahead that the game is over. If the GOP believes its own bullshit, then I won't worry. If they have two sets of books, one for themselves and one for public consumption, I still won't worry, except for the dirty tricks. But if this is a real number, I would like somebody in the media to do an expose' on why we can't get some correlation between scientific surveys, or whose surveys are worth the money spent on them.

[Zynx]

10. That number was produced by Gallup to discourage us.

[Kahuna]

14. Yup! Gallup is a propaganda tool. Period.

nt

[shawmut]

11. Gallup had Bush leading Gore by 13 points on October 27, 2000

http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/tracking.poll/



Gallup is junk.

[rjbny62]

13. yup, Gallup is unreliable - see 2000 numbers all over the map

This is what Gallup told us in 2000:
ALL LV

Oct17

Bush 48
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct18

Bush 49
Gore 39

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct19

Bush 50
Gore 40

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct20

Bush 51
Gore 40

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct21

Bush 50
Gore 41

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct22

Bush 46
Gore 44

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct23

Bush 45
Gore 46

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct 24

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct25

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct26

Bush 52
Gore 39

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct27

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct28

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct30

Bush 47
Gore 44

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct31

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov1

Bush 47
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov2

Bush 48
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov3

Bush 47
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov4

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov5

Bush 47
Gore 45

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov6 (last poll before the election)

Bush 48
Gore 46

[Nexus7]

19. About these numbers

I don't know whether it is you or someone else who posts these numbers each time a Gallup non-poll is mentioned, but I have just this to say about them.

It is what I call a "Proper Use of Statistics."

[diplomats]

21. That's what Rove wants the public to believe

[ruggerson]

17. This just shows how bogus Gallup's numbers are

[cubsfan forever]

18. Well said!

GALLUP/USA/MSNBC/ABC are the equivalent of Pravda.

Professor 2

[rocktivity]

20. It's the "Too Close To Call, But Close Enough to Steal" meme!

Is this the pollsters' way of holding on the the GOP's future business, or are they doing it at the request of the Bush regime because he's just too plain unstable to be told Kerry is ahead?

:headbang:
rocknation

[xyboymil]

22. Rasmussen also now tied 47% a piece. Gallup is SUCH an outlier!

It's ridiculous to take them seriously.

Go Kerry! :toast:

[CheshireCat]

25. Kerry has the "big mo"!!!

Man, I hope he can keep it.

ABB - All the way!

[F.Gordon]

28. Zogby "leaner" has it Kerry 47.2% and bush* 46.6%

Pollster John Zogby:"To bring Ronald Reagan into this picture: 'There they go again’. Kerry had a good day on Sunday. If I were to factor in the leaners in the 3-day track, it would be Kerry 47.2% to Bush 46.6%. I’m not sure it’s wise to put leaners in the equation at this point in the campaign because it is artificial -- but that is how close all of this is proving to be.

"This is, as I have said before, the same kind of roller coaster ride we saw in 2000 with the lead changing back and forth and neither candidate able to open up any kind of lead.

"Kerry is back to consolidating his support among Democrats, 82%-11%, and now holds a 44%-37% lead among Independents (who still have 14% undecided).

[Supersedeas]

29. don't forget the floor/ceiling effect: 45 * ceiling/ 45 is Kerry's floor

[BlueNomad]

30. Gallup

continues to be an outlier....all the other pols show neck and neck...

[Gloria]

31. Old Man Gallup must be spinning in his grave....if he had a normal

son, he would defend his father's name. But George Jr. is as nutcase. He runs his little religious polling thing ...I guess that keeps him happy.
Meanwhile, the real Gallup was sold off years ago to some outfit in Nebraska or Kansas...

Andy Kohut, who does Pew and also has his own firm, Princeton Survey Research, was one of the President's at Gallup (alternated) is much more respectable. But, this "Gallup" is Gallup in name only....

It angers me to see this happening to Gallup. I remember when working there was a huge honor. They paid less, but it was a real feather in one's cap to have worked there. It was very much an academic atmosphere back in 78-80 when I was there. Old Man Gallup roamed the halls and people like Sander Vanocur would come in to talk to him. People had pride in what they did. We were just in the infancy of phone polling; the Presidential preference question was put on an Omnibus survey which was a door-to-door survey, pre-screened and an appointment made in advance!

Times have changed! The old man died, the Gallup Organization was sold...and the rest is history....a sad history, at that.