CBS News Poll: Bush 47-Kerry 45, Bush job approval (low 40's now!)

[xyboymil]

The good news for President Bush in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll is the razor-thin lead he gets in the horserace.

The bad news in the poll is that his approval rating is in the low 40s, more Americans feel the country is on the wrong track and more voters dislike him than like him.

John Kerry also has higher "unfavorable" than "favorable" ratings. The question is whether Kerry's marks matter in a campaign that is largely about Mr. Bush's performance.


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/18/politics/main649964.shtml

:toast: Internal numbers look good for Kerry. As usual, CNN poll now looking more and more like an outlier poll.

[sonicx]

1. yup, not bad. but look at the last paragraph

The horserace numbers are eyed most suspiciously; Abromowitz notes that in the last week of the 200 campaign, there were 43 polls. Mr. Bush was leading in 39. The next week, Al Gore won the popular vote.

[lancdem]

3. And this poll includes two days, Thursday and Friday,

that were very good for Bush, according to the tracking polls, so Saturday and Sunday Kerry definitely regained his momentum.

[kostya]

5. Exactly!

Bush needs at least a 3 pt. spread to have any hope of winning. Turnout is going to be HIGH and that favors Kerry. Besides, he's doing better (trend up) in the states where it really matters.

Kerry On!

[Pirate Smile]

2. Ron Brownstein criticized the CNN poll on Lou Dobbs. Dobbs said

"Are you criticizing our poll?" Brownstein hemmed and hawed but did say how it does have the biggest swings of most of the polls.

[StupidFOX]

4. Remember!

Kerry's doing at LEAST 5% better than the polls say

[Career Prole]

6. After you look at the CBS poll numbers, read this...

WASHINGTON — While most of America is watching the spread in the polls between President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, key strategists in both parties have their eyes on a different set of numbers: Bush's share of the vote and his job approval in the final surveys before election day.

Analysts watch the incumbent's numbers in the polls so closely because most voters who stay undecided until the very end of a presidential campaign traditionally break for the challenger. As a result, challengers often run ahead of their final poll results, while incumbents rarely exceed their last poll numbers.

"We know from the history of presidential elections that when a president is polling below 50% going into the election, he usually loses," said Alan I. Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist. "That is true of incumbent office holders in general. The incumbent usually ends up getting the percentage that he is getting in the final polls — that's it."
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=latimests/pollsputbushontheedge

:toast:

[goforit]

27. Polling below 50% mean nothing, when the Bush's stole 2000???

This is maddenning!!!!

[AlCzervik]

7. good lord, look at this from that poll

WHOSE INTERESTS WILL THE CANDIDATE PROTECT?
(Registered voters)

Kerry
Ordinary Americans
65%
Large corporations
21%

Bush
Ordinary Americans
33%
Large corporations
59%

And this

IS WAR IN IRAQ PART OF WAR ON TERRORISM?
(Registered voters)
Yes, major part 38%
Yes, minor part 10
No, not a part 48 oops, not selling the iraq part of terror thing.

[UCLA Dem]

21. wow, that means kerry has done a good job separating the two!

[AlCzervik]

8. ok, one more thing

*'s approval numbers on the issues are shitty except for the terrah! number.

BUSH APPROVAL RATINGS
(All Americans)

Overall
Approve
44%
Disapprove
48%

Foreign policy
Approve
41%
Disapprove
54%

Economy
Approve
42%
Disapprove
53%

Iraq
Approve
42%
Disapprove
54

Terrorism
Approve
55%
Disapprove
38

[daleo]

14. Maybe something terrible will happen

But it will just be a coincidence.

[AlCzervik]

15. Now, now, stop that.

:evilgrin:

[UCLA Dem]

22. Are people just stupid?

How can so many think he is doing well on terrorism???

[AlCzervik]

23. i'm sad to say...yes people are that stupid.

[Zorra]

9. 4 polls, including CBS, from Nov. 1, 2000:

Kerry will win, way too many more Dems than republicans this year.

Bush Gore


CNN/USA Today/Gallup 47% 43%

ABC/Washington Post 49 45

MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby 45 42

CBS News 44 43

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/02/tracking.poll/

[wryter2000]

10. Hokey smoke

He and O'Really are going to be looking for work soon! :bounce:

[barb162]

11. that would be lovely

[Teaser]

12. Oh Yes my B$tches...

we are going to win.
Mars, Bitches. Mars.

[0007]

13. Hmmmmm

"The horserace numbers are eyed most suspiciously; Abromowitz notes that in the last week of the 2000 campaign, there were 43 polls. Mr. Bush was leading in 39. The next week, Al Gore won the popular vote."

[yardwork]

16. How can the same people who dislike chimp say they'll vote for him?

It doesn't make sense. Chimp's approval ratings are in the low 40s, but 47% of respondents plan to vote for him anyway? No way, I say.

[johnnyrocket]

18. There is a scary segment who actually think Kerry is bad...

so bad, that they'll continue with the wars, poverty, bullshit, and radicalism of BushCo instead of going with Kerry, somehow a meme was drilled into their head that he's bad.

[UCLA Dem]

20. yes, because (they think) Kerry is a moral degenerate

and they'd rather see kids die than (pardon my profanity, its meant for affect) let the fags marry. Idiots.

[struggle4progress]

17. <snip> In a break with tradition, The Tampa Tribune, a Republican ...

... standard-bearer for decades, refused Sunday to endorse anyone for president for the first time since 1964. <snip>

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=173463

[UCLA Dem]

19. isn't that the same with every election with an incumbent?

Its more a referendum on their record as president than the challenger's. If the people hate the president, the challenger wins and visa versa.

Thats bad news for Shrub. Incumbents don't get back in office with approval #'s in the low 40's.

As JK said, "Like Father like Son, one term and you're done!"

[goforit]

24. I can not believe Bush is ahead.... with a job approval of the low 40s

Republicans in my area haven't even put their signs
out.
They always do.

I don't think they like Bush at all.

[dolstein]

25. Butbutbutbut . . .Bush is so likable!!! Kerry is aloof!!! Er . . . .

Dammit, where did I put those talking points . . .

[ramapo]

26. Makes no sense

That means people disapprove of the job he is doing but will go ahead and reward him with their vote. Kerry is that hated that people would rather of four more years of this yahoo? I just don't buy it. If it is true then I will basically write this country off as a lost cause.