WSJ: Bush and Kerry Deadlock Among Likely Voters

[question everything]

Bush and Kerry Deadlock Among Likely Voters

By JOHN HARWOOD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 20, 2004

(snip)

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, which has the two men tied at 48% apiece among likely voters, indicates Mr. Kerry's solid debate performances have helped him inch toward key objectives: building voter confidence in his ability to be commander in chief; narrowing the gap with President Bush on handling terrorism; and riding a powerful edge on the twin domestic concerns of jobs and health care. In the 12 swing states where electoral votes will likely prove decisive, he leads Mr. Bush by six percentage points.

The survey also shows President Bush making headway on crucial goals. The Republican incumbent has punched through with his homestretch message of ultimate success in Iraq, exploited his advantage over Mr. Kerry on strength, consistency and likability, and pushed his approval rating up to 49% from 47% last month, nearly reaching the 50% threshold at which incumbents usually survive.

(snip)

Indeed, it remains a race so stubbornly tight that even meticulous opinion polling will have trouble identifying a decisive shift. The Journal/NBC poll of 1,004 registered voters, conducted Oct. 16-18, has a 3.1-percentage-point margin of error that exceeds Mr. Bush's 48%-46% edge. The error margin among the slightly smaller group of likely voters is 3.4 percentage points; among the still-smaller subset of respondents from the 12 swing states, it is 6.2 percentage points.

(snip)

The Kerry campaign had hoped to begin pulling ahead with their candidate's well-reviewed performances in three debates with Mr. Bush. And, in fact, the Journal/NBC poll shows that Mr. Kerry benefited handsomely: 33% of voters said the debates made them more likely to back the Democratic candidate, compared with 17% who said the same of Mr. Bush. That dwarfs the seven-percentage-point edge Mr. Bush enjoyed over Al Gore after their 2000 debates, which helped the then-Texas governor win the White House. In another measure of momentum for the Democratic challenger, 38% of voters say they have read or heard something favorable about Mr. Kerry during the past couple of weeks, compared with 31% who say that of the incumbent.

(snip)

Moreover, the president's repeated invocations of progress in Iraq appear to be boosting optimism, notwithstanding continued violence there; a 47%-40% plurality predicts the Iraq engagement will end in victory rather than defeat. So have his warnings of the risk of a potential Kerry administration. By 29%-16%, voters say terrorists are more likely to strike if Mr. Kerry were elected; by 30%-20%, voters say a Bush victory would make another terror strike here less likely.

(snip)

Write to John Harwood at [e-mail]

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB109823078678950089,00.html

[StupidFOX]

1. Happy Dance!!

All signs point to Kerry win.

[kerryin2004]

2. I am so tired of polls

Can we just get this election over with already?

[question everything]

5. My sentiments, too. However, the elections are still two weeks away

and we need this kind of news to energize the troops and the voters. Had the polls shown Bush ahead, I am afraid that many would just give up and won't even bother to vote.

[leesa]

3. You wish a**holes! Kiss your free ride goodbye ,you greedy, unethical

fucks.

[Nicholas_J]

4. Good

given all of the figures and trendis in voting, a Republican running must maintain at least solid three point lead in order to win against a democratic candidate, given the percentage of cross party voting exptected, and the percentage of voters expected to vote.

Indications from the early voting in Florida so far are that the turnout is going to be much higher than in the 2000 election. Far more than the usual 50 percent of registered voters are being projected, and so far, the local voters registration offices in Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Miami and Fort Lauderdale are reporting that three times as many people have shown up to vote early thaan anticipated, leading to the conclusion that voter turnout will be the highest in decades.

Early voting is expected to favor democrats, as extreme efforts are being made to prevent the kind of voter fraud that occured in 2000.

In my county alone, over 100 attorneys are available in order to make sure than no voter intimidation or fraud occurs, Already several cases of voters being given forms with candidate already selected have been caught (guess the selection kids).

If you live in Florida, you can get rid of the negative attitute that the REpukes will cheat their way into winning Florida. Had no cheating occured in 2000 Gore would have won Florida by over 50,000 votes. Even if they get by with some cheating this time, they eill not be able to cheat enough to get rid of enough voets to overcome the numerical superiority of democrats in Florida.

From my own phone banking, it is obvious that at least in Florida, the percentage of dems who will vote for Bush is going to be very very low. Probably the lowest in the country.

[AndyTiedye]

6. How Do Attorneys Protect Against

?
      We Make Democracy DIE

[crossroads]

7. Anybody counting voters living abroad?

These voters who know how everyone in the world hates Bush will certainly vote for Kerry in masse...
:dem: