The Iran Problem Awaiting Bush or Kerry

[seemslikeadream]

Resolving Iraq may be easy compared with the challenge of its neighbor's nuclear program
By TONY KARON

Military Options

If the position of the U.S. and also Israel is that an Iranian nuclear weapons capability is intolerable, either may be inclined to take preemptive military action — as Israel did in its 1981 air strike on Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor at Osirak. To be effective, however, a pinpoint strike requires intelligence on the precise location of all of the relevant nuclear facilities, some of which are believed to be hidden in hardened, camouflaged urban locations. It would also require preparation for the likelihood that Iran would likely respond with missile and guerrilla attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, and via its Hezbollah proxy on Israel.

But bombing suspected nuclear facilities only kicks the can down the road. Once the decision is made to use military force, the inclination may be to finish the regime — if only as a hedge against the resumption of nuclear activity in more clandestine, and more aggressive forms, as well as ongoing retaliation.

Osirak highlights the problem left by even a successful pinpoint strike — ten years later, UN inspectors found that Iraq had been far further along the road to building nuclear weapons than anyone had anticipated. The preemptive strike had simply forced it to diversify and conceal its methods.

If regime-change was the goal of military action, of course, the operation would require far more troops than the U.S. currently has in Iraq. Iran, after all, is three times the size, and its people can be expected to be no more welcoming of an occupation than the Iraqis are. Tehran will be encouraged by the extent to which Iraq has stretched U.S. combat capability. Particularly to the extent that it remains tied down in Iraq, it's hard to imagine Washington finding the resources to mount a full-blown invasion and occupation of Iran, and fewer allies than it has in Iraq.

more
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,726557,00.html

[DuctapeFatwa]

1. Even worse, many in Iran believe that their nation, its resources, and

its people are not the property of the United States at all.

[righteous1]

2. Internal uprising

The best and cleanest way is to support both financially and logistically the opposition to foster an internal uprising

[Artemis Bunyon]

3. If I were Iran, I would offer to stop seeking nuclear arms...

...as soon as Israel

a) admitted they had their own nukes
b) opened up their nuke stockpile to international scrutiny
c) got rid of them

Then and only then would I back down.

And if I were Kerry, I would tell the world that if America gets hit by a single nuclear weapon, we will launch our entire arsenal and bring everybody on the planet back to Square One.

[MrPrax]

4. That's in a NUTshell, why...

"if America gets hit by a single nuclear weapon, we will launch our entire arsenal and bring everybody on the planet back to Square One."

That's in a NUTshell, why everyone hates Americans.

[seemslikeadream]

5. A Bush pre-election strike on Iran 'imminent'

October 20, 2004

A Bush pre-election strike on Iran 'imminent'

White House insider report "October Surprise" imminent
By Wayne Madsen

According to White House and Washington Beltway insiders, the Bush administration, worried that it could lose the presidential election to Senator John F. Kerry, has initiated plans to launch a military strike on Iran's top Islamic leadership, its nuclear reactor at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf, and key nuclear targets throughout the country, including the main underground research site at Natanz in central Iran and another in Isfahan. Targets of the planned U.S. attack reportedly include mosques in Tehran, Qom, and Isfahan known by the U.S. to headquarter Iran's top mullahs.

The Iran attack plan was reportedly drawn up after internal polling indicated that if the Bush administration launched a so-called anti-terrorist attack on Iran some two weeks before the election, Bush would be assured of a landslide win against Kerry. Reports of a pre-emptive strike on Iran come amid concerns by a number of political observers that the Bush administration would concoct an "October Surprise" to influence the outcome of the presidential election.

According to White House sources, the USS John F. Kennedy was deployed to the Arabian Sea to coordinate the attack on Iran. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld discussed the Kennedy's role in the planned attack on Iran when he visited the ship in the Arabian Sea on October 9. Rumsfeld and defense ministers of U.S. coalition partners, including those of Albania, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Iraq, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Mongolia, Poland, Qatar, Romania, and Ukraine briefly discussed a very "top level" view of potential dual-track military operations in Iran and Iraq in a special "war room" set up on board the aircraft carrier. America's primary ally in Iraq, the United Kingdom, did not attend the planning session because it reportedly disagrees with a military strike on Iran. London also suspects the U.S. wants to move British troops from Basra in southern Iraq to the Baghdad area to help put down an expected surge in Sh'ia violence in Sadr City and other Sh'ia areas in central Iraq when the U.S. attacks Iran as well as clear the way for a U.S. military strike across the Iraqi-Iranian border aimed at securing the huge Iranian oil installations in Abadan. U.S. allies South Korea, Australia, Kuwait, Jordan, Italy, Netherlands, and Japan were also left out of the USS John F. Kennedy planning discussions because of their reported opposition to any strike on Iran.

In addition, Israel has been supplied by the United States with 500 "bunker buster" bombs. According to White House sources, the Israeli Air Force will attack Iran's nuclear facility at Bushehr with the U.S. bunker busters.The joint U.S.-Israeli pre-emptive military move against Iran reportedly was crafted by the same neo-conservative grouping in the Pentagon and Vice President Dick Cheney's office that engineered the invasion of Iraq.

~~~~~~~~

Wayne Madsen is a Washington, DC-based investigative journalist and columnist. He served in the National Security Council (NSA) during the Reagan Administration and wrote the introduction to Forbidden Truth. He is the co-author, with john Stanton of "America's Nightmare: The Presidency of George Bush II." His forthcoming book is titled: "jaded Tasks: Big Oil, Black Ops, and Brass Plates." Madsen can be reached at [e-mail]

http://www.lebanonwire.com/0410/04102002LW.asp

Defense Chief Pays Visit to USS John F. Kennedy
Story Number: NNS041012-02
Release Date: 10/12/2004 11:24:00 AM

By Journalist 1st Class Kayla Thompson, USS John F. Kennedy Public Affairs

ABOARD USS JOHN F. KENNEDY (NNS) -- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and the ministers of defense from 18 coalition countries made a stop Oct. 9 aboard USS John F. Kennedy (CV 67), currently deployed to the Arabian Gulf in support of the global war on terrorism.

Rumsfeld and guests took a whirlwind tour of the ship and participated in a video teleconference with a key military component in Baghdad. Rumsfeld then met with the crew of Kennedy in the ship’s hangar bay.

“It is a privilege to have Secretary Rumsfeld and his guests on board,” said Capt. Dennis FitzPatrick, commanding officer of Kennedy. “A former naval aviator, he understands firsthand how much hard work by all of you goes into successfully accomplishing our mission.”

After Rumsfeld was presented with a Kennedy ball cap, making him a member of the crew, Rumsfeld spoke to the Sailors of Kennedy.

“The first time I was aboard a carrier was for the commissioning of USS Hollandia in 1943. I was 10 years old, and my father was the hangar deck officer," Rumsfeld said. "Many years later, I had the privilege of landing aboard another carrier, USS Monterey (CVL 26), this time as a pilot. So it is indeed a personal privilege for this son of a Navy man and an old broken down naval aviator himself, to be with you here on this great day."
more
http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=15478

[Kool Kitty]

6. Sounds like an "October Surprise" to me.

I was listening to AAR and they mentioned some report that is to come out about October 25 regarding Iran. The guest, I think it was Bill from "Liberal Oasis" said that what he envisioned was Bush saying that the report had come out and the planes were already on their way to Iran. Sounds plausible, given the tone of this administration.