WP: Religious Leaders Ahead in Iraq Poll

[kskiska]

U.S.-Supported Government Losing Ground

Friday, October 22, 2004; Page A01

Leaders of Iraq's religious parties have emerged as the country's most popular politicians and would win the largest share of votes if an election were held today, while the U.S.-backed government of interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is losing serious ground, according to a U.S.-financed poll by the International Republican Institute.

More than 45 percent of Iraqis also believe that their country is heading in the wrong direction, and 41 percent say it is moving in the right direction.

Within the Bush administration, a victory by Iraq's religious parties is viewed as the worst-case scenario. Washington has hoped that Allawi and the current team, which was selected by U.S. and U.N. envoys, would win or do well in Iraq's first democratic election, in January. U.S. officials believe a secular government led by moderates is critical, in part because the new government will oversee writing a new Iraqi constitution.

"The picture it paints is that, after all the blood and treasure we've spent and despite the occupation's democracy efforts, we're in a position now that the moderates would not win if an election were held today," said a U.S. official who requested anonymity because the poll has not been released.

more…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52674-2004Oct21.html

[knowbody0]

1. today's chance is better than tomorow's

[JolietDem]

11. Fundies Suck

The Catholic Church and the Christian Coalition are looking at those poll numbers greedily...these year let's send the religious right to bed without their supper

[xray s]

2. hhmmmm

And Bush said the "right track" poll numbers in Iraq were better than in the US.

That says it all.

[dave502d]

3. That means if Bush wins.

They won't have election in January

[Jacobin]

4. Ya mean like an Islamic Fundamentalist?

Ya mean that bad ole secular dictator we put in jail who didn't truck with Islamic fundamentalists.......uh, ....um......ya mean Iraq might elect someone who might, um... like those guys who like Osama?.....uhm.....um.... gulp...

[0007]

20. ....I think that is what they're trying to say. And what if ....?

[Nicholas_J]

5. This is what is behind the turining in of weapons by the Shia Militia

And Bush's recent statements in an AP interview about accepting an elected fundamentalist Islamic Government in Iraq. Ayatollah Sistani and Ayatollah Muqtada have all given orders to Shi'ites to register to vote and they have in massive numbers. The religious fundamentalists have all decided to do an end run around Bush and will fight fire with fire. If they cant win through the Mahdi Army, they will simply elect themselves around Bush's plans for Iraq.

With the United Nations monitoring the vote, it will be very difficult for Bush selected candidate to win the election.

It is likely that they will first vote a fundamentalist government in and then eventually they will align with Iran. It is not out of the question that once a religious government is in power, they will align with the political arms of Hamas and Hezbollah, and even possible that they will form a more covert alignnment with Al Qaeda, giving Bin Laden a hand in the government.l

[NEOBuckeye]

6. And therein lies the irony in Bush's so-called "War on Terror"

Wasn't invading Iraq supposed to prevent just this sort of thing from happening? Hussein may be gone, but now, so is the relatively benign Iraq that posed no real genuine to Middle Eastern stability since Bush Sr's Gulf War. In Hussein's place are the Islamic fundamentalist leaders, who are proving themselves to be far more politically savvy, able to form and execute new strategies and be far more adaptable than the Bush Administration ever considered that they might be. A new fundamentalist government elected to power by Iraqis would serve as a devestating blow to Bush's plans for Iraq. The force of the impact could be multiplied many times if Bush loses (again) on November 2.

[Voltaire99]

7. It wasn't hard for the US to game the vote in Afghanistan last week.

Why would it be any harder in Iraq?

[Carolab]

8. BECAUSE

Sistani and Muqtada aren't going to roll over, that's why

[troublemaker]

9. Damn! Their right-track wrong-track numbers are STILL better than ours

Our wrong-track is about 55% these days.

[daleo]

10. The "mortar polls" weren't in Allawi's favor today either

A couple landed a few hundred meters away from his party in Mosul today, if I recall correctly.

[jody]

12. Letter below on topic in Alabama's "Birmingham Post Herald", 6 Oct 04.

http://www.postherald.com/co100604.shtml
Ignore history

President Bush's efforts to establish a democratic government in Iraq ignore the conditions that existed in the Middle East before Muhammad established the Islamic religion in the seventh century CE.

As one raised and educated in the United States, I don't pretend to know the origin and history of Islam; however, it appears that chaos existed before Muhammad established a government based on religious principles heavily dependent on the Old and New Testament and later recorded in the Koran.

Perhaps the Prophet knew something we Westerners ignore, governments of the Middle East need the complete backing of religious leaders from all Muslim factions if they hope to succeed. If that's true, and 14 centuries of history support that observation, then President Bush needs to give up his grandiose dream of establishing a democratic government in Iraq and to Christianize Iraqis. Instead, he needs to work with Muslim religious leaders to establish a stable government.

If Bush doesn't do that, then he could achieve the most catastrophic success of any president.

[maddezmom]

13. related headline: U.S., Iraqi Forces Detain Sunni Muslim Cleric

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=586&ncid=586&e=2&u=/nm/20041022/wl_nm/iraq_cleric_arrest_dc

[KansDem]

14. Uh-oh! Time to get Diebold in there...and fast! (eom)

[rucky]

18. Funny how the Iraqis have less tolerance for fixed elections...

than Americans do.

[je11]

15. but do they poll those with only cell phones? /nm

curious

[w4rma]

16. I said this would happen *before* the invasion. It was one of my primary

reasons for opposing this inevitable failure.

"Thus, a victorious army always seeks battle after his plans indicate that victory is possible under them, whereas an army destined to defeat fights in the hope of winning but without any planning." - Sun Tzu's Art of War

[Ohio rules]

17. Sistani wants the Shia majority to show up and vote

As of yet he hasn't backed any choice for president.

[gulliver]

19. This blows a gaping hole in Team Bush's story.

I hope Kerry pounds on this one. Now the January elections in Iraq -- if they happen at all -- are headed for catastrophe. The polls show Iraq turning into Iran Heights.