Poll: Kerry Widens Lead Over Bush In Pa.

[unfrigginreal]

HARRISBURG, Pa. -- Sen. John Kerry has widened his lead over President Bush in Pennsylvania since the final presidential debate, as more people cite the economy as the most important campaign issue, according to a new independent poll released Friday.

Among 841 likely voters surveyed by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, including voters who have made up their minds and those who said they were leaning toward one candidate, the poll found 51 percent backed Kerry and 46 percent favored Bush. Four percent were undecided.

In a larger sample of 1,185 registered voters, 47 percent supported Kerry, the Democratic candidate, 41 percent favored the Republican incumbent and 10 percent were undecided. On Thursday, an Associated Press national poll showed Bush and Kerry locked in a tie for the national popular vote, as a chunk of voters vacillate between their desire for change and their doubts about the alternative. In the national survey of 976 likely voters, Democrats Kerry and Sen. John Edwards had 49 percent, compared to 46 percent for Republicans Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. That's within the margin of error for the poll conducted Oct. 18-20. There has been little or no change since the first debate, when an uneven performance cost Bush the lead over Kerry. In the AP national poll, Bush's strength continued to be a perception by many voters that he is better qualified to protect the country. A majority considered Kerry indecisive, less solid on national security. Kerry's strengths were Bush's weaknesses - most voters believed the country was on the wrong track and disapproved of the incumbent's handling of the economy, domestic affairs and Iraq. In a Quinnipiac poll on Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Arlen Specter maintains a substantial lead over his Democratic opponent, Rep. Joe Hoeffel, in a three-way race that includes Constitution Party candidate Jim Clymer.

Among likely voters, the split was 51 percent for Specter, 36 percent for Hoeffel, 6 percent for Clymer and 7 percent undecided. Among registered voters, 49 percent favored Specter, 33 percent backed Hoeffel, 5 percent supported Clymer and 13 percent were undecided.

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/3841670/detail.html

[bluestateguy]

1. I think Kerry will be OK in Penn.

I think. Still, campaign visits and ads must continue full steam. Bush can win without it, Kerry cannot!

[bleedingheart]

2. It's the wallet!

[NeoConsSuck]

3. Heard this news on my right wing CBS affilated

radio station this morning. The announcer didn't sound too happy reporting it :)

[mom cat]

4. Moveon is calling "undecided" voters in a number of states and you

still can volunteer.:smoke: I have been calling in Pennsylvania and among the "undecideds" that I contacted, ALL of the "leaners" were for Kerry - Edwards.:bounce::toast::bounce: Economy and health-care were the issues they mentioned the most.

Thanks for your post about the new polls.:yourock: All of our efforts are combining into an unstoppable force for positive change.:kick:

[PCIntern]

5. I think we're gonna be OK here

I wish Hoeffel was running a better campaign but you never know here in PA...Klenk came within 6 pts of beating Rick the Saint last time with no campaign at all.

[byronm]

6. PA is Kerry Country

But don't let that keep you from working, volunteering and being pro-active.

Conservative base is VERY strong in the outlying towns - Don't let them outnumber the polls!

I did have a smile on my face heading down 896 to work today - only saw one Bush sign on my 55 mile drive to work :) This is from ubber conservative Lancaster to the more progressive wilmington de.

[demokatgurrl]

10. You're lucky- every day on the highway near Philly

I drive past a HUGE billboard that says "God Bless the United States of America and George W. Bush".:puke:

[lakemonster11]

32. I saw that!

I was in Philadelphia a few weeks ago (when Kerry was speaking at UPenn, actually) and, on my way to the airport at the end of the weekend, I saw "God Bless the United States of America and George W. Bush"!

:puke:

But I still had my bilingual "Our Values Aren't His Values" poster that some Kerry activist had handed me earlier in the day, with its lovely chart comparing Bush and Kerry on the back, so I just clung onto that.

[righteous1]

7. Poll

Has Mason/Dixon done a poll here lately, they were the most accurate in 2000

[unfrigginreal]

8. Evidence of Mason-Dixons accuracy in 2000, please.

[righteous1]

11. Mason Dixon

Here are just a few from 2000 MN G44% 41% N8% U6% - G47.9% B45.5% N5.2% MO B45% G44% N4% U6% - B50.4% G47.1% N1.6% NV B47% G44% N2% -B49.8 G46.2% N2.5% NM B45% G45% N4% U5% - G47.9% B47.8% N3.6% OH B46% G40% N5% - B50% G46.4% N2.5% PA G48% B45% N2% U5% - G50.6% B46.4% N2.1%

[unfrigginreal]

14. Do you have a link? Are those numbers from 2 weeks out or final numbers?

Thanks

[righteous1]

16. Numbers

The numbers are the final predictions 7-14 days out then the actuals...no link just have collected some of these from various blogs and pages

[demokatgurrl]

9. Agree- Hoeffel must be running a poor campaign-

Specter almost lost in 1992 to an unknown, inexperienced woman named Lynn Yeakel. Part of that was probably Anita Hill backlash but still, Hoeffel is smart, competent and an all around nice guy. I kind of wish he'd waited and run against Santorum.

[spinbaby]

13. I think he'll do better than expected

"Among likely voters, the split was 51 percent for Specter, 36 percent for Hoeffel, 6 percent for Clymer and 7 percent undecided. Among registered voters, 49 percent favored Specter, 33 percent backed Hoeffel, 5 percent supported Clymer and 13 percent were undecided."

I expect that Specter will win but my feeling is that he'll win by an uncomfortably small margin. People are just beginning to pay attention to this race and Clymer has become a very visible candidate who's going to snatch a good chunk of the vote from Specter. My hope is that this election will set Hoeffel up with some name recognition to run against Santorum.

[demokatgurrl]

27. I predict Hoeffel gets a job in the adminstration-

he really took a hit for the party on this one.

[SquireJons]

15. Maybe a comeback for republican moderates?

A group to which Specter is sometimes affiliated...

As for running against Santorum, perhaps the name recognition gained from this election will help. It certainly helped our Governor Mark Warner here in Virginia. He ran and lost against John Warner, but then came back and won the election for Governor two years later.

[demokatgurrl]

28. You had Mark Warner vs. John Warner? weird. n/t

[gratuitous]

12. Hasn't Bush been visiting PA a lot lately?

Kerry's numbers seem to go up everywhere folks get a good close-up look at Chimpy.

[PaDUer]

17. * was in Scranton/Wilkes Barre, PA

today...he was at the Wachovia arena...made his usual BS speech which was broadcasted live. I was trying to see if he was wired but he did NOT turn to see...Wonder if the people sitting in the arena was able to see that box on his back? This was another "invite only" event, however, a lot of people here just go to "see" the current pResident.

Elizabeth Edwards is here also today and PSU, Worthington Campus..this was not broadcasted live.
Another thing, an article in our local paper said that Kerry/Edwards might return to this area before election day.

[JackDragna]

18. Thank God.

Pennsylvania is a must-win for our side. Let's hope the trend there is indicative of what's going on in the region..ie, Ohio will go to Kerry as well.

[CBHagman]

19. Bush has been there so often, he might as well buy a house.

NPR said Bush made his 41st trip to Pennsylvania today. I think that's more often than D.C. sees him...

[Sin]

20. Its Kerry

Here in Schuylkill county I think its Kerry lots of Kerry Edwards bumper stickers Heck i even walked into our brand new Cabela's with a shirt that has * Jr and Daddy's picture on it with Dumb and dumber under there respective pictures.
And I got more compliment's for that shirt there from the staff and people passing by then any were else I go with it (well besides our local farmers market) then any were else + 2 offers to buy it.
Darth Dick visited out town a few months back with the typical sign your loyalty oath crowed there. there was a good few people protesting when he showed.
Mind you we do have are fair share re-pukes laying about but I guess thats to be expected.Good to hear Kerry beating back the knuckle dagger's:)

[maddezmom]

21. and Rep Greenwood is on CNN saying the * internal polls show a * win

even though the internals are 1 point below Kerry. This guy is on crack or in denial.

[jn2375]

22. Not going to happen!!!! Spin Spin Spin Pa is Kerry's

[jn2375]

23. Clinton's coming here to Philadelphia, media coverage will be huge

can't wait till Monday This is Clintons first campaign appearance
the media coverage will be outstanding!!!!

[fugop]

25. Seal the deal

Clinton will seal Pa. for Kerry.

[maddezmom]

24. and hopefully Ohio, too!!!!

:)

[GOPBasher]

26. And even better news: I don't think there's any way the GOP can cheat here

Does PA use a lot of electronic voting machines? If not, there isn't much they can do. They'll lose for sure.

[durablend]

29. Pennsylvania voting machines...

All over the map, between stone age machines to the current high tech stuff. I think there's 7 or 8 different voting systems in use all over the state. There's a map somewhere which shows which county uses which machine but I don't have time to pull up a link right now.

[demokatgurrl]

30. We have electronic, have for a while

I'm in a very Democratic suburb of Philly. I will be involved in an informal vote count and will surely not sleep at all. I moved here from Philly 3 years ago- when I lived in Philly we had the "old reliable" mechanical lever machines. I kind of think they're better.

[durablend]

34. Pennsylvania voting machines (map/link)

Found the link

http://www.hava.state.pa.us/hava/cwp/view.asp?a=1188&q=442396&votingNav=|

I'm assuming these are the ones we have...any opinions on it's vulnerability?

http://www.hava.state.pa.us/hava/cwp/view.asp?a=1188&q=443138

[CWebster]

31. By the naked eye

Bush-Cheney signs pretty much blanket the more affluent regions in these parts, while Kerry-Edwards signs dominate elsewhere. This would indicate a fundamental class issue, with the wealthy looking to their own greedy self-interest. And the wealthy always vote- if not downright pay for access; the challenge for the Democrats is getting out the vote. To do this they must present themselves as the alternative to Bush since centrist policy holds little appeal by comparison.

Unfortunately, while Bush panders to the elites, who have monopolized the mouthpiece of the media as the common voice, his presentation is one of an everyday jerk. Kerry, by comparison, has the stereotypical affectations of class, but would be more likely to be a traitor to his own class, while Bush is a faithful servant of his.

[demokatgurrl]

39. Not exactly- the Main LIne, affluent suburb of Philly

is majority Democratic. Kerry signs everywhere, few Bush signs.

[byronm]

40. not here...

In southeast PA the Bush/Chenney usually are in the lower/middle class.. in the richer burbs i see more Kerry signs.

Alot of Kerry supporters enjoy the environment, enjoy society (arts, music, heritage, and differences of cultures and views - i.e. Progressive people), would rather be represented through taxes and like someone who stands up for such basic human needs.

I'm doing a local showing of Going up river - that movie gives a good picture of how Kerry can move an entire company with respect, dignity and honesty.

[robbedvoter]

33. Everywhere W travels, his numbers tank. happy trails, stupid!

His entire campaign is playing the same crowd over and over - so teevee covers it. Everyone else gets creeped out.

[bagnana]

35. maybe that's why they have him going to New Jersey

because they don't want him to lower his numbers by showing up in the real battleground states.

[Sinnerman]

37. KERRY HAS PA IN THE BAG

[amandabeech]

36. Here in Cumberland County (western 'burbs of Harrisburg)

there are lots of signs for the local state reps and sens, but most of those lawns do not have a Bush/Cheney sign. More Kerry/Edwards signs keep popping up every day. This is a heavily repug area and I think that it is a social stigma in some circles to support the Dems, so these are brave people.

[coreystone]

38. My parents are from Washington/Burgettstown PA (SW PA - Pittsburgh)...

area of PA. They moved to Vermont in 1949 a year before I was born. I would very much for the state of "Penn's Woods" to fly right past Bush - IN A BIG ZOOM!

:kick: