STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 22 October

[ozymandius]

Friday October 22, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 90
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 11
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 315 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 4 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1065
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 21, 2004

Dow... 9,865.76 -21.17 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq... 1,953.62 +20.65 (+1.07%)
S&P 500... 1,106.49 +2.83 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.00% +0.01 (+0.15%)
Gold future... 425.60 +0.60 (+0.14%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.13 Change +0.11 (+0.13%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1098448210-9e32d306-23901

Forex - Dollar remains on backfoot after Fed officials voice concerns

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar remained steady but near eight-month lows against the euro in the wake of comments from a pair of leading US Federal Reserve officials despite some stronger-than-expected US data

Though yesterday's weekly jobless claims and the monthly Philadelphia Fed index provided some encouraging economic signs, the negative talk from the Fed officials pushed the dollar back for the sixth day running

"The dollar wasn't helped by comments from Fed Governor Ben Bernanke who described the recent rise in oil prices as a 'significant shock' to the economy," said UBS currency strategist Mansoor Mohi-uddin

In addition, Fed President Janet Yellen observed that the dollar had remained relatively high despite the US's hefty trade deficit. "Yellen's comments follow those from (Fed president) Robert McTeer on Oct 7 that a shortfall in the current account will lead to a weaker dollar," said Clyde Wardle, a currency strategist at HSBC USA

The US currency has been falling since the end of last week on growing concerns about the funding of both the trade and budget deficits, especially at a time of oil prices, and concerns that a victory for John Kerry in the US presidential election may lead to more protectionist economic policies

...more...

I just watched the chart spike downward to 85.87 and back up to its current 86.13 - all within a 4 minute period. Some rather obvious central bank buying? We'll have to see where it goes today. I have no clue :shrug:

Great 'toon, Ozy :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

41. Made a new low around 1:45 pm of 85.86 before maiking a little bounce

to 85.90 Looks like the Loonie's getting the boost instead of gold this time. Look at that bird fly.

[UpInArms]

2. Are the Greenbergs getting a black eye?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38282.2205902778-824341628&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

5:17am 10/22/04
Marsh&McLennan outside directors mull CEO going - WSJ (MMC) By Emily Church
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Some of the 10 outside directors at insurer Marsh & McLennan (MCC) have held talks with New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and considering whether Chief Executive Jeffrey W. Greenberg should step aside, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed sources. Spitzer's office sued Marsh last week on allegations of bid-rigging. The outside directors have taken over oversight of an investigation by the company's outside lawyers, the report said.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6582300

Marsh & McLennan CEO May Be Ousted - WSJ
Fri Oct 22, 2004 08:08 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The outside directors of Marsh & McLennan (MMC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) have talked to New York's attorney general about having its chief executive step aside amid a probe into its business practices, the Wall Street Journal said on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter, said that the 10 outside directors on the 16-member board met on Thursday to discuss the probe. The discussions included the fate of CEO Jeffrey Greenberg, it said.

A representative of Marsh & McLennan, the world's largest insurance broker, was not immediately available to comment.

Last week, New York state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer announced a lawsuit against Marsh, accusing it of steering clients to insurers with whom it had payoff agreements.

Questions about Greenberg's future at the company have cropped up in recent days, with investors wondering why Greenberg or other senior managers have done little to publicly defend its corporate image.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Something BIG this way comes - WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

CHART FISSURES SUGGEST SOMETHING BIG IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN

Technical analysis is a game of cold calculations, not feelings and emotions. So if I were to tell you that something big in the stock market is about to occur because I feel it in my bones, it wouldn’t be the product of a technician – it would just be stray intuition. Yet there have been many fissures occurring in many technical charts over the last few weeks that may provide substantiation for my premonition. I don’t know what it is specifically, but it involves lots of debt. I feel it in my bones - something big is about to happen.

Fannie Mae

Following is a one-year chart of Fannie Mae. It dropped on that “little corruption thing,” and then recovered on relatively low trading volume. Now it is heading down again with a loss of momentum and a pick up in volume. Something big is about to happen.

-cut-

A leader in the homebuilder revolution – Pulte Homes - overestimates market prices in Las Vegas and then finds that buyers under contract are not coming to settlement. The homebuilder then lowers prices, including discounts for buyers under contract, and makes them sign a contract certifying that they are owner-occupying and not speculating for a price rise and quick turnover. The builder insures investors that this is just a local problem that should not impact other builders. Yet the stock drops and decisively breaks an uptrend that is over a year old.

-cut-

Something big is about to happen.

Eliot Spitzer is investigating the insurance industry. The stock is suggesting, “If you look, you will find.”



As a group, financial companies account for a disproportionate amount of the US corporate earnings. Yet in spite of a rallying bond market, the financials seem to be dropping precipitously. This is shown in the S&P percent bullish stocks (% with bullish point-and-figure charts). A leader of the last rally is suddenly lagging badly.

...much more and lotsa charts...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

12. Prudential: Google target $200 (Case in point?)

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/22/technology/google_target/index.htm

Brokerage cites 'blowout quarter', raises earnings targets for 2004 and 2005; stock rallies further.
October 22, 2004: 10:16 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Google stock rallied anew Friday morning after Prudential Securities raised its target for the stock to $200 from $130, citing a "blowout third quarter."

Prudential noted that net revenue had more than doubled in the latest quarter.

snip>

Google (Research) stock has nearly doubled since the No. 1 search engine went public in August at $85 a share.

snip>

And the stock continued to gain ground early Friday, touching $170 after topping $161 in after-hours trading Thursday.

[UpInArms]

4. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:16 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Still looks like a relatively flat start for the indices... Look for the blue chips to slightly outperform in the opening action.

08:52 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures trade continues to improve, and now suggests a slightly higher open for the cash market... Treasuries, conversely, have seen more selling across the curve as traders have sold into their recent strength.

08:22 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Looks like a flat to slightly lower open for the indices, as buyers remain put off by the prospect of higher oil prices (near $55/bbl) and several earnings misses (AMZN, SLB)... There are no economic reports today, so traders will focus primarily on earnings.
08:02 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Futures trade denotes a negative bias, which should translate into a negative start for the cash market... Traders are content to take profits from the tech sector's recent run following lackluster earnings reports from AMZN, MSFT, and BRCM... A number of companies, such as XLNX, issued softer than expected guidance following their reports.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1476.40. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the aforementioned resistance level would open the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 1500.50 later this year. Closes below last week's low crossing at 1419 would confirm a breakout below the August-September uptrend line thereby signaling that a double top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 1.0 pts. at 1474.50 as of 5:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rebound but remains above the 50% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 1102.60. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below September's low crossing at 1101.60 would open the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 1092.90 later this month. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1110.46 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was down 1.20 pts. at 1106.50 as of 5:55 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[ozymandius]

5. casino's open

9:36
Dow 9,867.75 +1.99 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,948.53 -5.09 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,106.76 +0.27 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.016% +0.019
NYSE Volume 37,513,000
Nasdaq Volume 91,181,000

I have to run out for a couple of hours. Have fun!

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

6. Credit protection costs rise on Spitzer worries

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/386d1e2e-2392-11d9-aee5-00000e2511c8.html

The cost of credit protection on US and European insurance companies is soaring as investors start to worry about the financial ramifications of Eliot Spitzer's probe into industry abuses.

Credit default swaps on insurance companies have widened as much as 30 basis points on some companies over the week, amid concerns that an investigation into the industry initiated by the New York attorney-general could damage the creditworthiness of companies and change the way they do business.

snip>

Insurers' high credit ratings make them attractive counterparties in credit default swap transactions. Insurers are the biggest sellers of credit protection after banks, with some $213bn (€169bn) in net notional exposure at the end of 2003, according to Fitch Ratings.

snip>

However, some investors are more sceptical. Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor, closed down derivatives dealer Gen Re Securities after buying Gen Re, judging it to be “dangerous”.

A company trying to meet demand for cash collateral after being downgraded can be thrown into a “liquidity crisis”, Mr Buffett warned investors in Berkshire Hathaway's 2002 annual report.

more...

[54anickel]

7. Lay's double whammy has roots in S&L scandal

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2860172

Sometimes the scandals of the past roost in the present. Ken Lay, the fallen Enron chairman, will not only get the day in court he so desperately sought, he'll get two.

Judge Sim Lake ruled this week that Lay should have one with his Enron cronies, and one by himself on bank fraud charges unrelated to the energy trader's collapse.

The possibility of dual trials means that while Lay has borne the brunt of public anger over Enron's failure, he may pay the price for the anger of the past as well.

The bank charges seem an obscure point in the overall transgressions that led to Enron's demise, but they bear the biggest potential wallop. They could add as much as 120 years to Lay's possible prison time if convicted. They also bear fines of as much as $4 million combined.

more...

[UpInArms]

8. 10:19 numbers and blather

Dow 9,849.84 -15.92 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,943.22 -10.40 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,105.61 -0.88 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.020% +0.023

NYSE Volume 232,755,000
Nasdaq Volume 392,387,000

10:00 ET Major indices hold to their previous levels as selling in tech remains persistent... Computer hardware, semiconductor, software, and disk drive have all traveled moderately lower and joined biotech in negative territory... The latter has been held back by selling in Gilead Sciences (GILD 34.04 -2.64) following its Q3 (Sept) earnings report last night and subsequent downgrade to Sell from Hold by Legg Mason this morning... Areas that have showed relative strength, though, have been more numerous and include brokerage, airline, retail, and cyclical... Advancers are outpacing decliners at the NYSE, whereas decliners are leading advancers at the Nasdaq... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1253/1100. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1124/1074.

09:40 ET A relatively uneventful opening for the equity market as investors lack conviction in either direction... The price of crude oil is back near $55/bbl, and a number of notable companies fell short of consensus estimates last night... Amazon.com (AMZN 36.33 -3.14), Broadcom (BRCM 28.64 -1.83), Microsoft (MSFT 28.13 -0.43), and Xilinx (XLNX 29.86 -0.51) all gave lackluster Q3 (Sept) reports that were followed up by softer than expected outlooks... Traders have thus booked profits from the tech sector's run - up over 2% over the past 2 days... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

[UpInArms]

9. Crude futures rise, head toward $55 in early NY trade

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38282.4210648148-824364339&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil futures climbed toward $55 a barrel in early New York trade with dwindling U.S. heating-oil supplies ahead of the winter season still a key concern. December crude is up 43 cents at $54.90 a barrel. November natural gas is also up, gaining 14.3 cents to $7.84 per million British thermal units.

[UpInArms]

13. Crude at $55.35 bbl

10:40am 10/22/04 CRUDE FUTURES TAP $55.35 HIGH, ANOTHER NEW RECORD

[UpInArms]

59. Crude futures close above $55 for first time ever in NY

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={55E66F5F-D19D-473D-BB94-E9F416B32046}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude prices closed above $55 a barrel for the first time ever on the New York futures exchange as winter heating fuel supplies remained a key concern. December crude closed at $55.17 a barrel, up 70 cents for the session, and up $1.20 for the week after an intraday high of $55.50. November heating oil climbed 1.49 cents to close at $1.5944, also a record high for futures.

[54anickel]

10. Is It Time to Stem Asia Deficits With a Weak Dollar?

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/22/business/22norris.html?oref=login

snip>

There is likely to be strong American pressure on much of Asia, not just China, to allow a major depreciation of the dollar. The details may be different depending on who wins the election, but the pressure will be there.

Such a ''weak dollar'' policy would raise the cost of imported goods, and thus hurt consumers. But the alternative is to see more and more American economic stimulus drain overseas as the trade deficit grows ever greater, making the eventual resolution that much more painful.

snip>

In the Bush administration, John W. Snow, the Treasury secretary, is always willing to declare, ''We support a strong dollar,'' as he did this week. But he also says he wants exchange rates to be determined by the market.

That does not happen in Asia. Instead, central banks buy Treasury securities by the bucketful to support the dollar. At the end of August, the combined holdings of Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore were $1.1 trillion, up 22 percent from the end of 2003. Since President Bush took office, they have added to their Treasury holdings at a pace of nearly half a billion dollars a day. Instead, the dollar's fall has mostly been against the euro. That is one reason Europe's export-led recovery has begun to weaken, with industrial production turning lower and trade surpluses narrowing.

If Mr. Bush gains a second term, he need only recall what his role model, Ronald Reagan, did. After cutting taxes in the first term and seeing the trade deficit rise to previously unimaginable levels, he engineered the Plaza accord in the first year of his second term. The dollar fell and the trade deficit gradually narrowed. It is time to consider such a policy again. And whoever is elected may want to get that process started sooner rather than later.

more...

[aneerkoinos]

20. What an idiot

Second Plaza accord? Get real, this time there's this little thing called single European currency, which wants its equal share of the loot or just to become the King, good riddens the old dead king. And the Chinese and Japanese have their own plans. And the PO, naturally, the PO! }(

Sure, my friends, you'll get to drop your dollar if you insist, but this time it's different game and there will be no safety net below... :D

[54anickel]

23. I thought much the same when I read that. Sure, they may play along

with some sort of Plaza Accord, but will the world be willing to turn around and kick it back up with another Louvre Accord when the buck gets too low? I think not. The euro isn't a bad alternative to the US$ these days, unlike the past 60 some years when there was no alternative. Meanwhile there's plenty of action with the ASEAN members working their way toward a common currency.

I am starting to hate my country's arrogance. Now they spew this BS of how our future jobs will be all about innovation and creativity - outsourcing and globalization of our jobs will free us up for R&D and innovation - like we are the only ones to have these skills. Get real! I have read articles about companies moving their R&D overseas as well to take advantage of the cheaper labor.

How long before those engineers, working for US owned companies take their knowledge and skills to a non-US owned competitor. They will be out innovating us just as they are now out producing us in no time. The corporations won't care who's innovating and producing as long as they can make a profit. They don't care who ends up being their consumer base - just that they have one.

So it is the general public that will be hurting as our standard of living continues to degrade.

I've said it before, the rest of the world is preparing for the day when the US goes down the crapper. My biggest fear is that they will be compelled to initiate the change prematurely if Shrub gets re-selected and pushes too far in his Crusade and the neo-con wet-dream of empire. A US financial melt-down is the world's best weapon these days.

IMHO that is what is truly at stake in our election this time around. The risk of great pain and possible world chaos when Shrubco over step the bounds, or a more orderly transition of economic power and wealth. Either way, we loose in the end. It all comes down to a matter of degree now.

But, like I've said before, I'm a doom and gloomer.

[54anickel]

11. KPMG Sanctioned for Improper Conduct

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/3324730/c_3324755?f=home_todayinfinance

The Securities and Exchange Commission settled charges with KPMG LLP, two former partners, and a current partner and senior manager for "improper professional conduct" as auditors for Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc.

The Big Four accounting firm, which agreed to settle the action without admitting or denying the SEC's findings, was not fined by the commission. However, it did agree to compensate Gemstar shareholders who were harmed, to the tune of $10 million — the largest payment ever made by an accounting firm in an SEC action, according to the regulator.

The four individuals — former partners Bryan E. Palbaum and John M. Wong; Kenneth B. Janeski, a partner in KPMG's Los Angeles office; and David A. Hori, a manager in the Phoenix office — also agreed to settle the action without admitting or denying the findings. They are barred from appearing or practicing before the SEC for periods ranging from one year to three years.

snip>

The SEC has a pending lawsuit in federal court against four former executives of Gemstar — former chief executive officer Henry C. Yuen, former chief financial officer Elsie M. Leung, former general counsel Jonathan B. Orlick, and former TV Guide CFO Craig Waggy. The trial is scheduled to begin January 18.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. U.S. ECRI weekly index shows no growth for 12th week

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38282.4434606481-824366827&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic performance dropped 1 percent last week, the Economic Cycle Research Insitute reported Friday. It was the second straight 1 percent decline. The index has not shown growth since the last week of July. At current levels, the ECRI weekly leading index is showing a loss of momentum in the economy, but is not signaling a contraction.

[54anickel]

16. So what does it take to signal a contraction anyway? Sheesh, isn't

that sort of just parsing words? We've lost momentum, but it's not yet a contraction - sheesh. I picture a jet running out of fuel when I read stuff like that.

[54anickel]

15. Citigroup Says SEC May Take Action Against Jones

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a8puObt0zXeE&refer=us

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the world's largest financial services company, said the Securities and Exchange Commission may take enforcement action against Thomas Jones, the former head of its investment management business.

The probe relates to the operation of an internal transfer agent serving the company's Smith Barney mutual funds group, the New York-based company said in an SEC filing. The SEC has notified Jones, as well as an unidentified employee and an unidentified former employee, the filing said, without being more specific.

Jones, 55, is leaving the company, Citigroup said this week.

Citigroup said Nov. 25 that state and federal prosecutors were investigating an undisclosed arrangement between its mutual funds and a vendor that provided transfer-agent services. Jones said in a memo to senior managers at the time that an internal investigation showed the company failed to pass on to its funds a $16 million payment received from an unnamed agent and didn't inform the funds' boards about it.

[54anickel]

17. 100,000 engineers a year

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buss/buss102204.html

snip>

They manufacture in China now. And all the politicos on the show went wild and said, "You can't do that" or "You can't compare China to Germany" or "You are unpatriotic." Well, he basically answered "Go stuff yourselves people - this is a globalized world and we either do that to compete in a global world or we close shop completely." And, he mentioned, everybody wants a nice, affordable Mercedes Benz to drive. Well, he said, "if we would produce our parts in Germany and sell them to MB, then the price of that new SLK 300 would rise by 25-30% and nobody would buy it and then MB would go out of business." So basically he's saying "People, get real." And then somebody said "Well, you can't compare a German engineer to a Chinese worker." Again, bigotry and wrong. His answer: "Put the raw material in, watch and control the process, out drops the widget and it's packed and freighted." It does not take a rocket scientist to do that! A German, a Chinese or a Mexican can do that. And they are doing it. And just for your info, in China they produce 100,000 engineers a year. That is 10 times the US. And they are better educated. So, please, get real.

The crux is: the politicians who are paid to look ahead and form national policies have been sleeping and missed the reforms which were required years ago. Reforms have a latency period of years, if not decades, before they start to take hold and thus we in the West failed to get on the boat in time and make the necessary changes. We are starting to pay the heavy price of that missed opportunity. Equally, human behaviour is to live in denial. The good times will forever be around. Well, I say, the good times are starting to wane.

And to note: Anybody here speaking half-way passable Chinese seems to have a job for life. LOTS of Chinese here on visits to learn the manufacturing sector... I think it was Lenin who said "The capitalists shall sell the rope from which they hang." Or was it that famous German Karl Marx?

[aneerkoinos]

19. It takes a commie to understand capitalism :)

It just struck me, why Chinese are unwilling to cut the cord to dollar, even though strong currency would help them compete for the natural resources of the world. If they did, they fear (for good reason) that would instantly become prey to the biggest speculative attack ever (see the money money money article I posted)!

Yep, for the same reason Euro was created, all the Soroses and Clintons in the world can't pull that stunt on EZ countries like they did on Asian tigers and UK, Euro is now too big for that. So Chinese may want to imitate EU and create some kind of Asian currency union before they float...?

[aneerkoinos]

18. Good article on money, money, money

This is the second installment of Stan Goff's report on the simmering Persian Peril. Where Part One set out a history of modern Iran in its relations with Western imperial powers, the current piece explains the petrodollar system that underlies our ugly situation in the Middle East and the world. As Catherine Austin Fitts says, nothing will really change until we change the way money works. "Petrodollar," "fiat currency," "speculative attack," "balance of trade" --- these are the lexicographical little friends whom we need by our sides if we are to make it out of the propaganda labyrinth. Goff's essay explains just why the world puts up with the American bully. It isn't just the horrible weapons of death; it's the horrible weapon of debt: in this ongoing American dream, "we" do the borrowing - and everyone else does the owing. -JAH]

http://www.energybulletin.net/2754.html

[54anickel]

36. Interesting article as well as the links within it. Does cause one to

take pause and think, doesn't it?

[54anickel]

21. 11:33 pre-lunch check in

Dow 9,834.06 -31.70 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,938.24 -15.38 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,103.78 -2.71 (-0.24%)
10-yr Bond 4.001% +0.004
30-yr Bond 4.771% +0.003
NYSE Volume 501,724,000
Nasdaq Volume 711,237,000

11:00AM: Equities remain on the defensive although selling pressure still remains mild... This week's earnings reports, while far from disappointing, have been a mixed bag as blue chip (JP Morgan) and tech (Microsoft) companies alike have come in under market expectations in one way or another... Investors have admittedly had rather high standards - as a number of companies warned ahead of this reporting season - but companies have not been able to calm fears about decelerating profits growth later this year...
According to S&P estimates, most companies should actually come in with earnings growth of 15-16% in Q4 (Dec) - a rate similar to that of Q3's (Sept)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1607/1265, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1208/1395

10:35AM: After holding around the unchanged mark for the first 45 minutes, stocks slip into negative territory... Tech, heath care, and telecom service are currently sporting the largest losses and are offsetting modest gains in financial and retail... Strikingly, the semiconductor group has plunged into the red after being positive for most of the morning... Broadcom (BRCM 27.09 -3.38) and Xilinx (XLNX 39.03 -1.34) remain some of the largest laggards as players remain disappointed with their reports and guidance for the upcoming quarter...

Like most other semi names, the companies noted that they are experiencing an inventory correction - although doubts remain in the investment community as to whether this is a short-term issue... Crude oil has also contributed to the recent pullback - the price is up 1% to $54.95/bbl...SOX -1.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1666/1100, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1238/1274


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1643 (51%) 1266 (44%)
Declines 1321 (41%) 1435 (49%)
Unchanged 197 (6%) 172 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 229 (52%) 216 (33%)
Down Vol* 191 (44%) 430 (65%)
Unch. Vol* 13 (3%) 6 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 94 77
New Lo's 19 36


And the buck is trying to hang on to 86.00

Last trade 86.01 Change -0.01 (-0.01%)

[TrogL]

22. Loonie Watch

I'm putting this up early 'cause I'm gonna be busy later. Looks like the loonie is the currency to watch today. Check here (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s) to watch the action.

You'll note (at least at the moment) that most of the major currencies are taking the day off to regroup except the greenback which is in free-fall and the loonie and Euro which are showing strength.

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight and is challenging weekly resistance crossing at .8060. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. Closes below last week's low crossing at .7871 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

Here's the online charts.

[TrogL]

27. WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON??

Somebody just bought at 0.80870

click here ?s=CME_CDT4&t=f&w=5&a=1&v=s

The moving average is above linear.

[TrogL]

28. Daily numbers are out - Holy *moderated* *moderated*

http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2004-09-23 Thursday, September 23 0.78235 USD
2004-09-24 Friday, September 24 0.783515 USD
2004-09-27 Monday, September 27 0.785053 USD
2004-09-28 Tuesday, September 28 0.784068 USD
2004-09-29 Wednesday, September 29 0.785546 USD
2004-09-30 Thursday, September 30 0.790639 USD
2004-10-01 Friday, October 1 0.791828 USD
2004-10-04 Monday, October 4 0.785793 USD
2004-10-05 Tuesday, October 5 0.792079 USD
2004-10-06 Wednesday, October 6 0.794155 USD
2004-10-07 Thursday, October 7 0.795102 USD
2004-10-08 Friday, October 8 0.799233 USD
2004-10-12 Tuesday, October 12 0.795229 USD
2004-10-13 Wednesday, October 13 0.791139 USD
2004-10-14 Thursday, October 14 0.798212 USD
2004-10-15 Friday, October 15 0.798722 USD
2004-10-18 Monday, October 18 0.796813 USD
2004-10-19 Tuesday, October 19 0.797321 USD
2004-10-20 Wednesday, October 20 0.804376 USD
2004-10-21 Thursday, October 21 0.804764 USD
2004-10-22 Friday, October 22 0.80782 USD

[TrogL]

31. 0.80910 !!!!!

:wtf:

[TrogL]

33. 0.80970 !!!!

Warp 9, Scotty!

[54anickel]

34. Hmmm, set up for a fleecing coming on? n/t

[TrogL]

35. 0.81000 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OH!!!!


MY!!!!!


GOD!!!!!!!


Does anybody know what the volumes are normally?

[TrogL]

40. 0.81040 (I've run out of exclamation marks - they're on backorder)

OK, now I'm just plain :scared:

(on edit)

Looking at the main site (http://quotes.ino.com/), it looks like rats leaving a sinking ship. Everything is up except the pound. The loonie's doing exceptionally well so I'm wondering if investors are considering it to be a safe bet.

Wish I could tell who's doing all the buying.

[TrogL]

53. Saner heads appear to be prevailing

It's down a bit, but the day isn't over and with all the talking heads trash-talking we may still see some excitement.

[TrogL]

72. Final 0.81010

I'm gonna be all over the TV economics reports tonight. There's gotta be something going on.

[ozymandius]

39. Forex market bursts to life as dollar cracks (all over)

After months of relative torpor the currency market burst into life this week as the pressures building on the US dollar finally forced the greenback to crack.

The dollar spiralled out of the tight trading range of $1.18 to $1.25 against the euro that had prevailed since March, ending the week 1.2 per cent weaker at $1.2630, not far from February's seven-year low of $1.2930. The greenback slumped to similar lows against a broad basket of currencies, registering an eight-month low in trade-weighted terms.

The dollar's decline was kickstarted by soft economic data, but soon deviated from the fundamentals as the market began to worry about the repercussions of oil prices staying higher for longer than expected.

-cut-

The greenback's weakness also encouraged speculators to rebuild dollar-funded carry trades to chase attractive bond yields elsewhere, enabling the Australian dollar to rise 1 per cent to $0.7385 against its US namesake, the New Zealand dollar to gain 1.1 per cent to $0.6936 and the rand to jump 3.6 per cent to R6.18, the latter helped by surging gold prices and a credit rating upgrade for South Africa.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=2&u=/ft/20041022/bs_ft/7e106a64240811d9a11000000e2511c8

[54anickel]

43. Not to mention the Loonie! This part is disturbing:

snip>

Any pronounced slowdown in the US could persuade overseas investors to cut their exposure to Wall Street, making it harder still for the US to cover its external deficit, prompting a further downward dollar spiral.

"The US needs 4 per cent growth to justify equity prices. Anything below that will drive flows the other way," said Simon Hayley, senior international economist at Capital Economics, who sees the dollar sliding to $1.40 against the euro during 2005.

snip>

And lurking in the background was the suggestion that the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) was talking the dollar lower, a notion that gained credibility as San Francisco Fed president Janet Yellen said the dollar was still "relatively high despite our large and growing trade deficit" even as the greenback headed south.

snip>

This crystalised the week's other big talking point - that renewed dollar weakness could restart the "currency wars" seen earlier in the year, with governments and central banks using verbal and actual intervention to stop their currencies becoming too strong.

More of that global race of devaluation of currency is on tap

[ozymandius]

46. U.S. equities relegated to international junk status? n/t

[Renew Deal]

77. kick

This was just out of hand.

[54anickel]

24. 1:11 numbers and yada

Dow 9,836.89 -28.87 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,936.59 -17.03 (-0.87%)
S&P 500 1,104.29 -2.20 (-0.20%)
10-yr Bond 4.007% +0.010
30-yr Bond 4.776% +0.008
NYSE Volume 763,115,000
Nasdaq Volume 978,983,000

1:00PM : Still a weak trade this afternoon as investors prefer a more defensive posture going into the weekend... Faced with another rush of earnings next week - and given the mixed nature of this week's releases - traders have taken a more cautious approach... Six Dow components spanning a wide range of industries - American Express (AXP), DuPont (DD), Boeing (BA), Procter & Gamble (PG), ExxonMobil (XOM), and Verizon (VZ) - will be releasing in particular... In addition, economic data will be plentiful with Consumer Confidence, Existing and New Home Sales, Durable Orders, and Q3 GDP...NYSE Adv/Dec 1697/1399, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1266/1568
12:30PM : The market pares its losses some but remains underwater for the day... The Nasdaq (-0.7%) continues to trail the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Dow (-0.2%) as tech remains the favorite group of sellers... The Dow itself has been stuck in negative territory on account of losses in 20 of its 30 components... AIG (AIG 55.58 -0.87) is the second worst stock today and has continued in its streak of losses following the announcement of Eliot Spitzer's lawsuit (last Thursday)...

A Wall Street Journal article today points out that the Department of Justice may indict AIG itself, and not just individual employees... In the history of US financial markets, no major financial services firm has survived an indictment...NYSE Adv/Dec 1626/1415, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1233/1561

12:00PM : Earnings reports and crude oil continue to curb buying interest in the market and have led to (in this morning's case) losses across the board... Last night/today's earnings releases have been rather unimpressive as a number of leading names - such as Amazon.com (AMZN 35.04 -4.43), Broadcom (BRCM 26.68 -3.79), Microsoft (MSFT 28.01 -0.55), and Xilinx (XLNX 28.82 -1.55) - delivered decent reports but warned for the upcoming quarter...

That has effectively amplified concerns about slowing end market demand going into 2005, and has prompted selling in most areas of technology (semiconductor, software, computer hardware)... Internet, however, has been one of the only sectors to move higher following a much better than expected Q3 (Sept) report from Google (GOOG 173.56 +24.18) - its first as a publicly traded company... The blue chip issues have been plagued by weakness in retail, drug, transportation, and homebuilding... The spike in the price of crude oil, to $55.28/bbl, has contributed to the downbeat trade... The commodity touched record highs earlier and the June futures contract now trades as high as $50/bbl - a sign that the market does not expect a correction anytime soon...

Energy, thus, has been one of the only blue chip groups (along with utility, due to the still low yields on the 10-year note) to find buying interest...SOX -2.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1572/1439, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1240/1505

And the buck has been leveling off

Last trade 85.94 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

[54anickel]

25. The Case That Kerry Cracked

http://www.alternet.org/election04/20268/

One gets an eerie sense of déjà vu watching John Kerry battle the Bush clan. He’s done it once before, against the old man, President Bush’s father, though many voters have probably forgotten. That battle involved the first Bush administration’s attempt to put the lid on an investigation that connected a worldwide criminal bank to narco-traffickers, terrorists, and to Middle East money men who helped the Bush family make piles of cash. Those links connect to people now on the U.S. post-9/11 terrorist list.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Kerry fought to expose an international criminal bank, BCCI — the Bank of Credit and Commerce International. The bank was run by a Pakistani, working with Persian Gulf managers who operated through a network of secret offshore centers to hide their operations from the world’s bank examiners. They weren’t, however, hidden from the CIA, which not only knew what the bank was doing, but used the bank to funnel cash through its Islamabad and other Pakistani branches to CIA client Osama bin Laden, part of the $2 billion Washington sent to the Afghani mujahideen. The operation gave bin Laden an education in black finance. CIA director William Casey himself met with BCCI founder Agha Hasan Abedi. The CIA also paid its own agents through the bank and used BCCI to fund black ops all over the world.

Kerry took on not only the Bush clan and its friends, but the CIA, and members of Congress on both sides of the aisle. This is not irrelevant history, but important to examine, because it reveals a lot about Kerry and how he might respond to terrorism or other global criminal enterprises. Kerry’s record shows that he took on powerful political and bureaucratic interests, was a tenacious investigator, and savvy about international crime and money flows, which is crucial in the fight against terrorism.

Against the opposition of powerful Republicans and Democrats, and in light of a lack of cooperation from a very politicized Justice Department and stonewalling by the CIA, Kerry worked with investigators and ran Senate hearings that exposed the bank’s shadowy multi-billion-dollar scams and precipitated its end.

The Bank and the CIA

MORE...

[54anickel]

26. 1:36 and not looking too good

Dow 9,809.13 -56.63 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 1,926.89 -26.73 (-1.37%)
S&P 500 1,100.15 -6.34 (-0.57%)
10-yr Bond 4.003% +0.006
30-yr Bond 4.770% +0.002
NYSE Volume 841,373,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,071,594,000

1:30PM: After recouping some losses around mid-day, sellers take over and send the market to new session lows... Crude oil is up once again, to $55.45/bbl, as speculators continue to believe that high winter demand forecasts will keep prices elevated... In the absence of any other influential news items this afternoon, traders have used this development as a reason to take stocks lower... The selling has been fairly broad-based as even tech has taken another hit...
With such a bearish technical picture and with trading conditions as weak as they are, buyers should stick to the sidelines and not use this retreat as a buying opportunity...SOX -2.7, NYSE Adv/Dec 1597/1524, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1189/1676

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1562 (47%) 1123 (36%)
Declines 1583 (47%) 1758 (57%)
Unchanged 173 (5%) 176 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 405 (52%) 300 (29%)
Down Vol* 355 (45%) 701 (68%)
Unch. Vol* 16 (2%) 15 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 120 86
New Lo's 29 42

[nolabels]

29. This seems to be a pattern in this last week

Will the pixie dust come later, or does poketing the profit take place?

My guess is the dow down 22 points at close, anybody else want to make a wild guess :shrug:

[54anickel]

30. AT 1:57 the Pixies will certainly have their work cut out for them

Dow 9,790.33 -75.43 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 1,925.70 -27.92 (-1.43%)
S&P 500 1,099.10 -7.39 (-0.67%)
10-yr Bond 3.999% +0.002
30-yr Bond 4.769% +0.001
NYSE Volume 904,828,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,142,337,000

Check out the sudden swing in Adv/Dec figures

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1313 (39%) 1036 (33%)
Declines 1846 (55%) 1846 (60%)
Unchanged 174 (5%) 192 (6%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 348 (41%) 308 (28%)
Down Vol* 482 (57%) 767 (70%)
Unch. Vol* 15 (1%) 15 (1%)

[ozymandius]

32. 2:01 figures (Is Bush managing the markets himself today?)

Dow 9,792.08 -73.68 (-0.75%)
Nasdaq 1,926.37 -27.25 (-1.39%)
S&P 500 1,099.54 -6.95 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 3.999% +0.002
NYSE Volume 916,318,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,150,800,000

[ozymandius]

37. 2:26 numbers and updated blather

Dow 9,808.10 -57.66 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,924.73 -28.89 (-1.48%)
S&P 500 1,100.54 -5.95 (-0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 3.991% -0.006
NYSE Volume 993,604,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,232,318,000

U.S. stocks fall on oil surge; Dow bounces off 2004 low

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -U.S. stocks tumbled in afternoon trading Friday as crude-oil prices moved closer to $56 a barrel, raising concern high energy prices will become a major drag on economic growth.

On the earnings front, Google shares soared on a strong third-quarter performance, while Microsoft and Amazon were under pressure as their results failed to impress investors.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was last down 61 points, at 9,804, after briefly matching its lowest level for the year touched on August 13 when it fell to 9,783.90 intraday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041022/79044ede8a3ce40a2d871a79a24a9949_1.html

[54anickel]

38. 2:30 update - is that Pixie dust in the air?

Dow 9,810.02 -55.74 (-0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,927.25 -26.37 (-1.35%)
S&P 500 1,101.26 -5.23 (-0.47%)
10-yr Bond 3.991% -0.006
30-yr Bond 4.765% -0.003
NYSE Volume 1,011,836,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,248,528,000

[ozymandius]

42. Blather, anyone?

Dow Hits Intraday Low 9,803.74 for Year

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow Jones industrial average fell to an intraday low for the year on Friday as oil prices surged to another record and Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) dragged on stocks after the software maker's revenue forecast lagged analysts' expectations.

...short blurb...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[54anickel]

44. 2:54 and the Pixies have left the building - ouch!

Dow 9,771.22 -94.54 (-0.96%)
Nasdaq 1,917.68 -35.94 (-1.84%)
S&P 500 1,097.04 -9.45 (-0.85%)
10-yr Bond 3.999% +0.002
30-yr Bond 4.771% +0.003
NYSE Volume 1,087,569,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,328,523,000

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1470 (43%) 1069 (34%)
Declines 1733 (51%) 1866 (59%)
Unchanged 176 (5%) 194 (6%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 482 (47%) 317 (24%)
Down Vol* 529 (51%) 928 (72%)
Unch. Vol* 12 (1%) 35 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 121 89
New Lo's 40 49

And the buck makes another new intraday low

Last trade 85.87 Change -0.15 (-0.17%)

Settle 86.02 Settle Time 23:35

Open 86.12 Previous Close 86.02

High 86.20 Low 85.82

[ozymandius]

47. Blather is coming at dizzying speed now.

2:47
U.S. stocks fall on oil surge; Dow bounces off 2004 low

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -U.S. stocks tumbled in afternoon trading Friday as crude-oil prices moved closer to $56 a barrel, raising concern high energy prices will become a major drag on economic growth.

On the earnings front, Google shares soared on a strong third-quarter performance, while Microsoft and Amazon were under pressure as their results failed to impress investors.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was last down 73 points, at 9,791, after briefly matching its lowest level for the year touched on August 13 when it fell to 9,783.90 intraday.

-cut-

Oil flips back over $55 a barrel

Crude-oil prices climbed to their highest intraday level ever. Heating-oil prices reached records as supplies dwindled.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041022/c1fecfcf39253b5c1a49e5281e1422a4_1.html

[ozymandius]

45. Look out!

2:56

Dow 9,774.18 -91.58 (-0.93%)
Nasdaq 1,918.06 -35.56 (-1.82%)
S&P 500 1,097.01 -9.48 (-0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 3.997% 0.00
NYSE Volume 1,092,298,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,338,713,000

[54anickel]

48. DOW at -99.10, think they'll try to avoid the -100.00 mark?

[54anickel]

49. Guess not -105.44 now.

[ozymandius]

50. uglier and uglier. Curbs on Nasdaq may soon kick in.

3:03
Dow 9,761.51 -104.25 (-1.06%)
Nasdaq 1,916.93 -36.69 (-1.88%)
S&P 500 1,095.65 -10.84 (-0.98%)
10-Yr Bond 3.991% -0.006
NYSE Volume 1,123,859,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,367,849,000

[54anickel]

51. 3:00 blather

3:00PM: After a slight respite at the bottom of the last hour, the bears have moved in again and sent equities to fresh session lows... The Dow has officially slumped to its lows of 2004 - taking out its previous worse level at 9783 - as 25 of its 30 components boast losses... The market showed some resilience in the early action, but soon gave way to selling pressure as traders viewed last night/this morning's earnings as weak relative to expectations... This disappointment, however, has translated into gains for the treasury market...
Bonds are now slightly higher after showing losses earlier.. The belief that the economy is moderating some and oil prices will continue to cap stock upside has kept buying interest healthy in treasuries - despite the Fed's rate tightening...NYSE Adv/Dec 1415/1794, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1050/1895

[ozymandius]

52. 3:08 - pulling back

Dow 9,771.82 -93.94 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 1,918.47 -35.15 (-1.80%)
S&P 500 1,096.44 -10.05 (-0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 3.991% -0.006
NYSE Volume 1,145,853,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,389,097,000

[54anickel]

55. Heh, looks like it's a tug-o-war for what the headlines will be now.

Will there be the big splash of DOW down over 100 points, or something a little less dramatic. :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

56. 3:05 blather

U.S. stocks tumble; blue chips hit new low for 2004

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average touched a new low for the year on concern surging crude-oil prices will become a major drag on economic growth.

On the earnings front, Google shares soared on a strong third-quarter performance, while Microsoft and Amazon were under pressure as their results failed to impress investors.

-cut-

Oil is once again the story, according to Joseph Keating, chief investment officer at AmSouth Asset Management Group.

"The big concern is that if these hikes in oil prices persist, they are going to retard growth and pose an increasing risk to expansion," said Keating.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041022/14458cff9867e04a213ae05d7c4289cc_1.html

[spotbird]

54. When do 401K statements go out?

Is there a quarterly statement due soon that will reflect this disaster?

[54anickel]

57. Alas, regardless if they get quarterly or monthly statements in the mail

the poor little buy and hold 401Kers will not get their statements early enough to sway their votes - if that's what you were hoping for. The quarterly statements would have cut off at the end of last month, the monthly statements won't hit the mail until the end of this month.

[Renew Deal]

58. Lookout below

[UpInArms]

60. 3:36 EST numbers and blather (recovering some - less than 100 down)

Dow 9,775.95 -89.81 (-0.91%)
Nasdaq 1,918.64 -34.98 (-1.79%)
S&P 500 1,097.35 -9.14 (-0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 3.984% -0.013

NYSE Volume 1,273,671,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,511,682,000

3:30PM: Little improvement in the past half hour - from the perspective of the bulls - as the indices trade deep in negative territory... Negative breadth figures and strong industry leadership to the downside have weighed heavily on the proceedings and turned the tone bearish... Tech, transportation, health care, and cyclical have spearheaded the way lower and found support in nearly every single sector aside from utility, oil service, and health care distribution/facility....

Large-cap stocks have tumbled 1%, while small cap issues - generally disproportionately affected in sell offs/rallies - have plummeted 1.3%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1219/2017, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 991/1975

dollar sucking pond scum

Last trade 85.87 Change -0.15 (-0.17%)

[ozymandius]

61. 3:38

Dow 9,772.26 -93.50 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 1,918.54 -35.08 (-1.80%)
S&P 500 1,097.34 -9.15 (-0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 3.984% -0.013
NYSE Volume 1,282,356,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,520,708,000

[54anickel]

62. Gold-buggy, but timely -

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buckler/buckler102204.html

It is crystal clear that the present trajectory of the US government is one which makes fiscal and financial collapse utterly inevitable. And because the rest of the world still relies on the US and its Dollar as the foundation of the global financial system, those clear eyed indivduals know that no nation will escape unscathed from a US financial meltdown, whatever its magnitude.

Is Mr Kerry expected to "solve" these problems? No, he isn't. But a new Administration would at least bring with it the possibility that the world will not be subjected to more of the same. And in addition, a repudiation of the Bush Administration on November 2 would send the rest of the world the message that the present US exectutive branch of government has NOT and is NOT acting in the name and with the approval of the American people.

For the third year in a row, the US government is up against its borrowing limits. And as each borrowing limit has been reached, the fiscal and financial condition of the US has worsened. It has NEVER been as bad as it is now, in the final throes of a US Presidential election. The only question left is whether the wheels will fall off before, or after, the US election.

snip>

Financial debacles are just that, financial debacles. The world does not stop turning, nor does the sun stop shining. People still learn, teach, trade, work, create, and enjoy life. What is going to be sorely hit is not REAL wealth, but merely paper claims to real wealth. When you think about the coming FINANCIAL debacle, think about this. In times of financial strife, wealth returns to its rightful owners. The rightful owners of wealth - real, physical, existing, functioning producer and consumer goods and services - are the ones who create it - NOT the ones who "buy" it by issuing promises to pay which they have no intention of honouring.

[ozymandius]

63. with fifteen minutes left to go - black eyes all around

Except the bond traders made a few pennies today.

Dow 9,772.48 -93.28 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 1,920.47 -33.15 (-1.70%)
S&P 500 1,097.88 -8.61 (-0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 3.984% -0.013
NYSE Volume 1,311,708,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,554,254,000

[54anickel]

65. Cripes, look at 'em running to google

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=GOOG

Last Trade: 173.27
Trade Time: 3:37PM ET
Change: 23.89 (15.99%)
Volume: 34,882,260

[54anickel]

66. Looks like the more sensational headline wins. -112.15 at 3:59

[ozymandius]

68. closing figures and blather

Dow 9,757.81 -107.95 (-1.09%)
Nasdaq 1,915.14 -38.48 (-1.97%)
S&P 500 1,095.74 -10.75 (-0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 3.984% -0.013
NYSE Volume 1,473,228,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,722,005,000

U.S. stocks tumble; blue chips hit new low for 2004

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average touched a new low for the year on concern surging crude-oil prices will become a major drag on economic growth.

On the earnings front, Google shares soared on a strong third-quarter performance, while Microsoft and Amazon were under pressure as their results failed to impress investors.

The Dow industrials (^DJI - News) was sitting just off its new low for the year, down 103 points, at 9,762. The index fell as low as 9,759.43, breaching its previous low for 2004 of 9,783.90 touched on August 13.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041022/14458cff9867e04a213ae05d7c4289cc_1.html

[54anickel]

64. Meltdown dead ahead?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_102504.html

We are always surprised at the complacency of the bulls in the face of mounting evidence that may have got it wrong. Indeed we have listened endlessly recently to forecasts of how we have now survived through the worst month (September) and that traditionally markets often bottom in October (although sometimes as late as November) and then take off in the traditional late fall and Santa Claus rally. They might still be right but that doesn't mean they may not get a good Hallowe'en scare first.

But complacency is what we have seen of late with the VIX at record lows while the indices were not even at the highs seen earlier in the year. Even recent sentiment numbers in the mid to high 50's and even low 60's suggests that the market was once again becoming overly confident. Of late the economic numbers while certainly not in the depressing range have been below expectations (see leading indicators). And job cut announcements just keep on coming the most recent from General Motors.

But the underground economy aside job losses are just a part of the growing problem. The recent trade numbers came in at a deficit of $54 billion the second highest on record. We are on track for a $600 billion dollar deficit for the year or roughly 5.5% of GDP. In 1987 we had a stock market crash when the trade deficit hit 4% of GDP. So is this a problem? Well it is easy to rationalize away the deficit and say it doesn't matter because it is just a recycling of goods and dollars. Asia (China) supplies the goods to satisfy the demand for goods in the US and then recycles its dollars right back to the US to finance the deficits.

Trouble with that picture is that not necessarily do all of the dollars come right back into America. Nor does it always come back in the form of just financing the debt through the purchase of Treasury Bills and Treasury bonds and notes and/or the bonds and paper of US corporations and agencies. Some of it is used to purchase other US assets including buying other companies and real estate. And some it is going to buy assets in other countries. An example of that is the takeover attempt being made by the Chinese state owned MinMetals to buy Noranda Inc. (NRD-TSX) the giant Canadian zinc, nickel and copper, producer. China with its insatiable demand for metals needs to secure its own supply. And they have indicated it won't stop at Noranda.

more...

[Walt Starr]

67. This has to be the lowest close of the year

When was the last time it closed this low?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

69. It is

[54anickel]

70. Ugh! So where did people "invest" their Christmas bonus from last

year? The markets or some whimpy little CD paying 1% or so? Who really came out ahead when you figure inflation into the mix? Just like the Casino, the house always wins in the end. :puke:

[nolabels]

71. But, but, but,, the Fox News says the economy is in recovery mode

Say good night Dick

[UpInArms]

73. Dollar closed at 85.69

Last trade 85.69 Change -0.15 (-0.17%)

OUCH!

[54anickel]

74. Huh!?!? Holy crap, It looked like it was going to level out last time

I checked. Was that some last minute bailing as the markets took a dump? Sheesh! Is there going to be any good news or reports out next week to rally off of? This is not looking too good.

[TrogL]

75. What's China doing?

They just spent a lot of money on Alberta oil something-or-other. Are they buying Euros?

[54anickel]

76. Yep, something I posted yesterday or the day before stated they

were also buying euros. I'll see if I can find the article and will edit this post with it.

Can't find the one I was thinking of. Might have been something I read but didn't post. Found these rather interesting ones though.

http://www.newstatesman.com/site.php3?newTemplate=NSArticle_NS&newDisplayURN=200410040024
America's foes prepare for a monetary jihad


http://english.people.com.cn/200409/28/eng20040928_158593.html
Crisis looms due to weak dollar

http://www.businessreport.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=2268288
China says currency peg not a market-entry obstacle


http://www.chinapost.com.tw/i_latestdetail.asp?id=23648
Legislators ignore NT$210 bil. for military budgets

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-08/07/content_363061.htm
How about revenge?

[antigop]

78. Looking for article on Treasury security sale

On one of the daily stockmarket threads last week, someone posted an article that talked about how bond traders got stuck with US Treasury securities. I think it was a cbsmarketwatch.com article.

Unfortunately, I forgot to get the link to that article.

Can anyone help?

Thanks.

[UpInArms]

79. here you go antigop -

Bond Sales Feed Worries
Will Foreign Interests Stop Investing in the United States?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43402-2004Oct18.html

NEW YORK -- On Sept. 9, as it must frequently do, the U.S. government turned to Wall Street to raise a little cash, and Paul Calvetti bet that demand for $9 billion worth of long-term Treasury bonds would be "huge."

But at 1 p.m., as the auction opened and the numbers began streaming across his flat-panel screens, the head of Treasury trading at Barclays Capital Inc. slumped in his chair. Foreign investors, who had been voraciously buying Treasury bonds, failed to show up. Bond prices cascaded downward, interest rates rose, and in five minutes, Calvetti, 38, who makes money by bidding on bonds at one price and hoping market demand lets him quickly resell them at a profit, had lost $1.5 million.

"It's amazing," he gasped, after the Treasury Department announced that Wall Street traders, not foreigners, had been left to buy virtually the entire auction. "I don't think I've ever seen this before."

The most recent auction of 10-year Treasury notes may have been a fluke, a momentary downturn in one aspect of the massive world market for U.S. government and private-sector bonds, stocks and other securities -- a market so large and diverse that it has long been the world's safe haven. But a rash of new data, including Treasury Department figures released yesterday showing a net sell-off by foreigners of U.S. bonds in August, has stoked debate over whether overseas investors -- private individuals, institutions and government central banks -- are growingly dangerously bearish on the U.S. economy.

It is a portentous issue. Foreign governments and individuals hold about half of the $3.7 trillion in outstanding U.S. Treasury bonds, for example, and the government has been heavily dependent on continued overseas bond purchases to finance the roughly $1 billion a day it has to borrow to pay its bills. Foreign lending and investment are also needed to finance the country's roughly $50 billion monthly trade deficit, while foreign capital has been a key prop to U.S. stock prices.

<snip>

Bond purchases by foreign central banks also dropped sharply in July, falling 76 percent, to $4.1 billion. A rebound in August brought them back to $19.1 billion. The recovery was timely: Without it, the dollar may have taken a serious hit, said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial Group in New York, who headlined yesterday's client newsletter, "Foreign Central Banks Save Dollar From Disaster."

...more...

[antigop]

80. That's it. That's the one.

For some reason I thought it was a cbsmarketwatch article.

Thanks.