The intelligence revision of the scale of the insurgency, which puts the number of militant cells at over 50 and growing, indicates that the current level of coalition forces will struggle to cope with an increased level of insurgent activity as the election approaches next year. The documents show that terrorist and militia activity is spreading across Iraq and is not just limited to Baghdad and Fallujah.
The increasing number of anti-coalition militias are believed to receive funds from wealthy Saudi donors and to be in receipt of funds from money placed in Syrian banks before the fall of Saddam. As much as $1 billion belonging to Saddam may have found its way to Syria before the coalition invasion. The militia problem is compounded by criminals now rampant inside the almost lawless parts of Iraq.
The picture painted by the rise in the number of resistance groups, allied to a rise in the number of attacks on coalition forces, points to serious question marks now over Ayad Allawi’s interim government. Allawi still claims that elections will be held across all parts of Iraq and will also be fair and democratic. The United Nations have recently voiced concern over the interim Iraqi government’s plans to limit the election and yet still claim it is legitimate. The timing of the rise in militia violence and the dangerous picture of an Iraq far from under control, is also bad news for the re-election prospects of President George Bush.
In the run-in to the US presidential election, one of Bush’s key messages is that a democratic Iraq will make the world a safer place. That claim is key to the White House’s justification for the invasion.
The more the claim looks suspect, the likelihood is that swing voters – crucial to the outcome of the election race - could turn to Bush’s challenger, Senator John Kerry. The fears of a pro-Saddam resistance network and increased instability outlined in the intelligence reports seen by the Sunday Herald were born out by 24 hours of exceptional violence across Iraq.
http://www.sundayherald.com/45619