Hawai'i Poll: Bush, Kerry in dead heat

[quaoar]

This is just bizarre. I think Hawaii is feeling left out and wants some attention.

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/23/ln/ln05p.html

By Derrick DePledge
Advertiser Capitol Bureau

President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are deadlocked among likely voters in Hawai'i, a surprising boost for the Republican president in a state that many Democrats had considered safe for Kerry.

The findings of the Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll suggest that Hawai'i's four electoral votes are in play with just over a week to go before the election. Nationally, other opinion polls have found that Bush and Kerry are essentially tied for the popular vote.

The Hawai'i Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide between Oct. 13 and Monday, had Bush at 43.3 percent and Kerry at 42.6 percent. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

A large number of voters, 12 percent, said they were still undecided, giving supporters of both candidates hope during the final days of the campaign.

[OKNancy]

1. FYI

There is a rather large thread in GD2044 on this subject posted yesterday. Many posters noticed the margin of error and the dates of the polls when debunking the results.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1147806

[CatWoman]

2. this story has been posted several times in GD2004

and it is not a true snapshot of Hawaii.

[ALago1]

3. No need to worry sir/madam

M.O.E = 4 points

Undecided = 12% (most likely vast majority will break for Kerry)

I wouldn't get upset over this one poll

[Almost_there]

4. The media have to make it interesting...

What was the last Democrat to lose Hawaii? Seriously, the people there are progressive and understanding, I truly wonder if a minority of Kerry supporters might actually say "I'm a votin' fer Dabya!" just so the polls do indeed get screwed up. I know if I were called that's probably what I'd do.. And is 600 people even statistically valid? That number seems awfully low.. I'm sure Kerry will do fine in Hawaii, I just can't envision it going red..

~Almost

[BentleyJD]

5. HOw in the hell

Can Hawaii go to Bush. They have a very interesting congress critter in Neil Aborcrombie (?) and their going to vote for this guy?
take care
tony and dietrich

[barbaraann]

6. There is a lot of rightwing hate radio in Hawaii.

God, I hope it hasn't converted a lot of Hawaiians!

[DebJ]

7. maybe pollsters want Kerry to sidetrack to Hawaii...he could hit

several continental states in that time!

[MallRat]

8. Polling Sample: Republicans 42%, Democrats 31%.

They didn't adjust party affiliation. It's a very bad sample.

-MR

[Nicholas_J]

23. This method of oversampling Republicans

in many polls is not having the effects Republicans have been looking for, which was to discourage Democrats into not voting, as it would be useless.

In fact I was just readin an article about Hawaii in which it appears that the percentage of voters actually voting this years may increase by 78 percent ot more than the percentage of voteres who voted in 2002. Democrats voting is supposed to increase by more than Republicans who eill be voting.

[d_b]

9. Right.

Hawaii is going for Bush like Alaska is going for Kerry.

[cliss]

10. Is this a battleground state?

If not, why are they lying like this? There's NO way Hawai'i is tied. Hawai'i has been a heavily Democratic state for quite a while now (they're smart! They're part of the U.S. LEFT COAST).

I don't believe it.

[neomonkey]

11. Is it bad polling or is there a electoral shift going on?

Look at what happened to the South.

I don't know much about the demographics of Hawaii. I'd be interested in finding out what kind of changes have happened there in the past decade.

Before we start deriding the polls and their methodology, we should also consider the less palatable explanation...that the Democatic Party is losing its hold on the state.

I live in L.A. and a good number of my friends/acquaintances are Asian, and many of them, especially the Japanese, are very Republican.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[neomonkey]

13. Oh cubsfan

First of all, I didn't have the opportunity to read about this "debunking" that happened last night. If I missed it, I will admit my error and gladly rescind my last post. I'm lazy right now, can you please point me in the correct direction?

Second of all, if my post even remotely qualifies me as freeper, then this world has truly gone to shit.

[CatWoman]

14. LOL

I still love you Neomonkey -- freeper or no. :D

[cubsfan forever]

15. I second CatWoman's take on this

Professor 2

[neomonkey]

17. Whew...the day I pass the Freeper Litmus test is the day I must be

sent to pasture :)

In all seriousness though, I realize that there are a multitude of polls out there masquerading as serious and accurate guages of public sentiment which might be nothing more than right-wing partisan brainwashing tools. Usually I examine the sources more thoroughly before arriving at any kind of conclusion or opinion.

In this case, I didn't do that.

I think I'll get off my lazy ass now and do some research on this mess...

[cliss]

16. Neo, just

looking at the number of your posts (1,000+) (who knows how many more!) disqualifies you as a Freeper.

I'd like to see the freeper that could endure posting 1,000 Freep comments without Exiting Stage Left from the heat. I've seen some pretty bitter battles in here.

:smoke:

[cubsfan forever]

18. Good point about the posts

and about Neo; I see what you mean. I was merely following Thoreau's advice: "The question is not are we busy, but rather what we are busy doing?"

Kudos to Neo

Professor 2

[marlakay]

19. Went to Hawaii for two weeks in sept

I talked to hundreds of locals on both Oahu & Kauai and not one of them is voting for Bush! I did see a few signs but overwhelmingly more for Kerry.

Most of the rich only go there to the houses a few weeks a year so vote in another state, so to me that leaves the military vote only that would be more for him and a lot of those vote from another state too. My daughter and son-n-law just moved there 3 months ago he is in Air force and she works downtown Honolulu for a big mortgage company run by ex military guy who hates Bush and everyone she works with is pro Kerry.

[Goathead]

20. Hawaii is going for Kerry

I think it is a scare tactic because we have a Repub. Governor. The only reason why is because the former Governor was part of this insanely corrupt "good-ole-boy" network and people wanted a change. It seems like everybody I have talked to is infuriated by the Bush administration and are enthusiastic about Kerry, that is on the Big Island. Politics is a tricky think in Hawaii, there is a lot of corruption on the state level here. A lot of politicians that are republicans act like democrats and vice versa. A lot of people have yard signs who live along the main highway here, but that is not an indication of who is more popular because the different candidates just go around and ask people who live on the highway if they can put the signs up in their yard and almost everybody says "yes", I have seen people that have signs for two candidates running against each other in the same yard. One good thing about the yard signs is that I have seen absolutely zero signs for Bush. I have seen only a few "W04" stickers in my community and that is because there is a large contingent of Ex-Alaskans that live in Ocean View. Not to worry, Hawaii is for Kerry.

[Native_Iowan]

21. If Kerry or Edwards Don't Visit...

Hawaii then you know we're safe. Unless their more reliable internal polls spell trouble, which I doubt, both Johns will be staying on the continent this week - and will probably send no heavyweight surrogates there either. That poll oversampled Republicans by more than double digits and Bush could only muster a tie. The Aloha State is safely blue.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

22. And this in a state that gave Kucinich one of his best showings?

I don't THINK so.

[Moderator]

24. Locking--day old news, not LBN

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