Kerry, Bush Even in FL, PA and OH, Polls Show

[CookieD]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aSpzfGKzH_yw&refer=top_world_news

Kerry, Bush Even in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, Polls Show
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Senator John Kerry pulled even with President George W. Bush in election polls in Florida, partly helped by a surge in newly registered voters, according to a survey done for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel newspaper.

The two candidates also are in statistical ties in surveys taken in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Both campaigns say the three states, which together have 68 of the 270 Electoral College votes need to win the presidency, are among the key battlegrounds for the Nov. 2 election.

[nirvana3240]

1. PENNSYLVANIA!?

NO NOT IN PA!!!!! WE WERE LEADING THERE!

[tedoll78]

2. Yup. PA is ours!

And most polls show Kerry up in Ohio narrowly at this point. The Chimp in Ohio is at dangerously-low numbers in the 40's now, making his loss there seem inevitable - especially in light of all of our newly-registered voters.

Meanwhile, in Florida, we've pulled-even (or perhaps slightly ahead within the margin) - and we're kickin' ass on early voting. People are waiting more than an hour to vote in Democratic areas today!

:D

[lancdem]

4. The poll they're referring to

has Kerry 48, Bush 46. Other polls have Kerry with a lead of around 5 points. Bush is not winning any state he gets 46 percent of the vote in.

[richmwill]

5. Again...

Why is it that again, as always, when Kerry is 2 points ahead of Chimp the headlines say "Bush, Kerry Tied In Swing States". But when Chimp gets a 1 point lead, the headline reads "Bush Pulls Away From Kerry In Presidential Race"?

[flowomo]

3. Bush has been pounding PA... two visits last week alone....

but if the big cities.... Philly/Pittsburg.... turn out.... it'll be Kerry's. Turnout, turnout, turnout!

[tedoll78]

6. Clinton is the nail in Bush's coffin there.

How very.. appropriate.. :P

[nirvana3240]

7. ha!

Yeah, I love puns on death

[Fed Up]

13. Chimpie's return visits as effective as Jimmy Carter's late campaigning

or Bush 41's.

People have had enough. Bush is grasping as straws. He's certainly not grasping new people.

[Nicholas_J]

8. Cherry picking among the polls again eh?

The average of all the last polls in PA give Kerry a six point lead in PA, a little less than a point in Ohio (given that one outlier poll shows Bush with a six point leadin one poll, skewing Ohio)
And the only one that is likely to be accurate is the FLorida poll.

In fact, most of the polls in PA over the last week have shown Bush's vistis having little or no effect in that state, and in Ohio, several Republican heavy polls have brought Kerry's average in that state down, but still keeping him in the lead. It seems obvious at this point that everytime polls show Kerry leading in these states. another pollster that oversamples Republicans jumps into the fray immediately and comse out with a poll showing Bush leading by using these oversampling methods.

[cubsfan forever]

9. You hit the nail on the head

They are indeed cherry-picking oversampled repug polls. PA is NOT in play! And OH is probably higher for Kerry that polls how. Florida? With Bozo's brother, who knows?

Professor 2

[Nicholas_J]

10. I was trying to get into realclearpolitics in order to get a list

of the latest polls for these states, but it just freezes right now.

When you look at the swing states, you get a lists showing most of the polls favirong Kerryand then one poll so skewed that it shows BUsh ahead by 5 or 6 points, skewing the average away from Kerry. Wisconsin is a good example of this 2 polls showing a tie, 2 polls showing Kerry 1 or 2 points ahead, then a recent Mason - Dixon poll showing BUsh with a 6 point lead, throwing the lead in that state to Bush even though all of the polls were done a day apart from that Mason DIxon poll. Very sneaky way to make it appear that Bush is doing better than he is.
There is simply no way in hell that within a 24 hour period, the polls would show such a large change unless the problem was in the poll itself.

Got in on my other computer

Every poll so far shows Kerry leading in PA

The newest Rasmussen, Kerry lead by 3 points.
Muhellenberg Kerry by 2 points
Quinnipiac Kerry by 5 points
Mason DIxon Kerry by 1 point
Survey USA Kerry by 6 points.


No polls showing a BUsh lead at all.

in Ohio The latest Scripps has Kerry head in Ohio by 4 points
Gallop, Kerry by 1 point
Faux has Bush ahead by 1 point
9in the last week 4 out of 7 polls favor Kerry)

Florida, the last few polls have either a tie, or Kerry ahead.
St Petersberg Times - TIE
Research 2000 Kerry ahead 1 point
Quinnipiac USA Bush ahead 1 point
Survey USA Kerry head 1 point
Mason Dixon Bush ahead 3 points (oldest of the polls)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#pa

Wisconsin polling is a joke:

CNN/Gallop...Bush ahead 6 points
Mason DIxon Tie
ARG TIE
U of Mich Bush Ahead 1 point
Rasmussen Kerry Aead 1 point.

SO you see the average is now skewed by the republican heavy Gallop, giving the state to Bush when Rewmoval of that outlier poll makes the state a dead heat.

[cubsfan forever]

11. Thanks for the info!

Professor 2

[6th Borough]

12. Also ignoring the issue polls.

In Florida, the Economy ranked #1, followed by Iraq. As for Iraq, over 50% of those polled thought <i>both</i> that it was not worth fighting and that Shrub has handled it poorly.

Homeland Security is ranked higher that The War on Terror.

Also, this was only amongst likely voters who have a history of voting. I believe that, what with the new registrants and a more motivated group of voters, the erosion in the Cuban vote, COMBINED with the 2 million+ new residents we've gotten since 2002 (majority of which aren't deep fried southerners) and the issues of importance...I would be far from shocked for FL to go Kerry by a good sized spread.

As far as the "fix" goes, think about how much time he has spent down here. If he didn't spend half of his campaign scedule in Florida, he could be putting much more effort into Colorado, Ohio, New Mexico, etc.

[nolabels]

14. In Antarctica, the pole is at the center except ...........

For people without dry socks :scared:



http://www.bedouinboundaries.com/journal/300club.htm

[JCMach1]

15. The story that shadows this one... Bush losing in PA,OH,andFL

that's what these numbers mean.

[johnnyrocket]

16. PA and OH are in the bag, we've got to squeak out FL...

that's the only nail biter.

[snooper2]

17. Just like the media whores want it...

I know they are just chomping at the bit for another Florida 2000 debacle....

[Almost_there]

18. I'm still not sure why anyone is paying attention to polls..

I don't know why people are paying attention to some polls and ignoring others. Polls don't mean crap until the person pulls the lever. I'm sure the right wingnuts can pull poll after poll showing Bush ahead by 124 points in Ohio, MA, CA, and Hawaii. They don't matter until all is said and done next Tuesday. If you believe these polls, or believe that they are run by a right wing splinter group of Neo Con Nazis, come on. They are simply general indicators that are off by a margin of error automatically. The ONLY poll I'll pay attention to and stake my reputation on comes out November 3rd.

~Almost

[demokatgurrl]

19. Not good... too ripe for the stealin. We need a BIG margin. n/t