STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 25 October

[ozymandius]

Monday October 25, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 87
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 8
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 318 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 7 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1068
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 24, 2004

Dow... 9,757.81 -107.95 (-1.09%)
Nasdaq... 1,915.14 -38.48 (-1.97%)
S&P 500... 1,095.74 -10.75 (-0.97%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.98% -0.01 (-0.33%)
Gold future... 425.60 UNCH (UNCH)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

1. Future's all point Down

Energy Up, dollar weaker, hmmm, just another bushco business day:eyes:

[nolabels]

9. This could be a bad Monday for them day traders

A lot of stuff looks down (at least I would be betting that way). Most of the news on the international over the weekend looked yucky, how that translates into pent up momentum on todays trades might be interesting.


http://yorick.infinitejest.org:81/1/cards.html

http://www.bushnetwork.com/index2.php

[lil-petunia]

2. Remember the Seaview? Voyage to the bottom of the Sea

Or as our market wakes up, "Dive, Dive, Dive!"

just like our dollar, and therefore our stock market.
Watch gas rise like a hot air balloon.

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

currently off it lows:

Last trade 84.95 Change -0.92 (-1.07%)

Settle 85.87 Settle Time 23:36

Open 85.13 Previous Close 85.87

High 85.65 Low 84.75

Dollar Traders Increasingly Bearish on Currency, Survey Shows

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ah7w1gKtkmVw&refer=news_index

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is likely to drop on concern that international investors are scaling back purchases of U.S. assets, according to a Bloomberg survey of currency traders and strategists.

Sixty-three percent of the people polled Oct. 22 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro, the most in five months. The survey also indicated the dollar will drop versus the yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar.

<snip>

``We expect the bear market in the dollar to continue its downward trend through the fourth quarter,'' said Upadhyaya, who oversees a currency portfolio of $10 billion. The dollar may drop to $1.2850 per euro and 105 yen by year-end, he said.

<snip>

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., UBS AG, Bank of America Corp. and BNP Paribas SA cut their forecasts for the dollar last week. The banks pared estimates after the Treasury Department said Oct. 18 that foreign purchases of U.S. Treasuries, corporate debt and stocks rose $59 billion in August, the least in 10 months.

``The dollar downtrend has totally come back into play and we have to hold our hands up and say our previous forecast concept failed completely,'' said Hans Guenter Redeker, head of currency strategy at BNP in London.

...more...

Money Supply, the Dollar, and Gold:

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100480/content.asp?menu=review&dia=25102004

excerpt:

M-3 fell 35.4 billion last week, and hasn't budged since July 19th - three months ago. Our research shows whenever M-3 rises for two or more months, equities rise, and whenever M-3 declines or plateaus for two or more months, equities decline. Thus, M-3's lack of growth supports our intermediate- term view of an equity market decline.

We've been expecting the Dollar to break below both its Symmetrical Triangle pattern and the neckline of its Head & Shoulders Top pattern for a while, and this week it finally did. The tradeweighted U.S. Dollar fell sharply to close the week at 85.77. This decisive move south confirms the Head & Shoulders pattern as complete, increasing the probability that the minimum downside target for this highly reliable pattern will be met, which is 82.00.

The Elliott Wave count we've believed to be most accurate for the Dollar pointed toward this week's decline, and shows that prices have further to fall. Intermediate degree waves 1 down, 2 up, 3 down, and 4 up of a five-wave primary trend decline are in the books. Where we are now is the middle of minor degree wave 3 down of intermediate degree wave 5 down of primary degree wave (1) down. The trend-channel and this count suggests prices could fall even further than the Head & Shoulders pattern suggests, possibly as low as the mid to high 70s. But it could take a while. The MACD is negative with momentum down hard. The RSI is oversold, but not at the level seen last January, thus could go lower before a corrective bounce pushes it higher. And the 50 Day MA crossed below the 200 Day.

Here's the problem. A falling U.S. Dollar puts the greenback at risk of losing its world reserve status. Further, a declining Dollar means foreign holders of financial assets such as stocks and bonds see their value fall on a currency exchange basis. It could put fear into foreign holders, enough to make them pare back their holdings, or heaven forbid, dump. This is what record trade and budget deficits accomplish. This is what exportation of our manufacturing base causes. But this is glorious for Gold.

Gold has retraced more than a normal Fibonacci .786 of the move down from April through May 2004, and seems ready to challenge the Double Top. A decisive break above 425 would be Bullish. The MACD refuses to roll over and the RSI is heading back up toward overbought levels. If prices can remain above 370, Gold remains Bullish. If prices can remain above the bottom trend-line, above 392, Gold would look strong. A push above 433 would negate the Bearish Double Top pattern with an all-clear signal for higher prices. The long-term trend is up.

...more...

Get Used to the “I” Word Again

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/defaultnew.asp?f=N20041024D.mgn

As the dollar deepens its slide to multi-month-lows against the major currencies, and the economies of Europe and Japan continue to struggle in making a clean recovery, currency traders should start getting used to hearing the word intervention more often this week and the next. Rather than merely uttering the word “intervention”, government officials will start by “threatening” to do so, which should be sufficient in triggering knee-jerk declines in the euro and the yen. But with the dollar’s structural bear market in full swing, and pre-election uncertainty heading nowhere but up, speculators will likely remain relentless in driving down the dollar, thus, causing monetary official to come up with more than threats.

The Bank of Japan’s last intervention was in March, when it asserted that it would reduce its interference in the market after the new fiscal year—beginning in April. The main reason the dollar did not continue to fall after the BoJ backed away in later March were the emerging signs of a Fed rate hike, reflected in strong April and May jobs numbers as well evidence of emerging inflation. But with inflation dissipating and the economic slowdown taking a stronger hold, speculators might force the hand of the central banks.

This week’s expected decline in US consumer confidence could further pressure the dollar, while Fridays’ release of the advanced Q3 GDP figures may do little to alter sentiment despite an expected increase to 4.3% from 3.3%. Australia’s CPI report, the Fed’s Beige Book should also be essential to solidifying sentiment. Yet, it’s more likely that FX intervention rhetoric will prevail in importance during the week.

...more...

Today's Report:

Oct 25 10:00 AM
Existing Home Sales Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 6.60M
market anticipates 6.54M
last report 6.54M
revised -

Lots of anxiety in the air today (hopefully just my own).

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

16. Morning UIA and all. Boy that US$ chart was looking pretty ugly

until 6:30am or so. M-3 is down? Do you suppose it has something to do with Ben using those fresh greenbacks to buy back Treasuries instead of pumping up the banks? :shrug:

I've been holding out for gold to go on sale under $390, but that looks less likely everyday. Oh well.

Personally, I think the only intervention that is going to help us now is that of the Divine persuasion. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

32. I wondered if that Housing Report was going to help

the dollar, but alas

10:12am 10/25/04 DOLLAR FALLS TO $1.2785 PER EURO AND TO 106.66 YEN

10:11am 10/25/04 RISE IN EXISTING HOMES SALES DOESN'T CURB DOLLAR'S DROP

[54anickel]

35. Greenback may dive 20-30% in two years

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,133295,00.html?

(SINGAPORE) The US dollar could be headed for a severe fall of 20 to 30 per cent in the next 12 to 24 months as the American economy's chronic imbalances continue to mount in size, a senior economic adviser of Swiss banking giant UBS has warned.

Meanwhile, US domestic savings as a percentage of national income has fallen to their lowest levels since the 1930s and, most importantly, compensating capital inflows from overseas may not be able to keep pace indefinitely. For example, he said: 'We've calculated that the rest of the world will have to grow three times as fast as the US just in order for the US deficits to stabilise.'

The euro and Japanese yen should be at the forefront of beneficiaries from such a sharp US dollar slide, Mr Magnus suggested in a lunch-time address to the bank's wholesale clients in Singapore.

'Something has to give,' he said, if the US imbalances and investment-savings gap continue to grow, especially because the US has become too dependent on official inflows - particularly from Asian central banks.

snip>

Gold may not be the best hedge against further falls in the international value of the greenback, said Mr Magnus, as inflationary pressures are not likely to be a significant factor in the coming year.

'Better hedges against further US dollar weakness could be the euro, sterling pound, Swiss franc, and commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars,' he told BT after the luncheon address.

more...

[54anickel]

47. Interest rate disconnect (Gold-buggy, but interesting)

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/oct252004.html

snip>

One possible reason bond investors are betting on higher interest rates is the US budget deficit. The budget deficit has to be financed by issuing US Treasury bonds and an increase in bond issuances should cause bond prices to fall and interest rates to rise, leading to a decline in the gold price.

However, the growing budget deficit is a major problem for the United States. It, and the trade deficit, will ultimately lead to the disconnect between the dollar-exchange rate and interest rates. Because the budget deficit has to be financed by issuing Treasury bonds it will put upward pressure on interest rates. This occurs because issuing bonds, especially in the amount required to finance the budget deficit, will put downward pressure on bond prices and interest rates are nothing more than the yield in debt instruments, such as bonds. So when bond prices decline, as they will because of the budget deficit, interest rates will rise.

Financing the budget deficit is a long-term problem for the US and it cannot be avoided given the government’s current policies, which are unlikely to change much regardless of who wins the election. Because of this I believe that interest rates in the US will increase irrespective of whether the economy can cope with higher rates or not. When interest rates start to rise the dollar could potentially rally driving the gold price down.

However, rising interest rates will wreak havoc on the fragile US economy. As the economy weakens it will become more and more difficult to attract sufficient foreign capital investment to offset the trade deficit. Once that happens the US dollar will fall and, no, I don’t think China, Japan and the United Kingdom are going to support the dollar forever.

It is this combination of rising interest rates, from bond issuances to finance the budget deficit, and a falling dollar resulting from continued weakness in the US economy accompanied by declining foreign investment that will lead to a disconnect between the US dollar and interest rates. And that will set up the next major increase in the gold price.

Under this scenario the dollar will fall in conjunction with rising interest rates; the opposite of what is happening now...

more...

[UpInArms]

4. Treasurys chalk up weekly gain on rise in oil

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=23648210&brk=1

important excerpt:

The Treasury market also drew support from the currency market, with revived speculation that the Bank of Japan would intervene if the dollar fell much below 107 yen, a move that could spur fresh investment in U.S. debt. See currencies.

The dollar's slippage "is building expectations of more BoJ and possibly even European Central Bank intervention in the foreign exchange markets, which will mean more intervention proceeds to make their way into bonds," said Michael Cartine, a Thomson Financial analyst.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. Oil prices at high on Norway fear

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3950117.stm

US oil prices have hit new highs on fears that a shipping strike in Norway could severely disrupt supplies from the world's third largest exporter.

New York light crude touched $55.53 a barrel in electronic trading on Monday, passing the previous $55.50 high.

Ship owners have threatened to cut off output next month to protest about a labour dispute involving rig workers.

The action, scheduled for 8 November, could disrupt Norway's daily output of three million barrels.

Oil prices have risen steadily in recent days, fuelled by rising US heating oil prices, continuing violence in Iraq, and strong demand from China.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Crude Oil at $55.25 bbl

10:00am 10/25/04 DEC CRUDE UP 8C AT $55.25/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

[UpInArms]

36. Oil hits fresh ground near $56, then falls

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38285.4411342593-824640902&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil futures reached fresh ground near $56 a barrel, then slipped back as traders eyed a threatened strike by Norwegian shipowners. "Extreme market volatility will reign over this market until some certainty can be made out of what is to come," said Michael Cavanaugh, an analyst at MyFuturesOnline.com. But "with demand still strong and now a new bullish factor in the equation (Norway), I would expect the market to charge higher into Wednesday's supply data," he said. December crude traded as high as $55.67 a barrel in overnight trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest intraday level ever. But the contract was last at $54.75, down 42 cents.

[UpInArms]

6. Gas Average Tops $2 Per Gallon -Survey

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6590986

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The average U.S. retail price of gasoline rose more than 5 cents in the past two weeks to more than $2 a gallon, its highest level since June, a leading industry analyst said on Sunday.

The national average price for self-serve regular unleaded gasoline was $2.0408 on Oct. 22, up 5.18 cents per gallon since Oct. 8, driven by record high crude oil prices, according to the twice-a-month Lundberg survey of 7,000 U.S. gas stations.

"Short term, it is very possible retail gas prices might rise a bit further," but then would soon peak, survey editor Trilby Lundberg said in an interview.

The city with the highest average self-serve pump price was again San Diego at $2.45 per gallon, while the lowest average price was $1.83 per gallon, in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. SEC Pounces on Ford and GM, the 800-Pound Gorillas: Doron Levin

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_levin&sid=ah0JKI_FzBjw

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. automakers, wobbling under crushing employee benefit costs, now have a new worry: The federal government is determined to find out whether the costs are accounted for fairly and properly.

That isn't the federal ``solution'' that Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. have in mind and have asked for, to resolve more than $100 billion of post-retirement health obligations, mostly unfunded.

Most analysts agree that the automakers are headed in the same direction as bankrupt airlines, steelmakers and other old- line manufacturing companies unless a plan is devised to shrink their liabilities or pay them.

Ford, GM, Delphi Inc., Boeing Co. and Northwest Airlines last week disclosed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission have requested information as part of an informal inquiry into the various financial assumptions used to estimate the size of their pension and health-care obligations.

The assumptions -- such as the projected annual return of pension fund assets -- are critical because they speak to the estimated present value of the liabilities, the amount of money companies must set aside annually and, therefore, how much is left as income. If assumptions aren't realistic, companies might be far more profitable -- or far less valuable -- than investors realize.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Citigroup to shut Japan trust bank, promises oversight

http://olympics.reuters.com/advisorToolkit/newsArticle.jhtml?type=fundsNews&storyID=6596839

TOKYO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday it would shutter part of its Japanese trust business and promised sharper oversight of its remaining operations, after a scandal led to the closure of its private bank in the country.

Chief Executive Charles "Chuck" Prince, in Tokyo to mend fences with Japanese officials, bowed deeply at a news conference and pledged to "take all necessary steps to ensure business is properly conducted."

"I sincerely apologise to customers and the public," Prince, a lawyer who has sought to rid Citigroup of regulatory problems since taking the helm last year, said. "I wish that we had done this earlier."

The world's largest financial services firm said it would close Cititrust and Banking Corp., which offers investment and estate-planning services for wealthy clients and shares customers with the private bank. It will transfer clients out of the entity over the next 12 months.

<snip>

The closure of Cititrust comes after regulators revoked the private bank's licence in September, citing manipulative sales and lending practices and lax controls against money-laundering.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. bring in the clowns

Smith Barney gets bullish on chips; upgrades 15 stocks ($SOX, TXN, ALTR, IDTI, FSL, ADI, FCS, IRF, MCRL, NSM, STM, UMC, SPIL, STTS) By Susan Lerner
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Smith Barney got bullish on the chip sector Monday, boosting its recommendation on 15 stocks in the group around the globe. "While potentially early, given the continuing onslaught of negative news in the current environment, evidence is mounting to suggest sustainable appreciation in semiconductor stocks is likely, tilting the balnace of risk/reward in favor of investors being overweight the sector as we head into 2005," analyst Glen Yeung wrote in a research note. The broker noted that semiconductor stocks historically outperform in periods of stabilization like that envisioned for 2005, adding that "atypically swift corrective action by (the) industry is accelerating the bottoming process."

...more...

[Renew Deal]

11. I had a dream about the Loonie

Now I barely know what the Loonie is but I saw a newspaper headline that said something like: Loonie Soars.

It's just a dream, but it could be trauma from this...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=923873&mesg_id=924603&page=

[KoKo]

12. What an incredible "toon" today! Anyone who has worked in a lab will

find this a "hoot." "Private Enterprise...entrepreneur's," indeed! :D

[ozymandius]

13. Good morning all.

The news about 300 tons of super high explosives is simply outrageous. I read this story last night and my anger has not abated one whit since then. How else can we regard this event except as additional evidence to the collossal incompetence and failure of the Bush administration.

With images of the Lockerbie bombing fresh in our collective memory (12 ounces of the same explosive was used to bring down the jetliner)- this evokes an appropriate sense of viceral rage against those responsible for the debacle. Namely, the Bush adminstration officials who lead the charge into this illegal war.

Consider the irony: Bush invaded a sovereign nation based on his assertion that Iraq held weapons of mass destruction. Bush's additional claim was that the Hussein regime aided terrorists. Though none of those claims proved to be true -- Bush's actions have done exactly what he ostensibly sought to avoid. These super high explosives are essential to the triggering process in a nuclear weapon. These explosives are in the hands of what Bush terms "terrorists". These explosives are being used to kill American soldiers who should not be there in the first place. These explosives are being used to kill innocent civilians, peripherally thus growing the ranks of the insurgency and driving people, who were previously unswayed to the notion, toward militant Islam.

This explosive can be easily transported across borders. Civilian populations are at risk. Enough said.

Now -- while this screed sounds like a big old Fie! to the Bush administration, this is relative to the markets IMO. How can one expect to get a drop of precious oil out of Iraq if there are over 300 tons dispersed throughout the country? The claim has been made that many of the pipeline bombings have used this stuff. Plenty more exists in the world to do successive damage to critical oil pipelines.

There's a strike in Norway's oil industry.

Hold onto something sturdy. The markets hate uncertainty. The issues surrounding oil have not finished inflicting the carnage already begun.

[54anickel]

22. Ozy, did you happen to see this thread regarding that CIA report?

Why is the press not all over this one as well? The missing explosives were nothing new to most DUers, but again was something hidden and buried by the press and mal-admin. This sort of crap only resurfaces sooner or later, and the longer they bury it - like the explosives reports - the more damaging it is to the US as a whole.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x928497

[ozymandius]

30. So Porter Goss is above politics, eh?

This sounds like more of the same retribution for disloyalty toward this failed administration.

Thank you for this. I otherwise may have missed it.

[54anickel]

46. You're welcome. I am more than happy to get that thread a bit of extra

attention as we near the election. Why is it anytime light is shed on an attempted cover-up by this mal-admin, the defense is to cry "politicking". Just was the cover-up to begin with? :grr:

[ozymandius]

14. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT

For today’s piece I want to do something just a little different. I want to share an article with you that I recently read. This article is on market psychology by Edson Gould and is titled My Most Important Discovery. This article is quoted from Mr. Gould’s 1976 report titled A Vital Anatomy. Tim W. Wood

My Most Important Discovery
By Edson Gould

My first ten years on Wall Street, during the 1920’s, were spent working at Moody’s, primarily for Paul Clay, a brilliant economist and market forecaster.

Much as I respected Clay, much as I admired some of his work, especially his long-term forecast, it became increasingly evident to me that he was missing something.

He concentrated primarily on forecasting business and monetary conditions, and he was good at both, probably the best around. Then he would transmute his findings into stock market views. His long-term forecasts of stock market trends were excellent, his intermediate-term forecasts fair, but his short-term views left much to be desired.

-cut-

So, I came to the conclusion, a conclusion that has since become a conviction, that the stock market is essentially the result of three sets of factors that may be grouped under the headings: economic, monetary and psychological, the latter relating to crowd psychology.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[0007]

15. The cartoon may be the only thing to laugh about today.

This could be BLACKMonday.

[UpInArms]

17. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:17 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Cash market is expected to start the day on a downward note, but consolidation activity in the steel sector and an underlying sense that the Dow may find some support after moving to new lows on Friday are helping to keep selling efforts in check

8:56 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -3.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Futures market is off its worst levels of the morning, but continues to presage a negative start for the cash market... Consolidation activity in the steel industry (Ispat Intl. (IST) and LNM Holdings to merge and then acquire International Steel (ISG) in a combined transaction that totals approximately $17.8 bln in stock and cash) has provided a measure of support

8:32 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -4.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Cash market still poised to start the day on a lower note as the futures market retains its negative bias... Existing Home Sales is the only economic report to be released today and will be out at 10:00 ET; consensus estimate is 6.54 mln... Not much in the way of earnings news that has excited the market this morning, but bear in mind that Dow component American Express (AXP) is expected to report its results during the trading day

8:02 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -4.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. Negative tone in the futures market is expected to lead to a negative start for the cash market.... Bearish disposition being linked to rising oil prices, weakness in foreign markets, uninspiring earnings news, and recognition that Dow moved to new lows for the year on Friday

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to spillover selling following last Friday's downside reversal and is breaking out below initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1445.10. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below this month's low crossing at 1419 would confirm a breakout below the August-September uptrend line thereby signaling that a double top has been posted. Closes above last week's high crossing at 1482.50 are needed to keep the rally off August's low alive. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 10.00 pts. at 1433.50 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline and is breaking out below the 62% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 1092.90. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, a test of the 75% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 1080.90 later this fall. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1105.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was down 5.70 pts. at 1090.20 as of 5:55 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[ozymandius]

18. The word on the street --

says that stocks will open lower due to rising oil prices, shortages from Norway's strike and already tight supplies.

[TahitiNut]

19. "Norway's strike"? - It's NOT A 'STRIKE'! It's a threatened LOCKOUT.

Please, guys ... let's not repeat the presstitute disinformation.

[ozymandius]

28. Thanks for the correction. Do you have a link? n/t

[54anickel]

29. Norwegian oil production faces total paralysis after lock-out threat

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=5&u=/afp/20041025/bs_afp/norway_energy_oil_strike_041025101405

OSLO (AFP) - Norway's oil production faces a total shutdown in mid-November after oil sector shipowners threatened to stage a lock-out to end a strike that has weighed on the industry since July.

"The impact of this secondary lockout, which comes into force from midnight (2200 GMT) Monday, November 8, 2004, will then have immediate effect, and bring the production of oil and gas on the Norwegian shelf to a standstill within a week," the Norwegian shipowners association (NSA) said in a statement.

snip>

NSA, the shipowners association that includes companies that serve the oil industry, said its "sympathy lock-out" would suspend activities on 94 of its ships.


With the lock-out, the association is hoping for a quick end to its conflict with the Oljearbeidernes Fellessammenslutning labor union.


OFS is demanding that the conditions enjoyed by its members when they are working offshore apply as well when ships are travelling to a site or are under repair.

more...

[TahitiNut]

40. Even the Reuters wire report that uses 'strike' in the headline ...

... describes it as a lockout by the owners of the shipping companies in the body of the story. It's a blatant example of the 'management' of the media (Reuters in this case) putting a right-wing spin on news. (It's the managing editors who spin headlines.)

(Thanks, 54anickel!)

[UpInArms]

51. Forbes: Shipowners Association May Expand Lockout

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2004/10/25/ap1607836.html

The Norwegian Shipowners Association threatened on Monday to lock out more oil and gas rig workers, a move analysts said could result in a near shutdown of the third-largest petroleum exporter's production and drive world oil prices even higher.

Norway's Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, Dagfinn Hoeybraaten, told both sides to meet late Monday afternoon about the dispute, a move that would effectively avoid any production cuts and preserve the country's main source of revenue.

The move by the employers to extend the lockout to include 94 oil and gas service vessels by Nov. 8 was in response to the 4-month strike by members of the Federation of Oil Workers' Union.

"A small group, which represents less than 20 percent of the employees, has put the entire industry under pressure in order to force through demands that they know the Norwegian Shipowners Association cannot approve without considerably weakening the industry's competitive ability," said Marianne Lie, the group's chief executive.

Terje Nustad, head of the OFS, said the lockout was unlikely to lead to any more cuts in Norway's nearly 3.2 million barrel daily oil production because the government was likely to force both sides to the bargaining table before any cutbacks in production could occur.

...more...

[54anickel]

20. Central Banking is a Speculation

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=36954

snip>

Let's be clinical. There was no change in the basic definitions of money as M1, M2, M3, etc., but after a brief pause in 1981-1982 monetary expansion resumed its relentless pace. Instead of driving commodities and inflation (which was bad), it was driving the stock market, which was good, and naturally the result of brilliant policy. Interventionist economists have yet to explain how, in one decade, vigorous expansion of, say, M2 results in soaring prices for tangible assets, which trashes bonds and then in the next it ramps up stock and bond prices.

Of course, history provides clarity and consistency. Since 1700, every "old" era of inflation has been followed by a "new" era of soaring financial markets – the 1990s example was the sixth and the transition was always the same but with the distinction that prior to the 20th century policymakers didn't take the credit for a natural turn in the financial markets.

Going back to 1981 - 1982, institutions had finally accepted that the Fed was the engine of inflation and lousy returns from stocks and bonds would continue. At the time, our summary of the instruction from history was "no matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities".

This was controversial, as is history's current instruction that as today's speculative action in both tangible and financial assets burns out, Mr. Market will again deny the Fed's compulsion to trash the dollar.

snip>

More specifically, the literature, and this needs emphasis, provides no evidence in real time that the senior central bank deliberately moved to end the prosperity of the mania in financial assets. Indeed, there is evidence, such as in 1720 and 2000, that vigorous efforts were made to keep the boom going, but the duration was not extended. Moreover, when the senior central bank was acting responsibly under a sound money regime, the duration of a great financial mania was not shortened. However, when "accommodation" prevailed, it exaggerated speculation which, in turn, exacerbated the consequent contraction.

more...

[54anickel]

23. The Dollar, Financial “Profits” and Reflation

Scroll to the last section of the page - interesting stuff on the way down to this article as well.

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

It’s been some time since I partook in a bout of fruitless shadow sparing with my “analytical nemesis” Paul McCulley. But I have a fundamental disagreement with his analysis that I believe lies at the very heart of the most important economic issue of our time. Mr. McCulley is (from reading his latest) determined to “dig in his heels,” and so will doug. He believes the Fed executed sound policy in fighting “deflation” back in 2002. My view is that the Fed recklessly stoked Credit Bubble blow-off excesses – especially throughout mortgage finance and leveraged speculation. He believes the Greenspan Fed made things better, while I believe the Fed’s reflation strategy greatly compounded previous policy mistakes and exacerbated systemic fragilities. There can be no reconciliation of these diametrically-opposed policy views today, tomorrow or the next day. One of us is going to be “proved” wrong. (And I plan on fighting historical revisionism, Fed apologists and neo-Friedmanites as long as anyone will read my analysis).

As an analyst, ideology is The Seductive Antagonist. It is there to bias my objectivity and provide a convenient blurred lens with which my mind is happy to use to fabricate a view of the world and how it works (while fellow ideologues rejoice and adulate). I am certainly not a Keynesian, although I similarly wouldn’t subscribe to an ideology that yearns to burn him at the stake. Keynes was a great economist. And I will go further by stating my view that there is a time and place for aggressive “Keynesian” government intervention. Politicians are bound to make mistakes, as are monetary policymakers, bankers, businesspersons, market participants and markets – although the determined goal must be to avoid major errors. In a post-Bubble environment, monetary and fiscal stimulation hold the potential to play a constructive role in supporting spending, buttressing confidence and medicating a sick Credit system.

Still, much rests on a paramount issue: While aggressive stimulation (monetary as well as fiscal) may prove helpful in a post-Bubble environment, it is at the same time most harmful during the Bubble. Aggressive stimulation must be administered with great forethought and circumspection. Like war, there must be a plan to “win the peace” – ensure that stimulation is fostering sound Monetary Processes, as opposed to dysfunctional speculation and asset inflation – and there must be an endgame. There is great systemic risk in directing overwhelming force against the wrong target.

Moreover, I will argue strongly that “Keynesian” stimulation is surreptitiously destructive and potentially disastrous when it prolongs and exacerbates late-stage excesses, distortions and imbalances. And as inherently mesmerizing as this process – fighting the inevitable consequences of faltering Bubbles with only more potent stimulation - becomes for politicians, the prospering business and market “class,” an increasingly indebted and inflated asset-exposed general populace, and error-prone (and nervous) central bankers, great care must be taken to avoid a quagmire. The late-twenties period provides a poignant case in point. And we conveniently disregarded the lesson from Japan as to how important it is to avoid financial and economic Bubbles. In fact, our policymakers took “lessons not learned” to a whole new level by concocting a theory that aggressive stimulation early is the best remedy – “Keynesianism” and analysis at their absolute worst. There will be a huge cost for wasting most of our policy ammo.

It therefore becomes a requisite focal point of both analysis and policymaking to study and address Bubble dynamics. Most regrettably, the Greenspan Fed has abrogated its responsibility with its fallacious assertion that Bubbles are recognizable only after the fact. Meanwhile, virtually all analysts having anything to do with Wall Street, the lending business or the general Credit system similarly keep their distance from Bubble examination and contemplation – at least publicly. It is, after all, more expedient to parse the problem and solution in terms of “fighting deflation” (who in this country doesn’t think that is a good idea?), while driving us smack into an analytical and policy dead end.

more...

[UpInArms]

21. 9:35 EST markets are open

Dow 9,736.13 -21.68 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,909.27 -5.87 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,092.65 -3.09 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 3.945% -0.039

NYSE Volume 31,287,000
Nasdaq Volume 62,803,000

[UpInArms]

24. 9:56 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,716.59 -41.22 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,906.28 -8.86 (-0.46%)
S&P 500 1,091.13 -4.61 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 3.953% -0.031

NYSE Volume 138,294,000
Nasdaq Volume 193,561,000

9:45AM: Stock market opens on a weak note as the indices remain weighed down by oil concerns... The commodity has touched another record high as worries mount about a possible petroleum-industry strike in Norway and data showing that China's demand for oil is likely to rise... The dollar has actually dropped for its 9th day in a row on such oil-related fears... Other than that, earnings reports have been less numerous than in past sessions although analyst activity has been just as robust... Smith Barney upgraded 15 semiconductor stocks, and that has helped put a sold bid in that group...

Elsewhere, the one economic report of the day - Sept Existing Home Sales - will be released at 10 ET.... The consensus estimate is 6.54 mln

[ozymandius]

34. Every point in the red is a de-merit for the failed Bush administration.

So now that we see shit hitting the proverbial fan one week away from the election - I welcome the tumult as Bush does not have time to recover and spin. There arenot enough broadcast hours in the day to spin a recovery from an outright hemmorhage of domestic and foreign accounts.

[UpInArms]

25. Housing Report In - 6.75 million vs 6.54 projected

10:00am 10/25/04 U.S. SEPT. MEDIAN HOME PRICE UP 8.6% YR OVER YR

10:00am 10/25/04 U.S. SEPT. EXISTING HOME SALES UP 3.1% TO 6.75 MLN

[54anickel]

27. Free enterprise for now

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

The U.S. car industry is all sales and no profit. Imports continue to steal market share, and now that foreign car companies have figured out how to make trucks, even more market share is at risk unless Detroit comes up with the next hot genre, like a car with a periscope that lets you see over SUVs without having to actually buy one.

Part of the problem is that American car makers have to pay customers to buy their cars, figuring that’s it better to keep the per unit production costs down and try to make a buck or two on the financing end of things. According to the New York Times, Ford is spending $4,048 on rebates and incentives while GM is forking over $4,593. Japanese car makers are playing the rebate game too, but only handing out about $900.

All that rebating is challenging enough, but now the SEC’s dowsers are pointing their forked sticks at Ford's and GM’s pension plan accounting. According to news reports, the government wants to make sure there’s no earnings-smoothing going on by finagling the actuarial assumptions. Evidently, the SEC is looking at companies where a little finagling would mean a lot, and auto companies with their giant pension obligations fall into that category.

While it would be shocking if a U.S. corporation were more interested in making the Street’s number than in accurate accounting, the SEC may be trying to get their foot in the door as Arbiter of Reasonable Assumptions (ARA). That’s because by assuming a hefty return on pension plan assets, a company can reduce the cost of the benefits recorded on the financial statements. And that’s because a higher return tomorrow will lower your benefit costs today.

But no matter how they account for it, there’s only word to describe the future obligations of U.S. auto companies: Huge.

more...

[54anickel]

31. Global: Cracked Facade

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041025-mon.html#anchor0

The delicate equilibrium in world financial markets may be starting to unravel. The dollar has broken out of its recent range, credit spreads are widening, equities are sagging, and riskless sovereign bonds are well bid. The message is worrisome: For an unbalanced and increasingly vulnerable world economy, the unrelenting rise of oil prices spells mounting risks of global recession in 2005. Financial markets are only just beginning to comprehend this possibility.

There are lots of moving parts to this story. But the one that intrigues me the most right now is the dollar — down 3% against the euro and nearly 4% against the yen in the past two-and-a-half weeks. In my view, this move in the dollar is a “drop in the bucket” for a US economy with a 5.7% current account deficit that could easily climb in the 6.5% to 7.0% zone in the next year. The problem, of course, is that my currency view has been a lonely one over the past nine months. The Teflon-like greenback has begun to reverse some the depreciation of the previous couple of years — unwinding about three percentage points of the 13% real trade-weighted decline that had occurred since early 2002. But in recent weeks, I have felt less lonely, as the official community — both in the US and around the world — has come out in the open in expressing concerns about America’s gaping twin deficits and what they mean for the dollar. Fedspeak has been especially focused on this issue, with at least five Federal Reserve governors and regional bank presidents weighing in on this key risk. I don’t believe in conspiracy theories, but I don’t think this collective expression of concern is an accident.

A weaker dollar has long been the centerpiece of my global rebalancing framework. Macro deals best with global imbalances by changing the world’s relative price structure. With the dollar the world’s most important relative price, depreciation is a perfectly natural way for the global economy to restore some semblance of equilibrium. But don’t expect the world to turn on a dime in response to currency changes. In fact, it has become increasingly clear over the past decade that trade flows and inflation are a good deal less sensitive to currency fluctuations than was the case earlier. In my view, a weaker dollar would, instead, be more of a signaling mechanism — sparking a back-up in US real interest rates as foreign creditors demand compensation for taking currency risk. For an overly-indebted US economy, higher real interest rates would impair credit-sensitive domestic demand, boost national saving, and reduce America’s claim on external saving. These are the characteristics of a classic current-account adjustment.

Yet the world has resisted this adjustment. That’s been especially the case in Asia. Lacking in support from domestic demand, the Asian currency bloc has basically refused to participate in the dollar’s depreciation, putting a disproportionate share of the burden on the euro. Since the dollar’s peak in early 2002, the trade-weighted euro has risen about 20% (in real terms), whereas the trade-weighted yen — a good proxy for Asian currencies — has been basically unchanged. I have referred to the Asian currency zone increasingly as a renminbi bloc, underscoring the key role that China’s currency peg plays in inhibiting other Asian economies from suffering any competitive disadvantage with the region’s super-competitive trading powerhouse. Recent warnings of renewed currency intervention by Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki underscore Asia’s renewed conviction to resist currency-induced global rebalancing.

more...

[UpInArms]

33. 10:20 EST numbers and blather (market recovering nicely)

Dow 9,748.81 -9.00 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,914.31 -0.83 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,093.30 -2.44 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 3.958% -0.026

NYSE Volume 260,676,000
Nasdaq Volume 324,344,000

10:00AM: Indices slide lower as sellers continue to take the majority of most industry groups lower... Biotech, brokerage, and retail have fallen noticeably (1% or more) and have been joined by drug, defense, cyclical, and pockets of technology such as computer hardware, software, and disk drive... Buying in semiconductor, homebuilding, airline, basic material, energy, and utility have offset the selling some though... Homebuilding and utility have benefited from an uptick in the treasury market... The 10-year note is up 6 ticks, bringing its yield to 3.95% - still lower than early January levels...

Elsewhere, September Existing Sales just checked in at 6.75 mln (consensus of 6.54)... So far, little reaction from the equity market...SOX +1.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 966/1537, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1135/1293

[UpInArms]

43. 11:13 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,727.65 -30.16 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,908.14 -7.00 (-0.37%)
S&P 500 1,091.16 -4.58 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 3.962% -0.022

NYSE Volume 449,799,000
Nasdaq Volume 536,371,000

11:00AM: Major indices continue to improve as the indices show resilience at key resistance levels... As it stands now, the Dow and Nasdaq are close to breaching the unchanged mark for the first time today... The breadth figures, however, remain negative at the NYSE and Nasdaq and do not auger well for a permanent change in the tone of trading... Earnings have been - as a whole - relatively encouraging today although a few have disappointed...

Kimberly-Clark (KMB 60.39 -2.67) missed by a penny in its Q3 (Sept) report and guided in line for Q4 (Dec) and FY04 - the latter helped out by an increase in the FY04 share repurchase plan to $1.6 bln...NYSE Adv/Dec 1352/1535, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1272/1444

[KoKo]

49. Noon Numbers and "Zig Zagging Along......Zig Zaggin Along...

Dow 9,732.66 -25.15 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,908.55 -6.59 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,091.62 -4.12 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 3.955% -0.029
NYSE Volume 580,896,000
Nasdaq Volume 705,356,000

[54anickel]

37. Who Loses the Most at Marsh? Its Workers

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/24/business/yourmoney/24watch.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1098715617-+UrA4Eluz2xb8kRlhhx1og

CERTAIN things in life never change, of course, and one of the more unfortunate constants is that when corporations behave badly, their rank-and-file workers are hit hardest. Executives always seem to vanish from the accident scene, toting their munificent pay packages; ordinary workers are left with little or nothing.

Nowhere is this clearer than at Marsh & McLennan, the world's largest insurance brokerage concern and the subject of a lawsuit from Eliot Spitzer, the New York attorney general, that accuses the company of rigging bids to keep insurance costs high. The company's stock has cratered as investors have tried to assess the long-term implications of the investigation.

To be sure, Marsh executives have been hurt by the stock's descent: their options are for the moment unexercisable and the value of their bounteous stock awards has plummeted. But don't cry for Jeffrey W. Greenberg, Marsh's chief executive. Since he took that job in 1999, he has received $5.8 million in salary and $14.6 million in bonuses.

The biggest losers by far are the company's 60,000 workers around the world, many of whom were essentially pushed by the company to load up on Marsh shares. Most of these people, whose retirement accounts have been eviscerated, are probably guilty of nothing more than trying to do their jobs.

snip>

Why did workers put so many eggs in their company's basket? Until last year, Marsh stock was the sole investment option available to participants in this defined-contribution plan, except for those near retirement. And when the company decided to add mutual fund alternatives, it said its employees could switch out of only one-third of their Marsh stock holdings during a year.

more...

[UpInArms]

38. more Enronization in action

http://www.freep.com/money/business/enron19_20011219.htm

Enron retirees tell how they got wiped out

Senators introduce bill to limit 401(k) plans

December 19, 2001

BY KEN MORITSUGU
FREE PRESS WASHINGTON STAFF

WASHINGTON -- Retired employees and an elderly investor told a Senate panel Tuesday how they lost their life savings in the recent collapse of Enron Corp., as lawmakers began exploring ways to protect individual investors and employees who hold company stock in their 401(k) retirement accounts.

The plainspoken retirees explained to the Commerce Committee how their retirement funds had been devastated by the collapse of Enron's stock. From a peak of $90 a share, Enron closed Tuesday at 50 cents on the New York Stock Exchange.

"It may be too late for you to help me," said Janice Farmer, 61, a retired Enron employee in Orlando who said the worth of her Enron stock holdings shrank from $700,000 to $20,418. "It is not too late for you to take some action to make sure this does not happen to anyone else again."

Some retirement experts agree that many 401(k) holders have invested too heavily in their company's stock. Employees at firms that offer company stock as part of their retirement plans on average invest about 30 percent of their 401(k) savings in their company's stock, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based research group.

...more...

[54anickel]

39. Wall Street Jumps Into the Hedge-Fund Business

This is from the WSJ - saw the title "Wall Street Builds The 'Bionic' Hedge Fund" and just had to find out what it was about.

First, Wall Street launched its own mutual funds. Now, deep-pocketed securities firms are expanding into in-house hedge funds.

snip>

The highest-profile new hedge-fund laboratory is at Citigroup Inc., which just a few years ago had been cool to the prospect of trading with house money after some blowups on its main trading desks.

The New York banking behemoth has allocated as much as $2 billion, or about 1.6 billion euros, of capital to transform an existing vehicle called Tribeca Global Investments Ltd. into a flagship, multistrategy hedge fund for institutional clients and possibly high- net-worth individuals....

Tribeca isn't just any hedge fund. It won't take outside investors' money until it has built a track record over the next year or so with Citigroup's own cash, firm officials say. Once it raises money from the outside, Ms. Beder, Tribeca's chief executive, plans to expand the platform to between $10 billion and $20 billion. She says she is implementing as many as 50 different investment strategies so her traders can change tactics as markets evolve -- far more than the handful of strategies at a typical hedge fund. Citigroup will put an estimated $50 million into trading and risk-management infrastructure alone.

snip>

Other examples of new, Street-side hedge funds include a vehicle that Credit Suisse Group's Credit Suisse First Boston unit is launching to invest in assets of leveraged, or indebted, companies. It is raising money from outside investors and the firm declined to comment on the fund.

Deutsche Bank AG's DB Advisors unit, meanwhile, brought some of its best traders together last year to develop a variety of in-house hedge funds. Initially, some of the funds accepted client money along with Deutsche Bank's own money. In July, Deutsche Bank asked traders who want to take outsiders' money to depart the firm and start new funds with assets and assistance from the bank. Deutsche Bank continues to run internal hedge funds that use its own money, with the understanding that traders who perform well in such funds later may spin out and give the bank the right to invest in their new funds. Deutsche Bank recently announced a companywide reorganization and declined to comment on DB Advisors' plans.

The idea of home-grown hedge funds isn't entirely new. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. have had internal hedge funds for the past several years that they offer to certain clients. Such hedge funds usually are housed in asset-management divisions and are separate from "proprietary" trading units in stock- and bond- trading divisions.

But the scale of such platforms is much greater today. Pension funds, insurance companies and other financial institutions increasingly are choosing hedge funds as investments because they aim to make a steady return even if the markets fall, helping push hedge- fund assets under management beyond $800 billion.

[ozymandius]

41. 11:08 numbers

Dow 9,749.62 -8.19 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,912.70 -2.44 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,093.71 -2.03 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 3.957% -0.027
NYSE Volume 430,797,000
Nasdaq Volume 514,929,000

I have to dash out. Back in a few hours.

g'bye :hi:

[hang a left]

42. Heading back down

My Stocks

New Portfolio Stock News
Symbol Price Change
DOW 9,740.56 -17.25
NASDAQ 1,910.49 -4.65
S&P 500 1,092.70 -3.04
Get Quotes:
Market Screener Find Symbol
Last update 11:11 am ET
Indices: Real-Time Quotes: 20 Min Delay

[54anickel]

44. More Workers Ignoring Savings Benefits of 401(k)s

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-perfin24oct24,1,7206637.column?coll=la-headlines-business

A disturbing trend has emerged 30 years after the launch of the 401(k): Fewer employees are using them. It's been that long?

snip>

A recent survey by Fidelity Investments found that 66% of those eligible were saving through the plans, versus 68% a year ago. In the last six years, participation rates have fallen by nearly 10 percentage points, according to Fidelity, which as a plan administrator has a glimpse of what people do, rather than what they say.

snip>

Why are so many workers choosing not to take part? Some experts believe that investors are too worried about the stock market to contribute, even through an employer-sponsored plan. Some blame residual economic distress from the recession — previously unemployed and underemployed people feeling the need to catch up on bills before starting a savings plan.

Others believe that the financial scandals of the last few years may have taken a toll, particularly now that securities regulators are scrutinizing the fees within 401(k) plans. Finally, some speculate that the lower figures reflect a greater number of young people coming into the workforce — and they are less likely to save for retirement.

Nonetheless, a decision by employees not to participate is foolhardy, said Don Cassidy, senior research analyst with mutual fund research firm Lipper Inc. in Denver.

"Even the government is starting to break the veil of silence about the fact that Social Security is underfunded and what it might mean," Cassidy said.

"You can't rely on your employer to provide a pension; you may not get as much from Social Security as you might think. People have to save for themselves."

more...

Geez, this crap ticks me off. While the markets were doing well companies were robbing pensions for their own use. Now that nearly everyone sees a long-term bear heading our way we are suddenly "on our own". They have to get money into the markets somehow, but who has to take the risk now that the odds of coming out ahead are against them? Friggen BASTARDS!!!!!

[54anickel]

45. Can The U.S. Stock Market Crash Again?

http://www.forbes.com/home/markets/2004/10/25/cx_pk_1025mondaymatchup.html

A side by side comparison between Robert Prechter and Alfred Goldman. Too difficult to copy and paste from. It is a comparison of the two extremes. Here are the 2 outlooks they see, I had to at least copy this for a good chuckle from Golman's view. :evilgrin:

Outlook:
"The market has already completed a counter-trend rally, and the psychology of investors, advisers and economists is dangerously optimistic. The market is probably doing something more akin to what happened in 1835-1842 or 1929-1932 . According to my analysis, the bear market has already resumed, so the crash potential is significant."

Outlook:
"The economy is the strongest it has been in 20 years. The bear market that we had in February 2000 was the second worst since the Great Depression. We had a tremendous crash of the stock bubble, a collapse of telecom and Internet stocks. We had a recession, we had Sept. 11, war, accounting scandals, corporate malfeasance, mutual fund scandals, and it still didn't match the break of 1929. You come out stronger."

[54anickel]

48. 11:52 pre-lunch check

Dow 9,729.49 -28.32 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,907.45 -7.69 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,091.98 -3.76 (-0.34%)
10-yr Bond 3.959% -0.025
30-yr Bond 4.748% -0.013
NYSE Volume 557,935,000
Nasdaq Volume 679,055,000

1:30AM: Market continues to run in place under the flat line as buyers remain hesitant... Massive losses in Asia (Tokyo's Nikkei -1.8%) and Europe (France's CAC 40 -2.1%), combined with the news of approximately 50 US-trained Iraqi soldiers slain by insurgents, has made investors squeamish about opening new positions... The presidential race also remains stuck in a dead-heat, and that has also cast a pall over the proceedings... A clean outcome - without any recalls or charges of tainted ballots - would remove a large overhang to the market and would set the stage for a decisive move...NYSE Adv/Dec 1427/1555, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1314/1457
11:00AM: Major indices continue to improve as the indices show resilience at key resistance levels... As it stands now, the Dow and Nasdaq are close to breaching the unchanged mark for the first time today... The breadth figures, however, remain negative at the NYSE and Nasdaq and do not auger well for a permanent change in the tone of trading... Earnings have been - as a whole - relatively encouraging today although a few have disappointed...

Kimberly-Clark (KMB 60.39 -2.67) missed by a penny in its Q3 (Sept) report and guided in line for Q4 (Dec) and FY04 - the latter helped out by an increase in the FY04 share repurchase plan to $1.6 bln...NYSE Adv/Dec 1352/1535, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1272/1444

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1437 (44%) 1359 (45%)
Declines 1584 (49%) 1447 (48%)
Unchanged 188 (5%) 178 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 219 (42%) 341 (53%)
Down Vol* 283 (55%) 290 (45%)
Unch. Vol* 8 (1%) 6 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 66 44
New Lo's 52 59



Meanwhile the buck claws it's way up in desparation to get above 85 and more importantly 84.77, according to the INO blather anyway.

Last trade 85.04 Change -0.83 (-0.97%)

Settle 85.87 Settle Time 23:36

Open 85.13 Previous Close 85.87

High 85.65 Low 84.75

Volume 1,738

The December Dollar gapped down overnight and is trading sharply lower as it accelerates this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If this fall's decline continues, monthly support crossing at 84.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.86 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a weaker tone in early- day session trading.

The December Euro gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it accelerates this month's rally. Overnight strength has led to a breakout above weekly resistance crossing at 126.419. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of weekly resistance crossing at 129.190 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 125.184 would signal that December has posted a short-term top. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer tone in early-day session trading.

snip>

The December Canadian Dollar was sharply higher overnight as it extends last Friday's breakout above weekly resistance crossing at .8060. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 1991-2002 decline crossing at .8260 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8007 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The December Japanese Yen was sharply higher overnight and spiked above June's high crossing at .9420. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, a test of the 75% retracement level of this year's decline on the weekly chart crossing at .9463 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .9242 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer tone in early-day session trading.

[UpInArms]

50. CBOE Gold Index at 7-year high as gold tops $430

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38285.5068634259-824647574&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) climbed to a high of 96.14, its highest level since October 1997, after December gold futures peaked above $430 for the first time in almost seven months. The CBOE Gold Index was last at 95.61, up 2.7 percent. Leading the gains among the index components, shares of Idaho-based Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) are up 7 percent after CIBC World Markets upgraded the stock to "sector outperformer" from "sector performer."

[UpInArms]

60. Gold closes at 7-month high, a penny under $430

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38285.5763773148-824655001&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- December gold rose $4.30, or 1 percent, to close at $429.90 an ounce in New York -- the highest closing level for futures since early April. Prices were bolstered by a drop in the dollar for a ninth session against the euro to an eight-month low.

[54anickel]

64. You know, you'd really think it would have gone high than that the past

few trading days with all that's been going on with the buck. It's probably a good sign (for gold that is) that it hasn't gotten out of hand.

[BUSHOUT]

52. Sinclair down 1.3% ($.09) at 12:30

Die Sinclair, DIE!

[54anickel]

53. 1:16 and straight line UP

Dow 9,774.62 +16.81 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,919.83 +4.69 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,096.37 +0.63 (+0.06%)
10-yr Bond 3.953% -0.031
30-yr Bond 4.741% -0.02
NYSE Volume 777,081,000
Nasdaq Volume 929,003,000

1:00PM: Selling remains the name of the game although losses have yet to be hefty... The day's news items have simply possessed a negative tone, and that has provided few catalysts for buying... Investors remain worried about the shaky state of affairs in the Mideast, as well as the upcoming presidential election next Tuesday... One group that has been the beneficiary of this uncertainty, though, has been gold... The precious metal has advanced 1% to $438.20/oz - which is near a 15-year high - as investors use it as a safe haven investment...
The dollar's drop against the euro and Goldman Sachs' move to raise its gold price forecast to $420 from $400/oz in 2005, and to $400 from $350/oz in 2006, have also helped the commodity... Gold shares are thus some of the best performing stocks...NYSE Adv/Dec 1414/1719, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1342/1566

12:30PM: The market gave way to earlier lows around the top of the hour, but has since pared its losses somewhat... Still, the weak bias remains and has been reinforced by a greater ratio of down volume to up volume at the NYSE and Nasdaq... Sector leadership remains to the downside and only a few areas have posted notable moves... Airline (XAL +2.2%) has actually been one of those groups following Delta Airline's (DAL 3.45 +0.21) news that it and its pilots are nearing agreement on $1 bln in contract concessions...

The company previously said that it would have to file for bankruptcy as early as Wednesday if an agreement wasn't reached...NYSE Adv/Dec 1306/1776, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1335/1523

12:00PM: The market has been on the defensive all morning as overseas trading, crude oil news, currency trading, geopolitical developments, and earnings reports have all worked against the efforts of bulls...The morning's headlines have been overwhelmingly negative, and their influence has translated into the same negative tone from the past three weeks... Equities were first crushed in Asia (Tokyo's Nikkei -1.8%) - and then Europe (Germany's DAX -2.1%) - as traders reacted to another spike in the price of crude oil...

The commodity hit new records as Norway (the world's third largest exporter) dealt with the possibility of a strike... Crude oil has since come down off those highs - lower by 1% at $54.52/bbl - but the labor discord still suggests oil will remain at elevated prices... Following that, the dollar plunged for the 9th day in a row against the euro as talk of a US economic slowdown intensified... US stocks thus opened modestly lower and have remained that way despite choppy trading...Semiconductor was strong in the early going, but has since basically flattened... The early gains were attributable to a Smith Barney upgrade of 15 semiconductor stocks...

Most other industry group have seen moderate selling - banking, biotech, retail, drug, telecom service, and consumer staple leading the way lower... Consumer staple has been hurt by a Q3 (Sept) earnings miss from Kimberly-Clark (KMB 60.52 -2.54)... Airline, utility, basic material, and homebuilding have been some of the few areas to find buying interest... Homebuilding has been aided by a 3% rise in September Existing Home Sales - to 6.75 mln (consensus of 6.54 mln) - as mortgage rates have remained low...NYSE Adv/Dec 1407/1643, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1325/1492

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1497 (44%) 1461 (47%)
Declines 1646 (49%) 1469 (47%)
Unchanged 201 (6%) 175 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 301 (42%) 473 (54%)
Down Vol* 403 (56%) 386 (44%)
Unch. Vol* 12 (1%) 14 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 73 45
New Lo's 57 70

[UpInArms]

54. pushing the dollar back down

from its relative stability of 85.05 for the morning

now:

Last trade 84.91 Change -0.96 (-1.12%

gotta keep the lie going, no matter what it costs :grr:

[UpInArms]

56. 1:22 EST numbers are all in the black

Dow 9,774.62 +16.81 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,920.71 +5.57 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,095.87 +0.13 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 3.957% -0.027

NYSE Volume 796,326,000
Nasdaq Volume 951,382,000

[54anickel]

55. Contrary to the 1:00 headine U.S. stocks lower; earnings misses, weak $

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041025/68607786d72a901d16b50f197991f397_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks were modestly lower Monday as disappointing earnings news and a weak dollar offset a fall in the price of crude and gains in the chip sector following a bullish broker call from Smith Barney.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was down 20 points, or 0.2 percent, to 9,738 in midday trade, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) fell 7 points, or 0.3 percent, to 1,908 and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index (CBOE:^SPX - News) lost 4 points, or 0.4 percent, to 1,092.

"Oil not trading higher above $55 a barrel is getting investors less nervous on a daily basis today but when you throw in the negative earnings news and the surrounding concerns, you've got a moderate decline for stocks," said John Caldwell, chief investment strategist at McDonald Financial Group.

snip>

Although Caldwell said the numbers and lowered outlooks weren't "a huge deal," he believes they are disconcerting for a market that has grown accustomed to 20 percent-plus earnings growth rates over the last four quarters.

"There's some underlying disconnect between still solid fundamentals -- 15 percent-plus earnings growth as it looks like for the third quarter -- and yet the market is down during this earnings season," Caldwell said.

"That doesn't quite link up in our view and I think there are some bubbling uncertainties there that are keeping investors on the sidelines for whatever reason."

[UpInArms]

57. China trade volume to reach $1.1trillion in 2004

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-10/25/content_2137441.htm

HANGZHOU, Oct. 25 (Xinhuanet) -- China's total trade volume will reach 1.1 trillion US dollars in 2004 -- up 30 percent over 2003 --with a trade surplus of about 10 billion US dollars, said Assistant Minister of Commerce Yi Xiaozhun.

China still faces difficult challenges in its efforts to maintain the sustainable development of foreign trade, mainly due to ever-changing international environment and lingering in-depth problems with its foreign trade, Yi said Sunday while addressing a conference on the promotion of exports from private companies.

The most eminent problem next year will be trade friction in textiles exports following the unification of the global textile market, Yi noted.

According to its agreement with the World Trade Organization, China's passive quota of textiles will be abolished on Jan. 1, 2005. Strong competition from China's textile industry has aroused concern from both developing and developed nations. The United States and the European Union have repeatedly asked China to slow down its soaring textile industry.

Extensive growth is another major hindrance to the sound growth of China's foreign trade, Yi acknowledged, as is the lack of its own brands and intellectual property, especially the intellectual property of core technology.

...more...

[UpInArms]

58. Testimony wraps up in Enron trial

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2865138

Testimony ended this morning in the first Enron criminal trial.

The jurors were sent home but are scheduled to come back Tuesday morning to hear final arguments, which are expected to stretch into Wednesday.

U.S. District Judge Ewing Werlein and the lawyers will work this afternoon on the wording of the law to be given the jurors to consider in their deliberations.

Lawyers for each of the six defendants want an hour to argue, though the judge may hold them to 45 minutes each. The prosecution will be given equal time.

The case is about a relatively small deal in the world of high finance: Enron's hand-off of an interest in Nigerian barges to Merrill Lynch in 1999. Two former Enron employees and four former Merrill Lynch bankers are accused of conspiring to fake a sale of the barges so Enron could meet profit goals that generated bonuses for Enron executives. The defendants say there was no secret guarantee that someone would buy back the barges from Merrill within six months at a locked-in profit.

The case is being watched on two fronts.

Its important to Wall Street because of the four former bankers on trial. It's also the first test of Enron prosecutors' theories about wrongdoing at the once-respected energy trader.

...more...

[54anickel]

59. Still blowing bubbles - 75 years on from Great Crash

Free registration or use bugmenot.com

Edit to add the link - DOH!
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/business.cfm?id=1232682004&20041025183406

snip>

History has treated the Crash as a freak and singular event, unique to itself and highly unlikely to be repeated.

But it scarred investors for more than a generation.

It was not until the 1970s that stock ownership was again to develop a mass following.

Yet time and again the US market has been hit by freak "never-to-be-repeated" shocks in defiance of the notion of "the tamed beast".

There was a 45% fall between 1973 and 1976. There was the fall of 36% in just two months in 1987. And there was the 37.8% fall with the bursting of the internet bubble between 2000 and 2002.

The market has yet to reach its pre-bubble peak.

So much for the notion that government intervention and regulation has made markets much less volatile.

Today, in a major reappraisal by mathematicians and actuaries, we are now discovering that equity markets are inherently more risky than millions of us were led to believe in the long boom years of the 1980s and 1990s.

much more, friggen single sentence paragraphs!

[UpInArms]

61. Dollar may fall regardless of election

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8BDAD143%2DB143%2D4EB3%2D908A%2D8919E00BBB09%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The U.S. dollar is likely to lose value regardless of who secures the White House in next week's election.

Uncertainty is breeding a cautious tone among investors and the dollar's path of least resistance is down, say currency analysts.

The dollar was trading at an eight-month low against the euro and a six-month low against the yen to start the week.

Both the Republican incumbent George Bush and Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry have at times played against type on issues that influence currency markets. What's more, the Nov. 2 contest looks like another nail-biter. See our election coverage.

The gargantuan task of reversing record budget and trade deficits, the candidates' varying degrees of pressure on China to devalue its currency, and the economy's false starts and lukewarm job creation add to uncertainty for the currency market. These factors generally point to a weaker buck.

...more...

[UpInArms]

62. just 'cause I really want the rest of this article

read - I'm adding a snippet here:

It was, after all, a Bush administration-led agreement among Group of Seven officials urging more exchange-rate flexibility that ultimately sank the dollar to multiyear lows earlier this year. That official position signaled to currency markets that the United States would not stand in the way of a depreciating dollar.

The greenback was trading around 115 yen when Bush took office in early 2001. As global investors sweated the sustainability of the U.S. current account imbalance, the dollar sank to a 3 1/2 low below 105 yen in March; it currently trades below 107 yen.

The euro bought just 95 U.S. cents as Bush was sworn in. It peaked at an all-time high above $1.28 in February. The euro had been locked in a range near $1.24 for much of the summer as prospects for rising U.S. interest rates put the dollar in a more favorable light while eurozone interest rates have essentially stalled. But rising oil price concerns have rekindled pressure on the dollar and allowed the euro to move above $1.27 this week.

[Chicago Democrat]

66. A weak dollar does tend to make US goods cheaper

and that will help. The problem is that we don't really make much anymore. Land of shop keepers.

[htuttle]

67. Unless the US goods are made from imported parts!

Considering the small amount of manufacturing still left in the US, much of it is final assembly of parts made overseas. As the dollar collapses, they will need to raise prices to pay for the components the products are made of.

[UpInArms]

69. then you also have to consider

that if foreign corporations own the factories here (think Mitsubitchie, Nissan, etc) profits go back to the country of that corporation, not the US - all we do here is collect an hourly wage for services and labor.

[UpInArms]

63. 2:11 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,761.35 +3.54 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,915.35 +0.21 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,095.61 -0.13 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 3.970% -0.014

NYSE Volume 915,143,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,102,748,000

2:00 ET Dow +13, Nasdaq +3, S&P +0.12
Stocks continue to trade at improved levels although the recent recovery effort seems to have stalled... Breadth figures have not turned convincingly positive and several influential sectors - such as financial and retail - continue to register large losses... Given the short-lived nature of the uptick, more buyers have been reluctant to come on board... EDS (EDS 20.02 +0.27) and Flextronics (FLEX 12.66 +0.08) report after the close and represent some of the last big companies to deliver September quarter earnings... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1744/1432. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1608/1354.

1:30PM: For the first time this session, the major indices stage a breakout and cross into positive territory... Short covering following what was a fairly resilient morning session (market never gave back much) has likely been the culprit behind the reversal... The market has been on a downward trek since the beginning of the month - reaching a nadir of sorts with the Dow's new low for the year on Friday - and thus traders have placed bets on further selling action... When that failed to materialize in mass this morning, traders rushed to cover their positions...

It is hard to say, however, how long this correction will hold... The major indices have already begun to back off their highs... NYSE Adv/Dec 1681/1482, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1651/1290

[54anickel]

65. What if you held a sucker's rally, but nobody came? - Bwahahaha

That's sort of what the blather reads like to me. :evilgrin:

I've got to run for the day. Have fun watching for the close today everyone. Please be sure to keep posting any more interesting tidbits so I can catch up with the market news later this evening.

:hi:

[amandabeech]

71. With all the red ink today in Asia and Europe,

and the tanking dollar, I'm surprised that the U.S. market didn't take a dive as well, despite oil and housing starts.

Does anyone have any suspicion that the plunge protection team, or pro-Bush investors in general, will prevent any serious downside movement until Nov. 3?

[UpInArms]

68. 3:17 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,761.35 +3.54 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,914.39 -0.75 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,095.74 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 3.970% -0.014

NYSE Volume 1,118,271,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,318,757,000

hold the course today with questions lingering about crude oil, economic growth, earnings, and the state of Iraq... Corporate accountability also remains a concern, and is highlighted by the recent resignation of Marsh McLennan (MMC 26.44 -0.35) CEO/Chairman Jeffrey Greenberg... Speculation of such a resignation has swirled since Eliot Spitzer accused the company of rigging bids for corporate clients' insurance contracts in a lawsuit dated October 14...

Greenberg will be succeeded by newly named head of Marsh's insurance-brokerage unit, Michael Cherkasky...NYSE Adv/Dec 1765/1468, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1556/1451

2:30PM: Major indices fall back below the unchanged mark as conviction - as measured by market internals, sector participation, and volume - remains weak on the part of buyers... Only 12 out of the Dow's 30 components have attracted buying interest as most stocks continue to experience slight losses... Enjoying some contrarian activity today, however, has been AIG (AIG 56.20 +1.50) - the top stock on the Dow... Management has instructed its counsel to reach a prompt settlement of SEC and Dept of Justice issues, and the stock was upgraded by Deutsche Bank by Buy from Hold due to valuation.... NYSE Adv/Dec 1787/1425, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1587/1389

[UpInArms]

70. Carlyle and China

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/10/24/bloomberg/sxshenzhen.html

Newbridge Approved for China Bank Stake

SHANGHAI Newbridge Capital, a San Francisco-based buyout company, won approval from China's state assets regulator to buy 18 percent of Shenzhen Development Bank, the Chinese lender said Sunday.

The approval of the purchase cleared the last hurdle for Newbridge to become the first overseas investor to control a Chinese lender.

The U.S. investment fund received permission from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to buy the stake from four government shareholders, Shenzhen Bank said in a statement to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The transaction was also approved by China's banking regulator on Sept. 22.

The U.S. fund, which is controlled by David Bonderman, James Coulter, William Price and Richard Blum, agreed to pay 1.2 billion yuan, or $145 million, to buy 348.1 million non-tradable shares from the Chinese shareholders, making it the biggest single shareholder. The agreement was signed May 29.

<snip>

Softbank of Japan, Carlyle Group, Warburg Pincus and other buyout and venture-capital firms are betting on higher returns in China as local companies increase profits and sell shares overseas.

Private-equity inflows into China jumped fivefold to $1.2 billion in the first half of 2004 from a year earlier, according to Asian Venture Capital Journal, which tracks the industry. About 520 private-equity funds have investments in China, up from 300 at the end of 2002, according to the Hong Kong-based magazine.

Eight Chinese companies with overseas private-equity investors sold shares in New York or Hong Kong from January to August - and seven reported first-half profit gains of at least 25 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

...more...

(edited because something went wrong on my "paste")

[54anickel]

72. For the record, here's the closing info (Look at the poor buck)

Dow 9,749.99 -7.82 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,914.04 -1.10 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,094.80 -0.94 (-0.09%)
10-yr Bond 3.972% -0.012
30-yr Bond 4.754% -0.007
NYSE Volume 1,377,640,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,613,553,000

Close: The major indices never could never get off the ground today as traders remained preoccupied with disturbing geopolitical developments, earnings reports, and currency trends... The dollar fell for its 9th day in a row - marking its longest drop since 2000 - as another record high for crude oil (reached in pre-market trading) suggested a slowdown to the US economy's growth rate... The Asian (Tokyo's Nikkei -1.8%) and European (France's CAC 40 -2.1%) indices sold off hardily due in part to this, and laid the groundwork for the US market's lower open...
Stocks traded in choppy fashion as conviction - as evidenced by the low volume totals - remained weak among traders... Worries about the impending Presidential election and the state of the Mideast (i.e. an ambush Saturday evening that killed 50 Iraqi troops) also kept buying interest in check... Banking, biotech, retail, telecom service, and household product all pressured the market to the downside - the latter due to a Q3 (Sept) earnings miss from Kimberly-Clark (KMB 59.03 -4.03)... Transportation, utility, and homebuilding, however, showed relative strength as it benefited from sector-specific developments...

Delta (DAL 3.78 +0.54) commented that it was near reaching a deal with its pilots union for $1 bln in concessions, TXU Corp (TXU 61.25 +8.44) raised its FY04/FY05 EPS outlooks and quarterly dividend, and September Existing Home Sales crept higher by 6% to 6.75 mln (consensus of 6.54 mln)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1722/1564, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1667/1400

3:35PM : Indices continue to sport slight losses in what has been a quiet day of trade... The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have traded in tight ranges of 68, 14, and 6 points, respectively, as momentum has waned on the part of bulls... Biotech, oil service, retail, telecom, and software have continued to post moderate losses, and have offset gains seen in airline, homebuilding, utility, and basic material... Utility itself has been strong off of TXU Corp's (TXU 60.08 +7.27) raised FY04 and FY05 EPS outlooks and increased quarterly dividend...NYSE Adv/Dec 1727/1517, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1578/1454

3:00PM : Mixed market going into the last hour of regular session trading... Investors have preferred to hold the course today with questions lingering about crude oil, economic growth, earnings, and the state of Iraq... Corporate accountability also remains a concern, and is highlighted by the recent resignation of Marsh McLennan (MMC 26.44 -0.35) CEO/Chairman Jeffrey Greenberg... Speculation of such a resignation has swirled since Eliot Spitzer accused the company of rigging bids for corporate clients' insurance contracts in a lawsuit dated October 14...

Greenberg will be succeeded by newly named head of Marsh's insurance-brokerage unit, Michael Cherkasky...NYSE Adv/Dec 1765/1468, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1556/1451

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1722 (49%) 1667 (51%)
Declines 1564 (45%) 1400 (43%)
Unchanged 177 (5%) 176 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 664 (48%) 870 (53%)
Down Vol* 699 (50%) 711 (44%)
Unch. Vol* 17 (1%) 33 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 100 62
New Lo's 63 86


US Dollar avoiding 84.77 like the plague!

Last trade 84.87 Change -0.91 (-1.06%)

Settle 84.97 Settle Time 21:36

Open 84.91 Previous Close 85.87

High 85.11 Low 84.83