WaPost: Kerry 49 Bush 48!

[milkyway]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

[JohnnyCougar]

1. Booyah!!

[RamboLiberal]

2. Yes - Unless Rove has Osama hidden for Oct Surprise

Bushie is going nowhere but back to Crawford!

[papau]

3. It appears the WashPO found a trend! - using historical Dem % of the vote

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 48 49 1 * 1 0 1
10/23/04 49 48 1 * 1 * 2
10/22/04 50 46 1 * 1 * 2
10/21/04 50 46 1 * * * 2
10/20/04 51 45 1 * 1 * 2

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 46 48 2 * 1 * 2
10/23/04 49 46 1 * 1 * 3
10/22/04 50 45 2 * 1 * 3
10/21/04 50 44 1 * 1 * 3
10/20/04 51 44 1 * 1 1 3

Right Wrong No
direction track opin.
10/24/04 LV 41 55 4
10/23/04 LV 43 54 4
10/22/04 LV 44 52 4


The tracking poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day. The Post adjusts, or "weights," each day's randomly selected samples of adults to match the voting-age population percentages by age, sex, race, and education, as reported by the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The Post also adjusts the percentages of self-identified Democrats and Republicans by partially weighting to bring the percentages of those groups to within three percentage points of their proportion of the electorate, as measured by national exit polls of voters in the last three presidential elections.


10/25: 1,631 likely voters; 2,079 self-identified registered voters Oct. 21-24.

10/24: 1,638 likely voters; 2,085 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-23.

10/23: 1,222 likely voters; 1,575 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-22.

10/22: 1,238 likely voters; 1,592 self-identified registered voters Oct. 19-21.

10/21: 1,260 likely voters; 1,590 self-identified registered voters Oct. 18-20.

10/20: 1,248 likely voters; 1,586 self-identified registered voters Oct. 17-19.

10/19: 1,237 likely voters; 1,593 self-identified registered voters Oct. 16-18.

10/18: 1,656 likely voters; 2,130 self-identified registered voters Oct. 14-17.

10/17: 1,648 likely voters; 2,115 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-16.

10/16: 1,203 likely voters; 1,574 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-15.

[Flint-oid]

BigMo: Rasmussen has Kerry up 2; WaPost has Kerry up 1.

[maddezmom]

13. Kerry Ahead of Bush by One Point -ABC Poll

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&ncid=584&e=4&u=/nm/20041025/pl_nm/campaign_poll_abc_dc

[milkyway]

4. I know one tracking poll doesn't mean much, but that's two today

(along with Rasmussen). And the horrible news from Iraq about the massacre and missing explosives aren't included yet.

Whoever is seen as leading in the polls going into election day will be in a better position if the election is disputed. It helped bush immensely in 2000 that he was perceived as the winner and Gore was trying to take it from him.

[lancdem]

9. And I don't think Kerry has been ahead in two tracking polls

on the same day until today. BTW, Zogby should get interesting in the next couple of days. He said Bush was up 3 on Friday and 7 on Saturday, which means Kerry was up 1 yesterday. Bush's good days will be dropping out of the sample.

[milkyway]

10. Good point. Kerry is proving to be a great closer again. Going into

election day, Kerry will be seen as the favorite by even the mainstream media.

[Beetwasher]

5. And I'm Sure They Oversampled Repubs, So Those Numbers Are

Even more encouraging!

[maddezmom]

6. Oh happyday, Oh happy day!!!!

[West Coast Democrat]

7. In 2000, Gore never led in this poll (ABC News/Wa Post)

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

[milkyway]

8. The killer question for bush: 33. Do you think things in this country

(are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?

Right Wrong No
direction track opin.
10/24/04 LV 41 55 4
10/23/04 LV 43 54 4
10/22/04 LV 44 52 4
4/18/04 42 57 1
4/30/03 52 46 2
9/26/02 43 53 4
2/21/02 54 42 4
2/14/99 55 41 4

This spells landslide for Kerry. After spending hundreds of millions of dollars, bush still has not been able to make his case. And the horrible massacre and missing explosives have yet to be factored in, nor the appearance of the Big Dog.

[durablend]

11. That right track/wrong track polling always bothers me...

Those that say the country is on the wrong track has been significantly higher than *'s approval rating for ages, yet obviously some of those boobs will still vote for him.

NEWSFLASH FOR YOU IDIOTS: THINGS AIN'T GONNA CHANGE WITH "MORE OF THE SAME"

[David__77]

12. Many polls are showing up to an 8-point gap: more GOPers than Democrats.

I don't believe that's the case at all. We will see, but I tend to think that there's something else at work here with these Gallup polls and so forth.

[struggle4progress]

14. yippie!

:hippie:

[ruggerson]

15. the tracking polls are generally more accurate than Gallup or Newsweek

[NeoConsSuck]

16. I was going to say the same thing..

I'm sure this took a lot of air out of the CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll. BTW, wasn't the Gallup pool predicting a big Bush victory just days before the 2000 election? And what happened? Gore won the popular vote, and lost in the final round to the supreme court.